Wednesday Feb 1st – Fake Or Real?

There were a lot of interesting moves in the markets Tuesday. Today is Fed Wednesday, so we shall soon find out which ones may have been fake moves and which ones may be real. Let’s take a look at a few of these moves…

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In yesterdays report  we saw that SPX broke out and dropped back down. Was the break out real? Was the failure real? Well on Tuesday the general markets dropped again and recovered, so let’s take a look at something else.

IWM – The IWM and the RUT have just continued to consolidate, so the markets remain rather directionless. Maybe Fed Wednesday will give us the direction after this long consolidation.

Might this be a clue?  The IBB ( XBI and LABU) pulled a pretty strong looking reversal higher, recovering the 50 & 200sma with good volume.

USD – The dollar continues to weaken, it is close to breaking the last dcl. That would be a failed daily cycle. It is overdue for a dcl.

GOLD, SILVER, & MINERS

GOLD – This looks real,and we saw follow through after a test of the 50sma. It also regained the 10sma.

One of my Gold scenarios showed exactly what we are seeing in Gold right now, with the possibility of a post Fed drop. HOWEVER…

GOLD – This chart is dedicated to a friend of mine Rob L., since he used to love working with the ICHI clouds and gave me a few of his own special settings.    🙂  I have found them to be rather reliable.   The way that we used to use them, this ICHI cloud indicates that we had a dcl and started a new daily cycle too.  It says that GOLD is Bullish.

The Timing bands also indicate that we have broken down to a dcl and started another daily cycle. This says that GOLD is bullish too.

GDX – This looks like a consolidation that builds up energy for a break above resistance.

GDXJ –  This is the same as GDX.

The FLY IN THE OINTMENT is that the USD is due for a dcl  ( Gold might just ignore it if the USD rises in a weak final daily cycle), and the FED is ahead, but as seen above, Gold , Silver, and Miners charts are bullish.

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SO let’s take a look at some individual miners.  Are some leaders acting bullishly?

RIC – Ric made a 10% move Tuesday and looks set to break out above the 200sma.

PAAS –  This one is well ahead of the pack.

TGD – TGD is pushing against the 200sma and had a nice surge in volume Tuesday too.

AXU –

ASM – They had released earnings and gave a favorable 2017 outlook too. It was back testing that break out here on Jan 26th.

ASM –  Follow through over the last 3 days and up over 9% Tuesday.

I wanted to point out some JUNIORS that I have always had on my watch-list, but I never discuss them because the volume is low.  AT times some of these were only trading 20,000 in volume per day, but they have been recovering very well. This could indicate what other miners will do soon.

BCEKF –  up 16% Tuesday, almost back to summer highs.

CALVF – This one is an old favorite, but it still lacks sufficient volume for me to trade it. What a nice run it made in 2016 though  ( see a 1 year chart).

MXLGF –  This one hurts, because I like the company. I almost bought it and recommended it here in December when it broke from the Base and wedge.  Again, Volume was  WAY TOO LIGHT.  There were days when it only traded 10,000 shares.  At 10 cents a share, $1000.00 was all that was traded in a day? I cant buy that, but off it went. Now it occasionally puts out 500,000 in volume, like Tuesday, and has doubled. I might be looking into it when the average volume is over 300,000.

VITFF – ANN mentioned this one Tuesday, it was not on my list. It looks good.  It has broken the down trend, consolidated, and is also moving higher.

So in conclusion:  It is a Fed Wednesday and by now, you know how this goes. There are real moves and false moves, and crazy reactions can also follow that 2 p.m. decision. Last December 14th  ( Fed Wednesday)  we saw a 2 day slam in Miners that Fed Wed and Thursday, and from there the lows were in place.  Let’s just see what we get.  The charts for Gold, Silver, and Miners are set up bullishly as shown. We should be still riding Miners from the DEC lows  ( Not getting too cute and selling everything if we decided to lighten up a bit), so we should have a cushion if it gets a little shaky post Fed.

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~ALEX

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TRX –  WHAT IS THE STORY?  Yes, It may be boring many to death. There are times when my patience pays off in spades and other times when it doesn’t.   Last May I recommended TRX and  to many it was  boring for weeks.  Honestly, I heard that with NAK too from August to October.  🙂

TRX actually  ran up 60% in Dec to January. It is consolidating and is now getting oversold. IF it were to return to summer highs over time, it is a triple from here, but when it gets moving?  I do not know.  No guarantees. I own it.  Buy? Sell? or Hold? –  it is up to you.

NAK –  See August to October.  Why were we still in this piece of garbage? They make no money and this stock is going nowhere!

See AUGUST to OCTOBER-  that is a consolidation period.