Friday Thoughts

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Yes, I liked that picture so much that I decided to carry it forward to Friday.  PLUS, I’m still waiting for the recent purchases to really run strongly 🙂 .  Some of our stocks were green Thursday, even though Gold and the GDX sold off. Lets discuss our markets for a brief Friday report and then review Miners.  This is the last trading day of the week, so there is not a lot of new things to say.

 

 

FOR EXAMPLE –  The SPX looks the same again! More sideways movement.  However, while the SPX goes sideways and consolidates the recent gains…

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THE NASDAQ has been chugging along playing catch up. Check out charts of GPRO, GRPN, KONA ( This could be a buy now that it broke from a downtrend), AMZN ( BIG JUMP IN AFTER HRS), etc.  When the markets run and eventually pull back, these could be buy candidates for those wanting to invest in tech stocks. The question is…”Will the NASDAQ break out eventually too?”  It looks like it may want to pull back first to build steam for a run higher.

NAZ 7-28

 

WTIC – Way back on July 8th, with the amount of time left in Oils cycles, I just had a feeling that this was going to droop down in a rounding top pattern toward that 200sma.

$WTIC 7-7

 

WTIC–  And there we have it. If that volume is real, we could be capitulating into a final low. I’m not sure that it is real, it often changes when I check it the following day. ( PSSST, Hey stockcharts, I love you , can you work on that?).

WTIC 7-28 a

 

WTIC – This may not be THE lows.  We could bounce off of the 200sma, but…

WTIC 7-28 b

WTIC – I think we could then drop again to a final low. I’ll know better as this plays out.

WTIC 7-28 c

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NATGAS has put in a low. This is going to make another run higher. I want to point something out and I want you to think of the GDX.  Look at the DCL on this chart 6 days ago.  See how it popped up for 2 days, and then dropped for 3 days , and THEN Thursday exploded higher. Just because the lows are in, it does NOT mean that you have to get instant gratification.  Selling that 3 day drop was costly. The stop is below the DCL.

NATTY

 

UGAZ – This 3xETF for NATTY was up 26 % . I used this chart to point out what I said above.  See the Dcl? THEN IT POPPED ( blue circle) , AND DROPPED FOR 3 days (red line).  IS GDX doing that now with the drop Thursday?  Patience is a virtue, a stop below the DCL will not be triggered if it is in fact a DCL. 

UGAZ 7-28

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GOLD-  So should we be worried that Gold Popped on Fed Wed, and now it has dropped? No.

GOLD 7-28 a

 

GOLD – I have actually seen this 1000 times before. A strong POP and then nothing.  That makes buyers feel like they were wrong, that they are looking at weakness that will just drop. They sell and miss the real move  🙁  This DCL does meet the requirements of being a confirmed DCL.  I expect higher prices soon enough.

GOLD 7-28 b

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SILVER – Silver is the same story. A POP and a 2 day stall was seen coming out of the June lows.

SILVER 7-28

GDX – I actually like the look of GDX today.  It popped on day 2, and Thursday day 3 was a little back test.  I expect higher prices. Selling volume was very light Thursday.

GDX 7-28

Some miners were red today, others were green  ( TRX, VGZ, AXU, NAK ( looked very good) , etc).  Try not to let any ‘wiggles’ worry you.  The GDX should not break below the recent lows if the DCL is in place.  See the past few reports for Miners ideas,  and I will discuss more in the weekend report that will be out late Sunday or early Monday.Happy  Friday and have a great weekend!

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~ALEX

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NAK –  I like the looks of this as it holds the 20sma, and I own it. This looks ready to make another move higher soon.

NAK

NAKS POTENTIAL on the weekly is great.  Do you see the break out and back test on this weekly wedge?

NAK 7-11

 

VGZ – June 24th.  I have pointed many of those weekly wedge break outs before,  and we have made serious cash once they get going. NO GUARANTEES, but the set up is bullish in NAK at this point. 

VGZ 6-24w

191 replies
  1. Moondoggie
    Moondoggie says:

    I like that picture too !!!
    But I wish it was me in the picture … and I had a Panther on the leash 😉

  3. Johnny
    Johnny says:

    Great example of pop and stall. Thanks for a Friday report Alex. That always feels like a bonus! Happy trading everyone.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I know, when I started this service, I honestly always pictured that Thursdays reports would cover Friday and then the weekend would wrap it all up. SO I was going to have a weekend report, and then TUES, WED, THURS .

      Then we had the Thursday NATGAS reports and Friday JOBS reports constantly affecting things, so I had to write updates on many Fridays.

      Now it is a habit : )

  4. Bill
    Bill says:

    Good Morning and Thanks Alex. I got in real early so I can take a small draw down. A near perfect bottom buy on NUGT at $118. I bought MUX Yesterday, not sure how that will work out.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Yes, you reported “real Time” that with NUGT, anything under $120 would satisfy you , especially when NUGT was at $200 in a few weeks : )

      NIce trade

  6. Geurt.
    Geurt. says:

    Thanks ALEX for your report, short and powerful I like it.
    Question: How looks GG today, after a big down day yesterday?

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          Hi Geurt

          Yes, GG had earnings and got dropped a bit. If you look at JUNE and MAY, it also had big down days in those months and slowly recovered. I think that the Bull in Miners is back, and that drop was just a reaction and profit taking, but going forward I still think miners will be viewed as buy the dip bullish.

          So GG should recover over time.

          • Geurt.
            Geurt. says:

            ALEX….. I love you my dear friend, excellent explained.
            Have a good day and a blessed weekend.
            See you later.

  9. Maria
    Maria says:

    mornin all :o) Happy Friday
    CF … I coulda supplied you with today’s image… ;o)

    cason… remember this old chart? where I ‘flipped’ the last move w/ the 38 target … shazammmm .. i added that 200 sma..
    wow.. just wow right? amazing how that works… we shall see.. willllllllll itttttt .hollllld? ;o)

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/NSpZ44Jg/

    • R Byram
      R Byram says:

      I remember that chart well Maria – printed it out and left it on my desk – and it probably saved me a stop out or two!

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Is this todays Imagige for the report – LOL.

      Thats a great Friday image after a good week of calls. Bottom in Gold & MIners, OIL tags the 200 sma as expected, SPX break out and stall.
      Kind of like…”Nothin’ else to say” 🙂

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Sure do remember boss lady! I was terribly bearish oil there at the fail. I was nasty long for that $57 and we didn’t get her. So I big nasty short and made ‘er all back in SCO. Now, I might be able to be talked into going long n’ strong!

  11. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    Lately I have had a few ‘errors’ come up while posting a reply, and DISQUS apologizes for it.

    I dont know if anyone else has experienced it here, but the way they handle it kind of makes it alright.

    I try to post a reply , and it flips me to this link…

    http://disqus.com/embed/comments/

    and that link comes up different every time. Check it out, it makes mistakes feel a little less annoying : )

    try it 3 or 4 times if you are bored

    • Bill
      Bill says:

      You did everything except push the buy button for us. I had it and sold it when some of the other flags started selling off. Wish I kept it now.

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        The way things are going, there will be plenty more chances with many others.

        NGD and NSU just came out with good earnings and are breaking to new 2016 highs. Its a whole new ballgame this year : )

        • Bill
          Bill says:

          It was hard to chase TRX. I’ll look for additional setups with your guidance. Im holding, MUX, EXK, CDE, NUGT, AUMN currently. I’ll be selling a large amount of LABU soon and will look for your reports for possible BUYs.

          • Bill
            Bill says:

            I’ve had LABU a while now (aro 35%), I bought NUGT last week. I’ve almost caught LABU % wise in profit. Amazing how fast NUGT moves

          • Maria
            Maria says:

            yeah.. same.. i was almost ‘disappointed’ lol in how slowly it GAINED.. swapped it out for nugt.. gonna TRY and hold this leg – it’s in my swing act. .. annnnd well my trading act as well… 😉
            eeeny meeny miney mow.. uwti or nugt………….. or ugaz lol
            ohBoy.. hazards of CFland
            #Spoiled 😉

          • Bill
            Bill says:

            I have a limit order in to sell some LABU at $43. I am using TQQQ as a guide, as long as that is moving higher, so should LABU. Then I’ll wait patiently for ALex’s next 17% a day moving stock.

          • Cason
            Cason says:

            Yeah, nice trade Bill. I should have had more faith. I planned as a short term and traded my plan so that’s still a win, just a smaller one.

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        Well, it was a giraffe, and I exoect that this can make a run for $2, but I do not like todays volume. Usually this means that it lacks buyers and can drop back down a bit or go sideways for a while ( maybe to the 10sma) and then continue higher.

  16. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    NSU, CLD, CENX , NGD, YRCW, AKG – All released earnings and all showing surprises to the upside.

    This is encouraging, with higher Gold & Silver prices, Miners could be a buy & Hold during earnings, instead of a run for the hills like they used to be.

    CLD & YRWC are not miners, I just threw them in there since we mentioned them in reports.

  22. Crystal
    Crystal says:

    So many of many of my stocks are starting to crank! – thanks Alex and everyone here for their EXCELLENT – (said like Bill and Ted) advice. Anyone else here the guitar solo from Free Bird in their head when these stocks start to move?

  25. R Byram
    R Byram says:

    Alex – a couple of the gold miners I am watching are dragging a bit today – AUY, VGZ, NMI.

    I could stand to put some more $ to work – so you see anything positive or negative about taking on some risk in these today?

        • Ken
          Ken says:

          Most if not all their Mines outside of North America if I remember correctly……risk adverse imo.

        • nancytheartist
          nancytheartist says:

          Here from their website:

          Eldorado Reports Second Quarter 2016

          TSX: ELD NYSE: EGO

          VANCOUVER, July 28, 2016 /CNW/ – Eldorado Gold Corporation, (“Eldorado” or “the Company”) is pleased to announce the Company’s financial and operational results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2016. Eldorado reported gold production of 124,110 ounces (2015: 181,160 oz) at an average cash operating cost of $607 per ounce (2015: $569/oz). Adjusted net earnings for the quarter was $11.7 million ($0.01 per share) compared to adjusted net earnings of $17.0 million ($0.02 per share) in 2015.

          “Quarterly production was in-line with internal plans and we are expecting to produce a total of 570,000 ounces of gold at all in sustaining cash costs of $930 per ounce and cash costs of $595 per ounce for the full year 2016,” stated Paul Wright, President and Chief Executive Officer of Eldorado.

          “Development work at Skouries is ramping up following the Technical Study approval in early May. The Olympias Phase II development continues on schedule and initial production is expected in the first quarter 2017. I am also pleased to report that during the quarter we announced the sale of our Chinese assets, specifically the Jinfeng, White Mountain and Tanjianshan mines, as well as the Eastern Dragon project. The two transactions, expected to close in the third and fourth quarters, will result in an even stronger balance sheet. This balance sheet will enable us to re-invest in our high quality internal project pipeline and provide long term growth for Eldorado.”

          – See more at: http://www.eldoradogold.com/news-and-media/news-releases/press-release-details/2016/Eldorado-Reports-Second-Quarter-2016-Results/default.aspx#sthash.mX7hMrfD.dpuf

          • R Byram
            R Byram says:

            That is a non-GAAP report.

            From the 10Q – actual loss was 330million ($0.46) per share. They have senior debt of 600M, accumulated deficit of 2Bill and a current ratio of 1 – so not in good shape. I usually hang up the phone after a quick peak into these miners – most of them suck.

      • Brent Hoffman
        Brent Hoffman says:

        EGO is struggling partly because of its exposure to the unrest/uncertainty in Turkey

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      No, But I dont like seeing GOLD up $17 and seeing some of these just hanging around. AUY has heavy volume in that drop so I would watch that one for another day personally.

      I own VGZ, MAYBE its just resting after a good 40 % run in 3 days. ( $1.25 to $1.75 is rather impressive).

      I have been slightly disappointed in AUMN lately, I hate stocks that I own when they climb on lighter and lighter volume, and I own a good amount of that.

      NMI?

  27. Bill
    Bill says:

    That is one long base on OIL (UWTI). When it breaks its going to be epic. Looking at the daily chart on UWTI. Refresh

  29. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    As a letter writer, I could never recommend Oil or Oil stocks at this point and sleep at night

    As a guy with an eye to the sky, It does kind of look like OIL tags the 200sma and enough people are bearish, Oil stocks are doing bullish engulfing , etc

    Low risk entry for the nimble anyway. A bounce at least, and maybe a bottom, but I WILL SAY THIS…

    If this is OILS LOW, you have PLENTY OF TIME to get in on the next run. They are MONTHS long

  30. jscottrx
    jscottrx says:

    My brothers and i just inherited the other half of our NW LA ancestral property’s natty wells from my dad’s sis. she had no kids or spouse. pure dumb luck lottery win. why me. world’s crumblin’ around me then wham out of the blue. plus a million cash taxes paid. throw a sheet over me. shock.

      • jscottrx
        jscottrx says:

        we did not expect her to throw us each $1,000,000 cold hard cash taxes paid. we are in shock. i want it protected. thus the headache of healthcare, umbrella liability in case i am at fault in auto acc and there is death. never know. “…gonna give it all away, to my favorite charity, all i need is a pint a day…” SPCA.

          • jscottrx
            jscottrx says:

            well i retired at 41 in 2001 a space oddity. guess i will ramp up the old “um, who wants to have a lil fun…” lol.you are born, ya live, and then ya die, so do yasef a favor and go get a slice of jsc pie lol.

          • jscottrx
            jscottrx says:

            the lunatic, is on the grasse. i was born in dallas county. this senseless headline grabbing violence will not stand.

        • jscottrx
          jscottrx says:

          we did not really know our aunt. she was a very private person. but obviously one of the smarter guys in the room. who knows how much her estate was worth but uncle sam got 40%+ of every nickel over $5.34mil. ashes to ashes, earth to earth, and dust to dust. sleep in heavenly peace.

          • jscottrx
            jscottrx says:

            the “death” tax. she had a few specific bequests in her will. $100,000 to the SPCA and $100,000 to a TX place “Habitat For Horses”.

  31. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    SAND, BTG, RIC, SWC, NGD etc etc all breaking to new 2016 highs. Many many good set ups, looks pretty good.

    GDX & GDXJ looking to break out too

    Have a good weekend all, next week might really be fun !

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Not new highs but MUX looked great this week. XRA been a bit of a dog. GDX/J both new 52-week highs.

      Most of junior miners were just kind of ok today. But GDX calls and NUGT made some serious money!!

  33. Cason
    Cason says:

    Guys, no reason to wait for Sunday for your CHaa-Ts (best New England accent possible). Is this a swing? Just ask yourself if you believe!

    *F5*

  34. Cason
    Cason says:

    I have a few GDX calls. I sold 2 at end of the day. Probably shouldn’t have since they are ITM so time premium is pretty much nil at this point. But, by exiting just a few, it paid for all so no matter what happens next week, can’t lose. But it is overbought? NO!!!

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