Feb 14th – Yellen Is Done Testifying

/156 Comments/in /by

Tuesday had Janet Yellen speaking before congress, and the USD and Gold both actually acted as expected. That’s a relief. Let’s review the markets and then of course we have to discuss the day that Nak got Whacked. What can we expect next after that big reversal?

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SPX – The markets are on their way higher after a long consolidation. That consolidation gives energy to the move and even though the vix is low, I would just use a trailing stop and follow this higher.  It is turning into a nice steady move higher at this point, and these can just melt upward.

 

USD – Thearea that I targeted expecting to stall a USD bounce was $101.50isg.  Notice that the USD was oversold.

The USD  is now in the area that I think we could see it slow down and find resistance.  The good news is that as Yellen was speaking, the USD ran higher, and Gold , Silver, & The Miners did not get crushed ( at all). You’ll see when we get to the precious metals sector that they ignored this USD run.

 

WTIC –  What can I say?  It just continues sideways, though it is becoming due for a dcl.  It is defying gravity and the C.O.T. readings.

 

NATGAS – I pointed out this H&S and mentioned that I would not be going long until it plays out, which also brings it down toward the 200sma.

NATGAS has finally reached my target from weeks ago. I want to say this though, it just still doesn’t quite look ready to me.  I do think that it will bounce here and I will just be watching it. Obviously buying at the 200sma is rather low risk, so maybe some went long since I mentioned that the 200sma looked like a good target? You can put a stop loosely below there.  Why did I say that this chart doesn’t look quite ready to me though? lack of divergences and a few other things like that, so I’m thinking that it may bounce up and drop again, hopefully with a higher low and divergences as shown if it does.  THAT would be a good buy too, if you wanted to go long and didn’t buy yet.  I am not taking this trade at this time.

NATGAS –  I stepped back and it looks good here, but that MACD has absolutely no signs of life yet. I wanted to see divergence. Do you see how it bottomed in November?  I’m wondering if it might take something like that to set this chart up to my liking.  It is oversold though.

NATGAS – Another view shown here would usually simply have me saying that this is probably good enough as a low, right?  It should move higher over time and normally I’d just say to use a stop below that 200sma.  If that is the case, WHY AM I HESITANT TO RECOMMEND THIS LONG?   The reason I am not just saying ,  “Looks like we are close enough to take a bite!” is because almost everyone that I know uses UGAZ to trade NATGAS. If we get a low similar to the Nov low, a 3x etf  could get stopped out exaggerating the volatility.

So in conclusion:  I’ve actually had quite a few traders asking me about NATGAS ,  they are wanting to go long.  These 3 charts can guide you to trade it the way you see fit.  Are you  high risk or conservative? You can decide to  wait a bit longer and see how this bottoms out, or trade it with a stop. It is now in the area that I was going to look for it to bottom.

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GOLD, SILVER, & MINERS

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GOLD CHART #1 – Gold didn’t crash while the Fed was speaking and the USD was rising.  SO far , so good.  This chart shows that I expect us to be on day 12, with a day 8 peak so far and a possible 1/2 cycle dip in progress. I do need to see Gold move higher soon, it doesn’t belong below the 10sma on a closing basis.

GOLD CHART #2 – I have been asked to consider whether or not this is all one long daily cycle with a 1/2 cycle dip on day 28.  I do not currently look at it this way. I wish that it was, we’d only be on day 1, but I don’ see it this way at this point. At this point, if this was day 40 and we were still due for a dcl, that would be quite a long daily cycle.

SILVER – Was the Fed speaking Tuesday and the USD rising?  Silver didn’t give a hint of that.

 

GDXJ – GDXJ was down while Yellen spoke about interest rate hikes, but quickly shrugged it off. GDXJ closed up 52 cents with the USD rising too. This chart looks great for having the USD going straight up for 5 days.

So we didn’t see anything change with the Fed testimony.  The good news was that the USD has gone higher for 5 days and it hasn’t affected precious metals.  In fact, Look at Silver & GDXJ charts again, and they look pretty good.  If the USD does roll over here, as I have been expecting it to, I would imagine that we’d get a pretty good run higher in precious metals. We should know soon enough. We’ll see what happens on Wednesday, but so far things are playing out well.  I also need to address NAK.

 

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~ALEX

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Someone burst our Bubble – Jerk!

 

NAK #1 – NAK was climbing this stairway higher like a machine, so reliable, so rewarding. Many of us have been riding it and trading it since June or July 2016, so we’ve done very well.  I actually started thinking that we found the Wall Street ATM Machine.  I had mentioned that my stop was at the 20sma for a good portion of my holdings, because NAK doesn’t really break through the 20sma ( Though it did briefly once in January). Please read the chart, stops were run all over the place.

NAK #2– NAK got whacked when someone decided to short it and put out an article ( and a conference call while the market was open), to review NAKs past difficulties as though it was discussing what is going on now. Years ago companies that partnered with NAK gave up on the mission, because the EPA kept denying them the necessary permits.  The EPA has already stated that it was going to work with NAK now ( Trump is also acting fast in removing obstacles for getting permits ). This all remains to be seen, but NAK was a steady climber.  With extreme selling due to the article and stops running, Why did NAK then recover so strongly into the close?  Please read the chart.

NAK #3 – NAK stated midday that it will release a statement on Friday regarding what they considered to be a bogus report.  NAK then regained a lot of the losses, but it still closed down 21% . Please read the chart, I would think that this crash and recovery should be it for now.

 

NAK #4 –  If NAK recovers over time, we will look back and it may look something like this. We may look at this a year from now as though this never happened.

My thoughts?  I would expect that some came home from work yesterday and did not even know what was going on, and did not have stops in place.  After seeing this drop,  there may be follow up selling this morning as they bail out of their small positions in fear of whats to come.   Will buyers step in as they sell?  Knowing that NAK is going to have a more comforting or positive report released on Friday, buyers may step in again, like they did into the close yesterday.   Now I want to see if the 50 sma holds price on a closing basis going forward. Friday NAK will release a report to try and prove Tuesdays report was unfounded.

That is where we stand with NAK.

156 replies
  1. Aniket
    Aniket says:

    Below extract is taken from another forum. I thought it is worth mentioning here.

    “It appears to me that this is a coordinated short attack by: 1) Kerrisdale Capital 2) Levi & Korsinsky and 3) Rosen Law firm.

    How it works….Kerrisdale Capital releases a short negative report on X company which has had a huge run lately. This report causes the price to drop since since many recent buyers are momentum traders/day traders and they panic. Stop losses start getting triggered up too leading to more selling. Then on the same trading day Levi & Korsinsky and Rosen Law Firm issue separate news releases they are investigating same X company for potential securities fraud. Stock takes a bigger hit.

    They have done this before. Google these 3 players and company Straight Path Communications in Oct 2015. Same exact method.”

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Ok, so NOW we have to re-open the mental vs hard stop debate. A hard stop at 50-day was a big loser this morning (yes, Alex warned or the day after effect and I have seen that MANY times, so so accurrate!). But now she has recovered so a buy late yesterday or this morning is now a winner! Stops continue to confound me as the hardest part in trading for sure!

  8. Ken
    Ken says:

    NAK:
    As I Stated on Monday morning:
    The rumors were Out this past weekend of a possible “pump and dump” scenario And with Metals higher on Monday morning and NAK Down 6% THAT was your sign to get out and protect your profits……as I did…..immediately after that sell I placed an order to purchase back those shares at 3.42, the previous days highs…..Yes I would have left 6 % on the table but seriously? Price always Trumps the rumors.
    The red flags were there……I tried. Sigh.

  12. Thomas Yarbrough
    Thomas Yarbrough says:

    I think you have rose colored glasses on about NAK Alex . I read the article and they talked a lot about how it won’t be economically feasible.

    • Glenfidd
      Glenfidd says:

      Regarding the NAK pebble deposit- I’ve followed this story since 2006. Pebble is massive but faces three major hurdles (among others). First environmental approval. Second- the low grade will require an operation that puts through 100’s of thousands of tonnes of rock per day. This requires massive upfront capital to build. Finally- economics are very challenging in lower gold environment- this project is as long lived as mining projects get and will face many low price environments.
      My bet- much like the last bull market- at some point when gold and by products go high enough- massive low grade deposit numbers make sense enough on paper to become talk of acquisition. Will it prove a foolish decision by management of the acquirer? depends on where prices settle long term.
      This is a “one of a kind asset’ but unlocking its value will be difficult. IMO- Exeter and NAK will be multiples higher when/if we move above $1600 – regardless of whether they ever get developed- on speculation alone.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      HMMM, so you are saying that everything that you read is fact and you’ve researched it and found it to be true. You said that the guy said “How it won’t be economically feasible” or why he thinks it wouldn’t be. Did he give facts showing upfront costs? Why it won’t be? Didnt he assume that prior partners walked away when they felt it wasnt worth it? Did he interview them? Did he quote them? Maybe they walked because the permitting kept getting denied. So what you read was his side of the story. There is more to the story.

      Did his story mention that drill results show that NAK has 70 million oz of gold underground ( I wont even go into how much Silver, copper, zinc, nickel, etc)

      70 million x let’s say $1500/OZ … ( do the math,) No one will want a piece of that action?

      IF IF IF they can get permits, and can come up with a way to prevent polluting the waters ( Boy I hope so, because I love Salmon and nature too), is it possible that they would get the money/loans upfront to cover the costs in order to withdraw the Gold, Silver, & minerals. Maybe a partner like NEM or GG to loan equipment, supplies, etc.

      IF IF IF it gets rejected for permits, it will drop back down to current valuations.

      No rose colored glasses – if the reserves are there and permits are granted, I think NAK is in business. If not, I’ve made an aweful lot of money trading the chart set ups along the way.

      • Thomas Yarbrough
        Thomas Yarbrough says:

        For sure, I tend to be a skeptic by nature. I love Citron etc. but I was babysitting while I read the article so perhaps I was too quick to make up my mind….I’ll send you another message if I get a chance to fig into it.

  13. Crawdaddy
    Crawdaddy says:

    Hey Alex, I’ve read everything that I can get my hands on in reference to NAK.The best time table for the response that I can find is from the NAK website which says ( later in the week ) . Did you get Friday from a good source? No real biggy ,hope that Fri. Is correct so I won’t have to rubber neck for an article until then.
    As always the help is most appreciated.

  14. Glmus
    Glmus says:

    My AG and PAAS (especially) took hits. Maybe profit taking??? Who is an expert on this? Golds are down a bit too.

  15. Ken
    Ken says:

    IF Nat. Gas fills that gap this morning i will be going long. Risk 1.5 % x 3 if you are playing UGAZ. Risk Reward excellent and defensible….

  16. Ann
    Ann says:

    It seems Alex isn’t here right now, but I think today is do or die for miners/gold. Nice up move from the open and fade in USD, but it’s going to need to keep going for me or I’ll reduce my positions. I hope its up, up and away!

    • pankef
      pankef says:

      “do or die” always depends on the time-frame one looks at. I think we have to be careful with what we say here as some not so experienced traders/investors can be easily influenced

        • Cason
          Cason says:

          Sure, Alex is fantastic. But we have a good forum here. I keep an open mind and learn from others as well. Alex can’t be here all of the time and can’t be in all positions all the time either.

          • YS
            YS says:

            I’ve been on stocktwits for a year. so many expert. I’ve done my research. And Alex is the best one I found. 🙂 Of course I didn’t take all his recommendation. I’ve never bought NAK, way too high for me.

          • Cason
            Cason says:

            ST is full of trolls, that’s why I stopped posting there and work in this forum instead.

            Yeah, I’ve used other services in the past and had to dump them. We’re more expensive and my portfolio underperformed. GL to you and welcome.

          • Cason
            Cason says:

            No, sorry, my comment got messed up. I edited to fix it. Others were higher. Alex is cheap, especially for the sheer volume he produces.

          • YS
            YS says:

            every trade I took under Alex’s advice, i made money. really happy. I think we just need to be patient sometime. 🙂

          • pankef
            pankef says:

            I have been around since the time newsletter writers were extremely few and relied on regular mail to reach their audience. What I like about Alex is his “honesty” as he always takes a stand backed by anecdotal evidence and will never come out and say otherwise if he is wrong. That is not the case with 99 percent of the advisors out there

          • YS
            YS says:

            Exactly. that’s so true. that’s why I say he is the best. if i took his service early, I should avoid a huge mistake last fall. Maybe i can retire now. 🙂

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            Thx Pankef –

            I went through my tax information ( Realized gains and losses). I had plenty of losses, I was amazed at how many losses add up in one year, but the important thing was to keep them small, and allow the gains to far outweighed them. With Miners last year, I had HUGE gains, and many losses. when a public offering came up, surprise bad earnings. Energy trades that dropped sharply at earnings.

            Losses are not the end of the account making good gains. They are the speedbumps along the way.

            so I think it is important for every tradrer to admit & realize that they have losses & try to learn from them if possible. I have had my share of losses.

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            Thanks YS- Kind of you , and I’m happy about that, but you have to take credit for that, you must have good instincts as to which trades are best set ups.

            I have taken a few of my own trades for a loss in 2017

            : )

            I liked MTL – but out for a small loss, LBTR – out for a loss LGCY – Sold for a small loss. . As long as the winners run, the losses get erased. Gotta keep fighting for the gainers 😉

          • YS
            YS says:

            That’s true, Maria. Always love your comments. Make me laugh.

            of course i only took those with very low price, such as WTI $1.98, PLG 1.8, URRE 1.64, etc. and never added on after. 🙂

          • pankef
            pankef says:

            My point was not meant to silence the “audience ” but rather to be cognizant of the “novices” who are not well versed on how to distinguish between the various types of advice. Of course for the “experienced” Alex’s opinion is important but not necessarily what may be in agreement

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      I bailed on TRQ and THM recently. Just didn’t do anything for me. Didn’t hit stops but no reason to keep money in there at risk.

      Clearly going to have to let CDE go. I thought based on cycle timing we would get that “WOW” part of the 2nd cycle which would lift CDE with the others and I could sell a bit higher. That doesn’t appear in the cards, could be dead money for awhile

  19. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    Just checking in quickly – WOW 70+ comments, I wont have time to skim them all, just skimmed a few . We are shoveling roofs for some elderly friends- more snow on the way tonight along the coast . It snowed Tuesday, Thursday and 20 more inches Sunday. Getting heavy on the roof.

    A couple of thoughts,

    Charts on Miners looks ok, the $USD did pop & drop, hoping for more selling.

    NATGAS reacting at the 200sma as expected. We’ll see if it can break the 10sma.

    PAAS – Earnings release, didn’t sound bad, but HIGH volume sell off here doesn’t look good.

    NAK – Just like I thought, people woke up & sold everything, and then either shorts covering or buyers stepping in, NAK is now up 7% as I write. AT THIS POINT IF YOU ARE HOLDING NAK….it may be a good time to decide whether to hold or let go for Fridays rebuttle. See attached chart, NAK is almost back to the recent consolidation. Choice is cut positions for loss or gain – hold for taking a chance of bigger loss or gain.

    MJ sector still has many nice set ups. I bought my CNBX at 80 cent area & sold mine a bit early. I think TAMMY bought that days too? Still holding Tanmmy- great gainer.

    I like the set up on CNAB right now too ( 6 month chart) . I also sold my MCOA when it doubled, it dropped and is almost back to where I sold it. I like that set up too.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2e8f4db96f557b037f9b6544af55f2964d93ad4216cfc05cea5f9d1a350413af.jpg

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        I shovel my parents roof & some elderly friends if snow gets too built up, but 1 year I was away and the snow was heavy on my parents roof. They were anxious and worrying. Their neighbors went up & did it. When I saw what that meant to them? They went from sleepless nights expecting a leak or damage, to relieved and stress free – all from an hour or two of work.

        ( They’ve actually got a metal one now and it cleans itself)

    • Tammie
      Tammie says:

      Yes, I still have CNBX in my retirement account…I sold it yesterday in my trading account though (!)…then it took off again today! I actually bought it back earlier today for my trading account since I think it’s going to continue up. I have 100% gain on it in my retirement account…first time EVER I’ve had a 100% gain in anything so I’m happy about that! I put CNAB on my watch list last night to possibly get soon so glad you covered it here today!

  23. Ann
    Ann says:

    I’ve got a bunch of puts expiring FRI, so probably just talking my book, but VIX products up all morning in spite of SPX rise. Maybe the first sign of trend change. Maybe.

  28. Ann
    Ann says:

    Alex- were you expecting a fifth wave completion in uranium stocks? Can you touch on that in your report if you think todays candles look like a top? Thanks

  29. deshy
    deshy says:

    HMMM…metals up, market up and miners lagging….not sure but they’ll probably be a big move one way…or the other soon.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Also could draw horizontal lines at 1234 to eliminate spikes. Hopefully a bust above that tomorrow runs straight to 1244 previous top! I’m ready to harvest my GLD calls. GLD kept me in the ballgame this afternoon with miners trailing.

  31. Steve Tytler
    Steve Tytler says:

    Stocks continue to rock. I know most expect them to “top and drop” soon but my old favorite TQQQ looks very bullish on my charts in all time frames (daily, weekly, monthly), I see no hints of QQQ topping out yet. I just mention that in case anyone is thinking about shorting stocks based on the very low VIX rate, I think the bears are in for a tough fight for awhile. If I were not already “all in” on miners I would have been “all in” in TQQQ this year.

    • zig-zag
      zig-zag says:

      HI Steve,
      If I replicated your 15 min chart correctly it looks like GDXJ is just going sideways (not trending)
      Hopefully it is just building up energy for the next move up (Optimist).

      • Steve Tytler
        Steve Tytler says:

        you are correct, GDXJ has been pretty weak lately and I’m watching it closely as it trades sideways. I actually have some “sell” signals on my daily chart but the weekly chart is still bullish. So I’m waiting and watching and hoping that it starts to pick up energy soon and rally. Right now, it’s on the “edge” and could go either way. My cost basis in GDXJ is $32.85 so I have a lot of room, but I have set a stop to sell half at about $40 to lock in profits if/when miners roll over into a down trend. By comparison, check out TQQQ vs GDXJ over the past month! I may have backed the wrong horse.

        • zig-zag
          zig-zag says:

          Actually from Jan 1 to present the % gains for GDXJ and TQQQ are about the same!
          Can’t argue that the ride on TQQQ wasn’t a lot smoother!
          But wait a minute! TQQQ is a triple fund? If that is the case JNUG blows it away!

          • Steve Tytler
            Steve Tytler says:

            Stock indices are very “tame” compared to miners, that’s why I trade the 3X ETF to give me some “juice.” I also trade JNUG, but only if I can get in very low and catch a strong uptrend. GDXJ is much more manageable to ride over the longer haul.

          • Cason
            Cason says:

            Yeah, can’t really trade QQQ or SPY; you would have to drop 10’s of Ks in a single trade to make any real money.

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            BINGO! EXACTLY! I was going to reply the same thing, TQQQ is ultra, compate to JNUG- JNUG has tripled. You cant compare TQQQ to GDXJ and be sad.

            You compare TQQQ to JNUG and rejoice!

          • Steve Tytler
            Steve Tytler says:

            I agree, it looks good on a weekly chart, that’s why I’m still “all in.” I was just talking about the last few days, basically trading sideways since last Monday.

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            True, but when someone comes on and says ” GDXJ has been pretty weak lately”, and people view him as someone that knows what he is saying, I get emails asking ‘why we aren’t selling, because so & so says it has been weak lately, and he uses all time frames Why do we hang on to such weakness’?

            So then when I come on and say in reply – ” Pull up a chart, its a bull flag and staying strong so far”, it helps other readers to understand that it is not some hidden weakness or internal weakness or something bad like that . I dont want anyone to panic when GDXJ is strong to me 🙂

            Your idea of weak was… see the attached chart. I’m just posting to help readers that may not understand.

            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/33e2d77df7dd1cb2c1e48b697d9c66f7db64ffe5f653560a0ac25de9588059c1.jpg

          • Steve Tytler
            Steve Tytler says:

            Point well taken. My bad. I have to be careful what I say here because I am a much bigger risk taker than most novice investors/traders should be and I should have been clear that I was talking about the sideways pattern since February 6th. As you expertly pointed out, it is still bullish and I agree with you because I’m still almost 100% invested in miners. I used to be a “wiggle watcher” and that got me into trouble in years past. I’m much better now, but I still get a little frustrated and impatient when my positions go sideways rather than chugging higher as I had hoped. Bottom line: Follow ALEX, not me!

  32. zig-zag
    zig-zag says:

    I know a lot of people seem to be freaking out but GDXJ is holding the 10dsma, also the current correction looks like a pennant and the selling volume is decreasing.
    GDX has lost its 10dsma, its correction looks more like a flag and its selling volume is not increasing.
    I think GSS and HMY are showing some relative strength in this correction. Their charts look better than most.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      I’m not freaking out. But I am disappointed. It’s different. Haven’t sold, still in it to win it, but been disappointing for a 2nd daily cycle in a bull.

  33. Tammie
    Tammie says:

    SING – another in the marijuana sector – mobile payments system, hoping to buy an interest in company called Convectium (they manufacture oil filling machine for vape pens/cartridges) – sounds like they hope to buy interest in other companies in the future (it’s their hope anyway…..)….they hope to uplist and become a fully reporting company this year, recently announced they became debt free,,.started to move up a bit today…I bought some later in the day right before it started moving a bit – hoping it will continue up tomorrow – do your own due diligence…it’s a 6 cent stock so….risky…

  34. Tammie
    Tammie says:

    OWCP – think that looks like a bull flag from about mid January to now…? If so maybe it’s getting ready to finish up and bust out of there…..possibly….maybe….

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