ENERGY AND PRECIOUS METALS
The OIL and NATGAS inventory reports were released on Thursday morning, It looks like we can continue making money from the Energy set ups.
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WTIC –
NATGAS –
Many of the strong Energy stocks pointed out here weeks or months ago are still performing very well. Do you remember when CWEI was $6.00? Then the buy at $10 and $15 in CWEI? CWEI hit $72 today. WHEW! CHK was up almost $1, and REI, RICE, ECA, WPX, MRO, ETC ETC are still climbing. Lets look at a few charts…
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RICE- This was our ‘Buy the pullback test near $24’
RICE – Back test complete and moving higher. At $28, it’s not the 50- 100 % gainers we are used to in the riskier stocks, but for the conservative investors, these are reliable.
REI –
ECA – Still running to new highs
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So now lets look at some of the smaller junior Energy stocks. As I have mentioned in the past, these can shoot up 20%, 50% even 80 % in 1 day ( BAS was up 82% Thursday), but some of these can be debt heavy and struggling. Buyer beware, do due diligence or buy a small basket as your own little higher risk/reward etf. Sell if it goes against you, etc etc . Over time, I personally have pocketed HUGE gains this way in Energy and Miners, even if 1 or 2 drop quickly.
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MEMP – This set up looks ready to go. I have been holding MEMP for a while, but as price moves into the apex, it often POPS and runs. This is holding the 50sma.
PGH – This set up is bullish , so I posted this here earlier this week, showing divergence.
PGH – This was setting up heading into an apex too, and suddenly volume began to swell. I was still recommending buying and mentioned that I added to my position again.
PGH – The POP out of the apex, this can back test or just keep running. A Back test is obviously a buy if support holds.
PGH WEEKLY – And this is the updated big picture. I posted a weekly chart weeks ago too, pointing out the squeeze play and real upside potential. Notice that PGH remains oversold on a weekly.
LGCY – The 200sma and the 50sma have joined on this long consolidation. I bought this break out today and any who bought the break of the 50sma with me in April probably remember that it tripled and practically quadrupled very quickly after a back test. I’m not suggesting that that will be repeating this time around, but I do expect a good move higher if this gets going.
LGCY WKLY – Very Oversold and looks to be breaking higher. That also looks like a quick Shake out on this weekly chart. And buy the way – I bought LGCY about a month ago and I got shook out! 🙂 I took a small loss then, but I’ll make it back many times over if I am right this time.
ALJ – On Aug 4th I was expecting a break out. Earning were released and it was moving higher. I expected a quick run to former highs. There was a little patch of resistance to the left .
ALJ – Wow that resistance really bogged this down in the $7-$8 area. It consolidated sideways , but has been a slow & steady mover. The last 2 pops were followed by a bull flag. I think that ALJ is now above resistance and could move nicely from here. At least it is not dropping down much.
NE – This chart set up is bullish if it breaks out from this wedge. NE may or may not be doing well. I know nothing about this off shore drilling and storage company fundamentals. I like the chart, it quickly doubled from here in February, but that could have been a lot of short covering. I have no position.
I am going to just put a long list of Energy stocks at the end of this report. I use a list like that to look up their charts and see if they are setting up bullishly. It may just give you something to look at during the trading day if you are bored. Some may be able to use it, some may not. Don’t worry about it if you dont look up charts, this is for the more active traders by request. I posted a list like this before.
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GOLD & MINERS –
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The precious metals sector is early in the daily cycle . I would expect another pop and then we can see if it runs and turns this into a bullish reversal or will it roll over into an ICL?
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GOLD -Gold could drop further to tag the 10sma.
GDX – GDX has dropped to the gap twice. It could also drop a bit further and tag the 10sma & fill the gap.
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Enjoy your Friday trading and your weekend!
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~ALEX
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Thank you Alex. Great to see this on a Friday. You are too good to us!
Thanks Johnny – Have a good weekend 🙂
Tx boobie
Ur welcome Sophia
Thanks! Still in PGH and glad I held (thx to you and Miller 🙂
Another energy to maybe add: FELP?
Also have been watching CLF and hoping that history repeats itself (where I marked and where it is now?$
Hi Crystal,
I was watching FELP too, but I wont buy it because the volume is all too often under 75,000 until more recently.
I like CLF above the 10sma
Thanks! And yes summerfun is over. — though am going to view today’s drop as a gift and add to CLF and PGH! Patience is something I happen to be good at!
Another day another good gift to fill those gaps…thanks Alex! you keep our eye on what to look for.
May buy some xiv on S & P if they give a signal at 2140-50 level. short term though using 30 minute chart.
should have been in chk with you…..oh…well…maybe another gift?…
Hey Shermo,
Yes, CHK has been good lately. Buying the next pull back may be a good one. I have others that I sold that I really regret not re-buying. I still wish held on to CWEI – that s my biggest regret selling & not getting back in on the dips, when I knew that it was a winner from $6 to $30.
But there is always another trade : )
Have a good one!
Did TRX really just drop right to that 10sma, and then bounce back ?
refresh
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TPLM shot up.16%
LGCY just went green
bought TPLM yesterday @ 0.24 🙂
old fav.. provided it doesnt go bankrupt on me!
Its racing today with good volume.
6 month chart, it could be breaking out with this volume.
please god let it be so..
i could do with another 500%er
There she goes…TPLM may be the BAS & BCEI of yesterday 🙂
6 million in the first hour? Good Stuff
is it a death rattle though?
Cason reckons so with BAS
to tell you the truth, I saw that volume before I posted & jumped in for a quick scalp- bought at average 27 cents.
Now I want to hold for a bit- this volume is ridiculous. Could be partial short covering
hopefully can reach the 200sma (at 0.45).
got rejected there back in march
Good call, I’ll be watching that area. That lomng base and this volume is what it needs to get through there. There is hope – but we shouldnt trade on hope : )
rocket ship… 56%!
I just had 70%….I wish I jumped in bigger , but it was just a gut trade : (
Alex… you keeping hold with this kind of volume?
looks to be consolidating round about 0.38.
dont want to bail out too early, and some pullback wont leave me in the red.. so may stay in just for the lulz 🙂
24 million inside 2 hours!
VIX popping, Markets dropping.
I didnt even realize that the NASDAQ was down -44
Some FED guy spoke hawkishly yesterday I think…might have been 2 guys….sent dollar up….
Spot up 40%. Which tells us 2 things – complacency and Fed has propped the market up and they don’t want to loose their Fed secret sauce.
I used to have NCQ in my watch list…suddenly today it says it’s not a valid symbol and I can’t pull it up on another stock site either…am I crazy and somehow have the letters reversed or something? Wasn’t that a copper stock or something like that?
Name/ticker changed to TMQ 😉
Thanks Pieter – I had that ticker too ( Nova Golds copper spin off) and it went away yesterday, so I figured that they must have been bought out .
Now I can see the news on TMQ and I see that they just changed the name.
Thanks, Pieter! 🙂
CVI is breaking up and out of a base ( Energy)
Buyer beware, do due diligence or buy a small basket as your own little higher risk/reward etf.
You said “Do Due”? Happy Friday! LOL 😉
Very mature! lol
My next report will be entitled, ” PLEASE DOO DOO ! “
Even MORE mature! lol
For those of you playing along at home ( the AREX game)
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refresh
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Still looks ok – cannot rule out a drop down to back test the break out though.
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SRAQU is a green baby giraffe sticking it’s head out of a sea of red. Good do do too.
Real nice move out of that base
Hi Alex…..is this a good area to get into AG. Thx?
Alex, please share your opinion on FSM too – Thanks!
I believe the next stop is the 200ma for both stocks.
Yes, if we roll over into the ICL , that would be logical
FSM does have that H&S type development, but unconfirmed so far
yes very likely scenario. The season (SEPT-OCT) is traditionally a “distribution” one. Long term holders are trimming their positions. 200MA likely.
Hi Cal- Same as reply to Curtis
Hi Curtis – Since we are in a period of a little uncertainty in precious metals, I try to catch a reversal – not just the drop lows
It seems like it’s got support at the 38.2 on the weekly chart. But I would have trouble buying here because not sure where I’d place a stop. Looking at the daily, you could place one just below the recent low or around $10.50 where there’s some more support (lower BB, volume), but those would be around 13% and 17% losses, respectively, if they get hit. I like (and own) AG, but I’m not adding here. Just my two cents. *bort*
going below the 10sma is a sell for me and that’s why I sold jnug this morning
We could get 2-3 day bounce but I wouldn’t start many new positions here, risk/reward just isn’t there yet.
Really want to see PGH hold the 50sma ( @$1.60)
Thanks for the great week Alex!. Seems no where to hide today. That means it’s time for me to take my marbles and go home! Have a great weekend everyone. Going to enjoy some the last vestiges of this Canadian summer before it’s gone.
Good Plan Deshy, enjoy!
Added to SGY.
Nice charts and lowered risk with stops. Nice.
CLF is very attractive here.
I thought it was attractive a $1 ago. Oops!!!
Alex, Does the GDX sell off today change your expectations?
My expectations were rather “this” or “That” – so it is a matter of selling if your stops get hit, and watching how it plays out.
I dont see this as ‘damage’ in many of the Miners, but next week may be a different story
SPY is heavy volume / NAZ is heavy – they look like break downs, and OIL seems ok ( UCO looks fine) but if the markets sell off, will Oil go too? I cant tell from 1 day.
Yes, a bit. The breakout and run to new highs is pretty much completely off the table. I’d be looking for exits and hedges and not new longs here.
I can see this current miner DCL being an A (up) – B (down, current), – C move with C moving up to bonk head on the 50 day. That gives you a 3 wave up corrective structure on the current bounce in the context of a short-term downtrend. The fail from underneath lines up with the expected 8-11 time frame for 4th DCL top. From there we drop, perhaps sharply, into the next ICL. Warch Fed Mtg 20-21 Sep as part of this timing process!!
The general market selling looks heavy and like a break down.
The charts of DRV, SOXS, RUSS, YANG, SQQQ, EDZ, TZA, SRS, etc etc look like break outs
I agree Alex. the only recent common drops are June and last August….looks more like the seasonal Aug-Oct drop which can bring some really good buy to make the year if we get such a drop…especially if we get a really good ICL on gold miners…..worth waiting for. it is great opportunity for us. Have a good weekend.
Some of those OCTOBER market drops were notorious crashes. And with cycles and the FED- This could roll over rather early in the intermediate cycle and go deep south ( But that remains to be seen).
have a good one!
Yeah, we haven’t had a sell everything and run away it’s on fire moment since January. I forgot how bad this sucks (unless your monsterously short). Spot VIX was up 40% today. That’s just stupid.
Agreed, sold LABU this morning bought LABD. Looking for a 38.2% or 50% retracement for the markets then I’ll buy NUGT.
Lately Fridays all seem to throw in that curve ball and make the weekend reports difficult .
But today did look pretty much like the general markets investors were heading for the exits.
Have a good weekend and go easy on the growler – lol
IBB lost the 50 day hard at the open. XBI still settled on the 10 day. Whichever way markets and NAZ go on Monday, so will bio.
Sold LABD at the open. Made a little bit.
I was about to take thathe TQQQ trade, good thing I didn’t and of course cannot now.
Have a good weekend everyone.
With Fridays action, the weekend report will take a little extra research and thinking, and I have plans for the weekend. . I’ll try to shoot for Sunday night though.
Have fun, Be safe!
Looking forward to the report Alex. This was a bit of a chilling day, but I noticed GLD is only down .66% and sits on the 10sma.
I froze today instead of playing the short side.
GDX: $GOLD ratio is in free fall, but support (horizontal) coming in to play a few % further down.
I’m just sitting here gazing at the oil chart and right where we are at 45.71 is a nice area of support from a 2 week time period in July and again in April/May.
I’d like a rebound from here. I’m not day trading energy, I wanted to swing for a few weeks to months through intermediate cycle. Can’t fail yet!!