Oct 16th Weekend Report

SPX -I believe that the general markets are going to roll over soon.

USD – The USD is due for a drop into a dcl, but the more that it stretches higher, the more bullish it starts to look in the bigger picture. This daily chart is overbought and this could be a false break out and drop below the break out line, but…

USD WEEKLY – This is a break out from a downtrend and the MACD is stacking up bullishly. If we get a drop into a daily cycle low now, I look at this and think, “Will that simply be a back test of this break outon this weekly chart?”  I will be watching the dollar going forward.  It is still Lower highs and lower lows, but if that changes  ( break to higher highs ) it needs monitoring and need to see if that affects other areas of the markets.

WTIC – I expected Oil to move sideways and form a handle. This may be a bull flag.

WTIC – This looks Bullish on the weekly chart, week 10 is higher than week 2.  The MACD is bullishly aligned.

WTIC WEEKLY -This inverse H&S  IS continuing playing out.

NATGAS – The WKLY chart is pushing against resistance, but this is bullishly climbing higher. Recent volume at resistance is encouraging and necessary.

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GOLD, SILVER, & MINERS

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The COT levels are back where they were in May at that ICL, and GOLD is late in the daily timing for a low, so this looks good. 

GOLD – Day 30 or day 5? Follow through higher above 1267.60 places a swing low in place.  A flash sell off and then reversal is great too.  We are in the timing for a low. See the chart.

SILVER – Silver placed  swing low, but it is not confirmed yet. I want to see a break above the 10sma as follow through.

GDX – On Oct 6th, I started to tell everyone that GDX bottoms in a way that looks easy to buy, but it is NOT.  I said that we could see the same type of bottom form around the 200sma, that we saw at the 50sma. It scares away buyers looking for support in that area…

And there you go,  twins.  Easy to buy, right?  And the ‘buy’ triggered on this chart as shown on the next chart.

GDX OCT 12th – This system triggered a ‘buy’ on Oct 12th ( lower section).  It is scary because it often triggers before a strong move higher.  In the past it has been very accurate. The progress since this cross is seen on the above chart in the lower section.

GDX – Day 27 either was the low and this was Day 3 on Friday, or if we drop and extend this daily cycle to the limits.  I believe that any drop will be quick and then rebound.

Please recall that I said that $22.08 was a measured move that is possible too.  It also leads to a back test. SO a quick slam down and recovery is still possible, but that tag of the channel is enough.

I used this chart in a report last week to show that the GDX:GOLD ratio was turning up.  I wrote in the middle of this chart that a cross of the 8sma is a buy for some technical traders. We did not have a cross over yet at that point.

If Gold drops or Miners rise faster than Gold, we’d get the cross over. We have one but it is dropping to back test. Monday will see if this holds or gives way. 

So honestly, not much has changed since the reports through out last week.  We are waiting for the same thing in the precious metals, a confirmed low and a push higher.  Oil and NATGAS remain bullish,  but The USD is looking a tad more bullish and the SPX looks like it wants to drop.  I am focused on the Precious metals for the immediate future, because we are deeper into the timing for a low in Gold, Silver, and Miners, and I think that this is where some nice gains will be made next.  I expect a run higher very soon, even this week. Yes, I’m tired of waiting too 🙂

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~ALEX

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SIDENOTE:

 I have seen some look at the BPGDM and try to use it for timing Miners lows or to say that it needs to reach a certain level of bearishness before lows can be in place.  This does not act as a timing tool, and I will point out just 3 instances here that show that.

1. In the summer 2015, Miners were TRASHED and the BPGDM was about as low as it gets, then some Miners started to recover before the GDX lows were really in place.  SO while we were looking for the LOWS in GDX  ( they came in mid January 2016)  BPGDM was rising, not falling. Some Miners were already being accumulated  BEFORE THE ICL.
   

2. Look at the MAY 2016 ICL.  If someone says that the BPGDM has to drop lower before an ICL can be in place,  then why did it hold up so well at the May ICL?  We are already lower than the May ICL, isnt that enough? We are almost at the January 2015 ICL level  (but we do not have to go there).
   

3. Not shown, but after the 2008 lows, the BPGDM did NOT drop back to where it was in the 2008 ICL. Not even close. Currently, the BPGDM has dropped as much as it needs to to remove bullish sentiment.