Friday Jobs Report
The May and June Jobs report numbers came in very low, and it was given an ‘F’ by many reviewing it. If we get another low number this morning, it will likely be graded an ‘F’ too. What if the numbers suddenly come in strong? It’s probably worth an ‘F’ too, for ‘fudging the numbers’. 🙂
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Today we’ll take a look at Oil, Gold, Silver, Miners and some energy stocks that seem to be setting up bullishly.
WTIC – With a close above the 10sma and a swing low in place, we may have our low in Oil. This could be an ICL and I do think that we will move up toward $60 or higher on the next move. I will discuss my longer term thinking on OIL ( Bullish) in the weekend report.
XLE – This was Wednesdays chart showing that the XLE was leading the way. It didn’t have follow through on Thursday, so we’ll look for that Friday.
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$GOLD – Day 8 for Gold and we are still in that sideways pause, as expected.
SILVER – This chart is a bit concerning to me honestly. I dont want to get everyone nervous, but if I see a chart set up like this, I wont usually have a trade on until it improves. Right now I do own EXK. We’ll see what happens over time, but Silver looks weak to me. I saw this same thing happening in Feb through March time period. At that time, Silver just went sideways. See the March time frame.
GDX – Day 8 and there is a small amount of divergence on the chart here too. This can still climb, you just get more volatility and sideways chop at times. This is why I have been saying that I expect a sideways move or pull back. It can pop higher and then pull back, or just pull back and move higher next week.
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In Thursdays report I stated that OIL was looking like it was close to putting in a low, so I wanted to keep an eye on some of the Oil / Energy stocks. Oils Cycles are very long, so when it bottoms there will be several weeks of trades setting up. These stocks are now beaten down, so they could see some great % gains going forward. I WILL discuss this more in the weekend report, for now I want to share some charts of interest. Please dont get overwhelmed, I’m not recommending all of these as ‘Buys’ right here. What I am doing is trying to point out that this sector is starting to look good. It may still be a tad risky for some if these are just starting to come out of the lows, but there will be time to enter later too on the dips. Some of the experienced traders here may be interested in trading these set ups.
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Let me post a couple from yesterday , just so you dont have to go back & find those charts.
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ALJ –
ALJ – Did not have strong follow through Thursday, but this is a small series of higher highs and higher lows, a mini channel. ALJ actually bottomed in early July.
Memp –
MEMP – Look at this weekly chart. If this has bottomed, the upside potential is great.
LPI –
LPI WEEKLY –
SM – I pointed this out Wednesday and it looks very good. It is almost at former highs already. See also my old Favorite CWEI.
SN – Earnings Monday Aug 8th.
GST – 
Lets look at a few newer ideas that I have been watching. There are a TON of ideas in this sector, but please remember the risk of volatility coming out of the lows.
CVI – This chart doesn’t look like much, but that could be a nice base forming.
CVI – If it returns to Mays pricing before the sell off, it is a double.
CRK – Double bottom
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The following are 2 charts that I think have HUGE potential if they break out. The consolidation has been VERY TIGHT as Oil sold off. These 2 didn’t sell off, they built long flat bases in a consolidation period. Will they break out upside after earnings or down? lets take a look.
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SXE — Earnings release as you read this 🙂 16 or so weeks of tight trade. Is that a false break down that started this week? The earnings report this morning will probably give us a break from this set up. The initial move MAY BE a false move.
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You knew this was coming…
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LGCY – From Wednesday. Earnings came out and LGCY did drop, BUT…
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After the earnings release, Look where LGCY dropped to. THIS IS ON MY WATCHLIST, and I want to be patient. The initial move out of that earnings report might be a fake out, and this could go higher. Again, be patient.
LGCY WKLY – The week is over at the close today. Where will LGCY close? Above or below the 30week MA?
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So we have some interesting set ups forming in the Energy sector. The set up in Oil is a bullish one longer term. If Oil can put that low in, we would see weeks and weeks of price climbing higher. I will discuss this in the weekend report. Have a great Friday and a great weekend, the weekend report will be released late Sunday or early Monday.
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~ALEX
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Alex, what do you think of GENE, chart? Safe entry wroth a stop below 2
Hi Steven
It seems to be in a basing range right now, and $2 seems to be a floor lately. It tried to break out higher in March, but sold back into the range.
The macd has crossed down, so we’ll see if the $2 area can support price. Its a fairly neutral chart at this point, unless one is trading this trading range
Thanks for another great week of ideas, sagely advice , and sanfrantastic gains dear man… Muahhhh… 🙂
Thx Muahhhhria
Alex, 200sma on the hourly chart is supporting Silver.
The silver chart is not healthy at this level, that support will give way
Alex I’ve carried a position in SIL for a long time. It’s up about 35% and I’m very close to pushing the sell button and lock in the gains. What do you think of that?
What are you asking? I’m ok with that if you want to sell : )
Hmmm….if silver is getting ready to give way that might change the way that I am going to trade our next top. Below $19.4 (still have plenty of room right now) would be a failed cycle and it’s way to early for that!!
I’m sure all of the Rate Rise hawks are going to come out of the woodwork now, but gold is only down a bit so far. I’ve certainly seen worse!
Hmmm…there goes $gold. Down for the count, hopefully a false move but we’ll have to see. Not sure how this jives with cycle counts now if we’re heading into a DCL??
This is why all week I told everyone I was selling all leverage before Friday. But If I can get them on sale now, I’m going to buy GLD calls. We’re on Day 8 so we expect to end next week higher than where we are going to close today. I was expecting a run to $1400 on this cycle. I guess we’ll have to wait and see what actually happens.
Too early to top! Just wiggling.
B2Gold beats by $0.01, beats on revs; on track to meet annual production guidance.
Reports Q2 net income of $0.03 vs $0.02 Capital IQ consensus; revs increased 21% YoY to $164.8 mln vs $163.9 mln consensus. Record quarterly consolidated gold production of 135,242 ounces, 4% (or 5,697 ounces) above budget and 11% (or 13,676 ounces) greater than the same period in 2015. Company is on track to meet its 2016 annual production
guidance range of 510,000 to 550,000 ounces of gold
That was a big drop in gold just now!
Probably reacting to the NFP number – it happened right after the report came out I think… ? Hoping it’s just a knee jerk reaction and will adjust up a bit…:)
So much for my hoping it was a knee jerk reaction……:(
So, is this a BUY THE DIP opportunity?
Gold at $1345 , Silver hits $19.77 and runs back up to $20.00.
Pull up your charts and lets take a look (Refresh)
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Anyone see anything on BAA and AUMN earnings yesterday?
I was searching like crazy for AUMN earnings and I dont even know if they came out with anything. I cant find the info.
Yea….I got nothing.
I just called and left a VM with their director of investor relations. Hopefully they call me back. Not that I have a horse in the race anymore. Feeling pretty good about selling yesterday, but now I have to stress about re-entry.
Thanks Eric, keep us posted. I sold before earnings too, expecting some type of volatility and just figured that I could get back in when it settles.
OK, they just called back and said as a matter of practice they’ve *never* pre-released the date when they will announce earnings. She did say “historically it’s been with in a week or so of our SEC filing deadline,” which for Golden is Aug.15th. Any dates out there, she said, are “just guesses–but people do that.” So there you have it.
Good stuff, Thanks for passing that on.
Thanks for being an excellent sleuth!
TRX gittin battered
I’ll say.
It’s actually coming back ( If you own it it may be a bounce to sell and be safe, or it may be a false break down.)
I saw it at $1.04, and now it is $1.13
is there any cause for alarm yet… to exit the miner space?
what failures are we looking for (soz..if you may have already mentioned it in past reports)
My thoughts too, the jobs report is good, gold tanked, trend change?
I hope not. We are WAY to early in for the DCL to fail, that would be cataclysmic. We should all expect last Monday’s lows in miners to hold.
The only thing getting an ‘F’ today is my miner portfolio!!
Go Oil!! GO!!
SALE! 20% OFF. Limited time only!
I had sold a good portion of my TRX at $1.37 a couple days ago, because the volume was SUPER light. I thought that it would be fine, but possibly would drop back to ‘test’ the triangle break out.
Yesterday I decided to add some of that to my AXU position, which looked to be breaking out on volume. I was 1 day too early on that purchase – lol
can you do us all a ‘volume signal’ tutorial some time plz?
.. like when to act on small vol as much as big vol.
thx
I could try, if I ever get time, but it’s honestly not a rule oriented thing with me. Its more of a gut feel and I see things and react differently than others. Volume is the gas in the tank, if it isnt there, theres not a good chance of going for a long ride
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do any of the other Canadians here trade the US MLP’s? Not sure if it is worth getting mixed up with the 35% withholding tax or not.
US dollar up big…wow
You always have the option to sell any positions that you want and stand on the sidelines to re-enter or walk away as it plays out if you feel that you are positioned to heavy. If you sell, you want to be patient and wait to see what is really going on before jumping back in. THAT takes time.
This is how I watch things as they play out. ( first breath in deeply, then exhale slowly, now your ready)…
Right now I am watching the 10sma, and for GDX it is support and holding . It dropped to $30.07 ( 10 sma) and now bounced to $30.30…so far so good, right?
My AXU dropped to the 10sma at $1.91 and then higher, now back above $2.00 ( So far so good, right) . I bought that at $1.60 area, so I am not worried unless it takes out that 10sma.
I dont know what that was with TRX : ) crazy. That is a bit suspicious, dropping to $1.02 and then bouncing back to $1.17.
I own it and sold some on that bounce at $1.16 just to watch how it plays out.
I’m buying here, I view this as an opportunity. This is why its good to have some cash.
The chart for GLD is looking a bit weaker – dropping on quite strong volume (on the hourly). It did not make it back up to the July 6 high before coming back down. Divergence with GDX and GDXJ making a new high while GLD did not.
I cleaned out a bunch of cash but spent a good bit on energy, still have 1 account 30% cash, will see if Mon presents more miner opportunities. This ICL will top out before long, will also need a plan for a more sustained pullback.
Sorry Alex, did I misunderstand? did you say silver is not looking good here? I know you said is Gold is holding the 10dma. Where do you see support for silver? Half cycle low maybe…another few days of selling then?
thx
Well, I have noticed very slight weakness in Miners the last few days ( GDX GDXJ), but I have noticed that SILVER really doesnt look right, so last night I drew up that chart just to point out that something isn’t well with Silver.
HOWEVER- I remember seeing this in the spring when Gold & miners were doing well, even silver stocks were REALLY getting their move on, but Silver was really lagging. Maybe you remember everyone talking about that? Most were concerned that Silver didnt break out like GOLD back then
When I look at the silver chart in the report, the same things were happening then. It went sideways basically for weeks, but then it did explode higher in April.
So – Silver isnt strong right now, but it is not on its death bed, it can consolidate and gain strength and eventually move higher too. These PAUSES happen all the time, if that is what this is. A knee jerk reaction to Jobs Report.
WNR seems to have bottomed a couple weeks ago out of a wedge and moving higher over 3% today
oil play
This is a refiner, right? not an E&P (exploration and production)? Two of the oil stocks Alex mentioned in the report today were refiners as well – ALJ and CVR
yep – refiner
Good morning, All –
I see Alex’s comment: “Silver hits $19.77 and runs back up to $20.00”
I’m traveling and without charts – is $19.77 the 10day SMA ?
What a day to be traveling…
Thanks!
No , Silver tagged the 10sma at $20.17ish yesterday and broke through it today.
It still may or may not recover it today, but Silver hasnt been following the 10sma anyway. miners have and Gold pretty much have been until they are ready to drop into a DCL.
thanks so much for spoon feeding me, Alex – I didn’t realize I should have gone back into your report. Sorry about that
And then there was that NRP gold stock.
Not sure if anyone followed me in Sugar (SGG) ….. I am moving my stop to BE…..currently at resistance at the TL, not a bad place to enter with a stop below that TL.
Planned on it. Still have time or did I miss the entry. Just REALLY preoccupied with managing my miners and starting energy, not that I didn’t like the look of SGG.
For me Cason it all about risk reward.
Currently in a Wave 5 up with minor 5 waves within that wave 5.
TRQ very frustrating… backtesting the H&S breakout a second time. Should it be sold?
Most of the energy plays I discussed yesterday are showing at least a bit of green. I’ve already added to SA, looking to add GLD calls, added USO calls this morning just after the open. Still BTD!! TRX on sale as well! And check out BTG less than 1.5% down with gold off more than $20; that’s strength. As long as you didn’t have extreme leverage, this shouldn’t be too bad!
NSU NRP are green
Cason please consider SLV and/or GDX Calls Leaps before GLD if these are for LT holds….spread between bid ask in GLD to wide for me.
Ok, I’ll check it out. I have some AGQ shares for silver exposure, that was unfun.
OAS $6.50 to $8.50 stong volume & MACD cross. nice
MEMP, CWEI, WPX, MPC, etc
Yes…my Oil basket is Not doing bad at all with OIL down .9 %
OAS got an upgrade by a covering analyst and had good numbers on earning.
yes I got my fill thanks to u
Nice!!! OAS had no business selling at $6.60, that wasn’t a fair price for the stock even considering the oil slide. Folks that sold there should be pissed.
This could easily be a HCL in the PM’s. imho.
Planning on adding a small traunch of GDX Calls by the EOD.
EXK climbing back!
i hope everyone understands all of these acronyms. It must be hard for the people who are not into the game everyday to understand what is being said in some of these posts.
it would be helpful if someone posted all acronyms with definitions I know most of them but not all HCL?
Half Cycle Low
Again, I have a long list of energy stocks turning green, and some are even taking off.
Oil is down, this usually bodes well for the energy sector at turning points
SGG……..Cason did ya get in? up +3% now.
Not yet. I was on the road and without network all weekend in the mountains. Headed back to civilization now, need to do due (hehehe) diligence real quick. Thanks for head’s up. Was all over oil last week.
In a bear market miners would be down a lot more than they are. That said, I am surprised they have bounced as much as they have with $gold sitting on its lows all day.
Also….volume is average (at best), if not quite light on this sell-off.
We have seen these flushes before. They are good.
Agree. Have to love the way they pullback orderly now instead of full chaos like it used to be for 4 years!
Look at today’s CRK candle vs June 6th candle. Obviously, we have a few hours left, but it looks promising.
Did anyone notice shippers? Every one of htem looks quite bullish, and I looked up about 10 of them , they all released their earnings this week or last
for ex: Earnings are out on
DSX, TNK, SB, SALT, SHIP ( wow) ,
SINO = Wow, earnings in May were good, I havent seen the latest.
hi alex
is there an etf for these ones ?
sea
GLBS
that s much better – Up 14 % mille gracie
OK THANKS – that’s only up 1 % …. peanuts compare to 33% with sino for example
yes, sea
NAK really held up Today.
NAK has been a champ : )
I can’t decide whether the weekly chart just finished the a-b+c-d and sell a little, or just let it ride.
Then I look at the 3 yr weekly and I think I’ll just let it ride – they do extend at times, and that volume is great
If we are on day 8, AND we are in a new Bull market, just let it ride.
This is my list of shippers that I follow as of right now ( 1 or 2 ARE NOT SHIPPERS, I dont know how Office depot got in there and AMRS )
Refresh
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Some of the charts of the above look really nice, and may be sailing along due to OIL perking up. Please do due diligence : )
You said Do Due
Man, I have a friend that gets me on that all the time 🙂
Muahhhh
Dork
Your immaturity brings a smile to my face! Boyz.
Oil is coming back!
Wow, wish I’d gotten MCEP when I was looking at it the other day!
Buying starter positions in OAS and LGCY here before the bell. Decided not to reenter PMs yet (thought I’ve still got my AG that I bought around $11!) because to me, the 5 minute chart doesn’t look done with 15 minutes left to go. *bort bort*
BORT is back! 🙂
Oil banged it’s head on the 41.87ish resistance 3 times now. I think it has some more work to do so no more positions for me right now – I have PXT, RRX, PPY all on the TSX exchange – core, not flashy, now I can wait for some better set up’s.
NAK didn’t get the memo that gold was down today.
ERF came back from the depths as well:)
I can’t tell from the chart, was today an outside reversal for gold?