Monday Review And Core Discussion

SPX – Not much has changed over the past several days, but consolidations often lead to strong moves.

 

WTIC – The weekend report showed a reversal at the 200sma as  possible support, but with long daily cycles in Oil, it is smart to wait for confirmation. Many energy stocks started to look pretty good, but Oil gave it up Monday.  Shake out? Time will tell. Look at the 50% retrace.

 

 

GOLD & MINERS

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GOLD – I was looking for a possible Back test of the break out and then it continues higher.  BUY the back test.

GOLD  – Day 7 of a new daily cycle, MACD about to cross up, this was the break out and back test, it can now continue  higher.

 

GDX – Day 5 of a new daily cycle, but each time the MACD crossed the Miners just went sideways and left people guessing before it did begin moving higher.  So if it pops and drops, tht doesn’t mean that it is over.  Can we just get a break out & immediately run higher? Yes. Personally I want to see Volume continue to increase, I want buyers to still exist ( or doubters/ shorts) to have to cover.

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SO Not much has changed, except that Oil didn’t hold support.  Gold and Miners should run higher, we should be positioned there, and have been re-positioning in Miners since Late May and early June.  The next part of this report is going to be long and is NOT important to todays trading, read it when you have time.   I will not have time to proof read it, please excuse typos  : ) 

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~ALEX

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If you have been with Chartfreak for a while, you have noticed that we’ve been buying stocks well before they break out, even when they look lack luster.  Suddenly and seemingly out of nowhere,  BOOM, they get going.  I had an article on Giraffe necks to highlight this.    Lets just spend a moment going through the anatomy of a trade, because it builds confidence in the future set ups that I can present as time goes on.  We also can discuss my Core position, and what yours could be.

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TGD – This Goes way back to January 2016. In 2009 TGD ran up 1700%, and yes over time it could do that again.  THIS could still be a part of anyone s core position, even though it is up over 400% from where I first started buying it at 9 cents. It is currently at about 60 cents, lets go through the trades.  ( There is a tighter wedge inside of this wedge, not shown and TGD has broken from both now).

In January – We didn’t know which Miners would survive that bear mkt, but the charts show progress.  I was buying this at 9 cents,12 cents, 13 cents, etc, and reporting it here as it broke above the 13 ema (Bullish) . Read the chart.

TGD MARCH – Clear break out and bullish inverse H&S set up. A Run to 60 cents resistance should occur over time, but it might slow at the resistance on the left first.

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Fast forward to now.  When the ICL seemed to be in in Late MAY, I mentioned buying this at the 200sma, and I know that some here did. 🙂  Congrats! IT has doubled since then, and yet to some it seems that TGD & BAA are laggers and have hardly moved. They are doing well.

2 weeks ago, again pointing this out as one that is set up nicely, I thought we could get a strong “Giraffe’ Pop. It remained a Miner to add to positions.

It kind of stalled when it shot up to $0.55 in July from there and then dropped back to $0.45, but that was a valid back test. Today it is at $0.60 cents and resistance may not hold this back. If it pulls back, add. It may just burst higher.

TGD WKLY – Resistance may not matter here.

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In the weekend  report I stated…

CORE – I have received a few emails about “Core” holdings over the past few weeks.  I’ve also hear,  “What do you own as Core holdings?  I think I should own those as my core too”.   I want to address it here, because it really is a common question, and understandably so. People are now seeing the reality if the type of run that these Miners can have in a bull market and want to just ride some of them , ignoring the wiggles. I think that it is advantageous to hold a core, but you have to ignore the wiggles. Would GPL and GSS be good in a Core?  I think so, but this past 2 weeks has been disappointing in them. Core is LONG TERM, weren’t there dissapointing weeks in that TGD chart above ? Look at the month of MAY.  That could be GPL now.  You cannot let the wiggles change your view unless they are more than wiggles.   Let me discuss MY ‘Core’  holding idea briefly though.

In 2015 I was discussing CORE positions.  If you were a member then, you may recall that I pointed out a few stocks that had already bottomed long before the recent bottom.  RIC, NG, LSG, and a few others were  pointed out with these charts.  THEY became my Core positions initially, because they showed strength in the bear market.  Lets review.

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RIC bottomed in 2013.  I said that some should make this a part of their core when it was under $3.  Read what I wrote on this chart, it became part of my core above $1 and $2 here, it is now $11.

 

RIC – So if someone says,  “What is in your core, I want to copy you?”  and I say , ” I own RIC, go buy it.”  Does that make sense here, knowing that I bought it for $1 & $2?  It is $11.  I do think RIC can go a lot higher, but an ICL is coming up in late SEPT or OCT and…

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WE could actually see a drop to $7.50 or $8 going into the ICL,  think about how OIL is dropping now into an ICL now. When OIL was trading at $54, it seemed that it couldn’t drop to $40, and when these Miners are on Fire, it seems that the fire wont go out here either, but an ICL is coming in late Sept / OCT.

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TRX – I really started adding to this base as a core as it broke above and back tested important moving averages on a wkly basis.  36 cents, 45 cents, etc.  With a base like this, I ALWAYS say that things can get explosive.  If this POPs as I had suspected under Giraffe neck conditions, you could then hold as a core, because these lows likely would not be tested again  ( Same as VGZ, MUX, CDE, AG, etc).

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So just because it is a good part of my core down at $0.33 – $044 , should I tell you,   “I own TRX as a core, add it now as a part of your core’?    This was July 27th, today it is actually now $1.39.  You can see why I may never sell my $0.30 &   $0.40’s purchases this year. It developed into a core position, because my gains became about 300% in a month. My core here can have a stop at 90 cents and still lock in solid gains.

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AU – This is from my report in December, and I had been posting this for months as a “Core” candidate, because it bottomed well before Gold last December ( AU bottomed in July)  and had now broken out and back-tested a huge wedge. If this is in my CORE at $6.50 , should you buy it today just because I own it?

AU  Aug 1st–  Dont buy it just because I own it, but it is a good company in my opinion and could double from here.  Now it is over $22, so I can’t recommend it as your core just because it might be a part of mine.

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NG – Bottomed in 2013. I pointed this bottom out in 2015 and mentioned that NG could become a core position as it builds a base.  Why? Because NG  battled the Bear Mkt and was winning, so why not add it as core back in 2015 at $3 when it made a higher low, and a stop comfortably below?

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TAHO – A long base and plenty of upside, good fundamentals, I was pointing this out as very bullish long term when it was $8, $9, and $10.  They had great earnings, a dividend, upgraded by analysts, etc.  They even bought a “Core” company that I owned and loved  (LSG).

They bought LAKESHORE, a company that I owned heavily as a core and recommended here before it got bought out. It bottomed in 2013 at 25 cents and fought the bear market, obviously a solid company to be able to do that and be at $1.07 at the end of that bear market, shown here. This is recommended as a “Core” position.

 

In FEB I recommended it here under $1, this is a strong pattern. I expected a giraffe neck. 

And got one shortly after, but they were soon  purchased  by Taho.

So TAHO has been a bit of a slow gainer.  They are up about 100% from Feb Lows, and it has good potential in the long run, in my opinion.

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AG –  This is an actual clip from my Feb 6th report encouraging a BUY of this break out.  I already owned some. I was saying that Gold & Miners likely put in FINAL lows.  I had been encouraging RIC, NG, LSG, etc as CORE holdings even earlier than this report, because they bottomed well before all of the others.  They were showing real strength even before  Miners came out of the Bear Mkt.   So take a look at this clip from the Feb report, and notice First Majestics Price.  In the 2009 run, AG went from 90cents to $27 in 2 yrs.  That shows the potential of some of the Miners currently moving higher!

Today AG, First majestic, is over $17.  Very nice.  Now read the chart for the rest of the story.  Start on the left.

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So again,  I am getting emails saying that I should just post my CORE positions so that others can copy my positions.  That will not work. I acquired a lot of my core at the end of the bear market and they are up 400, 500, 700% already.  I’m only holding some ( like TRX ) because they took off and ran strongly as I accumulated it on the way up.   TGD may be next, I will sell 1/2 on the way up, and if it bull flags, I ‘ll just hold on .  In the U.S. we pay a higher capital gains tax for positions held less than 1 year. Holding solid gains for over a yr is advantageous that way too, as long as prices do not drop and take it all back.

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The point of this article is clear, my core is accumulated along the way for more than 8 months, and often now have a purchase price WAY LOWER than it is now.  “What do you have as your core, I’ll just copy it” doesn’t work.  I am holding some of my core simply for the reason that in the U.S., if you sell before holding it for 1 year, you pay a higher % for the gains in Capitol Gains Tax. Some of my Miners are up 500-700%.    I do believe that the bear market is over, and I believe MOST of these Miners are going to be  A LOT higher a year and  2 years from now.  Find a nice long base breaking out and accumulate a little.  If you re right and it moves higher, you can add to your position. Do some due diligence and just buy and hold a solid company, with good fundamentals.  Maybe buy at the next ICL and just be prepared to hold through the wiggles.

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BAA – Recently I pointed out this huge base, is it a part of your core? I see huge potential. Can you buy & ride the wiggles? I first recommended BAA at $0.15 and $0.20. It took forever, but it doubled and tripled now. It has PLENTY of upside potential over time, wouldn’t you say?

JULY 27th – I zoomed in Last week and posted this bullish set up. It is still at $0.42.  I think the train may be leaving the station on this one soon.