Have You Been Shopping?

Tuesdays markets sparked my interest in a few ways. Let’s get to the charts…

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SPX – We’ve certainly seen this before. Frustrating the longs and the shorts, the sideways move continues.

WTIC –  This was important to me.  I posted this chart and mentioned that looking at the first run out of the ICL in February,  we saw price hug the 10 sma, and continue higher for 25 days. Look at the current price for the 10sma and notice that we are not at day 25 , we are 1/2 way there.  “BUY THE DIPS” is written on the chart.

WTIC – Oil continued its drop and then put in a timely reversal. Each day it is important to keep a watch list and watch how your oil stock picks, along with the XLE, XOP, OIH, etc,  act during Oils selling and reversals.  I will discuss more at the end of the report.  If OIL BULL FLAGS to the 50sma here, it will give an additional  buying opportunity. So far it reversed at the 10sma and remains above the 50sma.

NATGAS – Rejected at the 50sma on Friday, it rebounded Monday and showed strength along with an improved MACD and the RSI ready to try to move above the bullish 50% line.

Tuesday NATGAS had important follow through in all areas. Notice how NATGAS ran higher in June.  When it gets running, it can move well, so if your Energy stocks consist of NATGAS & OIL, they should do well. Both look bullish going forward for the next few weeks. For example : Chesapeake Energy   (CHK) has done well out of the lows and was up another 6% Tuesday. 

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This was a nice reminder for the active traders here that use these 3x leveraged ETFs.  Thx Conrad.

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GOLD – No big change. Read yesterdays report for details on my thinking in this sector. It needs to burst higher, but even that may roll over into an ICL.

GDX – GDX could be close to putting in a temporary low, but I am thinking more and more that it will be a weak bounce and then a drop into an ICL.  The drop into the May ICL did not destroy many miners.  Some just dipped a bit and went sideways.   MAYBE Janet Yellens speech Friday will put the lows in for precious Metals ?

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SO lets review a few charts.

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TGD –  Some own this as a core holding. It has run up 180% since the buy at the 200sma and the recent consolidation looks to me to be a normal back test / consolidation. See the chart.

NAK caught my eye Monday & Tuesday. I noticed that the 20sma held as support in July, so I wanted to see what happens when price tags it again.  Tuesday we got a reversal on the 20sma. I own NAK from the buy recommendations at 30-45 cents. This could run up & double top, it could bull flag, it could even break down and lose that 20sma, NAK could do many different things, so I am watching it and also comparing what I see going forward with what TRX, XRA,  or THM did on their 1st pop & run, drop, and 2nd run.   Buying at the 20sma was low risk, but you have to stop out below it if the trade goes against you. 

ENERGY –  I am watching the XLE, XOP, OIH, OIL, etc, with the pull back recently. They remain very bullish looking charts,  yet some analysts continue to call Oils run higher  “just a dead cat bounce”.  They missed the first run higher too.  🙁

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XOP – This shot above the 200sma and held on like a champ when OIL sold off. This remains Bullish and looks ready to break out to new highs.

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OIL & ENERGY STOCKS

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OAS – I think that Tuesday was a low risk buy. If oil starts out lower, the 10 sma may get tagged 1 more time for a buy.

WPX –  WPX is slowly selling off. THAT looks like a gift, I have also mentioned the weekly chart being bullish in past reports.

COG – BULLISH, this is also a BUY right here.  I would have a stop below the $25

CHK – I mentioned buying this when it was near $5.00 and it has been a steady climber.  So far It runs up, down 1 day, higher, down 1 day. If you see a down day it seems to be a buy. It held the 8 sma so far, but CHK is often a little looser than that.

WLL – This stock hasn’t had a strong run upward over the past several days, but it did basically run from $6.50 to $8.50 & is setting up nicely. I think that it could be bought in this area as an inverse H&S

I was watching CPST ( AND SXE, LGCY, and a few others that have had long bases / consolidations).  On short term charts I got a buy in CPST and entered and posted this chart in the comments real time.

CPST  almost immediately started to run higher and volume kept surging in. This actually closed with 3.6 million in volume and it ran to $1.97 intraday.  If this pulls back or bull flag it may become a second buy point (  or you could take a trade in it for a 2nd strong pop higher).

AMRS – I mentioned before that I bought this. It has a steady base and I added yesterday when I saw steady volume start coming in. I posted this in the morning.

AMRS –  ended the day with over 4 million in volume and has started moving higher. I just like the base.

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SUMMARY:

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We are still waiting for the markets to make a move out of this long consolidation. Each day it either runs higher or sells off, and then gives back the move by the close. This frustrates  both longs and shorts and anyone that confidentially held a leveraged position is getting chopped up.  Oil and Energy have been the best trades and the recent pause or sell down looked like a buying opportunity in many of the stocks, as shown. Oil just put in an ICL and the gradual run higher can last for months, so buying there and then buying pull backs is important and rewarding down near the lows.  Precious Metals are also choppy, volatile, and pretty much directionless. I am waiting for a dcl, but as time goes forward, I’m thinking that it could be lack luster and just a shorter term trade for those that buy it.  Time will tell when we finally start to move higher for more than a day or two. Metals stocks like CLF, AA, CENX, AKS, VALE, SID, etc look to be shaping up, but most gave up gains after running higher Tuesday morning. AKS broke down a bit more than I think it should have, so I am just watching this area, I am not buying anything.  Enjoy your Wednesday trading, but energy stocks if they are acting well above support as shown in the examples above, and MAYBE Fridays speech by Janet Yellen will cause a reaction low in Gold, Silver, and Miners. It also may get a directional move in the general markets and clear things up a bit. As always, thanks for being here at Chartfreak!

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~ALEX

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Interesting look to charts of  POT, MON, IPI, AG, MOS, etc being monitored too.