Window Of Opportunity

Lets talk about the current window of opportunity

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WTIC – Wednesday I said that this break out looked legit.

WTIC –  And Thursday we saw follow through, but…

This is what I really want you to see …

I want you to see what this follow through has done for some of these stocks. This also causes me to believe that the move is real and that our other energy stocks should have some upside potential.

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WEDNESDAYS REPORT SHOWED WPX –

WPX –  WEEKS worth of selling, gone in 2 days!  (  BY THE WAY – I expect Miners will do this too, once the ICL is in). 🙂

OAS FROM WEDNESDAYS REPORT-

OAS –  WEEKS and WEEKS of selling, more than erased in 2 days (  BY THE WAY – I expect Miners will do this too, once the ICL is in) 🙂

CPE – BACK AT HIGHS in 2 days after weeks of selling. By the way, I think that Miners will do this after an ICL is in place too. 🙂

SM – Do you see a theme here?

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I keep hearing the T.V. analysts saying, “Fade this move, it’s not real”.  That scares people away, but I am seeing really big moves in 2 days, and so far some of these are already back at the 2016 highs 2 days later.  This is a window of opportunity if Oil is going to continue higher.

SIDENOTE: In February I was buying all of the beaten down stocks, knowing that short covering would cause all of them to rally. EVERYTHING was doubling and tripling.  Now you need to be a bit more selective on the ‘buy and hold’ trades, due to the debt levels and problems that some of the juniors have experienced.  I will take these trades coming out of the sell off lows, but I may not hold them long term.  Companies like AREX, CWEI, RICE, OAS, WPX, and so on are staying up at the 2016 highs, I would be comfortable holding these as long as they act correctly and we are moving higher. I will cover more on this in the weekly report. Lets look at some more charts, not all are back at new highs. Are they going to be ok?

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AREX FROM WEDNESDAY, that was a pretty good sell off. I sold this on the break of the 10sma and trend-line, but…

AREX– Nice follow through.  I Sold AREX weeks ago before this big sell off, as it broke the 10sma and a trendline, and I felt good about that. 

It is now back where I sold it!  🙁

For the sake of time, I’m just going to ask you to look up the following charts on your own if you are interested in seeing how some of these are playing out.  I like many of their set ups.

ECA – SM- NOG – WG – BAS – QEP – (SN!)  – LPI , MRO ( Also back near the highs)

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DNR – Some stocks,  like DNR, didn’t have follow through on day 2.  Is that OK?  Yes, I believe they will move higher as long as Oil continues higher. These stocks have ‘stalled’ like this in the past. I own DNR.

PACD – A chart that I posted in the comments section this morning. It closed under the 50sma, but I do believe that this will continue higher. It had 1.3 million in volume by the end of the day.  PACD fell back to the lows at $3 and in the past it did run well from here.

Did you notice that this doubled and tripled on the past runs of March and June? No Guarantees here though 🙂

So I do think that the companies that didn’t have follow through Thursday can still go higher.  If you entered a position, just keep an eye on it and honor stops as usual. For others, maybe it is a buying opportunity. Again, as long as we honor our stops, these can be good risk / reward set ups.  Lets do a quick market review.

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SPX – more chop – chop – chop. It is concerning that it cannot break out and sold off on heavy volume below the 50sma.  A break below the lower trend line could lead to a serious sell off.

BKX – Lost the 50sma again too.

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GOLD –  Same old chop chop chop.  Gold popping to $1350 still isn’t anything big if you look at this chart. I want to see GOLD & MINERS drop into an ICL, and I have been calling for late September / early October for months.  We are running out of late Septmeber  : )   I do think that it will be a good buying opportunity, especially for the Miners.  Look at this sideways action,  that can lead to big moves after putting everyone to sleep.

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And like I pointed out with those energy stocks, some Miners may make their multi-week losses back in 2 days.Some are not selling off very much with all of the sideways chop anyway.

I already pointed out GORO.  How bullish is this for a Miner?

This is not bearish either, this is usually a buy. It’s at the 50sma, I may actually take a position even if I expect a selling period in Gold. I’m getting the feeling that some of these are going to run higher and just do a normal pull back when Gold finally dips down.

GSV-  Breaking out.  See also THM.

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That is your Friday update. I am thinking that ENERGY is set up to go higher, while  the rest of the markets still chop around.  Trading has been SO GOOD in 2016, but I know that the the trading & set ups that we look for ( low risk) have been light this past 2 months.  We have simply been in a period of choppy sideways markets.  They  are not usually a good place to take positions, and riding the ups and downs can be frustrating.  Rest assured, we will make solid gains with some solid trade set ups soon.  There is always another trade coming along, and we will find the low risk set ups to profit from future moves higher. For now, ENERGY looks promising.  You can enter some of these that remain near to their lows, and also some of those companies with 2 day bursts may pull back and offer a nice entry too. OAS, AREX, etc. may stall near the highs.   Enjoy your Friday trading and the weekend!  I should be able to get the weekend report out by Sunday night this weekend.  Thanks for being here at chartfreak.

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~ALEX