August 28 – Weekend Report

It was a week of activity capped off with some Jackson Hole volatility. Lets take a look…

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SPX – 2 months of sideways should produce a strong trending move. A dcl could shake traders out first.

SPX WKLY – The weekly shows that we are on week 8 out of the recent lows. The prior move did top on week 10 and dip for weeks before surging and making new highs on week 17, so these markets can be tricky, even when bullishly set up.

USD Aug 26, this looked like it was waiting to break out or fail on Jackson Hole Friday.

USD –  And it did break out strongly.  I want to point out that that USD burst suddenly seemed to make everyone bullish on the $USD, but we’ve seen this before.  The move occurred when Janet mentioned that a rate hike is back on the table. What do you think will happen when there is no rate hike? The Brexit pop simple went sideways , so this could do the same. ( NOTE: Gold popped on Brexit, and Gold Popped Friday too, but gave it up for now)

USD WKLY –

WTIC – Still a Bullish set up

WTIC -WKLY – Week 3 I am not worried about ‘Inventory reports”  ‘Rig counts” etc. This pullback was an opportunity in my opinion. A drop below $45 might begin to concern me.

NATGAS – NATGAS August 24th, set up for a break out.

Break out with MACD cross. Resistance above $3.50

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GOLD & MINERS

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GOLD – This type of doji can be a reversal after a sell off, but we’ll see. The good news was that Gold didn’t take out the $1310.70.  Without making a right translated daily cycle, it looks weak though. This really looks like a weak 3rd daily cycle to me. There is one more crazy idea that I have, I will put it at the end of the report, some may call it ‘The Pipe Dream’. 🙂

GOLD WEEKLY – I might trade a bounce or lighten up after a bounce.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – BIG PICTURE BULLISH

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I just wanted to show that in the start of the Bull by 2002-2003, Gold didn’t drop below the blue line once it gained it ( except 2008 &2012).  It also didn’t drop below the red line after it gained it ( until 2013). We are above both now, this builds confidence in the longer term expectations for Gold. The Red Line is now at $1294, I’d like to see that hold at the next ICL. 

GDX Aug 25th, I pointed out that we have a failed daily cycle.  By breaking to new lows in this uptrend, that indicates that the next daily cycle is just a bounce. GDX is very oversold, but it should just be weak bounce and not make new highs.

GDX – A bounce can peak by day 8,9,10,11,12.

GDX WKLY – A low in place or a low next week.

GDX WEEKLY possible ICL targets once we start dropping again. 

Here I am just using an old chart pointing out something with the red arrows.  This late in a daily cycle, after a steep slam like we just had, we have seen the  lows develop a day or two later. The sellers are exhausted by the move. Expect GDX lows in place o within days.

I used this in the comments / chat section Friday mid day – when people were concerned that the gains Friday were going away.  I have seen this before, it doesn’t mean we aren’t forming a low here.

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3 sets of charts for perspective. 

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Short term and longer term.   These are going to be Miners that we loved once.  Lately,  nobody loves them or wants to own them. I’m using this part of the report to show why they could become much loved again, after an ICL.

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THM – This was loved, and if you took this trade when I pointed it out at 50 cents. We made some great money on this one together. It almost tripled from there. Lately, after breaking below the triangle and the 50sma, it is not pretty  anymore.

THM WKLY –  Very pretty in my opinion.  $1 to $2 in a bullish heart beat after the next ICL.

TRX – After a very bullish run and some great gains,  TRX is now rather weak and ugly, also breaking below the 50sma for the 1st time since April.

TRX WEEKLY – TRX ran strong and became very overbought on a weekly.  It has tagged the underside of resistance, but it broke out from a down trend in the big picture.

XRA WKLY – Bucking Bronco.  HUGE GAINS, but many buyers hate XRA recently, especially the buy & hold group.

WHAT A BEAUTIFUL CHART – 29 cents to $1.50.  Huge gains. We have  a break out & back test in progress.

That is your weekend wrap up.  Gold & Miners look a bit tricky in the short term, but I wanted to impress on everyone how Bullish the longer term charts look.  These are the wiggles in the big picture, the ripples in the pool. As a trader I may trade the bounce in Miners here (  I already bought  few like AUMN, AXU, ), but it may not be buy & hold time until the next ICL.   This drop just goes as a reminder that no matter how bullish Miners look, they can always get sold off. 

AG – One of my favorites ran to $19+. Suddenly it is at $13 again, and below the uptrend line.

We’ll have to see how the Miners play out going forward.  The recent selling was up to ICL standards, so it has me wondering if this was a FLUSH OUT sell off that bounces with a final daily cycle, and then when Gold drops to its ICL, will these Miners just double bottom? A slight under cut low?  I have a few thoughts on the matter, but time will give us the chance to add important info to these ideas and gain a better understanding of what is really taking place. EVEN IF this was an early ICL wash out in Miners , before Golds real drop,  they would still drop into a higher low on that sell off in Gold , and that would be a buying opportunity.  We still have time for adding longer term additions of Miners from what I am thinking. Being patient is playing it safe under these conditions, not missing a bottom.

I am still bullish OIL & ENERGY, and most of my positions are there, buying the pullback. I will cover more after we see Mondays trading.  You may want to read this report a few times to absorb all of the thinking here.  The last chart below is the mind blower   Enjoy the rest of your weekend, and thanks again for being here!

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~ALEX

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THE PIPE DREAM?

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  There is a teeny tiny chance that Gold could digest the “Inflation” talk of Jackson Hole and burst higher at lets say three  $30 per day bursts to new daily cycle highs by day 29, and THEN drop into a dcl by day 33, changing this to a right translated 2nd daily cycle, and GDX to a ‘fake out – shake out’ .   I was just staring at this chart and saw the 2 other patterns with striking similarity ( orange circles). Sideways, weak, and then a BURST & drop. I dont think  ANYBODY ELSE thinks this could happen, or even can see this.