November 10

/350 Comments/in /by

It has been a crazy week, that’s for sure. Odd differences are appearing in the markets this week. Let’s get right into the report and you’ll see what I mean.

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You probably heard about the Markets ripping out to new record highs if you were watching CNBC, and they were. This was the DJIA. The BKX ( banks) broke to new highs, the TRAN, RUT,IWM, SPX, and so on were rallying higher. This certainly looks like the start  of a bullish break out.

dow-jones-11-10

 

And then there was the NASDAQ.  Hmmm, that was quite the reversal lower on Thursday.The Nasdaq closed down 42.

nasdaq-11-10

Lets look at a couple of our strong Tech companies.  Hmmm? Apple?

aapl-11-10

Look at GOOGLES  RSI & MACD.

goog-11-10

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So we see an interesting development in the general markets with those divergences.  COPPER and STEEL continued blasting higher, while The XLU has been selling off since July.  I can’t imagine the Dow continuing higher and higher to 20,000 while the Nasdaq falls apart and continues downward. Things are out of sync at the moment. We’ll have to allow for some time and watch how things play out going forward.

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USD – The dollar has been running higher and has looked and acted very bullishly, but I’m expecting a solid drop from the USD. If we get a USD drop, that may be when Gold starts to gain some traction.  This could be a double top forming now.

usd-11-10

WTIC – Oil dropped on Thursday.  I am still seeing this as weak.

wtic-11-10

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– And now to our theme picture –

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GOLD – Gold is approaching the Oct lows and we are on day 24.  If the Oct lows were an ICL, they should not be taken out. We are within the timing for a dcl, but on day 25 Friday, this could drop a bit further. Please read the chart.

gold-11-10

GOLD Dec 3rd ICL. 

Side note:   Gold visited ICL (lows)In December 2015 before finally running higher. 

Unfortunately, Miners broke the lows later, and then catapulted higher.

gold-dec-2015-lows

SILVER – Silver is not falling apart , it is acting correctly.  Silvers chart still looks bullish and does indicate that an ICL was put in place in October.

silver-11-10

Look at Palladium –  Palladium & Silver are actually acting the way I expected Gold to.  This also should help those that say that they feel Oct was too early for an ICL to see that it is not too early. Golds ICL should be in place, So why isn’t GOLD acting this way? That is puzzling.

pall

Platinum has been weak in 2016 when compared to Gold, it even broke the May lows on this drop. Now even it looks to be holding up above the October lows a bit better than Gold?

plat

 

Summary :  The above charts of Silver and Palladium seem to prove that an ICL took place in October, but Gold is definitely acting weaker than one would expect. Copper and Steel are taking off like rockets too.  Is Gold going to play catch up after it shakes all the bulls off at these lows? It would seem so, but if the Oct lows are taken out on a closing basis, I would be forced to think that something is wrong with Gold.

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GDX – The drop for the past 2 days has been steep and painful. Could it be capitulation and an eventual exhaustion of sellers, or the start of a steeper sell off?  It could be either.  I actually do not see why this wouldn’t undercut the lows at this point. It would run the stops in a big way.

gdx-11-10

GDX WKLY –  The bigger picture shows that Miners have pulled back to the 50% area and reached oversold levels. It remains inside of a blue channel, thus it could drop to the 61.8%. The blue bands usually support GDX in Bull markets.

gdx-11-10-fib

GDX DAILY – In the past, when we had a high volume slam down day, the lows were often close by and within days. You can see that price did bounce around those areas and then formed a low.  In bear markets, GDX did cascade further, in Bull markets it holds up.

gdx-observations

 

ABX makes up a good part of the GDX.   ABX looked ugly Thursday with the news of a debt tender offer, but in the past the 1 day high volume slam down was often the capitulation low ( in the bull market).

abx-11-10

GDX –  GDX lost the 200sma and probably stopped out some traders today ( high volume). I’m hoping that the high volume was stops being run and smart money buying.  Since GDX went sideways for a month, it still is not oversold on a daily chart.

gdx-divergence

 

BPGDM – So far, Miners aren’t breaking down the way they did into the October lows. So far, so good.

bpgdm-11-10

 

I’m using this chart to show how devious the markets can be. They do sell off into the lows at times to scare bulls away, and then take off higher while traders are still too shook up to re-enter. Is that happening now, or has something really changed? 

bull-action

Conclusion: I must say that things are playing out in a rather confusing way in the metals area.  When I look at the chart of Palladium, that is exactly what I expected Gold to do. Palladium, Silver, Steel and Copper are quickly running higher ( some like Rocket ships) while Gold cannot gain any traction. Miners are paying the price for that too.  Gold has not broken the October lows, so it is not outright bearish, but people hate this sector again. Contrary thinking and cycle timing says that a low must be close. Let’s see how Friday closes out the week.

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~ALEX

350 replies
  1. Crystal
    Crystal says:

    You warned us this was going to be crazy and not to get emotional. I took a bit off the table on Wed in case I needed to average down… But I don’t intend to exit yet. I really appreciate your broad view of things. Last night I had another idea I posted … Does it make any sense?

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I believe in Gap fills. They don’t always fill right away, but it is uncanny how often they do.

      Just don’t tell anyone about the GDX gap down at the $20 area. The Gaps from 2008 didnt fill until last year, maybe that one wont for 7 or so years too.

  2. marinho
    marinho says:

    Alex,
    very good report, level headed and not emotional. I was very little invested as I was of the idea that Thanksgiving week is when the goldies bottoms year in and year out. I feel there could be a shake out real soon (today or Monday) and then back up we go. I put some money in to work before the close last night, but want more confirmation.
    Is October an ICL or we could have an undercut in November? And what do you make of Wednesday high in gold at around 1340? Is it the 2nd DC peaking on day 1 and here down we go? Lots of uncertainty right now, we probably need a few days to clear. But it seems we are real close to the bottom or the bottom is going to give way and lower we go?

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I personally believe the OCT lows are the ICL. The chart of Palladium was a good visual, and Silver bottomed then and has held up nicely. Even if Silver started to drop down, its’t it very right translated? 4th or 5th daily cycles don’t usually have the strength to go higher than day 8-12.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      By the way – Have you actually checked the charts to see if Gold bottoms thankgiving week ( Last week of November?) year in and year out? 😉

      I looked for our benefit, kind of a mixed bag of lows and highs at that time.

  3. Crawdaddy
    Crawdaddy says:

    Alex,not the best day for it,but congratulations on your 2nd. year. You should be very proud of yourself. I’m sure the majority of your readers are. Say, maybe another bottom support number for GDX? Am I seeing gap support @ $21.30?

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Thanks crawdaddy.

      Dec 4th is actually the 2 yr anniversary for the pay site, so maybe it’ll be a lot brighter then? – lol

      Looking back at March 2016, there is a lot of support in that area, but the Fib #s in the chart of the report also shows that we are at support, and that blue ribbon or cloud that is in one of the charts. That held as solid support in bull markets. It has the bottom broken out in Bear market declines.

  4. Cal Staggers
    Cal Staggers says:

    Good morning, Alex –

    Once again, I think you should rename your site to Sherlock Holmes. It looks easy, but only AFTER you’ve drawn clues from so many different areas that I would never know to look!

    I hesitate to bring this up, as it sounds “voodoo” – but here goes anyway. An author I follow set out to disprove any relationship between full moons and Gold – and he failed. While no “indicator” is 100%, he found a high correlation between full moons and either a reversal in gold -OR- an acceleration of existing trend. That info isn’t really actionable, since one doesn’t know which will occur – however, when combined with your observation that gold is so close to support (Oct. low), I’m thinking it would be wonderful if Monday morning’s full moon marks a gold bottom. Could GDX be sniffing that out today?

    So in the interest of full disclosure (thanks for the kind comments yesterday, y’all), I’m holding on to yesterday’s addition and dying to add to it, but likely will wait until Monday.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Thanks Cal,

      I know the Moon affects the tides and other things, but I cant say whether or not it nails the lows or has a ‘plus or minus x number of days’, etc. I’ve never looked into it.

      For some reason, GDX is up pre-market and Gold wasn’t , so maybe Miners are leading and gold will reverse soon too. Cycle wise, Gold is running out of time too.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      I may actually add today hoping to front rub any action Monday, but I am talking very small amounts of capital for now. Small, options – so downside risk is capped of we break down.

    • ray
      ray says:

      not sure but think that intra day we just went lower than the close – bottom of early October
      1251.9 is what I have on my chart as a close in october
      obviously this could be a wave 2 – if so it can not go lower than the 1243.2 of that same day
      Voodoo – I like that : )

  5. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    Obviously , we should see how many of these metals stocks look when they pull back ( AKS, X, CLF, VALE, CLD, FCX, CENX, AA, ETC) for possible future buy the dip opportunities.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Wait, you answered my question before I asked it. Now, that’s service! No, seriously, this run in COPPER is nuts – up 25% (why can’t YOU do that, Gold!!) last 2 weeks. Do you think that X, CLF and friends can take a run at 2016 highs or would you sell now knowing that the base metals have to take a break? Along with LABU, those two have kept me floating a bit this week. Phew.

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        They could do whatever they want. Break 2016 highs ( some have) or pull back and consolidate. I see Huge gaps below some of these, but look at CLF in May. That power gap never filled, so its a tough call.

        Trailing stop?

  6. Cason
    Cason says:

    Alex, agree on Silver. For the EW peeps – If one pulls up a weekly of silver going back to the December lows, you can easily see the move off the lows up in 5 waves (Wave 1) and the Aug-Oct correction in 3 waves (end of wave 2). Gold isn’t nearly as clear but certainly possible.

  7. Tammie
    Tammie says:

    Alex, you still feel strongly that we are in a bull market, correct? Hopefully that isn’t a stupid question at this point.

    • Bill
      Bill says:

      Its not a stupid question. We all should be questioning it. Remember my World War Z comment a few weeks ago?

      • Tammie
        Tammie says:

        I can’t recall what it was…..what was it? I’m trying to decide on whether to bail on alot of what I have….I have too many miners…..way too many….my basket is full and I’m a thinkin too full…

        • Tammie
          Tammie says:

          But I’ll be taking losses if I do, so….maybe if I just sell one everything will turn and start going up…:)

          • R Byram
            R Byram says:

            I know a group of really excellent traders who will not touch the market in the first hour. The call it the amateur hour. Not saying it is right or wrong, because I don’t know, but I’m going for a coffee.

          • Glmus
            Glmus says:

            This seems to be true when the metals pop in the first hour – I avoid it. Let’s hope it works when they poop in the first hour.

        • Bill
          Bill says:

          I said before, that when everyone is thinking the same thing, then everyone is probably wrong. In the Movie, they had what was called the 10th man. When the other 9 all agreed on something, it was the duty of the 10th man to consider the opposite. A few weeks ago when we were all thinking ICL, I made the comment.

  11. Dave
    Dave says:

    Gold just came within $0.15 of taking out its October low (then slightly reversed)… Let’s hope we hold…

  15. deshy
    deshy says:

    Alex, Does this work for cycles?

    Yearly CL seems to be around Nov/Dec i.e. where we are now. Last YC based on monthly charts is RT. Suggesting higher high on next YC. The current weekly cycle is LT. Should we not ‘expect’ it to fail? So basically I’m thinking that we take out 1243 but hold 1200. Then we go higher and yes at month 11 we are getting close. Over analyzing?

  19. R Byram
    R Byram says:

    here they go – ABX, HL IAG its like a really bad ice cream headache that just has to go away if you hang in there

  21. R Byram
    R Byram says:

    I love the fundamentals and business model for RGLD in the streaming business. Tons of upside torque to the price of gold and big growth. It just bounced nicely off the upward sloping TL.

  22. Bob Sheldon
    Bob Sheldon says:

    I really wonder at this point if the Trump presidency has recalibrated everything. And whether gold is just starting a long term bear market.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      The paradigm assumed by a Trump Presidency has been disproved, instead of fleeing to gold we know how higher rates and very quickly. Gold is currently subservient to the bond market.

  28. Ken
    Ken says:

    GOLD/GDX still working on wave of their wave 2 corrections……
    It is Not abnormal for wave 2 to hit 62% FIB retracements…….

  29. nancytheartist
    nancytheartist says:

    Alex Finviz has gold low at 1240.70. Would you please answer this question? :
    Edward Bernhart chartfreak1 • an hour ago
    Does it have to close at those lows to say we are yet to experience an ICL (new) in gold?

  31. Ken
    Ken says:

    Once Gold/GDX Closes back inside those bands those previous lows should hold and wave 3 begins…..
    Hedged until then…. fyi

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Tues night…was just too fast…it was gone so fast…I never got to hedge…ahhhhh…thought we were good and then

      • Ken
        Ken says:

        I did Not hedge until this morning …..
        I thought we were in the clear Tues. night also but not so……something changed Wed. morning after the election results, PPT and/or Reallocation by BB’s and Hedge funds based on Trumps ideals ?

        • Tammie
          Tammie says:

          I know, feel like it’s too late to get into JDST now…..I have decided I’m just not savy enough to be doing this.

        • Cason
          Cason says:

          Global interest rates reset higher and it’s killing gold. This may eventually be bullish like rate hike last Dec but remember that took a full month. I thought I missed hedge by yesterday AM. I was wrong.

  33. nancytheartist
    nancytheartist says:

    Finviz now has gold low as 1228.50. Though I feel sick to my stomach, I’m leaving and going out to lunch.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Everything that I wasn’t completely and absolutely buried in I’ve sold. Getting ready to sell winners in other sectors to raise cash in case that is ever needed.

  37. Ken
    Ken says:

    I know some do not want to hear this because of this wave 2 correction but this coming wave 3 is going to tremendously profitable in PM’s……..

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        At this point, this is the flush out stage. Stops are being run and selling begets selling ( And what is usually the case is that Big Money has flushed the stops and scoops up all the “on sale” Miners. You get a reversal candle at the low.

        Looking at a chart at past lows , you’ll see those reversal candles, but it never looks as bad on a chart as it feels if you are invested at the time of the wash out. And I do think that this is a wash out / flush out / stop run.

        As for that giant H&S pattern on GDX 1 yr chart? that became a little foreboding when the Oct lows were taken out. That needs to be monitored going forward.

  39. Glmus
    Glmus says:

    Trying to be optimistic, GDX/J have green 30 min candles (so far) and the 50 min candles could end up being hammers. I think we may need 15 minutes to complete these however.

    • deshy
      deshy says:

      I’m going to do something that got me into trouble last time (a la 2010). Hold on tight!! There is so much damage and pain that I figure it’s got to bounce soon (yes it could happen from lower) but I’d rather reassess on the bounce. Yep. Logic like that is why I got in trouble the last time too. :-))

      • nancytheartist
        nancytheartist says:

        I am doing the same. Holding my positions. I have one account left from back then that I held….just held and hoped eventually it would be green again [some have been and I got out…some others …NO, maybe never green again , just less red.] Well, now I have another whole new account in matching red! I’m holding…I am a patient person…usually.

  42. Glmus
    Glmus says:

    I am getting lots of 30 buy signals. JNUG is down to -15%. My account is less negative (boy, I never thought I would brag about this).

  43. ray
    ray says:

    So what they did – they took out everybody who was short on their stops in the week on election night and today they are taking out everybody who was on the long side ! GENIOUS but it all did cost us a fortune

    • SonOfGud
      SonOfGud says:

      M.. its great that you should get ‘the Box’ out (thus bringing all the boys to the yard) in this hour of need 😉

  46. deshy
    deshy says:

    wow!!! Jut simply wow! This is certainly volatility at it’s best. MUX now down 5%…a lot of hombres just got whipsawed out some good positions today. No matter how it ends…

  47. SonOfGud
    SonOfGud says:

    cannot believe that mofo AUMN.. sold yesterday expecting it to join the bloodbath… and sweet FA drop today.
    the ones i hung on to ,, eg. MUX, dropped -13%.

  53. Glmus
    Glmus says:

    JNUG and GDX/J have finish nice 30 min candles and
    the last 60 min candles are hammers. Still would like to see more goose. But getting higher highs on the 60 min so far. AND my account is less negative. I sold HL earlier at 6.03, bought it back at 6.14.

  54. deshy
    deshy says:

    Actually finally got the kahunas to look at my account after 3days of avoiding. It actually look quite pretty! Almost like Xmas…just without the green. 🙁

  57. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    Just thinking out loud : I think that some Miners like AUMN ( green almost all day) TRQ, NSU, and a few more are trying to tell us that this bull run isn’t over. They couldn’t sell them off on a day like this? A wash out day.

    Look at the charts of NSU & TRQ for the past 3 days. Totally ignored Gold.

    And NAK – it tried to fill that gap, but gave up & went higher.

    I like what I am seeing.

    • R Byram
      R Byram says:

      USD futures seems to have topped over the past hour and are dropping. They started the clock today at 98.83 and now they are coming down and at 98.97. The only red candles I want to see for the rest of the day.

  59. SimonM
    SimonM says:

    Hi folks,

    I am new here. Been a very pleased subscriber for 6 months and haven’t posted yet.
    Haven’t chosen the happiest day for my first post…but good and bad news maybe….

    GDXJ has closed its June gap @ 34
    HUI closed a small April gap @ 180

    Surely GDX has to close the gap @ 20?

    But after that they are likely to bottom IMO, or hopefully a decent run up.

    I really hope so.

      • SimonM
        SimonM says:

        That is a really powerful argument. Goodness I hope you are right!!

        If the ICL comes over the next few days I really hope it looks like the sort of upside reversals we saw in 2008!!

        ——————————————–

          • SimonM
            SimonM says:

            Funny, yes, thats how it seemed at the time!

            I agree. A fall of this ferocity needs a while to level out, so I go with January or some time next year also. Similar action to last December/january.
            Only concern is on some of my miners charts the price action has broken down out the falling wedges/chanels, equivalent to GDX breaking below its lower channel line at around 19/20. if that happens….yikes!
            Anyway…have a great weekend!

            ——————————————–

  63. Glmus
    Glmus says:

    Only about half of the hourly hammer candles that I mentioned earlier have held. Not much joy there.
    A small ray of hope. The H&S that Alex showed on the 5 min is not looking good, but may still be possible. SoG suggested at least a 76.4% retracement on the right shoulder and we are there.

      • Tammie
        Tammie says:

        Yeah, I just pulled up one of my accounts….really really really wishing I had gotten out of market weeks before the election and stayed out until February, instead of buying more….

  66. RM
    RM says:

    this a full debacle and these things look like have alot further to go.. i mentioned RIC.. guess it makes sense now. this sector is for people that like pain and hate money which i am the ceo of that club.

  69. Carlnetscouts
    Carlnetscouts says:

    You would think that the institutions that have profited from this will be cashing in and closing positions prior to the weekend. That would create some sort of positive move towards the close, but we’ll see about that.

  70. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    Refresh Update : I am not recommending buying, This is the mind of a day trader, not a long or medium term investor. One would buy JNUG hoping for a rally into the close. DAY TRADERS WOULD DO THIS WITH A TIGHT STOP knowing that this could go south fast.
    .

    It does offer hope if we see a buying rally into the close. The daily would then be a possible reversal candle.
    .
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f8ed2b709b458dba3b698b358f3b2cf099dca669f99f8f6f3f88d15e113ab7e3.jpg

  71. alain
    alain says:

    us dollar Index looks great ,unless we see drastic change, gold will retest 2015 December low before you know it, so extreme
    precaution required …….

  72. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    I don’t remember if it was yesterdays report? Where I said about GDX , ” the lows are so close, I dont know why they wouldn’t run the stops at this point” . I said that because its such an easy way for big money to gain strong hand position if that’s what they want.

    Well I hate to deliver bad news, but I was just looking at GOLD. We are so close to the MAY lows. I dont know why they wouldn’t run those. They just ran Miners right out of the market.
    .
    Refresh
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/541c312c4aaaf0e85a3e9823964263cb0165409166d1fd015b2dcd85ef783104.jpg

  73. alain
    alain says:

    one more thing, just to have a positive note before the week-end , this could be the trade of the century, make sure you keep
    some dry powder .

  75. Ken
    Ken says:

    I wonder if i should even tell ya all this conversation I just had with my “Personal Banker” at JP Morgan Chase Bank, it relates to my “theory” of Manipulation:
    He asked if he could manage some “funds” for me thru JP Morgan at a 1% annual fee…..hmmmm thinking to myself here is my opportunity….I told him Absolutely !!!…. with One Caveat: That He Mirrors the trades that JP Morgan Chases’ Trade Desk in NYC makes to the letter.
    Anyone dare guess at his answer ?

  76. alain
    alain says:

    buy JNUG around 5.80 and sell it at 9.50, if this opportunity presents itself when the market is open , make sure you sell before the close , maybe next week .

  77. Tammie
    Tammie says:

    So IF the news is right in saying that a Trump Presidency looks like higher interest rates are coming…..then is there any chance this will turn around? I know the argument for gold rising at same time as dollar…but….?

  79. Aniket
    Aniket says:

    I got stopped out on my positions Today. I am now more confused than ever. What’s next? Buy? Wait for swing low? What if they run stops on gold below may lows? I am just not getting the right entry point here.

  80. SonOfGud
    SonOfGud says:

    ok Q for Bill & Ken…
    is this a falling knife?… and is there blood on the streets yet.?
    i would say …..yes … 😀

  81. Ken
    Ken says:

    This all about Bonds currently….imo.
    If Bonds continue to head south:
    Will the Fed raise rates on Dec. 14 ?
    Or
    Will the Fed Need a QE offering ?

  82. alain
    alain says:

    Trump will start his Presidency with around 20 trillion of debt , at the same time he wants to rebuild the infrastructure all over USA , more money spending, I don’t see how they can raise rate , it ‘s more likely more money printing , am I wrong anyone ?

    • Edward Bernhart
      Edward Bernhart says:

      What if you eliminated a couple of Federal agencies like Commerce, and Education and called back the EPA? Giving most of this authority to the states.

    • nancytheartist
      nancytheartist says:

      Trump is an oddity in politics….no one knows what we’ll do…and he has Congressional majorities so he can actually get things done….it will be fascinating to watch. He may have some unusual solutions.

  84. kathleenchow
    kathleenchow says:

    I’m trying to be objective like our fearless leader. I’m seeing pockets of strength eg. NAK, MUX, AUMN. Am I being too optimistic?

  85. Glmus
    Glmus says:

    Earlier someone suggested that this is simply a wave 2 pullback. So I slapped Fibs on all of my stocks and they are mainly 50% down from the bull run from Dec/Jan. The only problem is that I didn’t buy any of them in Dec/Jan. All my purchases were at pullbacks from the Aug top. No wonder it doesn’t look like a simple wave 2 pullback to me.
    Thanks to all for a great day. I did not plan to spend my day at the screen all day. I have been fasting for a blood test since 6 last evening. But you folks are such great company I couldn’t leave.
    I just checked my account and it looks like there is a little rally going to wipe out part of a second terrible day loss.
    Should I say I look forward to Monday?
    Have a great weekend if you can. It’s only money. 🙂
    Cheers, Gary

  86. Carlnetscouts
    Carlnetscouts says:

    Thank God this day is over. And the week. The low is very near. The last two days may have been the largest GDX volume days ever. If that’s not capitulation I don’t know what it is….

    • Cal Staggers
      Cal Staggers says:

      Amen to both of those!

      I exited JDST mid-day and began trying to start a position in JNUG but stopped out with a spanking at the close.

      GDX/J ended so weak that it just seems like there is more downside or sideways to go – however, we should get a great buying opportunity at some point. Maybe early next week?

      Have a great weekend, all

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      But here is the issue. We have a rate hike in 1 month. What did gold do PRIOR to rate hike last year? What is Gold doing today when rates are going higher? I think the ACTUAL rate hike could put a low in just as it did in 2015. But until then do we sell into rallies? I mean, we can’t keep this up for 30 days. I know it wouldn’t be straight down, but negative action for a month and we won’t make it. My original argument to the OCT ICL and wave 2 end theory with that I couldn’t reconcile the proximate daily cycle timing with the Known Fed dates. Clearly I was right to be on guard but I didn’t hedge correctly even though I knew to do that.

  87. Cason
    Cason says:

    Sold last 2/3 of LABU just before the close. I think XBI continues to test highs but after a day like today, I’m booking profits when and where I can. No reason to push it for a few more cents.

    7/7 on LABU trades in 2016. But dear God don’t ask about my record in JNUG.

  88. alain
    alain says:

    just came across Potash a few minutes ago , symbol POT , have look at it very promising , look at the weekly chart .

  89. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    I just deleted a huge comment. I’ll discuss more in the weekned report, have a good one

    I took a good hit on this drop too. It was not supposed to break Oct lows, based on Silver, lat, Palladium, etc – so I got caught too.

    We will make it back : )

    • SonOfGud
      SonOfGud says:

      you too Alex.
      that was my worst week since April 2013!
      but unlike then,… coz im here, surrounded by you rabble,.. i feel more able to jump back in at reversals 🙂

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Alex, it is noticed and respected that you put your money where your mouth us (unlike Ken’s JP Morgan story). We’ll have to stay a bit frostier next time. I can’t think of last sell off like this where I didn’t hedge quickly enough. Guess I just had my bull goggles on.

    • Johnny
      Johnny says:

      Question for you Alex. Hello Alex. I am so sorry for everyone’s loss in the markets this week. I have been working and haven’t read the ton of comments yet. I went back to 2008/2009/2010 to try to find the date(s) we mirror right now. I am having a little trouble finding that point. I know we have touched on that many times sometimes transposing the dates. If its not a lot of trouble, can you help me in the right direction? Thank you.

      • Cason
        Cason says:

        Hey Johnny, that is exactly what I was trying to do last night. Would love to hear if you or any others agree. I was looking at GDX 5 year chart looking for oversold by RSI (5) and absolute magnitude of lower BB crash.

        Top answer? Nov ’14. I remember that low like it was last night, man. Most oversold conditions since the 2013 catastrophe, a rally, double bottom, huge rally and and roll over into 2015. Next is July ’15. 3rd place would be Dec ’15/death of the bear. All of these oversold ratings on RSI led to at least a 3 point GDX rally. But that is in the bear market. Not sure the reaction now. Seems we should have some snap back. At this point it is at least mathematics. I ain’t guaranteeing Monday, but it can’t stay this oversold forever.

        Here’s what we as a group need to figure out. Was that/or Monday- the end of this ICL drop?? Or can this bad period extend until the next rate hike? Did the US election really change the outlook for interest rates globally or is this a quick flash in the plan over-reaction? Once we know that, we either sell the pop and wait for clarity or we know we’re “golden” to stay long. Issue being most of us are already pretty long. I was raising cash Friday just in case. What you think, J?

  91. nancytheartist
    nancytheartist says:

    To all my fellow chartfreaks who are probably in as much financial pain as I am today….try this…just pull up a 6 month chart and a 4 year chart for each of your holdings. Get a little perspective. It may take more time, but most have plenty of room way up there! I’m doing it now.

    • Tammie
      Tammie says:

      Ok, well, I pulled up MUX… 4 yr….the first thing that jumped out at me was the pop up in April of 2014….how that went above the highs all through 2014…..so it could have looked like the bear was over……but…..then a lower high in June/July….then it kept falling through 2015 – was that what I was supposed to notice? : 🙂

      • nancytheartist
        nancytheartist says:

        I have SO MANY stocks that I just finished and closed up my charts. In general, 4 years ago the majority of my stocks were up way beyond my cost basis. Some of my miners are newer and were at their highest just recently. But in general, I see that they have plenty of gain up above. I also like to look at the vol on the 6 mos….I like to see days of red getting less…I feel like the bad is wearing out and a turn is soon. I also like a tool called Williams % ? [can’t remember its name exactly Tammie and I don’t want to open again as I am getting ready to go make myself a darn nice drinkie-poo! But I like to watch that as it seems to turn just when things are starting to change. So if it is crashed down to the bottom and starting to curl up, I have observed things usually turn up. Have a good weekend.

    • Tammie
      Tammie says:

      Wow, look at a 5 yr. of AG…..! What a fall this time huge! Not sure what that means in the grand scheme of things?

      • nancytheartist
        nancytheartist says:

        When the big manipulators get ready, we’ll see the sector rise. I am a believer in patience long term….but am impatient waiting!

      • Cason
        Cason says:

        Ok, I have completely edited all prior links to comments to say “Ken AND MARIA” had it correct. I’ve also mailed you a hammer. Next time I don’t seem to get it, can you use that to get my attention? :O

        So, you saved your account from destruction yesterday? Good work. I need renew my membership to Maria’s Box Charting Service!

        No, seriously some charts are thrown up pretty whimsically. I’m the guy who needa large flashing red lights saying BEWARE!!! UGH!!

        • Maria
          Maria says:

          no … i am red in my positions as well… up large for 2016 .. but down from my peak unfortunately .. but .. this is the biznezzzz … if we could predict 100% of the moves we sure wouldn’t be here ;o)
          good news is …. there’s always another trade…
          M

  93. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    WORKING ON THE WEEKEND REPORT
    .
    HERE IS A CHART from that report to show that Gold is at resistance overhead resistance and a form of support too. You will understand this chart better in the report, because it is #3 of 3 charts on this subject.

    A break out higher above that resistance from here could be huge ( Wave 3 for you E.W. fans) and this shake out period could be just that. Inflation may be coming, and this is to shake off the weak hands.

    This report needs extensive research and tons of time, so I dont expect it to be out until Sunday night. There will be over 44 charts so far. Enjoy your weekend!
    .
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/69c61e500501fd07c284fd19d50debdccd9fa22f48912e647e6dfc99515d2bc9.jpg

Comments are closed.