Thursday August 11

/131 Comments/in /by

We were expecting the start of a pull back, so I posted this NASDAQ chart along with the Vix and a few other charts

NAZ 8-9

Now lets look at the latest developments...

 

NAZ – The drop began and the more I look at this, the more I would avoid being long right now.

NAZ 8-10

 

SPX – When you have a sideways consolidation like the SPX had, a break out should run strongly in that direction.  This has fallen back, and actually looks like this could be the start of a bigger drop. So just as a cautionary note : If it breaks down, this could quickly drop to 2120.  That could mean that it is rolling over .

SPX 8-10

 

VIX –  I know that at the end of the workday, some have said that they don’t have time to scroll through the chat area, so I will add here that  RAY posted a chart in the chat area showing that the VIX has repeatedly had AUGUST bursts higher in AUGUST for each the past 7 years.  We all should remember last AUGUST,  when the Vix burst higher and the markets crashed.  Lets just stay open to the bull and the bear thinking here. The VIX looks bullish.

VIX 8-10

 

WTIC –

WTIC 8-10 1

 

WTIC – Oil could tag the 200sma and make a higher low.

WTIC 8-10

WTIC – From yesterdays report, the undercut low.  We just need to keep this in the back of our minds. No surprises. 🙂

WTIC 8-9 b

XLE – Look at the January lows, and when OIL undercut, The XLE did not.

XLE 8-10

 

NATGAS –– the expected follow through down that we discussed.

NATTY 8-10

GOLD – Holding the trend line, day 12.

GOLD 8-10a

GOLD – I still expect a run higher, though it has been a little slow lately in this resistance zone.

GOLD 8-10 2

 

GDX – Day 12 made a new high for this daily cycle.  This could be helpful in gaining a R.T. daily cycle.

GDX 8-10 a

 

GDX – Sometimes you get a break above former highs and then a correction, other times you get follow through.We have broken former highs all the way back to 2013. A quick run to $35 is possible.

GDX 8-10 b

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That is your market review and really nothing has changed as far as our outlook going forward. We discussed looking at energy stocks and how to buy the dip, and we are also looking at Miners and waiting for ( hoping for) further upside. Today was good for many miners, I’d like to see more follow through and for GOLD to make that run above $1400 sooner than later. So far I’m seeing Pops that give it up at the end of the day.  We need some follow through soon. Timing is still favorable for that.  Friday may or may not contain a report, depending on whether or not much changes on Thursday.  Our outlook has pretty much been the same all week.

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Enjoy your Thursday and Friday trading! Thanks for being here.

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~ALEX

 

FOLLOW UP TRADE THOUGHTS

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BAA released earnings Wednesday after the bell. This was the bullish chart set up, we’ll see if the release boosts BAA.

BAA 8-9

Wednesday, I did add on this break out and posted that in the chat / comments area.  My stop would normally be below the apex, because that means that the pattern failed, but I may hold on and see if it simply tags the 50sma.

BAA 8-10

PLGTF – I bought this too, and intend to hold it for a longer term play.   It was the hardest buy for me to complete in a long time.  I set a limit price and it took quite a while to fill my order,  I HATE LOW VOLUME STOCKS FOR THIS REASON. This set up is quite bullish so I will just ride it, but trying to sell out of this may be difficult too, if Volumes do not increase over time.

PLGTF

The candle Wednesday looks a little toppy. I may even try to add on the way down.  It is easier to buy a dip in low volume stocks.

PLGTF 2

 

TRQ – TRQ has been lagging and even dropping last week, but when I took a look, it may just be a back test and finding support.  Time will tell, but it actually looks O.K. for now.

TRQ

 

SB 2 charts –  I own it and was asked about it today, so I posted these 2 ideas in the chat / comments area.  I like the first chart.

SB

Another idea, with a lower drop still ahead, but also it is still a higher low.

SB 2

 

GPL – I mentioned in the comments that GPL  ( Don’t shoot the messenger)  actually started looking better to me. It has been plagued with bad news, but that can mean that all the sellers have left the building.  Let me show you what I found that is Bullish about GPL…

GPL 8-10 a

 

GPL #2 – THIS is Bullish as a weekly back test. Look at the weekly RSI. 

GPL 8-10 b

 

GPL WKLY – And this was a 750% move that just pulled back 50%.  HMMMM.  We may look back at this in a year and realize that this was the Next higher low off of the bottom. When they did their public offering and I sold my position, I said, “I want to sell and put the funds to use elsewhere, there is always another trade.  I will look at GPL later for a better entry.”   Guess what?  I think that I am looking at a better long term entry.  This ran 750% and pulled back 50%, is that a bad Silver company or maybe an opportunity?  You decide for yourself.

GPL 8-10 c

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I slso mentioned were TAHO, THM, AAU – They looked good Wednesday  a.m., and looked much better by the end of the day . GSV was mentioned by Robert, but it turned into one of the Giraffe necks, so I’m not chasing it here. It could run straight to $3 on the weekly chart though. I’ll wait and see if it bull flags in the future or pulls back.

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GSV – GSV popped straight up twice in 2012, and then it went into a consolidation phase each time. I will look for that going forward. Both GSV and AAU came out with good news on drill results.

GSV

 

131 replies
      • daz clark
        daz clark says:

        Can’t figure out if BAA is good or bad as I don’t have time to have a proper look, but thet reported a loss of 0.4 eps. I *think* they were expect to come in at around -0.10……. don’t quote me though, guess we’ll find out today.

        Have a good day all!

  4. Cason
    Cason says:

    Alex, if we get a VIX spike and S&P drop, it will pull energy with it. Btw that and an undercut, wouldn’t we better to eject and sit in cash? Not trying to yell sky is falling, just a lower tide drops all boats, esp energy boats.

    • shermo
      shermo says:

      per stock traders almanac 70% of the time during August in election years the market rallies during the middle of the month. for this time it is from today 8-11 to 8-17…then starts to die off…by 8-30 big chance of drop off with Sept. an ugly month….we’ll see.

  6. R Byram
    R Byram says:

    oil stocks up pre – WLL, USO,, UGA. SDRL, OAS, LPI, CHK, BTE that’s just off of my list of about 30 names – none are down premarket

  7. Bill
    Bill says:

    Alex, I’m thinking of dropping TGD as they report after the bell Today. What do you have for a replacement here? Anything looking ambitious? BAA, GPL, TRQ?

  9. MarkMarin
    MarkMarin says:

    BTW, better volume in the Canadian issue of Pilot Gold (PLGTF-US; PLG.TO-Canadian). Constructive that volume has picked up with the break out to new highs.

  10. Maria
    Maria says:

    thank u dear chartfreak for another great week of reports… u bring me back to center everyday .. im pretty stoked for the coming weeks & months.
    u are a true blessing
    *i will deny I ever said that .. 😉

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Above 1.61 is ok. BB really pinched in. Slow here but could blow up next week. I’m going to give it time above my stop and if we don’t get a fail on oil cycles per CFs analysis.

    • Erik Sven
      Erik Sven says:

      I’m still in on the basis of the weak selling yesterday and the nice looking monthly chart. If OPEC meeting does end up with a decision of “freeze” should move nicely.

  12. Thomas Yarbrough
    Thomas Yarbrough says:

    Hey everyone, could you all please do me a favor and give your thoughts on this chart of CC. I have been adding on the way up and shorting it is now my largest position 😛 Do you all see any hope that it will cool off in the near future? thanks

    • Bill
      Bill says:

      Thomas, financials say the company’s revenues and net income have been steadily decreasing. Not good. I wouldn’t short it but I would hang on in case this is a break out. I would have a stop in case it doesn’t and wants to drop back down to the lower trend line.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Thomas, you’re net short, right? That’s a strong chart with a breakout. Looks just a bit overbought, the horizontal breakout was btw $10-10.50. If it comes back to test that looks like a decent place to cover a short or go long. Just 1 opinion.

      • Thomas Yarbrough
        Thomas Yarbrough says:

        thanks for the feedback guys I am more of a fundamental investor but I do you charts and I think the chart may be telling me I need to do some covering when I get a chance

    • ray
      ray says:

      if you look at a 2 years chart you can see it’s a big cup and handle pattern
      I would cut losses right away – but that s me

    • Bill
      Bill says:

      Dreaded public offering. Look for clues with X. Their business are tied together. X announced a public offering a few days before CLF. When X starts going higher, CLF probably will as well. Id watch the 38.2% area around $6.27

    • nancytheartist
      nancytheartist says:

      I agree with Bill. I am holding and will probably just wait out the punishment from the new offering. Pull up a 4 year chart to keep things in perspective.

      • Cason
        Cason says:

        Yeah, but if we can ID the bottom of this current pullback, should be a fantastic long opportunity.

    • miller
      miller says:

      I sold out yesterday. was holding long term but was up over 100% at the beginning of the week, was carrying a good chunk (for me) and the gap down yesterday on big volume (huge today 45 mil.) and the churning on high volume the last few weeks convinced me to sell. I think its still a great long term hold and will watch it to re enter the trade.

  14. Edward Bernhart
    Edward Bernhart says:

    Check out EXLLF from Wednesday 8/3 to today an 80% gain with tremendous volume on good earnings!

  17. Jayesh Chauhan
    Jayesh Chauhan says:

    Hi Alex, I bought a position in UWTI at ’19’ yesterday & its giving solid gain of 12+% 🙂 Any idea what caused the sudden change in sentiment?

  18. Erik Sven
    Erik Sven says:

    Alex, do you still track AXAS. Their monthly chart looks alright–seems like there’s not much resistance until like the 2.70 range. What am I missing? I guess there’s no good volume “clues” though.

    • nancytheartist
      nancytheartist says:

      I just sold my THM today and tucked a really nice profit in the bank. So much so , that I finally bit the bullet and sold out of TRQ for a little loss. I hate to sell any in the red, even if a little bit!

    • Ken
      Ken says:

      Might be early but want to atleast get in the game. UNG is working on an ICL (wave 4 imo). We could still hit the 200 dma as Alex is saying though so ……………………..

    • Maria
      Maria says:

      patience danielleson…. ive been stalkn the same.. giddyup
      then again, when u have UR cachingas… u have plenty of resources to keep layn down those swing buys…. 😉

      *cachingas ($$) not to be confused with cachingos…………. althoughhhhhhh hmmmm … (me lookin up and tappn my chin)

      • Ken
        Ken says:

        yea… I am cheating (or it may be intuition) to some degree but it is my first tranche.
        I will add at the next daily swing buy signal for sure.
        Cachingos no clue what that might be….lol

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Nice. Nat gas was a huge disappointment from me after that big pop off the inventory report last week. I didn’t expect quite the slam that we got. Starting to get towards oversold, I might have some gas to buy here shortly.

  23. R Byram
    R Byram says:

    Good article – supports my thesis that creditors will now become predators. All of these high debt companies that have been left to have their stocks take big swings between short covering and triggered stops are at a heightened risk of a sudden bankruptcy. This is a far greater risk than getting slammed around by a bad report or a secondary financing. The list could include OAS BECI SDRL NADL LPI LGCY and on and on. Investors have bought the debt for pennies and are now in a position to enforce the covenants, take control of the asset and wipe out the common shareholders.

    http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/the-thawing-is-underway-private-equity-finally-swoops-in-to-pick-up-distressed-u-s-oil-assets?__lsa=28f1-c0f5

    “There’s a long list of companies that are going to disappear,” said EIG’s Sonneborn. “You’ve got to be very, very careful investing in this space.”

    • Ken
      Ken says:

      Hmmm…..someone else has been saying that same thing for months now…… 🙂 …….sorry couldnt resist.
      I concur Byram. Debt will kill some.

    • nancytheartist
      nancytheartist says:

      Thanks to you and Ken…scared me out of OAS with a small profit. Better than chancing another bankruptcy…3 of those so far.

      • Cason
        Cason says:

        Yes, some of these have terrible fundamentals and are NOT a long-term hold candidate nor would I bet that farm on any of them. As far as a short-term technical trade with oil coming out of a low? Probably ok for a few. Another reason to have a basket. And be prepared if you need to get out to exit.

        I’d put money that BAS then BCEI the next two to officially fail. How do we take that trade? 😛

        • nancytheartist
          nancytheartist says:

          I would add shippers to that list…I now own another bankrupt one ORIG…and it off-spinner DRYS is hanging by a thread. Those beaten down charts look so exciting to “get in” at the bottom….but they can be risky if the beat down is not really done. I have learned that….I had HK [at least I made some $ going in/out for me before it died]. I still have ARP and SGY. I am trying to avoid them again.

          • Thomas Yarbrough
            Thomas Yarbrough says:

            dsx is the safest shipper I know of off the top of my head. Good hedges and balance sheet

  24. ray
    ray says:

    anybody noticed REN lately !!!!! was 6.5 august 5th touched 13 today
    Alex is that one of your famous giraffe ?

      • R Byram
        R Byram says:

        They were another of the Zombie companies (we need a zombie gif) just waiting to be slayed, and then they had some massive success with their last 3 Permian Basin wells – that redefined what these monster wells are capable of. The horizontal legs are over 9000 feet – can you imagine? a drill pipe extending almost a mile and a half horizontally through a juicy formation. The IP30 – initial production rates for the first 30 days – were close to 3000 bbls/day – so these wells are very very profitable today even at $40 bbl oil. All of a sudden this company was worth mega so the market had to re-price it. I was in it and got stopped out on the drop and then it got away on me. Still smarting over that one.

        ps – I talked about it a few weeks ago here

          • nancytheartist
            nancytheartist says:

            Awesome picture! Love the new terminology….zombie shares!. LOL. I had that drink last night…a yummy cosmo made with vanilla Stoly and fresh lime. I will watch my 7 shares in their death march and picture them as the above image.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Hey, man how did the UWTI purchase treat you today? 🙂

      I just sold half of my USO calls. Really glad that I didn’t get shaken out tomorrow. Might still have some more near-term upside through tomorrow but was able to cover the whole purchase with day’s sale. Now, it’s all house money!

      • Bill
        Bill says:

        Cason, worked well. Awesome day in UWTI, GUSH, and BTE. I bought some ERX as well. Not sure why GOLD is stalling, but Im okay holding NUGT for now.

  26. Cason
    Cason says:

    I’m thinking about paring back some of my less successful miners here shortly??!? AUY, GSS just going absolutely nowhere. Or is time to trim on the ones with a great run to ensure profits? My miners are showing me a topping candle on the daily. Nasty giveback in gold 2 days in a row, thank goodness I chucked my short-term GLD calls on this morning’s pop while I still could.

  28. Tammie
    Tammie says:

    Ok, ORIG reported and it wasn’t good…..I should have waited til after earnings release today to jump in…..oh wow. Geez.

      • R Byram
        R Byram says:

        It’s funny that sometimes they bounce once on the way to bankruptcy. There are still buyers at $.50 on the $1 in the aftermarket???!!!!, but I don’t think there is any doubt that they are going b/k.

          • Tammie
            Tammie says:

            I’ve been dumping my shares …..still have some in another account to get rid of…man oh man…..I might have to take the day off tomorrow and go do something other than look at a screen…. but all in all I’ll be ok….it put a dent in the gains I’ve made in the past few months but overall I’m still up…….I’m just dumping them and not looking back..all that can be done….might have to have a drink tonight 😛

          • Tammie Woodard
            Tammie Woodard says:

            I was able to do it in my Ameritrade account….didn’t think I’d be able to but it worked…I have a USAA retirement account that won’t let me do it though…..guess I’ll sell it for what I can get for it tomorrow….

          • Cason
            Cason says:

            I have 1 broker that does and one that doesn’t. The few times that you need a and don’t have, it really blows!

          • nancytheartist
            nancytheartist says:

            I will drink with you. Had that in my old account. I went to look at the damage, and I only have 7 shares. Pshew. I got it when it was spun out of DRYS. It had better value back then. I lost a ton in DRYS…it sits in that account taunting me…worth all of $14 now. Now its baby ORIG will be taunting me too. YIK!

          • Tammie
            Tammie says:

            I’ve had a stock here and there that sit in accounts taunting me like that…then I get tired of it staring at me and finally get rid of it 😛 ORIG seems to be hanging out at $1 right now….no telling what it might do at market open…..I sold a bunch after hours but still have a good bit in another account that won’t let me sell after hours…..maybe that’s a good thing in the long run…maybe it’ll go back up a pittance and I won’t lose as much as I would if I sold it now….I can dream….:P

          • Tammie
            Tammie says:

            Ah, I didn’t realize ORIG was a spin off of DRYS….I research financials some usually but I guess I didn’t research enough…..one article says they’ve been making deals with some of their creditors, etc. – I am going to research and find out if that was public knowledge….so in the future I might dig deeper into companies and will be able to see the red flags….IF they put that kind of info out there for the public to see (making deals with creditors, etc.)…..

    • Crystal
      Crystal says:

      Get a strong drink … I dont trust after hours action as the price can be manipulated on low volume AND sometimes the drop is an over-reaction.

      When I look at the chart.. It seems like ORIG puts in a pretty good bounce after steep sell offs.

    • daz clark
      daz clark says:

      Bonus, Thanks!

      NAK looks like its going to open BIG if the pre market ramp sticks, TGD earnings mentioned below, looks good 🙂

  32. nancytheartist
    nancytheartist says:

    Dreaded offering BTG….so glad I sold some 2 days ago. Finally I caught a break on one before it did that.

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