FEB 9th – Race Against Time

Time has certainly been on our side and our trades have been making gains for several weeks now. That said, Nothing lasts forever, so as we move forward we do begin to think about where we are in the stream of time. We are basically racing against time, but I am not concerned yet.  I will discuss this briefly now and a bit more in the weekend report.  Lets review the markets.

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SPX – Nothing has changed from Yesterdays report, so I am moving on to the USD

 

USD – Here is what I want you to notice to keep it simple: The USD has been rising as you can see. Gold & Miners are ignoring it basically.  I expect a weak 8-12 day bounce or sideways move and then the USD could roll over and seek out an ICL  (A deep drop to new lows). If Gold is ignoring the USD rise, what will it do when the USD drops fast? I think we do still have time on our side.

I’ve been saying to watch the 101.50 area – and this was in my weekend report.

 

OIL –   Oil inventories were up, the C.O.T. has smart money short, sentiment is overly bullish and…oil surges higher?  🙂

WTIC – So oil put in a big reversal on day 20. I’m not expecting  oil to really rally from here. This sideways chop may just linger, but eventually OIL should drop into an ICL.  The strength has been impressive under the circumstances.  I’ll continue to monitor it .

NATGAS – Thursday will likely move NATGAS.  I mentioned that it would be safer to wait for a break above the 10sma before going long, because I’ve also been watching a H&S pattern and my lower target was near $2.88ish.

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GOLD & MINERS

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GOLD – This last 4 days higher was with the USD rising too. We are watching a bit of a slow grind higher. My initial target ( $1275) is still higher,  BUT… That target is the ‘initial’ target.  They often extend, like last spring 2016. 

 

In fact – Here I pointed out that last Springs rise was hugging that 8sma with minimal pullbacks despite whatever the USD was doing then…

And this rise is similar to 2016.  Last spring Gold & Miners blew right through the initial target and ran straight up through the 200sma and on to the extended targets, so I am looking forward to watching this unfold.

 

GDXJ – Here is my initial target for GDXJ, apparently many here are trading JNUG and a few have asked for a hint of what the GDXJ expectation could be. RED BOX was my initial target.  Will it be an easy ride?  A straight ride higher? It might be, but the next chart shows…

GDXJ –  This chart shows that riding GDXJ could be a tad jumpy and you know how JNUG would handle this.  I DO NOT COACH readers through JNUG on a day to day basis. I’ll cover GDX & GDXJ , but you need to be experienced to ride JNUG or NUGT.   WHY??

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If you needed help learning to ride a bicycle, would I put you on this?  No.  If you are not an experienced trader, you should not be riding JNUG or NUGT.   What if you are experienced and know how to ride JNUG?   Sure,  go for it, but you must exit the trade with your own experince.  So I will discuss GDX / GDXJ and you can trade 3x etfs based on your experience.  I want you to know that I honestly have received emails with Horror stories of people putting a huge amount of their account on JNUG, and then riding it from $18 to $5, not understanding how that could happen.

GDXJ – This would be a great way to see GDXJ and GDX move higher.  This is a very bullish set up if you see it. If it happens I will discuss it further.

SO things are still playing out in this very bullish sector as expected. We haven’t tried to get too cute by selling everything on a dip with hopes of trying to buy back in lower.  That has not worked out in this run higher, and I did give advance warning that it may not.  There will come a time to lighten up, and I will discuss that in the weekend report.  Enjoy your Thursday trading and after I sign off I will discuss a few trade thoughts. Thanks for being here at Chartfreak!

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~ALEX

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I WANT TO DISCUSS TRADES

 

NAK CHART #1 –  NAK has been one of the most predictable and perfectly trade-able trades over the past 8 months. That may change in time, but for now I will keep playing it as it presents itself.   Wednesday an hour into trading, I captured this chart as it sold down. RED ARROWS were to show how NAK can reverse at the 20 sma, so I am looking at that area as a target. You could add there as a low risk entry. I wrote  BUY BUY BUY in the stochastics too, where it was a good area to add to positions.

NAK CHART #2 – 3:00 O’clock.  It actually dropped down there as the day went on and then reversed higher. The pattern continues to repeat. Doesn’t it seem to blast higher for only 2 or 3 days and then roll sideways for 12 days or so ? This may be ready to blast higher.

VGZ –  I have been discussing accumulating VGZ for this pattern and it just wouldn’t break higher out of the base. People were questioning my sanity saying, ” Are you still in VGX?  Why?  What do you see?”  It really did feel like a never ending consolidation / base.

VGZ – I see huge potential though. I have shared charts like this back in December, but now this was breaking out.

VGZ – And here we go with a break out!   IF you accumulated this with me near Dec lows, I think that we can expect a 100+% move over time.  I also think that it will do well from here too.  🙂

 

PLG –  I was pushing this one too, saying that my GUT told me this was going to be explosive.   They did an offering and price didn’t flinch, I mentioned that.  Notice the 6-8 days of hardly any movement in January ( Sideways).  That is when people get bored and sell, and that is often the best time to load up. We loaded up!!

PLG – Then you get a POP and more sideways…Time to LOAD up even more, or at least get in!  It is the proof you’ve been looking for that this trade is correct. This was captured at 10 a.m. and I posted in the comments section that it was going. Up 10% in the first 15 minutes.

PLG –  And then PLG ended the day up almost 20%.

THERE WAS NO NEWS, but it was in the charts, wasn’t it?  🙂 Congratulations to those that bought in at that $1.50 area or even higher.   This could bull flag somewhere under the 200sma, but also it could really break right through that 200sma. If you are really heavily positioned,  you could cut some at the 200sma if it stalls there and let the rest ride. This DOES have the potential to just break out and keep going as the P.Metals move higher.

 

I HAVE ALSO BEEN PUSHING FOR THM as an explosive set up – I owned a good amount at 55-60 cents and did add higher than that too.  Today it took a punch in the chops, but I do not view it as a knock out ( Yet) .  I need to see more, but let me review with several charts how I am viewing it.

THIS series of THM charts will be a look inside the mind of a day trader.

Also as a disclaimer:  I looked at WRN today  ( Thanks ROB, for mentioning HBM–  Copper stocks were setting up).  I bought WRN Wednesday and then decided to take some of my THM and buy an additional portion of   WRN with that too.  So I will discuss WRN after I finish THM.

 

THM CHART #1 of 5 charts – 11:00 a.m. and THM was selling off.  We were discussing it in the comments area, so I took a basic snap shot of THM in an up-channel.  I felt that it was fine at this point, upside is still being resisted by the 200sma.

THM CHART #2 – I zoomed in 1/2 hr later and it was breaking the 10sma. I’m not happy about that and the volume was heavy.  Does some insider know something? I couldn’t find news, but I’m going to let my position ride,  because I bought lower and have wiggle room.  I bought down at the 50sma, so  I AM GIVING UP GAINS, and I do not like that, but it is still house money and PLG is taking care of me  ( The basket of miners pays off).   If anyone here sold theirs, that is fine.  Maybe you bought higher and needed to exit the trade, maybe you wanted to keep all of the gains?  That is a fine decision, you can always re-enter if it flips higher, but I wanted to see what happens.   Other miners were adding on gains , so this wasn’t that big of a deal.

THM CHART #3 – Looking at this trend line , I decided that I was not holding it if it breaks this trend line. Then I drew the magenta one too.  That may be support, and that is my line in the sand.

THM CHART #4 –  THM did then fall there by end of the day, and then did a small bounce into the close.  This needs to break upside quickly, I dont like rising wedges. Again, this lower trend line is my mental stop. This could fall to the 50 sma and be fine, but I may lighten up or sell completely if it tries to.

THM CHART $5 – THM  hit that multiple support area.  If it breaks down further tomorrow, I may just sell and let it do its thing without me, for now.

 

Uranium stocks  like URRE, URG, UUU, UEC, DNN and  Copper stocks like WRN, HBM, etc  suddenly looked like good set ups today too. We’ll look at CLF & WRN below.

 

CLF – I was asked how CLF looks, and I mentioned that it is a large cup & handle formation, but the handle is extending.  I said that it looks to be hanging in there, kind of still going sideways . I posted this chart after lunch and CLF was at $9.17.

CLF– By the end of the day it was at $9.52 and the ‘handle’ looks like a mini cup of its own. If that is the case, then this chart has the recent consolidation lows as a mental stop. Those lows shouldn’t be taken out, but that is a 10% drop, so what about a tighter stop?  CLF also  just recovered the 50sma, and that could be a “Tight” stop.

This actually looks like it wants to go higher from here.

WRN – We have been trading WRN occasionally, so a quick review. This was our BUY in December at about $1.00.

WRN – The long term chart has excellent potential.

WRM popped from out $1 entry to $1.20, pulled back for a few days, and then SURGED to $1.80.

It stopped there and has been consolidating those gains.  I pointed out this possible buy on January 24th, but it actually continued consolidating as you will see.

WRN – so WRN kept consolidating, but Wednesday it landed on the 50sma and reversed sharply with 2x the volume that it has been trading at this week.  It has formed a Triangle and the apex is running out of room, and I entered this trade.  I like the set up , so as mentioned earlier in the report, I actually decided to sell 1/2 of my THM and add to my WRN position again.  This Apex is either done or very close to done, so I think it is a good buy here or during  a break out higher ( Proof).