Straight to The Top
The theme picture is just a reminder: The markets do not usually go straight up to the top 🙂
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SPX – No change
USD – The USD has a bullish looking set up, but I was expecting the 200 sma to offer resistance and then the Dollar would roll over. This will take time to play out.
WTIC – Oil still looks fine. I’m hearing that Oil looks ugly and is failing. That is not what I see. Doesn’t this look like OIL ran up $10 in August, and pulled back $2? Is that scary and Ugly?
NATTY – Possible back test
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GOLD THOUGHTS
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I have a few conflicting thoughts with Gold, so all I am going to say as a definite is that Gold, Silver, and Miners sentiment is bearish enough now, and timing is right for a low to be put in place and a good bounce should follow ( maybe more?). I will start with 4 Gold charts.
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GOLD #1– I watched Gold drop below the $1310.70 live yesterday. It doesn’t show on Stockcharts, but that would make this a failed daily cycle. Notice the RELENTLESS daily sell off into the May ICL? We do not see that now. IF that daily ‘failed’, it should not make new highs on the next run higher. It should exibit weakness.
GOLD #2 – This chart shows what I saw, when Gold tagged 1309.26 Tuesday afternoon.
GOLD #3 – If this is really only the 2nd daily cycle, then the first was very strong, and the 2nd didnt even break to new highs. The 2nd remains very left translated ( Peak on day 8). This should indicate a weaker bounce in Gold right now and then rolling over. If I don’t thinking about ‘cycles’, I would look at this chart and say that we had a shake out and this 2 month consolidation could lead to a strong rally. THAT is the conflict I have for Gold. My gut feels that this could really take off. That is why I said lets just expect a bounce & worry about ‘what kind of bounce?’ when it shows us strength or weakness.
GOLD #4 – When I originally assigned a cycle notation for Gold & Miners – I had it labeled with short daily cycles. This would make more sense, because it would have the ‘peak’ in the 2nd daily cycle, and then a gradual weakening for the 3rd.
 So I have a few thoughts about Gold, and I dont think that one really out weighs the other. This recent consolidation could lead to a strong break out & run if I ignore cycles pointing to a peak in daily cycle #1, and a fail in the 2nd daily cycle.  IT would be a mini shake out and could break out higher. CONCLUSION: I expect a bounce in every case that I review the charts , so LETS EXPECT A LOW AND A BOUNCE SOON, we will watch it as it unfolds.
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SILVER – I am looking for a break & close above the 10sma for starters.
GDX -Yes, Miners do look like an ICL. I have stated this in the past using a different chart with various indicators. I expect a bounce soon, and I will be watching for it to show signs of strength or weakness. I expect another daily cycle into an ICL at this point and that 3rd gap could fill with a tag of the 200sma.
GDX Aug 26-
GDX AUG 26th – a drop from $24 – $22 over time?
Various methods of analyzing the precious metals sector are in conflict to me, if Gold failed and took out the prior daily cycle lows low yesterday. I still expect a bounce and will watch that bounce unfold, but Oil & Energy looks clear. The intermediate cycle for oil is still early and I expect Oil back above $50 and heading to $60 soon. Many energy stocks look good, as mentioned here, so hopefully you own a few after buying the recent ICL or entering on this dip.  And for those that were looking for the stronger companies holding up well, I have mentioned that CWEI, RICE, REI, WPX, ECA and several others look very healthy. Happy Wednesday!
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~ALEX
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THANKS ALEX for your advice. It works.
I am suspicious of that gold 1310 takeout as the dec contract doesn’t see that and with one day till it rolls off totally in thin trading of that aug when it really wasn’t there has me conflicted. Almost feels like done on purpose…
Gold did take it out this morning, and that will be on the chart.
In T/A – I just take what it gives me, so it seems to be a valid failure now.
Do you consider it a failure even if it closes above your number for the day?
Yes, a breach of that number automatically puts in a lower low, so it signals a lower low instead of climbing with higher lows in each daily cycle out of an ICL.
Chop, chop! 😉
Tell me about it – Markets and cord wood are both choppy & tiring. : )
Not 100% sure on this, but I don’t think Brexit can be classed as a DCL in Gold as it made a new low and then a new high in the same day. So The Doc always said – (thedocument).
Does this cycle being a triangle consolidation make any difference to it failing (& Left translated)? as in not count the same? Thanks!
Hi Tess, Thx and I do know DOC, but I’m not sure about that. I am thinking that maybe you only have that 1/2 correct. I could email him and ask for his opinion.
My thinking was that it can’t be called a DCL that same day that it makes both a low and a high, but if that low of that Brexit day remains and then that high is taken out later, I don’t see why it cannot be a dcl.
When it comes to cycles, I don’t feel that Gold is acting correctly anyway (in my opinion). That first daily cycle out of an ICL is the peak of the whole intermediate cycle? And then the 2nd is left translated peaking on day 8 and fails. That is not reliable bull market cycle work.
I’m just watching it now anticipating a low very soon, and I’ll go from there.
Tess- I am going to ask Doc what he meant – I will get back to you. Thx
TESS- I just heard from DOC. you are correct, he doesn’t use BREXIT as a dcl, and I’ll explain his thoughts in tonight report.
Thanks for bringing that out – I still use it in Miners 🙂
Commodities are stuck behind the rising USD and I don’t think we are going to be able to start to breathe again until it moves down. This is about day 10 and recent history says it could turn back down now – or on about day 22. I’ve sat in front of the screen watching this move and trying with all my might to will it to come back down, but it just has a mind of its own.
I don’t know about “the streets running red”…but my account is!
LOL……too funny Nancy.
MIne too. I do always try to sell on the way up, but holding several positions in the last week has been uncomfortable.
Uncomfortable!?!! That is one hellishly large understatement! LOL! Seriously painful, but down the road it will probably be ok. It is a good time to look at longer term charts.
My account is headed straight to the bottom here! Thank goodness I have a higher cash level right now than I carried in Jul/Aug so do have some dry powder at least.
Gold sitting on the TL……will it hold ?
May sound stupid, but I am just getting used to DCL, ICL…what the heck is TL?
Sorry Nancy…..Trend Line from my post yesterday.
OOOOO…light bulb goes on. Thanks for the clarification.
No worries……. 🙂
so much for AREX – stopped out today with a small profit.
I took a shot on it this morning after the drop. Fairly close stop but giving it some room. Not a big position.
What a great run – up 200% in August alone.
I’m still up very big on the initial buy, but I added later with the break out and that position has lost some good gains. Over all looks good if the recent weekly break out holds up.
Refresh – It isn’t even back down to the 10sma yet, so It is acting correctly after running up over 200%
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Hi Alex. Any thoughts on AMRS here?
Hi Carl
This is a tough one. I still own all of what I bought of it. I thought it was going to break out and run, and the volume surges were looking very good, especially when it popped above the 10sma and held it for a while.
On a 6 month chart, I really like the base and it still has the prospect of breaking out & running, BUT it also has the prospect of just continuing to build this base. SO here is my story with this one…
I usually will take a trade with certain expectations ( in this case, the break out & run and holding above the 10sma). When time goes by and it does not act the way I expected , I just sell it and walk away. It goes on a watchlist and if it starts breaking out, I may re-enter at that later time. So usually I would have sold this by now- lack of follow through. So maybe I should have dumped AMRS with that attitude, but for some reason, I am still in it. I still like it, but it is below the 10sma. That is when I would normally sell, below the 10sma for a couple of days.
SO- I do like the base on a 6 month chart. The recent selling volume is light. I’m giving it a little more time, but it will be a bummer if it breaks to new lows and I have to sell it there. I bought it in the area that it is in now and a bit higher too. I am red on the position.
Sorry for the long story, it wasnt a yes or no answer to me : )
Thanks for the detailed response.. I’ll hold off on it for now unless it can get back above to 10 dma.
I do see some Miners where the selling may be drying up. I see divergence on the short term charts, so we may be quite close to a low . AAU, TRQ, HL, NGD are even green today, but that alone doesn’t mean that we cant get a quick one day flush before the lows are in.
The GDX chart seems to show that we already had that flush last week on the 24th.
Just talking out loud here, this is NOT a recommendation to buy. NOT a buy recommendation. NOT NOT NOT 🙂
GOLD & GDX has a tiny little candle today with a new low. That makes putting in a swing tomorrow much easier for tomorrow or Jobs report Friday, and the timing is favorable . GOLD IS ON DAY 29.
refresh
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LOL, so we should buy?
Absolutely…All in on NUGT
(NOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) JUST KIDDING!!!! : )
Bought NUGT today at $17.70,,only had to hit that price three times before I had the courage to finally buy, lol, I will keep a tight stop though,
where it is tomorrow I couldn’t say, but next week it’ll probably be higher.
Yeah, just looking for the bounce. With all the craziness, ive cut my trading positions/capital allowance in half. Waiting for some trend confirmations before I go back to normal sizes. I was looking for it to close the next gap, but the $17.70 held throughout the day and was an easy low risk bid. Ill stop out pretty quick below it @ $17.30 im guessing, Unless it just gaps away in the morning, in which case , im screwed and hoping for next week,,lol
There went $17.70 with a quickness, this trade may not even last the day..lol
But look at the volume at these levels,, over a million shares in last 10 minutes, just a surge at these levels, hopefully a good sign.
Yeah, these dcl’s get mean on traders at times, but when the lows are in, shorts cover and you can get a good pop.
started a postion in NUGT today. 1/2 position
I like GDX macd divergence in the hrly & 1/2 hr charts too.
Hoping so, I jumped the gun on that one and underwater now but hoping I bought enough time. Should have waited on your nightly report as you covered the day and ensuing days about perfect. Has played out so far as you posted. Live and learn,,I am trying to decipher the cycle analysis but still cant get quality info on basic premise so just trying to learn it here from you and the others.
I did as well due to days action, but im still thinking its gonna try and close the gap at $15.35 today, GDX $24 and Gold possibly 1300. Gonna be an rough end to the week for me.
Jobs report may save you : ) New report is out
Definite change of character in last 10 minutes in NUGT, , surge to upper days trendline
I see it…I like the 10 day hrly chart too…MACD divergence
Then bounce off and right back down, has to be HFT moving dust and nugt in these wild swings,
The 10 SMA is quite a ways higher, though…
Alex, Isn’t this more of a pull back in oil than you expected?
Yes, more than I expected , but it isn’t broken. I thought that the 50sma would hold. XLE & XOP are selling down a bit more today too.
It appears that Gold will close above your level, Alex (December futures)
http://tos.mx/SlGvZz
(darn thinkorswim, makes us click on link and then click on chart)
If one thinks copper and Gold have bottomed short term, FCX looks good for a low risk entry bounce here as well
Agree, but I’ll probably wait for Jobs report first. I have some powder but if I use here and we drop Fri I’d be in trouble.
Alex – I don’t know if I’m too late to catch you tonight – just wondering your thoughts on SB. Hanjin shipping just filed for bk.
I’m still in that one and hating it. Hasn’t hit my stop but sure hasn’t been much fun!
The chart is fine, and then we look at SINO, EGLE, etc and see how they popped. SB has not had that loving yet.
SB has not popped, if you are bored with it, jst sell it. It has Not done what we first expected when we stepped into it .
Same here. SB is meh so far.
EGLE chart is unbelievable
Yes, unbelievable… Looks like a nice weekly POP, but Split adjusted it is either 73 cents or 7 cents in reality. I cant remember how they split it off hand.
I’m looking at KGC and the nosedive. One thing I have been warned about is to watch out when there is a very obvious spot for stops to be placed – that they could cause a shake out. I’m hoping that is the case.