Feb 22 Review

/181 Comments/in /by

We’ve only seen one day of trading after a 3 day weekend in the U.S., so this report will just be a brief review of the markets and a few of the trade ideas discussed recently.

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SPX – Nothing has changed here, we are seeing a strong move into new highs with no real resistance, I have targeted 2400 since the break out. It is getting quite over bougt and over heated.

 

This is a review of only 1 day of trading since the weekend report, so  you can go back to the weekend report if you forget what the expectations were.

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USD – Expectations are for the USD to roll over around this 101.50 to 101.75 area.

USD – Please read the chart. I have been calling for a roll over at this price for weeks, I would love to see that today.

 

WTIC – Yes, it is still ignoring all the calls for a crash  ( Due to tthe C.O.T. Smart Money Short positions). Oil has gone sideways but even attempted to break out Tuesday.  I am not trading Oil in this sideways move ( thankfully!).

NATGAS – I called for this weakness weeks ago with a H&S pattern. It continues to break down and I’m also not trading NATGAS at this point. We have not seen a sign of strength.

 

GOLD – From the weekend report.  Gold is at a resistance point. I really want to see the USD roll over and push Gold through this area.

GOLD – I had this for the weekend report, but I didn’t post it . I do not want to see this 2 month trend line break ( Lets say Gold 1215ish), because it could signal that Gold is beginning more of a major decline. A drop to the line is fine.

GOLD – The smaller daily cycle trend line held on Tuesday. Gold sold off with the USD rising, and even though the USD held up, Gold reversed and closed only down $0.20

 

From a report a week ago, this chart simply shows that GOLD & The Miners can bounce around and go sideways for weeks, frustrating shorter term traders expecting a break higher every day. Sometimes it is good to see this again and again and again. See the blue box. We may be experiencing that now.

 

SILVER – Holding up well with the USD rising. Silver closed above the 200sma.

GDX – Miners also dropped at the rise of the USD, and then they reversed during the day , though the USD held up. GDX has lost the 200sma so far.

GDXJ – The same drop happened with Junior Miners, but I do want to see a rally soon. I want to see  new high on this consolidation.  We’ve had a nice solid run from December to now, but a break below the 200 sma would be concerning to me.

CDE – This is a bullish engulfing and traders will usually buy this with a stop below the days lows. I’m not saying that you have to buy this, I am just pointing it out because when CDE dropped, I got a LOT of emails asking me if they could buy that 1 day slam down. ” Was that a capitulation low?”  I said, “No, the chart is broken and needs time to repair, wait for a sign of strength.”  This is at least a bullish engulfing and could be the start of a low in place.

 

We discussed SOLAR Stocks and the sector as possibly shaping up.  I purposely mentioned SOL & YGE, but didn’t include their charts , because they were not showing me anything bullish, except for a base.   Yesterday they also popped, so here are their charts. Many stocks that we mentioned here continued higher ( See charts of JASO, ENPH, TSL, JKS, CSIQ, FSLR, etc if interested)

 

You may recall that last week I chose 2 picks of MJ stocks that were low risk buys ( My point was not  to have to chase ones that were already up 50% above their consolidations).  These were good looking set ups, and likely ready to run higher.  Those 2 were  NWGFF and GBLX (  I also own CNAB comparing it to CNBX–  Basically Saying that it could run in a similar manner, so get in before it gets too high, because CNBX is a rocket ship.   Let’s review. ).

 

NWGFF – It continues acting correctly, up over 20% at one point yesterday. The potential on these set ups is big, you will see with CNBX.

GBLX – Also up over 20% at one point.

CNAB –  Also up over 20% yesterday,  this is the one that looks a lot like CNBX in my eyes. No guarantee that they will run the same manner, but have you seen CNBX?  Let’s review.

CNBX – This is CNBX on Jan 31. Does this look almost exactly like the chart of CNAB above to anyone else but me?  I have been pointing this out since I bought CNAB before the break out.  COMPARE THE ABOVE CHART OF CNAB WITH THIS CHART. Almost twin set ups.

CNBX 3 weeks later-  And when this broke above the Nov highs, it just took off without resistance.  I have seen a few other MJ stocks do this very thing.  Will CNAB do that? No guarantees, but the set up is very similar in my eyes. CNBX dropped sharply 2 times before it took off at this point. If CNAB drops, I may even add to my position.

I WOULD NEVER CHASE & BUY THESE once they get extended, that is why I am looking for similar set ups, int he same sector, at a low risk entry.  That is why I recommended NWGFF and GBLX .  They were at their recent consolidation lows and also similar set ups to the CNBX set up.

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Also mentioned was IPI and the mini bull flag.

 

 

IPI broke out yesterday, and it has good potential. I was told that earnings are to be released soon, so be aware of that.  This set up has great upside potential.

IPI –  As shown in the weekly chart

Obviously we haven’t seen a lot of change since the weekend report. Enjoy your Wednesday trading.

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~ALEX

181 replies
  1. Cason
    Cason says:

    One EW guy that I follow occasionally is showing S&P in Wave 3 of 3 – Intermediate 3 of Major 3 (Of Primary 5). Which would explain the uber bullishness and sentiment. A wave 4 pullback is due up very soon but should be shallow compared to recent market advances and a chance to go long for wave 5. Eventually, at some point the music will stop like it did for NAK, but that’s not here yet. Hoping that a light market pullback may give gold the juice it needs to broke out of this painful consolidation (it’s killing me! Ugh!).

  2. zig-zag
    zig-zag says:

    Thanks Alex.
    GDXJ the last up move was from 36.08 to 43.01;
    A 62% retrace brings it down to 38.71 right near 38.91 the 200 dsma.
    Monthly and weekly charts on GDXJ still look good.
    Love to see it reverse today!

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Hey Zig

      I agree- The run in GDXJ looks great, and the monthly swing low is in place. The weekly charts look like they are holding up well.
      For me, Daily reports get boring to write in sideways moves, and some people get anxious quicker than others, so I’d like to see a break higher for that reason too.

  4. deshy
    deshy says:

    I love the MJ picks but my (cdn) platform does not let me put stop losses on OTC stocks. Given I work in the day it seems a bit too risky to go in with no net below. Anyone else have these issues? Too bad:-(

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Hmmmm, I dont even know if I can use stops or not. I’m not buying huge amounts, so I just use mental stops ( but that involves being in front of the screen most of the days). It is not money that I cant afford to lose. Good question for when they run higher though and the gains get good. I may ant a hard stop in place then

      Let me discuss 2 idea of many , when trading these.

      1. Buy a small amount using recent profits from another trade that you can now feel that you could afford to lose. For example: Maybe some NAK profits , if one was in that trade from last summer. You would have bought maybe 5,000 shares of NWGFF at 12 cents . Let it ride, willing to lose whatever- hoping that it flies like many others are. Good base set up.

      or

      2. Say one had a $20,000 as their account for the sake of discussion. Using 10 % OR LESS for a possible longer term investment would be $2000, and maybe it’d be just buying 3 stocks at $600 each ( $1800).

      With a stock at 10 cents a share, it is 6000 shares. If it doubles, cash out with $600 profit. If it just keeps consolidating, maybe the other 2 will rise and offset it. If it flies to $1, $2, or whatever – like many of these crazy CNBX, OWCP, NDEV, etc …You can cash out and the other investments are free money. You can just let them ride.
      6000 shares hitting $1 is $6000. 6000 shares then hitting $2 is $12, 000 – so it was a long term investment that could pay off.

      That is just 1 or 2 ways of looking at the sector, and the only reason I do look at it as a possible longer term hold is that the legalization of the products seems to have ignited a bull market. Some will just rally for being in that sector ( Sympathy gains) and they may die later ( no product development or the competition is too good). Others may go fro 5 – 10 cents today, to $15- $20 in a few years. A small investment now $500- could be a huge 1000- 20,000 % gainer over time. Only time will tell for sure.

  5. zig-zag
    zig-zag says:

    Sure this will be hard to follow, but here it goes……
    GDXJ from an EW perspective.
    Off of the 27.37 low we have a wave one up to 38, then a wave two low at 36.08, this projects a wave three at 53.30.
    Within this wave 3 looks like we have a minor wave 1 up from 36.08 to 43.01 and possibly the minor wave 2 done at 39.82 yesterday (if not maybe down to 38.91 (200 dsma). which matches Maria’s 1-2, I-ii, comment yesterday.
    The neat thing is if I project out from minor wave 1, I get a target for wave 3 at 53.70 which is just about the same as the projection from wave 1 (53.30).
    So………if we have tagged the recent low at 39.82 or even go to 38.91, I believe minor wave 3 goes to $51 and then we have a minor wave 4 correction to around 46.77 and then complete wave 3 at 53 ish.
    GLTA

  7. Ann
    Ann says:

    I am not an Elliott wave expert, but aren’t we at about the .618 retrace of the low to high in NAK here premarket at 1.50?

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Yes, but I still wait and watch how things play out going forward. When a stock chart gets broken ( Like CDE) even if the company is good, I usually see it bounce and sell off again and jump around trying to build a base or stabilize.

      I personally move on for a while. The trading in that stock can become a bit frustrating, and I say to myself, ” There is always another trade.” I go and find ithat other trade, and just monitor NAK or CDE until I feel that the time is right.

    • Conrad
      Conrad says:

      Can’t trade OTC on TD platform where I live. Pity! So I took small positions in Canopy Growth and Insy Therapeutics instead – much slower moving but I am in the sector.

      • deshy
        deshy says:

        Take a look at Aphria (APH.V) It’s on the TSX Venture but it just got conditional approval to move to TSX. Also did a bought deal at $5 18days ago and never blinked…finally, it’s all ready generating profits and has a cost base for GOS well below its competitors. [Full disclosure: I am long APH.V]

      • Daz Clark
        Daz Clark says:

        Hey Conrad, I don’t know where your at but in the UK TD allows OTC trade’s over the phone. Might be of help? good luck.

          • Conrad
            Conrad says:

            Thanks Maria. But we have some strange online trading regulations here. Lots of online platforms not allowed trade here. I’ll keep checking.

        • Conrad
          Conrad says:

          Cheers Daz. I’m in Ireland so I’ll check again if TD will allow here. Last time I checked it wasn’t possible.

  11. MariaVacationTrader
    MariaVacationTrader says:

    am i crazy… or are the MJ stocks in same count as some miners…. w/ cnbx leading & already in 3 of iii ….

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        Just an observation from me:
        Once these run up as they have and top, they can drop just as quickly and consolidate, so I would be careful. They have a tendancy to make their ways down to the 50sma at times, and look where those are.
        Take a look back at what happened in November – great rallies higher but eventually they top and consolidate.

    • Erik Sven
      Erik Sven says:

      My gain on MNTR is more than I got on NAK. Its crazy. Waiting for my trailing stop to take me out now. This is my only position now….

  15. Rm
    Rm says:

    Alex- at what point do we get concerned about a left translated cycle in gdx? The bullish setups have not been able to trigger this cycle.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I dont really like what I see overall, it is more of a gut feeling.

      The Minutes release could reverse things and break us out to the upside, but right now I dont like the look of certain things. Some individual miners look good, others do not.

      I just sold TRX because it was rejected at the 10sma this morning and then proceeded to start losing the 50sma. Can it recover with Fed minutes and a gold burst higher? Absolutely – yes. I will rebuy if it does.
      Right now I dont like some things.

      • MariaVacationTrader
        MariaVacationTrader says:

        damn.. i was lookn at that this morning… i told it …better get it’s act together or im trading it in for sum mj..pullbacks…

      • pankef
        pankef says:

        The warning signs have been there for a couple of weeks; I noted a few days ago that maybe the market was trying to tell us something and stocks like NAK and CDE were not some conspiracy against “us”

      • ray
        ray says:

        fwiw
        got a graph showing a 2 abc move down almost completed 23.63 should be the max and is 161.8 retracement
        onN GDX

      • deshy
        deshy says:

        Alex, thx for the heads up on this one. Sold earlier in the day and seems it just fell out of bed on some good volume!

    • zig-zag
      zig-zag says:

      If you look at a 6 month chart it looks like we are trying to form a right shoulder on an inverse head and shoulders pattern.
      KGC shows it even more clearly than GDX.
      Lots of miners look similar

  16. Ken
    Ken says:

    GDX:
    I am still of the mind set that a DCL will be due in early March (too early currently) …..I do Not think we will want 22.78 broken….. imo.
    Sure looks like a corrective wave GDX is currently in……
    2:00 pm will be a tell ?

    • deshy
      deshy says:

      I don’t have a horse in this either way, but personally I never understood these types of actions (other than fee for counsel). Isn’t that part of the risk of investing/trading? Moreover, if this is completely offside shouldn’t that mean that anyone who made profits off the ‘scam’ should also return those monies? [btw: just to be clear–I’m not offering up my take :-)]

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      The lawyers come out of the woodwork in cases like this…there are more than just this one.

      Look up NEWS under NAK and you’ll find probably 5 -8 law firms trying to cash in.

      They take it to court with shareholders all signing up saying they lost $1 / share. The case drags on for 3 years, and eventually either gets thrown out or a pay off, and the lawyers take the bigger share for all of their time, and the share holders get 10 cents a share 4 years later 🙂

      Been there, done that. Seriously, I have. The one I signed up for was one where they exaggerated earnings. Seemed like a cut & dry case. Several years later I got a check for $10 or so 🙂

      • The Seer
        The Seer says:

        OH gosh . . . .
        There was a start up early 2000’s that turned out to be a scam. Shareholders sued and
        a bankruptcy trustee was assigned. Turned out the Trustee just wanted easy assets to
        cash in and charge as much of his fees as he could and total disregard for the shareholders.
        Crooked everywhere . . . My ex lost $17,000 and a head shareholder lost $250,000+ in stock
        and attorney fees in the end had to walk away . . . . I gave info to the SEC and FBI and they could care less
        as it was only a $20 million rip off scam. You have to have at least a $100 million scam for them
        to look into it . . . Was able to block the scam teams attempt to get a penny stock listing though – so that

        was a win . . . .

  18. Carlnetscouts
    Carlnetscouts says:

    So IMO in the miners we hit a high around 2/8 and are in an month or so correction. We should hit a low soon, if not already, then a short mover higher to about March 1 then final move down to about Mid-March. I’m going to see a little more, options, 3x etfs and a few other positions if we get a few up days soon. After this correction I think we get a stronger up move. JMO but what it feels like to me.

  19. zig-zag
    zig-zag says:

    As a newbie, what is the best way to attach charts from Stock Charts.
    Under share I have facebook, email, tumblr, twitter…..
    Would any of these work?

  20. Tammie
    Tammie says:

    Anyone follow MJ stocks….AGSTF symbol has changed to FFRMF today….kind of confusing this morning looking at stuff….I think it might be forming another flag…but….due diligence….:)

  21. Tammie
    Tammie says:

    Another MJ….ACBFF…3 month consolidation…could be ready to move…? popped a tad this morning and has pulled back a bit…….don’t listen to me though….due diligence…..just tossing out possibilities…

  22. The Seer
    The Seer says:

    India ban on cash withdrawals ends March 13, US debt ceiling March 15, Geert Wilder – Netherlands vote March 15
    Metal should start rising . . . . in March . . . .

  23. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    I’m lightening up on Miners until I see what the Fed Minutes will do. The FED can turn things around quickly to the upside, but I have to leave my desk for a while and want to lock in some gains and get back in later if the Fed Release is bullish.

    Sold TRX, PLG, and all JNUG early this morning.

  24. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    WHOA on CNBX – Could go all the way down to $2 from here.
    This is again why I dont chase them, I look for the next ones to rally – and even those may need to be on a tight leash

    • The Seer
      The Seer says:

      wow -guess the computer algo black box guys are getting lazy just copying
      former pattern software forward these days . . .

    • pankef
      pankef says:

      There are several in that category, (AUY comes to mind). These are stocks that exhibited anemic advances off of the recent lows and are subject to breaking those lows during the current correction. They may be great buys later on, bit for now they represent high risk IMO

  27. marinho
    marinho says:

    unless there is a change after 2pm this could be the 2nd daily cycle breaking as it does in the bear markets

  28. Tammie
    Tammie says:

    Nancy…I think you got AGTK yesterday? I might be bailing on mine…..not sure I like the way it’s acting….too many others that have been better….

    • Glmus
      Glmus says:

      Fed minutes: ‘Many’ on Fed back interest-rate hike ‘fairly soon’
      I got many hourly buys out of nowhere about 5 minutes ago. I guess golds like the news. Now I am awaiting daily buys.

  41. zig-zag
    zig-zag says:

    GDXJ might break positive before the close.
    Otherwise I only see GPL and EGO in the green.
    Enjoy your evening!

  43. JT
    JT says:

    For all the bullishness of recent reports, this week has had lots of uncertainty. It was tough seeing gold & silver green, and my mining positions like IAG and AG deep red, nearly giving back all profits. Still held them simply because they are green. GPL surprisingly strong.

    Nevertheless I think today is some kind of low in PMs and miners, and likely a top in the dollar. “I had a feeling” that the past few days of selling in miners was a setup into some kind of low today. Looking for a rally soon or else patience is thin. Cut some positions and added to stronger ones like IAG, EXK, GPL, CLF. Today’s lows will probably be a stop.

    Most notably this week NAK which threw my emotions for a ride. The bright side of losing a large chunk of money is a reminder of trading discipline and position sizing.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      I’m with you. We break today’s lows and I’m just no longer interested. I didn’t sell b/c I too was afraid I’d sell at the lows. AG got HAMMERED today!

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      We’ve had decent volatility all week, this could add some more, but I’d like to see a much better weekly close than we are currently setting up for!

      • Phil
        Phil says:

        Hi Cason

        I am hoping to buy $gold on a pullback Friday if it presents.
        Also keen to buy strongly on Monday if $gold price strength is evident.

        • Cason
          Cason says:

          I already have a bit of GLD. I might be able to buy some more Gold in the near future but we’re going to have to prove strength first. I could get interested if we take out the 200-day and then backtest. But I have plenty of miners right now. PLENTY! 🙂

  47. Aniket
    Aniket says:

    NAK up 30% in after hours. News is out.

    US Congressional Committee calls on EPA Administrator to withdraw Pebble Project veto. VANCOUVER, Feb. 22, 2017 /CNW/ – Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (TSX: NDM; NYSE MKT: NAK) (“Northern Dynasty” or the “Company”) announces that the US House Committee on Science, Space and Technology has called on the new Administrator of the US Environmental Protection Agency (“EPA”) to rescind the federal agency’s 2014 regulatory action under Section 404(c) of the Clean Water Act to pre-emptively veto Alaska’s Pebble Project. A February 22, 2017 letter to EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt from Committee Chairman Lamar Smith states: “The Committee recommends that the incoming Administration rescind the EPA’s proposed determination to use Section 404(c) in a pre-emptive fashion for the Pebble Mine in Bristol Bay, Alaska. This simple action will allow a return to the long-established Clean Water Act permitting process and stop attempts by the EPA to improperly expand its authority. Moreover, it will create regulatory certainty for future development projects that will create jobs and contribute to the American economy.” Since 2014, Northern Dynasty and its 100%-owned subsidiary Pebble Limited Partnership (“Pebble Partnership”) have advanced a multi-prong strategy including litigation, Congressional outreach, independent investigations, among other initiatives to encourage EPA to withdraw its unprecedented regulatory action against Pebble. The Congressional Science, Space and Technology Committee has held several Pebble-related hearings in recent years, finding that EPA actions concerning the mineral development project in southwest Alaska were based on “a questionable scientific assessment that relied on predetermined conclusions,” and that “EPA employees colluded with Pebble Mine opponents to stop the project.” http://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/us-congressional-committee-calls-on-epa-administrator-to-withdraw-pebble-project-veto-614539983.html

  51. zig-zag
    zig-zag says:

    NAK, stock was pummeled bad the last few days before the news. Almost seems like some people in the know ran the heck out of the stops to get the stock cheap.
    That would be pretty devious.

  53. Crawdaddy
    Crawdaddy says:

    GDX , Maybe a positive for a change GDX topped the buying on weakness chart. Pretty strong number, over 400 mil. Let us pray.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Hope and prayer about all I got left. I’ve given WAY more of my gains back than I planned to, but man I hate selling the lows before it might take off again!

      • BayTrader
        BayTrader says:

        Man.. Who you telling.. And I thought my Entries on gold were Gold… I got in low low, and almost fully invested – up nicely… and now Im scraping the bottom of the barrel for what little gains Ive got left..

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