Just A Minute

Fed Minutes are released today. We have seen a few sideways moves in various sectors, maybe this will be a catalyst for a directional move.

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SPX – If you re not long or short, don’t jump the gun. After a long consolidation, the move can be prolonged, and I have actually been expecting a dip into a dcl. I dont think that the early Aug dip on day 25 was enough.

USD – That was quite a dip. The USD was rejected at the 200sma. Notice how May through June took on the exact shape as July through Aug. If they are the same, that was a fake break down yesterday.

WTIC – Yesterday I mentioned that I thought that OIL could push right through that resistance of the 50sma, and posted this …

Oil Pushed through and also broke above a down trend line. That is bullish for the longer term trading.

NATGAS – This still looks like a possible Bear Flag and has not taken out resistance.

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GOLD – The weakness that I was noting is easing.  Look at the RSI. Can the release of the FED MINUTES give Gold a boost at this point?  Yes. On day 16, a push to new highs would be great, and this consolidation could be a bullish set up now. We should break to new highs , since the last Daily cycle was R.T., so let’s see what the Fed Minutes can do.

SILVER – Silver has worked its way over to the 50sma with the passing of time.

MINERS barely changed,and this is from Monday. It too could go either way.

Summary: The release of the Fed Minutes could send some of these consolidations into a directional move.  Will the SPX  drop into a dcl, or break out and run higher from this consolidation? Time will tell.  For now I am Bullish on Oil & Energy stocks.  In the past, we have seen  a small pullback as oil works around the 50sma, but this set up looked rather strong and I was thinking that it would just leave people behind. We’ll see if Oil inventories can slow it down.  If you listened to the Kyle Bass interview on energy, he said some interesting things about the Oil inventories and out put slowing down. He is a smart man, and I enjoy his interviews. Precious Metals showed weakness last week, and I mentioned the possibility of volatility and lack of a break higher short term, based on what I was seeing.  I also mentioned that consolidation can repair the weakness, and we may be seeing that now that over a week has passed.  I also used a lot of 2008-2010 charts to show how this type of sideways chop and volatility can be difficult with leverage.

Lets just see what the Fed Minutes can do, if anything.

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~ALEX

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SO let me just review a few trade ideas already in progress or setting up. There are many, a few are good until we get past the Fed Minutes.  I have mentioned the 50/50 set up in precious metals, and the Fed Minute release may push it one way or the other, so I am only going to mention that some Miners look bullish.

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THM –  Among others, this looks bullish at this point.  XRA had a similar look last week, and now it looks more like a double top, so I remain cautious in this area until the Fed Minutes come out.

I was asked if SD was “Still O.K.?”  It is in an uptrend, has run from 25 cents to $1.50 and is a lot closer to the highs than the lows. It looks like a break out & back test. Use the lower trend line as your guide.

 Immediately after a bear market sell off, when I am buying a bottom, I buy all bullish looking set ups, because there is usually massive short covering and the companies aren’t really close to bankruptcy yet. They have acquired debt, but often have cash on hand too.  When you get the initial 6 month run higher and pullback, the true condition of a company comes into play as possible future struggles come to light.  At this point I look for those that held up a bit better.  I do still also play the occasion possible break out of a Base, or other possible short term bullish set ups, because I am a trader.

I have been looking for stocks that look healthy at this point a bit more than the low priced ones for that reason. I already traded OAS and I Bought and still own ERF, BTE and LGCY.  LGCY is more of a consolidation base, and I will let it go if it doesn’t run soon or breaks down.

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WPX – A nice shallow pullback as Oil sold off,  WPX was back near the highs with Oil still in low $40’s. The RSI is near 70 already, I see this as a stronger chart.

WPX – Bullish consolidation. If Oil is going to run higher for weeks, even months, this can too.

CHK – There has been some good news for CHK, and it is starting to show in the charts.  I bought CHK Monday and Tuesday and I  do plan on holding at least to recent  highs of $7.50.  I think it wants to run there sooner than later, forming a giant cup.

CHK WKLY – This is just breaking out now according to the weekly chart and this has very nice potential if Energy is in a recovery phase.

AMRS – This is more of the “Gut Feel” buy, and I bought it yesterday.  Earnings are behind us as of Aug 4th. It has a nice base, it is breaking above the 50sma with strong volume, etc. etc.  When I take a trade like this, it may be that I only hold as long as it stays above that 50sma and performs as expected.  It is a NASDAQ stock and will likely require that AMRS trade above $1 soon, so they could receive a threat of delisting and then they get a deadline to act upon it, so there is risk. I have read a lot of news that they’ve been signing new contracts at a record pace, and will post earnings below on the link. It was mixed with good and bad (improving at least). Could be risky, I like the chart.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/amyris-reports-second-quarter-2016-results-2016-08-04-16184136?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

PGH – I did not have this energy company on my watch list, Robert mentioned it yesterday , so I decided to look at the chart. I love this chart and the long term chart. It was climbing higher in a very orderly fashion, and that can be Bullish in many ways.  The recent sell off in OIL did take it down well below the 50sma, but it is about to attempt a recovery. The MACD is still below the zero line, but in many ways, I really like this set up for future gains.