July 17 – Weekend Report

Last week the SPX broke to new all time highs.

We expected that, since it was just coming out of a new ICL, and I pointed out on the DOW and SPX that we had a bullish 3 white soldiers pattern in play. This is a bullish reversal pattern after a sell off.

SPX DAILY – Since there is no overhead resistance, it can just continue higher, but a 1/2 cycle low would provide a back test.

 

The NASDAQ is a little behind, but it may break out from this lower highs pattern this week.

 

BKS – They looked horrible.  Still not overly bullish, but they are now improving too.  

You can look up MS, JPM, BAC, and some of the other bank stocks and see them slowly improving. Morgan Stanley looks like it may have put in a base in 2016.

SO the general markets look good, but I looked at some of the stocks and I dont see tons of very bullish stocks at new highs with the markets at new highs.  Former flyers like AAPL is still under $100.  WMT and AMZN do look good,  but it’s a mixed bag at this point. I’m scanning for leaders, but again, it’s a mixed bag.  You can check out charts of WMT, AMZN, AAPL, KNDI, TASR, MU, CY, MOBI, DDD, for ideas. 

 

USD WKLY – Personally I think that this weekly chart is also improving ever since the Brexit vote tookplace. This was an ugly chart rolling over, but this kind of shows progress. Lets see the daily.

 

USD DAILY – I took away the name to look at this in an unbiased manner.  If his was a mining company, I would say that it it looks like it wants to push above the 200sma.   So the USD needs watching, but recently the USD goes up & Gold goes up.  The USD drops and It is not affecting Gold as closely as it used to. For now, it will be watched.

 

WTIC WKLY –  This could be 1-2-3-4 of 5,  but I will not recommend viewing oil that way.

 

WTIC –  Using cycles, Oil looks to be in a failed 3rd daily cycle, and it could go lower or sideways for weeks. Daily cycles can last 30+ days, and this is only day 19. The 50sma will likely hold oil down.

 

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PRECIOUS METALS

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GOLD – I am told that other cycle guys believe that Gold is in the first daily cycle and on day 32.  That would be great, we’d be due for a DCL and then a 2nd daily cycle higher.

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Below is my Gold chart from THURSDAY JULY 14, and I called a DCL on Brexit, because Miners definitely put one in there.  Even with this count, it is bullish with a 1/2 cycle low and another move higher. SO Gold is still bullish to me, even with this dip now. This $1320 tag of the MA  ‘MIGHT’ be all it dips.

Friday JUNE 15 – Nothing changed. A drop to the purple line was mentioned as a possible back test. $1320 ‘MIGHT’ be all we get for a dip. I’ll watch that if Gold sells off Monday.  It can go lower for a back test, but doesn’t have to.

GOLD WKLY –  drop to 1300 still looks very normal with the 10 & the 200 ma converging there soon. I’ll watch that too.

 

Golds Big Picture – Gold just tagged the 38.2%  fib retrace and has stalled.  If it breaks through and goes to the 50% Fib #, we’ll see GOLD $1480 ish.  This looks very possible. 

Once again –  Just in case you see Gold dropping, a back test of the break out and rising trend line are easily seen as possible.

 

 

Silver closed the week at $20.30. This was Thursdays chart, but it hardly changed. Extended but in a Bull run, it can keep running under current conditions. For cautiousness sake – we want to realize that it is very extended, but coming out of that base these can just keep running.

 

GDX WKLY – We see a doji candle, but on this run up, we have seen a few ‘1 week red candles’ and then a continuation higher. What a bull run this has been.

Note : That first run from the ICL  ( circled in red) ran and didn’t peak until week 15.  I dont expect that this time, but it is only week 7 right now.

 

GDX DAILY – THAT is definitely a DCL in June.  THAT is why I say GOLD also put one in on Brexit.  We are on Day 16 of the second daily cycle. The 1st daily cycle was short, this one could be long to balance things off. It could peak in a week or even 2 weeks.

 

GDXJ WKLY– GDXJ has powered through resistance in 2016. read the chart.

SO I remain Bullish on Metals and Miners until I see a reason to back off.  I dont want to sound reckless,and I know that Miners are basically pretty extended using certain indicators, but using cycles I still expect a run higher. They have also been popping and running higher even when Gold is down $20.  Since the ICL at the end of May, %-Gains have been nothing short of excellent in many of them, so we have to make hay while the sun shines. Last week was a bright sun shiny week.

 

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So lets just quickly review a few things, and you can always go back to last weeks reports and look up some of the Miners mentioned.  Some are on the move, others are still set up nicely.

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TGD – This was my pick for Thursday and Fridays trading. This chart shows a set up of sort of a cup & loose handle, but I liked the ‘gap fill and recovery’  all in 1 day. Nice buying came in

TGD DAILY – It did POP as expected. Congrats that bought it and got at least the 16% move Friday. Some wrote that they bought it when I recommended it weeks ago.  I bought it as it bounced off of the 200sma and reported that here.  Buying down there, you now have a 100% move. I think that you will see follow through , but…

TGD WKLY – TGD is at resistance. THAT kind of volume can push this right through it. We’ll see what this week has to offer.

TGD DAILY- We’ve seen the real long giraffe necks, and this is a baby.

TRX – On July 12th I pointed out a possible bull flag. It could be bought with the idea that they usually break out higher, but knowing that it also may turn into a consolidation as shown.  

 

TRX July 16 –  It is currently setting up like it wants to make a run higher. Read the charts foot note.

 

If this resistance breaks, TRX can fly again.

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GSS – I also called for GSS to break out last week before it really took off.  Friday I expected follow through, but it ran up & sold off. Is the move all done? I do not think so, but I could picture it putting in a handle. 

 

GSS WKLY –  This is why GSS may be rising and selling off on Friday. IT has reached resistance. It might just bust right through next week, we can’t know for sure , but it remains a bullish set up. 

I want to show how ( or why) resistance works.  I will use AUMN.   When AUMN got up to former highs, you can imagine that the ones that bought that consolidation in April are selling to get their money back. The selling started drying up as it dropped to the 10sma, so I pointed that out July 7th on this chart.

 

AUMN – Support at the 10 sma may mean that the sellers are gone. Look how light that volume is. This may be running out of sellers.  This was Thursday, I recommended it at the end of Friday morning report. 

SO –  Now we see AUMN trying to break out and Volume basically quadrupled .  Could AUMN break out this week?  Read this chart…

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During the multi year bear market just experienced in Precious metals and miners, many bear market rallies get sold off again, and those that held on last year and did not honor stops get trapped with losses.  Many dont want to sell with such big losses on the books, so they hang on and wait for price to come back to roughly where they bought it.  When price returns to around their buying area,  they then just want to bail out at small losses, break even, or even small gains.  It is a relief for them just to get this out of their portfolio.

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PLEASE READ THIS CHART

 

NOW READ THIS CHART – It is the same as AUMN above, but shows the period after sellers are gone and only buyers remain.  🙂

 

So barring any bad news, ugly earnings report with no future hopes, etc., many of these bases become spring boards for much higher prices when the Bull returns.Please do your own Due Diligence on these companies. Many are improving dramatically with GOLD & SILVER prices rising. Last January when I was recommending Miners, I heard many analysts saying that all these Juniors need to go bankrupt before the Bull rally could begin. We were called crazy for buying CDE or MUX.   Now they are up 100’s of %.   GOLD was selling at $1040 back then, but now that it is selling at $1340, and could go to $1440. I would expect earnings are going to improve greatly quarter over quarter when they are selling their gold for $300 -$400 /oz more.

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That is your weekly wrap up. Though Gold could dip down further this week, I still see many set ups in Miners that look bullish, and I am holding my miners at this point.  Lets see what Monday throws our way,  have a great week and thanks for being a chartfreak!

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~ALEX