Is It Really Moving?

Sometimes things are moving so slowly that you can’t believe that they are even moving at all. Well, We’ve seen this in the Precious Metals Sector over the past few days, but with the release of the Fed Minutes Wednesday, that just might change.

Since anything can happen with the release of the Fed minutes,  I’m  just doing a short review for Wednesdays update. For some reason, I do not expect today to be easy, it could get volatile. I was hoping that Miners would have run higher over the past few days, thus giving us room for a little rocking and rolling that could come from those Minutes being released. Instead we remain close to the lows. Gold could still do a quick shake out of the May ICL, and still reverse higher. It also may just take off higher from the lows.  Like I said, this may not be easy, lets review the charts.

Reminder: Thursday the markets are closed in the U.S., and Friday is a 1/2 day of trading.

.

USD – We had a swing high Monday on day 10 & 11 ( unconfirmed), but we saw no follow through to the downside on Tuesday. We have seen this action at minor tops before, so we’ll see what the release of the Fed Minutes does to the USD.  Talk of a rate hike in December could roll it over.

WTIC – High volume reversal Tuesday, but Wednesday is the inventory report. Anything could happen here too, it is early in this daily cycle.

.

GOLD, SILVER, & MINERS

.

GOLD – Let’s compare what we have now in Gold to the MAY ICL again.  Gold bottomed in May, lingered for 2 days , and then surged higher on day 3. We could be on day 2, Fed minutes day 3?

SILVER – Silver tried to pop higher 1 day before Gold did in May. It popped on day 2. Tuesday may be Day 2, and it popped, but was held back by the 8sma.

GDX – Notice that in the May ICL, Miners bottomed ahead of Gold & Silver. They spent 5 or 6 days at the lows in May, scaring buyers out. As GOLD & SILVER kept dropping, the Miners didn’t (Sounds like what I’m seeing right now). Miners were barely moving at the MAY ICL, then suddenly on day 6 it surged higher. We are lingering at the lows for days now too, but Wednesdays Fed Minutes might get things moving.

Conclusion:  Many readers here have been with Chartfreak for a long time, and they’ve been through this bottoming process before. They’ve seen me walk and talk us through it by examining prior lows, looking at sentiment, cycle counts, and more. In the past, it would then take off upside and we all breath a sigh of relief.  At this point, I have to still expect upside movement soon.  Why?  The set up has not changed and it does match other ICL (lows) and how I’ve seen Miners act at those lows. I know that it drives people crazy waiting for movement higher, so I too have to look around and see if ‘things’ within the short term picture are still leaning to the bullish side.  Let’s take another quick look.

.

NSU – Another Miner says, ” I don’t care if Gold is threatening the lows, I put my lows in in mid October, and I am out of here!”

PAAS – Continues higher with Silver & Gold at the low.

  So Wednesdays Fed Minutes release could be the catalyst that lights the powder keg.  This could be a big day for the Precious Metals sector. A warning is that Gold & Silver could drop down, run the May stops , and then reverse higher into the close.  That would shake out just about every bull I know.   Many have gone short, others have ‘super tight stops’. We’ll just have to wait & see what Today brings.  That said, Wednesday could get tricky, Thursday the markets are closed in the U.S., we’ll see you for a 1/2 day of trading Friday. This should be over soon  🙂

.

~ALEX

.

REMINDER:  These are older charts that I posted in reports2 weeks ago.  These are continuing to break out and run higher. I thought that I would post a few older charts to show how they are performing, and then post a few that are setting up to break out now.

.

CLF _ at $7.40 it had moved quite a bit that week, but you can see there is plenty of upside potential.

CLF – A Bull flag was pointed out Monday, and it did break out.  The chart Above shows the upside potential.

AKS is actually now almost $9 now. The Steel stocks have been ripping higher. see  X, STLD, ZEUS, etc.

FCX – Breaking out after running from under $10 to $14, this also has strong upside potential for longer term ‘buy & hold’ investors.

HBM broke from a bull flag Monday. Look how it “Based out’ in October. Many did this, and it seems that MINERS may be doing that now.

HBM –  With this potential

CENX – This was a break out and could’ve been bought here for a longer term buy & hold. It is now at $11.

You can see how these have been running when they break upward.   So lets look at a few laggers that may play catch up. These can be Buy & Hold for longer term investors. Please do some research and see how they are doing with their earnings, etc.

.

SID – You may recall that we traded this in the spring, and once it got going, it took off!  It is breaking out, but there are gaps.  IF THE GAPS FILL, I will buy this.  You will see that it actually looks like CLF did on the weekly chart, and may not drop to fill those gaps.  This may just keep going.

SID WEEKLY –  I like the potential on this set up longer term. If you bought and held this from the springtime when it was first recommended, you endured a rough ride.

GMO –  So this is one just starting to move too. Moly stock at 32 cents, but the set up is looking healthy.

TGB Daily – This just broke out, gap filled and looks ready to move higher. It ran from $0.42 to $0.62

TGB WEEKLY – You can see the potential.

Those are just a few ideas in a sector that has been performing well.