Still On Target
It’s Friday, the last trading day of the week, and things are continuing to move ahead, right on target. Let’s take a look…
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When I pointed out the USD on Wednesday, we were looking at a new low on day 32, with a peak on day 16.
I see a bullish engulfing in the USD, so this could be the short term low. This makes the daily cycle of the USD Left Translated, and that bodes well for gold. First, we well see a daily cycle low in the USD and maybe 5-8 days of strength. FED WEDNESDAY might become the ‘peak’ for the USD.
WTIC – Oil is looking bullish and as mentioned in yesterdays report, the XLE and many Energy stocks were already looking bullishly set up.
Look at charts of EMES, CRK, LGCY, NOG, etc, and you’ll see the bullish charts. Some are too extended to buy, but I bought LGCY Wednesday and I think that it could break out higher soon. Lets look at…
LGCY – I’ve had my eye on a list of stocks that seemed to be setting up. Yesterday this broke above this downtrend line, and I think it can follow through, because it has consolidated for weeks.
LGCY WEEKLY – And if you are in it for the long run, this base could lead to much greater highs over time.
GOLD – JAN 10th – Remember this educated guess? Gold to roughly 1220 and then a drop to back test the 50sma.
GOLD – Late in the daily cycle, this is rather perfect. Fed Wednesday could be the low, or maybe it even bottoms ahead of time and no one dares to buy it because of the Fed on Wednesday. Clever.
GDX – Miners are slowly drifting downward. Some Miners are holding up better than others. NOTE: when I wrote the report on “not getting too cute” earlier this month, GDX was lower than current prices.
NG – Read the chart, several Miners didnt sell down with GOLD down $15 Thursday.
GSV – This is strong, and is a lot higher than it was when I wrote the report mentioning that one shouldn’t sell ALL of their Miners hoping to add on the dcl .
ASM – I mentioned that I own it in the report 2 days ago, and it is selling off on light volume so far, bouncing into the close.
THM – The same with THM
PLG – Same here, but this is basing. PLG had a public offering and it wont sell off. I feel that something is really bullish here, time will tell.
CLD JAN 25 ( Tuesday) – I posted this chart because I liked the support around the lows of $5, but could it get follow through with the overhead 50sma ( blue arrows)?
CLD – We are about to find out, CLD was up another 5% Thursday and is challengng that 50sma now. I think that it will break out soon. A break out could be bought and it should run from $6 to $8 over time, forming a cup.
TMST – This is a bullish set up, but it has lagged a bit. Thursday it started moving and broke out. This is a Steel stock and their earnings are due out Today or Monday, so it may be best to put this on a watch list if interested, or a tight leash if you decide to buy it. AKS struggled after earning release.
SO things seem to be playing out exactly as expected ( 1 of the 2 Gold / GDX scenarios in past reports). #1 scenario was a melt up continually like we saw last Jan- March 2016. #2. Or we get a drop into a dcl to the 50sma area after breaking out above it. THAT one seems to be playing out now, so we are not overly concerned about this dip.
This late in the daily cycle, you would not own leverage. You may have lightened up a bit, but my advice was not to get too cute and sell out of all positions, in case the melt up continued. As pointed out, we saw GOLD down $15 all day Thursday, yet several Miners were actually green ( See NG, THM, VGZ, BTG, GSV, etc). We are late in the first daily cycle and a dcl could come at any time, but this is my thinking…
1. The USD is just now putting in a dcl and should move higher
2. Next Wednesday is a Fed Day, it could affect things
3. Gold could bottom before the USD tops, so next week could be important
I will be looking for a swing low and a DCL in the near future and when we see it, the next daily cycle is expected to be a profitable run higher. I’ll discuss this a bit more in the weekend report. Enjoy your Friday and weekend, and as always, thanks for being here at Chartfreak!
~ALEX
It seems that everybody involved in the NAK trade wants to discuss the NAK trade.
I cannot answer all of the questions that I now get about buying or selling NAK, because some things have changed with the way it is trading. It still looks quite bullish, but I do not know exactly what will happen from here without admitting that it is more of an educated guess. Will it go parabolic? Will it drop further? Will it consolidate? How long will it drop for? Is it safe to buy it right here?
I admonished Buying on the way up, selling ‘some’ on the pops in case it keeps rising, adding on the dips if it drops. If you did that, You are fine.
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I’m going to show you what goes on in my head when I am trading these types of positions. I look at the variety of possibilities, and as it plays out, I adjust my trading plan.
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NAK #1 – It has dropped over the past 2 days but it keeps getting bought back at the $2.75 area so far. Will this drop lower? Who knows, maybe, or this could just form a bull flag as shown. ( I don’t know, this is just an educated guess).
NAK #2 – It may drop day after day like it did at prior peaks, until it reaches the previous ‘peak’ on the way down. I dont know, this is just an educated guess.
NAK #3 – Let’s get complex. Did this just burst into a new even higher trading channel on its way to going parabolic? If so, these lows at $2.75 should hold. If not, this can drop toward $2.25 – $2.50
NAK #4– Just one steep channel, it could go sideways for a bit or even drop to $2.50
NAK #5- 2 week long Box consolidations, be patient and it may only dip to $2.75ish?
NAK #6 – NAK really is steep and that could be parabolic top. When it tops, it could easily drop 32% to 50% or more over several weeks. People will keep buying the dip and it will just keep bouncing and dipping and finally people will hate NAK as much as they hate any other miner during a sell off. The love affair will be over ( for a while).
NAK – $3.50 (everyone that never owned it bought it at $3.00 – $3.20 on the dip, because it is an awesome stock with an awesome Trump story) and finds it at $1.80 later this spring. Then people hate Nak.
PEIX – Do you remember my parabolic run in PEIX from $4 to $28 October to November 2011?? I kept buying the dips too, but after that run it eventually bored me to death with the dreaded year long consolidation that digests the recent price run up. The set up is a bit different with NAK, but I just want to let you know that when it peaks, wherever that may be, the party can stop. When they top they do lose their shine for a while.
OR
CWEI – $ 5 to $150.00 in less than a year. I guess Dreams can come true in a few of the true rocket ships, but they are rare and can still be a difficult choppy ride. 🙂
With the renewed interest in precious metal miners, i took a look at a couple of charts with an even more hated sector, rare earth metals. Remember that flash in the pan? With potential trade changes under Trump, and the Gold miner interest, I went back and looked at a couple Be interested in others to weigh in. Two I looked at are lyscf and avlnf
Hi Mike,
They have been mentioned here last week or maybe 2 weeks ago? Check out REEMF on a 1 year chart.
I believe it was Edward that actually traded REEMF on that huge pop, so I pointed out AVLNF a week or so ago, based on REEMF. AVLNF seems like a break out from a downward sloping consolidation and above the 50sma. It broke out above the 200sma briefly, but dropped back down.
I’d say that they are rather risky at this point , but that they could be interesting lottery ticket too, but they may shape up to become bullish uptrends over time.
I still have all the position (he said with a great deal of humility, more like a confession), from .20 at purchase to .52 and back to .18 this morning. It has been like riding the bull at Gilleys. Not like Maria on Wall Street. I believe that it is still being accumulated and that the “South will rise again!” This is said as a trading neophyte and just an emotional/delusional trader. We will see!
Wow, that was a great read, what kind of coffee or tea are you drinking this a.m., and pass some of that coffee over to me!! lol
The bull is really bucking I’m back even and REEMF is up 32% at 11:55AM. One thing for sure for sure as Jerry Glanville would say NFL (not for long).
I have done that SO MANY TIMES! Ride ’em up/ ride ’em down….hopefully back up again. Too often not.
Loved the commentary on Nak. Plug is my favorite zero to hero to zero story. Never seen people so excited about a below average company in my life. .10 to $11 and everyone knew about it. And people bought every dip since 2013 peak.
I remember that too – and I traded it then. PLUG, BLDP, FCEL were good trades then too. QTWW was another huge one for me, but it disappeared, not sure if they got bought out or went pink slip?
And that is the danger with a super stock that doesn’t pan out….buying the dip all the way back to the lows again. “You have to know when to walk away, know when to run” 🙂
thank u kenny rogers
Did the quotes give it away : )
Continuing to just slowly accumulate every time we are down a bit. Added to CDE, FCX yesterday. Next is PLG, THM. Also getting ready to start first tranche of GDX, GLD calls for 2nd daily cycle. Will slowly leg in over next 4-5 trading days, pending daily price action. GL all, today.
Ok, quick break from work. Adding now while I still can!
Alex, quick question about NAK..just kidding!! Have a great weekend and thanks for the service.
Ha Ha – Good one deshy – I was trying to think of what in the world I forgot to cover!!! 🙂
You know what I’m thinking this morning, I believe the establishment hates trump, and wants to crash the market on his watch, so I’m wondering as we all expect another right translated daily cycle here in gold, wouldn’t it be a real kick in the groin if they jawbone about raising rates dinner then later, leading to the dollar soaring, and crushing our gold positions.
Then again could be the mental damage of the last 4 to 5 year’s talking
Hi Steve
I like the last sentence, made me laugh 🙂
I have some of that mental damage from the past years also…..:) it’s a love hate relationship with me and gold….right now I don’t like it very much…..:) Don’t trust it enough to get in when I should, usually get out when I shouldn’t ….just too conditioned…
Completely understand
Very interesting action watching gold on a 5 minute chart since 8:30 eastern time.
Interesting how?
Just a battle of buying & selling.
Bounced right at 50 day
could have had leg A down, now B up ( miners a + right now) , and early next week C down ?
Maybe in a smaller time frame ( 15 minute chart?). I just dont see GDX getting back over the 10sma again until the dcl is in place and it is pretty close to the price now.
I look at GOLD or GLD and they dipped down a good amount. Maybe GDX & GDXJ just break the 10sma, recover, and are done with selling off. The pull back in GDX / GDXJ just look pretty small at this point, but usually a dcl is quite noticeable on a chart, that is why I expected a bit more.
We’ll see
USD at support from the previous 2 major tops. RSI oversold and moving higher. TSI? I could see a bounce to 101.50 H&S and then the big drop.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/J8ScF86B/
Its expected that the 38.2% fibo would be the turning point for GOLD. it hit that overnight and is gaining strength. Its moved up thru the last consolidation zone, looking strong. BUT, overbought. Interesting day for sure.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/D78E7671/
CF great report, and thanks for answering me about the Gold questions I had. Good luck today all!
Thanks & If you mean in the email, I will cover it a bit more in the weekend report too.
GSV still breaking out higher
I has a $2.80 ish short term target. The follow through looks real
I was hoping for that on THM, but I think we are getting a bull flag on that one.
RE GSV …. could it act like NAK….? would you sell some at 3?
Hey Robert- If I had a HUGE position, I might take some off of the table like I did with NAK, in case it stalled and formed a handle, but this looks like it’ll form a giant cup, but then it might just break higher and keep going higher. It was a long consolidation and a string move into it.
I like this stock too much to sell if I had a regular position in it;
Boom 2.81 print GSV
I’m looking at Gold & The MINERS and this looks rather bullish .
I thought that we would have to wait for the FED WED to see a bottom, or maybe the day before, but this looks like a bit of a bottoming process on small scale charts
It does look strong, perfect tag of the 38.2% fibo
I do have a buy signal on Miners and even Gold, but it is a short term signal ( That can lead to a bounce, but also always happens at a dcl).
Conservative traders should wait for a move above the 10sma in GDX or GDXJ.
We Traders – we always take our chances 🙂
Bonds could be your tail wind….. 😉
LOL
🙂
well… i have a few … 1 i wont mention (u might blush) ;o) the other is Verbal Judo … was an old course text but I remember liking it so rereading…;)
You could use the “art of persuasion” in many ways…..some call it being a want/need to be in control ? I am not speaking of myself or anything….. 😉
lol…. also at the bequest of my Mom who ‘misses her Maria ‘fix'” i downloaded Words w/ Friends… having fun w/ that…. care to challenge???? ;o)
nope…..I would most certainly be out of my league….lol
I have already asked SIRI twice this morning how to spell a word….lol
u sure ur name isnt James … James Bond…
#ShaknNotStirred……………
Your thinking a Martini already this morning MVT ? 😉
well… not yet… but soon…. ive been a very good girl but it is Friday …isnt it? havnt been keepin track of time…lol ;o)
What book you reading ocean/pool side ?
lol
Silver leading the way here…….?
Edit. Yep there she goes!
I didnt recognize you Daz 🙂
is that ur super duper pooper Indicator…..
No, I’m actually just looking at GOLD , GDX, and GDXJ on 2 hr 4 hr 15 minute charts etc, with various indicators and the strength looks more real than just a bounce. I’m trying to be patient and watching to see if GDXJ drops to $36.50 and stabilizes, but it isn’t dipping down
But like I said, GDX & GDXJ should get above the 10sma and close there if the move does have real strength behind it. Conservative traders waiting for a swing low, a dcl would wait.
I wouldn’t want people piling in on a bounce & get slammed next week, but most stayed invested anyway ( And didn’t get TOO cute) so if the move has legs behind it, they’ll make money on a move higher from here and can add at a safer level.
if we would end here, it looks like it’s a bullish harami on weekly, both on gdx and gdxj
do show ray
you mean, show the graphof both of them ? tried that before to add, never was able too
usually what I do, is mail them to Alex and he puts them on : )
Maria might be able to help ?
Please…. 😉
just mailed them to Alex
2 Charts From Ray to Ken
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b14d3c1c0d684ad9143b321edc7e374c0cddc4d331ffa646aa05a9057a032729.jpg
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b14d3c1c0d684ad9143b321edc7e374c0cddc4d331ffa646aa05a9057a032729.jpg
Thanks CF and Ray……
If you would be so kind and explain harami candle ?
it means that the last green candle is inside the previuos red candle
u guyz in the Us might call it differently – this is the Original japanese term
And that is telling you ?
http://www.onlinetradingconcepts.com/TechnicalAnalysis/Candlesticks/Harami.html
Thanks Ray and Ed.
Ken, Something that might interest you–Wyckoff Power Charting–If you haven’t been exposed to it already. I just became aware of it and it dovetails in with CF analysis quite nicely. Here is recent article I received and if interesting some other references.
http://stockcharts.com/articles/wyckoff/2017/01/in-gear-with-relative-strength.html
http://stockcharts.com/articles/wyckoff/2015/07/wyckoff-power-charting-lets-review.html
http://stockcharts.com/articles/wyckoff/2017/01/going-for-the-gold.html
Very interesting Ed. Thanks.
Would you be willing and able to follow his signals and track the results for a few months ?
I’m going to try.
i luv how u pimp me out……………………. lmao
#onMobile…maybe later
Well “pimp” might be a tad strong lol but I would more likely say your willingness, knowledge and your “art of persuasion” talents would be a perfect fit for Ray at the moment…… :0) !
There’s your drop to $36.50-ish
Now to see if it continues or bounces…
(I have a few wishes to put on your list!)
THANKS- I got distracted, back to the chart!! I was looking for a drop in GDXJ to that area and then I want it to stabilize . move higher before the close would be bullish to me.
So far – drop and stop in that GDXJ 36.50 area. I like it 🙂
😀
DRYS another -18% today……
It is definitely enjoying a Titanic move
THAT is what a Waterfall decline looks like…….
Bought my first tranche of TLT this morning on the daily swing buy signal. (unconfirmed)
Stop below 118.32.
bought some more tmf yesterday : ) saw a little tiny wedge forming the last couple of days
Sweet…..very nice Ray. May the Force be with us ….. 😉
I should let you you know my opinion:
If she breaks 118.32 it could be a rather deep break so……
I bot some yesterday at $118.97. Thanks for a place where I can stop out. I will mark my chart and set an alert.
Right behind you, Ken.
ok… thanks. welcome aboard…..;)
WPRT something thats been on my list for a while. Broke above the 50 – keeping it on watch, looking for entry
I like it – maybe it’ll bull flag and make the entry easy
NAK NAK NAK 🙂
Yaaas! Haha its doing NAK things again.
VGZ finally decided to wake up a bit
FCX FCX FCX 🙂
DQ DQ DQ – Marias old favorite
REEMF REEMF REEMF – +30% —Go Edward
She does like ice cream …….. 😉
THAT she does………… 😉
I wish i had a dollar for every time i sat down to chart w/ a pint of Ben&Jerry’s…. and minutes later said … what?? where’d THAT go????? LOL
#TrueStory
LOL !!!
Cheery Garcia for me please…. 😉
hmmm…. that’s a tough one…… I’mmm gonna go w/ choc fudge brownie…. mmmmmmmm
ur making me hungry…lol
Chocolate freak…. 🙂
I’m even now! They say you bob up three times before you drown?
I see it gap up nicely this morning but she looks top heavy to me ……. sry jmo
AG!
AG!!!
Alex, thoughts on URG? Down 8% since the recommendation!
recommendation ?
Well, since he said that the sector was looking good and could be ready to move higher!
Both CF and I thought a top was in just a few days ago ?
True Ken, , for the 5 waves up – then a consolidation likely ( a-b-c possible) and then higher. Some individual stocks may do their own thing. Sometimes these things get crazy 🙂
Very true……but I would Not be buying an individual stock if the underlying is in a corrective wave unless; I was privy to the last board minutes….. 😉
It’s similar to GSV with Gold dropping into a dcl.
Maybe the chart lets you know whats happening at the board meeting ?
Insider buying is a valid point…….and the chart might show it.
o brother…
*brownnose
Refresh for a chart- My URANIUM report was on Jan 10th, and they’ve gone A LOT Higher. URRE , URG, UEC, etc.
URG was recommended here at 62 cents in that report, it ran above 90 cents ( On the chart from that report – you see the green line and where we would expect a pullback as drawn) Then it should continue higher .
At this point I see it above the 10sma. These can swing 10-25 % in one day in either direction, so the swings are part of the deal.
So yes, I think they go much higher.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/130317d3e5901c867e51314082139aa1fca208963bf1c3cd92eceb95d91006f4.jpg
Thanks for responding Alex.
I still think that the daily looks fine… I had to draw up a chart though. refresh https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2231d14f30c1493378bdfc2c5ee933ed4ae1bbee364d162970453361b82b5945.jpg
Wave 2 decline in the process imo also as you are showing…….how deep is the question ?
Yes, how deep. I drew an a-b-c with c barely undercutting, because the sector seems to strong & full of buy the dippers.
I also though , what if 5 was only 3 – But URA looked pretty clear as a 1-2-3-4-5.
I feel like I’m speaking a foreign language here 🙂
I am understanding you completely…….;)
ive always said…he’s really a closet EW’er ken….;)
He is coming around isn’t he…. 😉
Alex mentioned in the comments that he thought the sector was breaking out on the 28th! I took that as a recommendation.
I was scared I wouldnt get to re-add to HBM, added this morn (shoulda jumped in yesterday) but moving up quite nicely
I like that chart too ( FCX dropped and is recovering and HBM looks like a good set up).
I’m having that DIP in LGCY right now, but light volume and tagging my break out, so I want to add too.
Then I saw NAK and re- added there.
Earlier I was also seeing good signs in the Miners, and timing is right for a dcl, so it is hard to stay focused.
I’m all over the place this morning…lost to look at! – lol
can’t decide on WRN. Thoughts? Just a dip to before the run??
It’s not broken. Consolidating that big run recently, but selling has been light.
thx! it was the broken thing I was after as unlike the other players 2h 50ma on this one is pointing down.
haha, what’re you saying CF? You cant do 100 things at once? Sheesh
Que the circus music ***
CF, so you wouldn’t start JNUG just yet?
Well, as a person that writes reports and is looking to help people make money and keep it, rather than go high risk and risk losing it quickly, I would not. We do not have a swing low in place, we are heading into a weekend, and a Fed Week next week, so there is a lot to consider.
Also, many readers here Buy and go to work for the rest of the day. They can’t watch the markets and bail out of something goes wrong, In JNUG, if something really goes wrong – it drops 27%.
Right now I see a nice reversal in Gold and do see signs in Miners that were bullish, and the SLV is very very good looking, but even so – to be safe I always recommend readers to wait for a swing low to be in place. Even then you may notice that I dont recommend it to others, since I do not know how others handle leverage like NUGT , JNUG, USLV, etc
I leave it up to the reader to know what kind of trader they are, and even an inexperienced trader here can make good gains in some of these miners. They can move quite a bit in a 2nd daily cycle once the lows are in place,
I’m starting a position. I’m not recommending to others, but think we’re close enough. I’m buying in 1/6 tranches so it’s slow and I’m keeping dry powder. I won’t nail the bottom, but taking it slow enough.
While I can’t comment during the day, I keep my watchlist up at work. If we go whacky, I can get out kinda quickly. Not real quick, but kinda. I’m also gonna start options, but my overall $$$ risk I’m putting up is small. Sure if we don’t bottom here, the % cut is bad, but my total $$ risk is absolutely defined.
Dollar and Gold both moving higher? Wow, cats and dogs.
Gold and the stock market have been trading inversely lately, so we may be seeing a top in the stock market corresponding to a bottom in gold.
Pull up a 6 month chart of SLV using only a 50sma. What is wrong with that picture? Nothing 🙂
Take a look at BITTF (btt.v CAN). It owns 360 square miles in Northern Michigan and recently acquired an option on a silver producer (http://www.bitterrootresources.com/s/newsreleases.asp?ReportID=776134), sending it’s stock up into the high teens US. 2 days ago, it floated 1.4M shares at at $.18 CAN) and the stock remains higher. It may be forming a bull flag while volume is exploding. Very speculative. Price hasn’t been this high since the mid 2000s. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8b4a2ccf2bd6800832b084d42a294fd2a71da55cbb5afe4b8ce6e51b3d418dfd.png
Where in northern Michigan?
Bitterroot’s Michigan subsidiary owns more than 360 square miles of mineral rights in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, making it one of the larger owners of mineral rights in the region
Very interesting. That’s my backyard. Thanks.
no volume
cenx, starting to move again
For those TGD holders, this set up looks good, and this is during a pull back.
Yeeea it does!
Thx! Hope so…starting to hit the bored phase with this one..and been underwater too long with this one!
TGDs a lagger… It wont move.. then you wake up with a bullish engulping like Helllllo
Someone PLEASE tell AUMN to get its behind in gear! Come on!
Me too [underwater]…come ON!
AG and GPL popping up today as well
Any word out there on DRD, seems to be lagging and slipped under the 20SMA?
HI Alex,
you mentioned TRQ yesterday, do you have any further comments on it?
Thank you
It seems that “They” run the markets we watch (GDX, GDXJ, Gold) right to important moving averages that “we” consider to be important support & resistance – then gap them over/below in after-hours to keep us timid folk out
That is exactly right. I know a guy who had inside access to the highest levels of stock brokers in NY. They know how to “paint the charts” to get traders to do what they want. Unfortunately, PM traders are the easiest to manipulate because they have been trained to “BTFD” and they will fall for it over and over and over again. Also, the top brokers share their customers’ stops with each other so they know exactly where the stops are on every stock and they will get together and run them. This is not conjecture, this comes from a guy who was in the meetings and had access to the “secret lists.” Alex, you know him as “Hulk” from our old private trading group.
I’m not surprised – it’s tough when we play in the big boys arena. “BTFD” – what does that stand for?
BTFD is an old PM trader term … it means “Buy The F***ing Dip!” LOL That’s why I always use the initials, the old timers know what it means and I don’t want to offend anyone.
Not an old timer but I knew exactly what you meant. Cause what I did this week? BTFD!
TGD on steroids today
Watching my block trade indicator on my Schwab trading platform I saw somebody buy 480,186 shares of JNUG @ $8.37 a few minutes ago. Was that one of you guys? LOL
Steve, you use streetsmart?
Yes, I use StreetSmartEdge … I set my Block Trade Indicator to track any trade over 100K shares so I can see what the “Big Boys” are doing. For example, somebody just bot 121,597 shares of GDX @ $23.22 and there was a trade of 4,198,733 shares of GDXJ @ $36.87 Now some of those may be settling “dark pool” trading at EOD, but still interesting to watch.
I use it too. Havent yet figured out/played with all the bells and whistles, I was using TOS for years and finally switched over. Def getting used to the changes
Damn that was supposed to be 480 shares :((
Interesting Steve. That’s a whopping amount. Please keep posting these massive trades. Thx!
Looking forward to next week when I won’t be so busy and can focus on the comments here and start studying charts again! Just have to get past tomorrow, another busy one!
Hi Tammie. I’m with you. Was travelling today so this is the first chance i got to check in here… I’m patiently waiting to get back into a bit of leverage with JNUG, NUGT and possibly USLV. I got out of leverage but pretty much holding everything else. You’re right, next week will be interesting… 🙂
Same point here. Looking to start scaling into calls and JNUG next week on any shallow pullbacks.
Yes Cason and Tammie, we’ll see. Looking at the macro picture among other things, I was predicting FOMC meeting results all of last year (even though they were talking hawkishly, I was predicting no rate hike until December) with very profitable results moving in and out of JNUG on the pops after no rate hike after no rate hike. But not sure what is happening next week with the Trump now in power. So treading carefully here. But would appreciate folks posting with reasoning when they are buying back in. (I realize not everyone here uses leverage :)) I’ll do the same if and when things become clearer. Have a good weekend all.
PS – looking ahead from at point (and this can change), fundamental macros still say they can’t raise rates at all for 2017, though they might do it once to save face on their 3 raise prediction. That coupled with Trump’s statement that the dollar is too strong reinforces this. But, I’m still treading very carefully going back into leverage into this apparent DCL. Might buy some before the Wednesday announcement. Does anyone have a clear read on what the market expects with respect to FOMC upcoming announcement? Things seem pretty quiet from what I’ve been able to look at.
I haven’t been reading anything on it…but…..I’m thinking that they won’t raise this time….even if they carry through with what they said they still have time to raise the rest of the year…and with Trump just starting his term I’m thinking they will want to be slow to make any more changes since they just raised in December….? But…..with the market moving up, if they think inflation might creep up….who knows? But my bet would be on no rate raise this time…..have to read up this weekend so that opinion might change once I’ve had a chance to go look at economic data, etc…..:)
I agree. I would be very surprised if they raised now…
Yes, I am wanting to get back into JNUG…glanced at it today but couldn’t look at charts long enough to figure out anything so decided best to wait…..so much I haven’t been able to keep up with since about Tuesday – can’t wait to catch up!