Ready To Run

Todays report is simply to discuss stocks that look ready to run. Tuesday, while looking at the S&P 500, we saw a reversal. We also saw a reversal in many of the stocks that I had been eyeing, so let’s take a look at the the markets and some of those stocks.

 

This was from yesterdays report.  It was bullish overall, because we were locking in a right translated daily cycle, but I was also expecting a dip into the daily cycle low. In the weekend report, I pointed out the 50sma as a possible target for that drop.

 

SPX – On Wednesday we saw follow through on the reversal.  I do not know for sure if that was the dcl, but these markets look set to go higher.

 

NOTE: To release this before 8 a.m. Eastern time, I cannot proof read it, please ignore typos. Thanks.

 

NASDAQ, IWM, XBI, etc all look similarly bullish. So here we have the

XBI – I know several readers that like to try trading LABU , and this break out makes LABU a buy.  PLEASE KNOW that LABU is a 3xETF, and not for long term holds and NOT for inexperienced traders in my opinion.

CLF –  If you have been with Chartfreak for a while, then you remember trading this last spring, and it ran very reliably. In November CLF doubled and I’ve been waiting for a pull back and a low risk set up.  This looks low risk.   It has held above the 50sma and looks ready to break out higher.  I would buy it anywhere here with a reasonable stop, but some may wish to wait for a break out above the 10sma.  I would expect this to run $5 higher, but just buying it from here to Dec highs is a nice trade too.

FCX – I posted this chart as a buy for FCX on Jan 3.  Compare it with CLF above.  I think that it looks exactly like the set up for CLF above, so I wanted to point this out.

FCX – You can see the set up is playing out bullishly.  I believe that CLFs set up is low risk and very much the same as CLF.

 VALE –  Another set up similar to FCX and CLF.  I posted this JAN 3 chart in my recent report, and VALE was $8.05.

VALE is still  $8.05 and sitting at the 50sma, so if you liked FCX and you like CLF, you also might like VALE.  It has waited here for us to enter 🙂

WRN CHARTs – I was accumulating this and posting charts in December reports.  This shows the long term potential, if you bought and held on.  (  I bought, accumulated, and sold 1/2 on the last run).   I may buy that portion back now.

WRN – This was the cup and handle that I was accumulating around and below $1.00 –  others here joined me, it became a nice trade…

WRN –  After running to $1.80,  it pulled back and flagged for a bit.   It might be ready again, or it could consolidate for a bit longer.  It is a buy if you are looking for a longer term holding.  The reason that I think it might be ready to run is that  FCX, TGB, HBM, and WRN  are copper stocks and take a look at TGB if you get a chance.

NSU WEEKLY  –  This is a gold Miner that is also a Copper stock. It is a low risk buy right here, as it sits and held on a confluence of moving averages.  Honestly – It has been consolidating for soooooo long, and I have been watching it for SOOOO LONG, that I have to point something out on a separate chart.

NSU WEEKLY LONG TERM

I have traded this stocks on several occasions and it simply continues to consolidate and do some base building. It is in a multi year trading range.  Lately I cannot bring myself to take a position, but once it breaks out and  gets running, it could really do well.   Well, the above chart shows that we may be at that point where it does break out and run higher.

HBM –  Another copper stock that looks found support on the 50sma and broke higher, ready to run. This MIGHT drop and fill that gap, so I would buy it if I see it do that. I already took a small position for a quick trade, but I may add on a drop / gap fill  and see what I can squeeze out of it, if these copper stocks all continue to run higher.

 

TGB – My Dec 15th chart showed the Big Picture potential. A copper stock.

TGB WEEKLY –  Expected the run to continue higher after a consolidation.

Posted on Dec 16th – It looked like it could drop to the $0.70 support area and that would be a buy for longer term

TGB  did drop to the $0.70 area and has reversed higher.  Copper stocks have remained bullish.  Some here bought this, congrats! If it does not immediately break out and forms a handle, then I may buy it, and will post a chart here at that time. This is on my watch list, but it looks ready to really run again.

 

URANIUM stocks dropped to red yesterday and then put in reversals higher.

URRE made some bullish progress with this break out. This is at least a 6+ month base, so this is a great set up.  Many will say,  ” How can I buy it if it is up 15% Wednesday?”  I believe that over time, this has great upside potential.

URRE WEEKLY – Due to reverse splits, the chart is distorted, but the potential is real. A break and close above $1.90 could get seriously crazy.   I will update this chart in the future and I think many will be surprised at what could happen here.

WPX  –  I know that OIL has very high COT levels, and Oil is in the timing for a dcl  ( Daily Cycle Low), but I see many Energy stocks that still look ready to move higher.  WPX is one of them, and this break out is a buy for traders.  OAS, AREX, CWEI, LPI, ECA,  PACD, NADL, etc are setting up bullishly again.

 

PACD – I bought this one, but I sold it for a very small profit when it began pulling back.  It actually pulled back further than I thought that it would, so I posted this chart pointing out that the 50sma may be where it was going. It could be bought there if that and the base holds as support.

PACD – PACD did hold at the 50sma and now is reversing higher with good volume. It could be considered a low risk buy with a stop below the 50sma.  It is oversold and in November – December it ran from $2.75  to $6.75.  That was huge, and it has been consolidating those great gains.

I also wanted to point out that since we saw GOLD close above the 10sma, we have been discussing buying Miners. I mentioned that I was buying  GPL, DRD, TRX, VGZ, etc near the lows.  I had some charts of other Miners in past reports from Dec and January, and I will include a few in this report too.

 

VGZ – I think the potential on any set up like this is great, and I do think that we have seen an ICL / YCL in Gold. I bought positions in VGZ and TRX simply due to these bullish types of bases.  I will ride and hold for as long as it remains bullish.  You can see the purple dotted line on VGZ.  I  view a break above this line is a break out from the base.

 

ALSO in yesterdays report was PAL, a Platinum stock sitting on a double bottom low. I’ve had a few buy it and ask, “Where should I sell?”.  That really depends on your trading plan, and here is why…

PLG popped about 8%, now well above the 50sma.  Is that good enough for you?  Just  scalp a decent % and pocket it?  If so, PLG was up over 10% at one point yesterday and you could have just locked in gains.  On the other hand, if GOLD put in a long term low and platinum did too,  PLG could continue to run over time.  Look at the run last spring from $1 to about $4. Similar to past trades in TGB, WRN, etc, these can be longer term ‘buy & hold” plays too.  I think that PLG could double or more, but that is only if you are patient and can ride the waves.

AG – If you take a look at what we have here, we actually have a long solid base. I personally would just buy it because I think that the lows are in using Cycles.  Technical traders may be waiting for a break above the Magenta line or 50sma, so this could start moving when we see that.  If you wanted a position in AG, now is a good time to get in near the lows.   Look at a long term chart and remember what AG did last spring.

 

CDE –  Again, we could be at the 2017 lows.   In 2016, it ran from $2 to $16!   It was a solid run, and back when it was $16, people would give anything to be able to buy it back in the spring when it was around $9.  A week or two ago it was around $8 and no one wanted it. Now its around 9 or 10, does anyone want it?  If CDE breaks above the 200sma, technical traders may start buying it and push price higher.

If this was the start of a bullish 1-2-3-4-5 run from a base,  the ‘2-3’ should be bigger than the ‘base to 1’.  In 2012 , CDE ran from $15 to $30.  The former highs can be considered a long term target if we break this down trend.

 

So quite a few trade ideas in various sectors.  DO NOT let this amount frustrate you.  You cannot take them all, but having choices is what experienced traders want. Do you want a Miner?  you see a few here.  Did you miss that run in Steel, Aluminum, Copper in the October – December time frame?  They pulled back and FCX, CLF, VALE, etc look pretty good here.  Have you traded the Biotech sector in the past?  XBI and IBB look to be breaking out.

THINK ABOUT YOUR TIME FRAME TOO, and then find 1 or 2 that you like. Do you just want to quickly scalp a gain just about to break higher?   Maybe a trade in FCX, CLF, VALE would do the trick.  Do you want to buy a stock low and in its base or just breaking from a base (  like a Miner or PLG or URRE) and just ride that position for a few weeks and see what happens?  There are a few of those here too.  I’ve been accumulating Miners and trading other ideas myself.   Enjoy your trading day on this Thursday, January 5th!

 

~ALEX

120 replies
    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      TECK looks great to me. It fell below the 200sma and that probably doesn;t look very appealing to many, but right now it is pushing on the 10sma and looks ready to pop. I think over time it will regain that 200sma.

      You could wait for a move over the 10sma, but I’d buy here just to get in if I was looking for a position in it.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Good for you, Crystal.

      Patience pays off. : )

      I got stopped out of a few trades for being early in a few of my trades, so you avoided that.
      It doesn’t bother me due to my style of trading ( it is to be expected when trying to buy as close to the lows as possible) ,
      but for some, waiting for that perfect set up is much less stressful and rewarding.

  1. deshy
    deshy says:

    Alex, thx for teck response. Also can you confirm we are on d16 of GC? I’m showing the last dcll on dec 15th. Is that correct?

  2. nancytheartist
    nancytheartist says:

    Great report CF! Like a menu to drool over! Unfortunately for me, all I can do is drool because I am ALL IN! Happy hunting Crystal and other patient folks!

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Nancy, what would you add here? I actually have a few K sitting around even though I am really heavy into miners.

  3. Mark G
    Mark G says:

    Alex or anyone: who was the individual who stated a bout 3 weeks ago, paraphrasing, that history show the low in gold is in when it breaches the 50 and the 200 (I may those numbers wrong) by at least 16% or something like that. I have that maybe half right but it went something like that. I’d be curious of his/her thoughts at this juncture.

    • pankef
      pankef says:

      On the 15th of DEC I pointed out that when the XAU Index closes below its 50 and 200 day MA by 10% it marked an excellent bottom; I don’t know if you are referring to this Mark

      • Mark G
        Mark G says:

        That’s exactly what I was referring to Pankef! That was some excellent insight that along with all of Alex’s due diligence caught my eye. Any further observations along the way please let us know. On the money with gold and 4 days early on GDX. That’s impressive. Thanks again.

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          I’m not trying to be a jerk, but I like to learn and I back test everything I learn. If it works often, I can use it going forward.
          If we learn something useful and apply it, we do well. If it fails and we use it?

          I wouldn’t use that method, I’ve found several areas where XAU lost another solid chunk.

          MAYBE the terminology should say ” IN a bull market….” ? In the bear market sell offs, it failed

          Chart attached. it dropped almost another 20 points ( Just trying to be helpful)
          .
          https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/47a9e2f7bf9ce444924f1ced53fa19e3f8924c7f3e985db4f8f663f9adeb4c89.jpg

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            Yeah, I didnt see the post ( That is what I suggested above in my comment. That maybe something was missing, because I was back testing and it was failing).

            In a bull market that could be the ICL .

            Thx

          • Mark G
            Mark G says:

            Not being a jerk at all as I think you were only attempting to clarify on this fast moving day. But, Pankef did take that into consideration as he mentioned i.e.., the stat is actionable only in bull markets which of course begs the question. We’ll know soon enough I suppose- should that neckline at 22.80 once resistance on GDX now acts support which to me would be a huge tell. Also, it will be interesting to see what GLD does at that gap at 115-116. Two big tests I would think. Thoughts?

  4. Ken
    Ken says:

    Uranium (URA)
    The 5th wave top of 1 is close (daily and 2hr. stochs overbought)…..I am going to harvest some profits and reduce exposure here and ReEnter (add) at the bottom of wave 2 where ever that may be.

  5. Tammie
    Tammie says:

    AXU having a nice run….I was deciding between it and ASM last week or whenever it was I bought…..ASM not doing as well though still up…

    • Edward Bernhart
      Edward Bernhart says:

      Tammie, ASM had the dreaded stock offering in November which plummeted the stock (much like GPS). I have both but rode down ASM into -35% range. Nice to see some green shoots even if it can’t compare to AXU.

      • The Seer
        The Seer says:

        Don’t worry. ASM will rise. Hold so no losses!!! We do not have lines around the corner trying to
        buy physical yet . . . . there will be a rush to mining stocks.

        • Tammie
          Tammie says:

          Thanks, Seer! I’m holding….don’t have at a loss but barely a gain…..looking at the chart I keep thinking best to just wait….:) If I sold it would go up….hahahaha

          • The Seer
            The Seer says:

            Tammie, too cute. That happened to me last year. I sold at a small profit
            one and the next day it doubled on a news report. One day off! Name of
            game is to just always wait and sell in the black! Don’t lose!

  6. Hawaiifive0
    Hawaiifive0 says:

    Alex what’s your best guess as to how many days are left to the top of this DC? I’d like to sell down some before the top.

      • Cason
        Cason says:

        Yeah, last winter you never really needed to sell out. Could hold until summer. Other times the drop into a DCL is pretty steep. We’ll have to monitor when to pull back and when the add!

  7. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    I hope everyone bought that DIP in URRE. I loaded the boat.

    WRN also flying, CLF, VALE, FCX trades working out well

    ALSO from yesterday…see 2 attached charts
    .
    Chart #1 pointed out the buy on a 15 minute chart
    Chart #2 is the result – A break out & even a back test 🙂

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/94396e8c60c594d2725dc608b2353fcd2315759beb0342aab7981eb08a160d20.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/da84709195967c5c8c9b7a08ec16ec58fb804311a7ab17bf1b7ef2312533ae40.jpg

  8. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    In todays report, I think EVERY SINGLE chart is up, and a few are even up by 11% or 13% (Woo Hoo!! )

    That is a good sign that we are going to get another traders market, a stock pickers paradise : )

  9. Carlnetscouts
    Carlnetscouts says:

    Wow. What a great way to start the morning. Looks like miners GDX will head straight to the 200DMA.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      I was thinking 1st DC could test Oct-Nov highs near 25.5. 200 is just below that (24.75), both potential targets, likely eh?

  10. Bill
    Bill says:

    Alex, all what do we see as the next big speed bump for GOLD? I’m thinking the 50 on the daily chart for DXY! im looking for 1204 Gold as a minimum run, that’s a 38.2% fibo of the drop from election day. Thoughts? #HB

  11. zig-zag
    zig-zag says:

    Alex great report as usual.
    Fantastic calls leading up to this rally.
    Picked up some VALE early this morning, sitting on several pm’s,
    THX!

  12. The Seer
    The Seer says:

    Very Happy New Year! Thank you Alex for AG and CDE chart info. Both ran up a lot this morning. Big players move these up fast and down fast . . . . Looks like some people picked up on ICGQF and SSPXF I mentioned. Patience pays off – just wait if any still have some in the red -they will go up as miners hold the hard assets in the ground against the coming fiat/derivative collapses/war.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      yeah, they popped even better than I expected. Now that they are showing strength, maybe you’ll get some shorts covering & buyers stepping in to push it higher.

  13. BayTrader
    BayTrader says:

    Great report CF! Picked up some AG this morn, sold JNUG, Grabbed some NAK yesterday at 1.79, and still holding PLG and URRE

  14. The Seer
    The Seer says:

    Yes, thought of that this morning at first look – oohhh those shorts must be screaming and
    selling with losses . . . and others jumping in. Still good price to get in. I wonder if we will
    have a down tomorrow or will go up on the jobs report . . . I have to pull my self out of
    micro managing and stick with the macro view of the chart – upper RSI/MACD/Stoch/Williams
    will show when to prepare to exit.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Right here, guys. Was stuck at work earlier, like usual. But don’t worry, didn’t miss the action, had plenty of positions on. Huge day for me today. Hope you guys did well!

  15. Carlnetscouts
    Carlnetscouts says:

    My rare earth stock REEMF is even back from the dead. Thought we’d have a little profit taking before tomorrow’s jobs report but I guess not!

    • deshy
      deshy says:

      A bit crazy…love MUX but even I had to trim a bit…almost entire daily candle sitting above BB. I don’t want to get too greedy here.

      • Ralph Wiederzane
        Ralph Wiederzane says:

        I hear you, It’s rapidly becoming one of my favorite, but I would think it’s due for a break. Then again, I recall the run last year, relentless!

  16. Andy
    Andy says:

    Hi Alex (the ‘newbie’ here). Just wondering…
    If 2017 is anything like 2016, what sort of minimum ‘expectations’ to you have in terms of % gains. I’m trying to gauge my own performance/abilities as compared to seasoned traders as yourself. If anyone else wishes to share his/her thoughts on this (touchy?) topic, feel free…

    Thanks in advance, Andy

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Hi Andy – Not sure if you’ll see this reply, since I just released a new report before checking back here, but last year was exceptional here. Using MIners and Energy. I look for certain specific set ups and we caught from lows to highs, many nice pops and runs in TRX, MUX, GPL, CDE, AG, SA, VGZ, and so on.

      In all honesty, I traded JNUG & NUGT But I do not recommend it often, because inexperienced traders do get hurt holding on to those too long.

      Gains for my account were in the 100’s of % . Holding on to my NAK Trade and adding on dips was a big part of adding to gains when other positions were being stopped out this fall.

      • Andy
        Andy says:

        Got it, thanks. I more than doubled my (main) account in 2016 and did +300% on a smaller, more speculative one (mostly mining juniors and marijuana stocks). My feeling is that 2017 should be about as profitable, but don’t want to get complacent or anything of the sort. I’ve read that “The Market Giveth, and the Market Taketh Away too”!

  17. Cason
    Cason says:

    Hey guys, new here, just wanted to know real quick – who was it that was buying JNUG last Friday on the slam and then had an 1180 target on gold this week?

  18. Cason
    Cason says:

    Man, what a day. Today was my best trading day in 3 years!! Not trading the wiggles. I’m in it for the long (er) haul. But I did pull off some leverage today, still not selling 1x miners. Sold some JNUG near the top a few minutes before close, covered DUST put. Still holding many: MUX, BTG, EXK, TRX, AG, SAND, AUMN, VGZ. And have additional powder to add when I need to.

    • nancytheartist
      nancytheartist says:

      Hi Cason….saw your question this morning and I hope you get this answer. I have all of these except SAND. AG is in my core and is a good company and big winner for me last year….I sold for great profit and kept some as core. Added more and think it will do great again. I also will hold some with good “stories” as lotto tickets.[NAK TRQ NGD] TRX I just picked up with my last $ based on Alex report a few days ago. AUMN is a wild ride when the volume zooms in. I go in/out of that one. From the “menu” Alex provided in this report…I have in my core CDE [good co] HBM [copper and gold] VALE FCX CLF. The last 3 I went in/out last year and did well and tucked some away. I suggest to look at a 4 year chart to see potential for longer term. I tend to hold too long sometimes and have to ride up/down but I also keep in mind that potential…also I HATE to sell anything at a loss, though I am beginning to see why sometimes it is smart to do to free up $ to pick a more promising choice. I am learning my lessons from this past year. I had 3 bad losses from bankruptcies…I will do more research first. Also, I will avoid low volume stocks. Must run.

  19. Cason
    Cason says:

    Nat Gas. Could have been the Bottom of ‘A’ of wave 2. Was a Doji on the daily, though, but reversed after getting hammered from a below consensus report today. If this . Correct, could get a solid bounce though that will set up wave C to close out wave 2 in a few weeks. Then, get wave 3 into February. UNG. Landed in the 50-day today. Could be like risk with stop below today’s low. Be prepared to sell or hedge at top of ‘B’.

  20. Tammie
    Tammie says:

    Wow, kind of wish I’d sold my FSM and EXK today…..looks like silver fell off a cliff tonight – dropped much bigger percentage wise than gold so far…..glad I did decide to go ahead and get rid of my ASM since it wasn’t moving.

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