September 25 Weekend Report

I mentioned in a few of my August reports that things could remain a bit choppy going forward, especially if we are entering the timing for an ICL in Gold & Miners.  We saw this in both OIL and Precious Metals markets in the past, and I will again point that out in this report.  That type of price action can be frustrating, because the trade set ups quickly break down and the price action becomes more or less sideways. Lets take a look at what we currently see and discuss what we could expect.

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SPX – Our daily chart had a possible Island Bottom Reversal, but the gap closed and it lost the 50sma. This is not overly concerning at this point, but I liked the idea of an island bottom.

SPX WKLY – This still looks like a great weekly set up.

THE USD – The big picture still looks like a topping process.

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WTIC WEDNESDAY SEPT 21–  This looked like follow through to a day 33 dcl, but I did mention that it was on the early / yet acceptable timing for one. The oil Daily cycles can last 30-50 days.

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Thursday had follow through, and Friday it rolled over.  🙁  I am thinking that we might still have the dcl ahead, because we’re on day 37 as of Monday.  This is that choppy trading that is very hard to make money in in the short term. A break below the ‘possible day 33’ lows could be the dcl, not a break down.  I will watch for the Energy stocks to show strength even if Oil is dropping.

WTIC WKLY –  Still OK.

AS A REMINDER:

This is the chart where I pointed out 2 areas that the day to day choppiness lasted for months and be makes it difficult to profit from.  It does NOT call into question the Bull Market longer term. This is what you may be experiencing in Oil & Energy right now.

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NATGAS DAILY – Back test of the break out in progress? Still very bullish.

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NATGAS WEEKLY –

GOLD, SILVER, MINERS

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GOLD DAILY – GOLD is dropping Sunday night as I write, I am watching the 50sma at $1336 for possible support, but it has been taken out so far.  Friday was day 15 and also Gold is basically choppy. If the $1357 upside is taken out, we would be seeing a right translation possibly happening. A drop form here could lead to an ICL.  This chart actually looks more bullish than bearish. Lets see what happens Monday.

GOLD WKLY – We saw a wkly reversal last week. The RSI didn’t break down, and the trend line held. This also is more bullish ( at this point) than bearish so far.  Let me remind you…

REMINDER – I used this chart on Sept 19 to show what a flash drop into an ICL could look like. Last week Gold spiked higher and not lower, but since Miners didn’t follow, I want to keep this fresh in our minds.

SILVER –

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GDX –  Please note that GDX ran up to the 50sma and was rejected last week and the week before. A break above the 50 sma would be quite bullish. A break down would lead to an ICL in my opinion. I would want cash on hand to buy those lows. Look at the month of MAY on this chart.  That was the last break down into an ICL.

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This is a chart that I used recently to point out volatility or choppiness that we have seen in the last Bull market for the HUI.  JUST READ THE RED WRITING AND RED OBLONG SHAPE.  If we are doing that now, trading will remain difficult and hard to explain.

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At this point, we should address the fact that we did have some pretty strong looking individual Miners. Lets see how they did during the Friday drop.

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GORO – Break out and back test? Even a drop to $6.50 is fine ( 10 sma), but if it gives up the entire break out,  then we are likely not in bullish mode.

RGLD – This also went back to prior highs when we were looking for a possible drop. Fridays drop across that sector brought this down too. I’d like to see the 50sma and the blue trend line hold Monday. The chart has bullish divergence. 

EXK – The 50sma needs to hold on EXK, because the break out failed so far.

SO that is where we are.  We are seeing continued indecision, volatility, choppy markets.  Even if the Precious Metals Markets sold off, I believe that it would lead to a great buying opportunity because the sentiment is bearish and we are due timing-wise for an ICL.  Oil is within the timing for a DCL, and if we do not have one in place, I think we are close.  When OIL acts better than the Energy stocks, It just doesn’t seem to have the follow through needed to continue higher.  When Energy stocks lead the way, Oil seems to have follow through.  From here, a further drop in Oil may be a good buy for the stronger stocks of CWEI, RICE, REI, OAS, WPX, AREX, AXAS, etc. 

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The general markets are a bullish set up, we’ll see what happens going forward.  Elections could affect the US markets, but I’ve been watching certain stocks  ( and mentioning them here)  like  CY, FNSR, FIT, TWTR, GPRO, MU, AMZN, and others,  and they are doing very well.

~ALEX

EXTRA STUFF

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I have also already mentioned that X, AKS, ZEUS, CLF, FCX, SID, AA, etc and other commodity stocks were breaking out from down trends.  They are now pulling back lightly and could become buying opportunities also. These are just a couple of charts, they almost all look to be pulling back in an orderly manner.  I will keep an eye on them.

ZGNX –  Break out, back test, and follow through above the 200sma. I do not know the company, but the weekly chart looked great too.  This could be bought with a stop above the 50sma.

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GPRO – The daily chart shows a solid routine of progress for months now.  It re-gained the 50sma and the 200sma after a steep ugly sell off from almost $100 down to $8+.   It could just continue higher, but I think that pullbacks could be considered a buy if the general markets remain bullish. Check out the weekly chart.

GPRO WKLY – The bigger picture does show a recovery in progress and not a lot of resistance to the left side .

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Another sector that remains bullish, Bulk Shippers:  SALT, NM, SB, SBLK, NAT, DSX, SHIP, TOPS, etc –  Still looking bullish, I am watching this sector too.

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I also decided to re-post some charts from past reports, because they still apply.  The immediate short term direction for GOLD & MINERS is still a bit hazy. These charts can remind us what a choppy market sector can do to the downside and yet still remain bullish longer term.

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GOLD – On Sept 14 we could get a bounce and a sharp drop into an ICL.  Still a valid path.

I used this chart to show that GDX IN THE PAST ( 2013 & 2014)has run up to the 50sma, then it has been rejected and then dropped to a dcl or ICL. GDX has just done that very thing so far.

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See you on Monday!