Weekend Report- January 1st

In my opinion, the year 2016 ushered in a traders paradise. Let’s take a look at where 2016 left off , and where 2017 begins.

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SPX – As expected, the S&P 500 is selling down at this time, possible target shown.

USD – Dec 28th, I wanted the USD to begin its drop into a dcl, and this would make it left translated ( weak) if it didn’t break to new highs.

USD – Dec 30, we have our drop, but we need more than 16 days to keep the L.T. idea alive. I anticipated a drop to the 50sma, but I noticed a bit of a wedge rising here. We’ll be able to see how this plays out over next few days.

WTIC – Oil is still above the recent break out, but it has not seen any follow through. Timing is moving along and I would expect Oil to start a decline into a dcl anytime in the near future. Volume has died down quite a bit, so Oil is becoming rather lack luster to me now. Basically, I am expecting a decline soon.  Let’s look at the weekly chart.

WTIC WEEKLY – We see a light volume climb.

NATGAS – On Dec 23rd, I posted this chart and said that I didn’t think that NATGAS could burst higher at this point. Over all , we see a bullish uptrend, but this looked like resistance.

When NATGAS broke out on Dec 28th, I said with this chart that I expect a pull back now. This was  ( at least temporarily)  an invalid break out.  I do have a longer term target of $4.75 ish

NATGAS Dec 30 =  I expect a pullback, I cant tell if it will be all the way back to the 50sma or the bottom of the  wedge. I’ll watch it as it plays out.

NATGAS  Currently – I have a target in the area of $4.75 longer term, but the weekly candle currently looks like a topping candle.

GOLD, SILVER, & MINERS

At a glance :  Friday looked bearish and negative, with the precious metals reversing lower and selling off even more rapidly from before noon to the close. They closed near the lows.

GOLD – After finally breaking above the 10sma, golds reversal Friday alarmed many traders. So far, we are still above the 10sma. I would like to see this 10sma hold, but what if it doesn’t?

GOLD NOV-DEC 2015 – THE LOWS were in place in 2015 after Gold finally broke above the 10sma.  It did drop and close below it again, so it is not the end of the world  ( or the end of the lows) if we break back under the 10sma, but it gets concerning and annoying. Then we would need the lows to act as our stop for  Gold.

GOLD WEEKLY – Still showing a break out.

SILVER WEEKLY –  Not as impressive as Gold was.

GDX DAILY –  This 50sma is where prior daily cycles failed.  This looks different this time, so I am not concerned about the rejection at the 50sma at this time, as though it were a repeat of what we saw in Sept, Oct, and Nov.

GDX WEEKLY – The volume for 4 days on a holiday week of trading was actually very good.

TRX – I looked over  individual charts of a few different Miners. Even though they all sold off on Friday, many  Weekly charts still have a bullish look (SO FAR) to me.

VGX WEEKLY – Gravestone doji holding above the 50 ma.

At this point in time, we had a bullish looking bottom in Precious Metals during the holiday trading weeks, and a break above the 10sma in Gold & Miners. This all sold off on Friday, so now we need to see some follow through upside this week, yet be aware of the downside risk.

REVIEW A FEW TRADE SET UPS

I wanted to review a few of the recent trades discussed here.

NAK #1 – NAK isn’t really climbing in an overly steep manner in the big picture, but it can be a bit unsustainable with resistance in this area.  On the daily chart, we’ve repeatedly seen NAK climb and drop, climb and drop, and that keeps the climb healthy. It is now at a resistance area , as shown.

NAK #2 – I can picture NAK eventually putting in a small consolidation, similar to what we saw in July. That time May be now, and I drew what we might see in the coming days. I have been selling a portion on the rise, and buying back on the dips. I’m patiently waiting to see where the next buying opportunity is.

I want to discuss the idea that I presented last week with  CLF.

On this CLF Chart – I mentioned that we had a break out above the blue down trend line with a reversal candle. I thought that if we didn’t get immediate upside, we could expect a possible roll down the blue trend line toward the 50sma as shown.

CLF – We are seeing exactly that happening now. It is closing in on that 50sma, and is oversold, so I took  another look before buying to see if things are still acting as I expected. You can see that it does have a bit more to go to tag the 50sma.

CLF WEEKLY –  On a weekly basis, CLF acted as expected, and is right above the 10 weekly MA. That is usually a good place to buy too. This may become a place to start a small position if one wanted to get into CLF, and add on further dip to the 50sma on a daily chart.

FCX WEEKLY FROM DEC 16th – It was closing in on support and the 10 ma after breaking out. We would watch the pull back further, the 10ma was at $13.

FCX – This looked like a low risk buy for a small starter position, because FCX was near the 50sma at $13.36.

THEN FCX broke the 50sma. Is this a broken chart or is it a shake out, I wondered? Notice how it is acting at the 10sma too, being held down.  One could wait and buy a break above the 10sma, but I noticed something when I panned back for a bigger view.

FCX – I see another possibility.  Notive how the 200sma is lining up with an open gap.  Being aware of this set up  (a possible Gap fill at the 200sma possibility) may have one adjusting their trade.  Sell and buy lower if you bought at the 50sma? Wait for a break back above the 10sma, wherever that may be?  If you had a small starter position, should you ride it down and add at the 200sma?  That might break a personal trading rule  ( The rule might be not to ‘double down’ on a position in the red). SO with this info, a trade can be taken here, or wait for a drop, or a cross above the 10sma.  Let’s look at the weekly chart too.

FCX WKLY – The dip actually looks like it could be complete on this weekly chart.  I have a feeling that next week should help us to see what FCX wants to do.  If the markets sell off, I want to see if Metals stocks resist or get caught up in the selling too.

With the General markets dipping down here,  it is possible that Oil & Energy , maybe also CLF, FCX, X, AKS, WRN, and other Metals trades could be dragged a bit lower.  That is why I wanted to add these charts to the report now. It is good to be aware that if the general markets are going to dip down further, they could cause other set ups to drop a bit, or just go sideways for a while, consolidating  recent moves higher.

The markets are closed Monday in the U.S. , so enjoy the rest of your time off, and Tuesday we’ll see how 2017 starts us off. 🙂

~ALEX

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I had a bonus report Friday, showing a list of Marijuana stocks and I repeatedly mentioned that these move a great deal %-Wise daily, so they may not be for the faint of heart or inexperienced. Maybe just plain ole not for someone who cannot be in front of the screen all day.  I did mention that possibly taking a small position and letting it ride could pay off in the long run, if this becomes the next healthy bull market with recent legalization voting.   So Lets take a look at what happened on Friday alone…big moves?

Heat Map Update –  I posted this at the start of Friday.

UPDATE  – You can see that %-Wise, they moved like a 3x ETF Friday alone.  Tuesday these could be up another 20%,  or down 20%,  so it is an area that should be viewed with caution and as I mentioned,  maybe a relatively small position of BUY & HOLD could one day see a 5 cent stock over $1, or $2, or even $5.00 in the future, as mentioned in Fridays report.