Singing Kumbaya By The Fire
We’ve been investing in and trading Miners, singing by the fire and enjoying the gains…
I’ve been calling Miners the best game in town. Then suddenly I’m looking at that strong reversal in Oil Tuesday and wandered over to Energy set ups well before Oils Lows were confirmed. Some Energy stock set ups did and still do look good, but Oil did not look as great. Even though I said that I am holding my Miner positions and may even still add on any dips, it may be a mistake to leave the warmth of that fire to venture in other areas until Oil confirms a low. Why not just stay with what is working? I added 1 Energy stock, and now Oil itself looks ugly again.
Today we’ll look at the SPX, and then discuss Oil, Energy, Commodities, Metals and Miners.
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SPX – Since the bullish break out to new highs, a measured move has almost been met. These moves can extend and if it dosn’t extend, if a pull back starts, this remains bullish even after a pullback.
General Markets have put in an ICL and should remain bullish after the recent break to new highs by the DOW & SPX for a while. I can discuss that some more in the weekend report. Lets go to Oil / Energy.
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WTIC – What is happening here? I have said that OILs cycle count indicates that Oil is rolling over, BUT The XLE and many Energy stocks looked pretty good. Then OIL popped as shown. I discussed some set ups in Energy stocks in case we are setting up for a break out.
WTIC– Then OIL rolled over Wednesday. This leaves us without real clarity. Yes, some energy stocks were still green or holding up with Oils sell off ( see NOG, VOC, XCO, REN, and a few others that were green), this is not healthy looking yet.
And BCEI – I cant find news on it, but traders were heading for the exits on this one. It didnt gap down, so if you bought it, your stop likely saved you some bigger losses. It broke from a wedge, and a stop below the wedge or recent lows would be around $1.80. After breaking from the wedge, there is no need holding on if that break out is invalidated.
I ended up buying LGCY for its wedge break out, and now I need to watch that closely and use a stop below the wedge break out too.
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GOLD, SILVER, and MINERS
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GOLD – Precious Metals have been in an uptrend since January and surprises keep coming to the upside. These are accompanied by consolidations, and that is normal bullish behavior. If Gold dips to the blue line, that is $1317.
Reminder: Yesterdays Gold chart pointed out that a drop to back test the break out is acceptable. That is around $1300.
GDX – Tuesdays chart also showed that back test possibility for the Miners, seen here.
GDX – GDX went higher on Wednesday. We are on day 14 and I would expect a higher high before dipping into a dcl. Forget cycles, forget E.W., forget everything and just look at this past 6 months. That is a beautiful uptrend.
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Lesson: This isn’t really a ‘lesson’, it is more of just me sharing how I have learned to view and trade this following set up
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When Miners get extended, they remain bullish but they can also just go sideways and consolidate before the next leg up too. It is not really possible to tell what path some of these will take from here, but lets discuss probability. I used this chart of TRX to point out that –
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1. Yes, it looks just like a bull flag. It has the probability of it breaking out higher.
2. The one in MAY looked like a bull flag too, but turned into a bullish sideways consolidation for 2 months.
3. So I personally buy the flag with the ‘probability’ that it could break out higher, and the possibility that this late in the game, we may also need to consolidate and if it just goes sideways, I will sell and enter another trade.
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THAT SAID, LETS LOOK AT MINERS. MINERS ARE STILL IN BUY THE DIPS MODE.
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HMY – This has a LONG consolidation and I recommended buying this at $3.60 ( especially if you see a break out).
HMY – Now $4.60 and we see another valid break out. It was a buy again, and still can run a lot higher. So it is a buy or add to that 1st position. When I buy a valid set up, and it plays out correctly, I add at the next confirmation. The BEST game in town 🙂
PPP – About to break out from $2.08 at the end of June.
PPP – It broke out and now has formed a bull flag of its own. It should break higher (probability) because it is not extended like some other miners.
TGD – I bought TGD and mentioned it here. I pointed out this pattern as a possible big move that it could produce. Probability for the upside , especially if it breaks out .
2 days ago TGD did a big gap fill and bounced off of the 20sma. I hope those owning it held on.
TGD – Because this is a nice set up. Cup & handle ( slightly odd handle) Probability of breaking higher sooner or later.
This was my older chart, I’m using it to point out that TGD has resistance when it gets to the $0.60 area.
NGD – This may be read to break out, or it broke out and just back tested. It is a buy right here and should eventually continue higher. This is a Le chiffre special 🙂
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EGO – June 22 EGO was a low risk buy at $4.30. If you bought there, you can add now. If you didn’t, I think it is a buy (next Chart) .
EGO – EGO is now at almost $5.00 and that formed a ‘w’ pattern with a handle. I think that EGO will eventually run to $6 and then $7.50 – for you trend buying traders. ) Yes, I wrote EXK on the chart, it is EGO).
SO Precious Metals have had both the MAD POPS that we love to own, and the slow and steady climbers that pay off in the long run. 1,2,or 3 day DIPS can be buying opportunities. My personal opinion is that this has been the best game in town. If you bought a core and held it from the Winter or spring as mentioned here, you are probably pretty happy with that choice. As for Energy? It will have its day again. Commodities are up to bat again, and doing well too. In fact, GSI, CLD, WRN, CLF, VALE, SID, CENX, BOOM, TMST, FCX, X, ZEUS, etc, etc, are bullish and on the run. For now I want to continue to sing Kumbaya by the fire in an area that is burning hot, and choose to focus primarily on that here. The weekend report will discuss a wider range of the markets. Happy trading and thanks for being here at Chartfreak.
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~ALEX
EDIT: GOLD FUTURES ARE DOWN $15 as I awoke this morning. I still like and added to AUMN and GSS. I like KGC, GSS, XRA, THM, BAA, LODE, etc . I’m happy with everything except for GPL. It really got bogged down with that offering so far. While you are at it, look at charts of GORO to see what a break out from a cup can do. You may see this on TGD, HMY, or EGO. 
I posted SILVER 2 times in the comments, but I think that something is wrong with DISQUS, so I’m posting it here.
Great theme! Kumbaya Alex! Hahaha!
The Miners really have been acting correctly over the past few months.
Anyone holding a core over that time period is probably singing something jubilant 🙂
thank u prince of the forest…..
wth..my gif disappeared…
Thank God!
LOL.. mann i TRY not to laugh at u .. but damn.. i just did a full on LOL …
2funny
#HB
My chart of Silver disappeared twice… : (
they could be censoring this site
If that were the case, I’d have to blame…… MARIA
..
So I’m guessing that there is supposed to be a gif here?
i see it … ha ha ha
bet it disappears if i refresh
Yes, I refreshed and it is not there
grrrr …. talk to the hand
yup
!
sureeeee it did ……..
ps. i would like to hear your thoughts on Robs ? re: Etfs…if u wouldnt mind… i have often wondered that myself… not for years.. but lets say holding for a complete wave 3.. is my idea. so weeks or months.. woo hoo
and since a “3” is on deck … im even more interested.. could make a year or decade .. lol. for sure … ;o)
*u can leave out all the bromance stuff …
Tonto Tonto Tonto
SLV 1/18 Calls
GDX 1/18 Calls
wellll… LR … u would need to teach me…
*promise i will be a good student and sit in front seat w/ my hands neatly folded on my desk annnd use my 2 ears for listening .. and no talking.
LOL…. HA! [just teasing]
hahahahah….
Can I come to class too?
yessssss!! we could have it in the mountains… 😀 while daddy Ken takes a WELLL deserved break and takes off for the slopes we could chillax at the lodge like the snow bunnies we are – have some koolaid and recap our day’s lesson …
Awesome! Let’s go in the hot tub and look for characters in the wood ceiling there!
[You must not be business traveling anymore….your mischief self is back!
Well…….Ya never know. 🙂
It is just another “option” vs an ETF. They are considered option leaps. I have a bunch of SLV 1/18 Calls for this coming 3rd. wave……highly recomended if you in the belief that PM’s are going to be in an extended 3rd. wave.
ok.. yes daddy… since i am in that camp… i best add to my ToDoList …
im pretty psyched to watch & learn …
*and Profit naturally ..
(insert my coy gif here)
Hey Ken, help me out here a bit, if you don’t mind. What is the advantage with the Leap Calls? Jan ’18 is pretty far out there. How high was your time premium? Why not just a quarterly or next quarterly for Sep or Dec ’16/Jan ’17. I’m assuming you wouldn’t hold through a Wave 2 which will certainly happen before we get to ’18 so you wouldn’t hold that long (or maybe I’m way off). Just trying to learn a new technique.
As far as 3rd wave you reference below – of which degree? If we are back in the bull phase of the supercycle (which I think that we are) then we are still in Primary 1. Likely Major 3 of Primary 1, eh? Just trying to follow. I’ll also sit nicely and listen, just like Maria!
Hi Cason,
I use Option Leaps for long term holds in a sector I believe is starting a Long term Trend such as Silver (SLV) and Gold Stocks (GDX or GDXJ) now. I use leaps because the violtility goes way down so then I can weather the DCL’s that will occur with out doubt. If I am correct and still think the Trend is my friend I will roll over those Call Leaps with around 6 month before expiring into another 12 months Call Option.
If you really want to get aggressive I also have also purchased Futures with the same mind set but out only 3 to 6 months before expiration and rolling them over as well……futures may keep ya up at night though so they are Not for everyone.
I hope that helps to a certain degree. 🙂
One of my best trades ever was HL Calls purchased in 2006 and selling in late 2008 using this technic …….
I listened in Ken …thanks for the info. [was this school? Maria, were you here and behaving like a good student?] Probably too scary for me but I will keep this info.
Nawwww.. that was just him reading his syllabus to the class … i was sitting, hands folded front & center but the little men jumped ship… I however remained calm, and gazed intently into professor kendawgs big blue eyes… oops.. what i meant to say was .. I listened intently and I will study study study like a good summa cum laude….
#BadSchoolGirl #YouTube
Dang … That must have been my assistant I have hazel eyes. 😉
aww shucks.. they look blue thru my rose colored glasses.. 😉
Lol
Good night Tonto……
nities greenEyes
C’Mon guys, I’m trying to write a report, and I keep throwing up in my mouth. get a room 🙂
L .. O … L
REFRESH
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SILVER IS VERY EXTENDED, but if it is going to stay that way, it may tag the 10 sma or stay in this bull flag. I forgot to put this chart in the report. A normal pull back would bring silver all the way down to back test the recent break out near $18. I think that that would only happen at a dcl.
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…Silver
Good morning, Alex –
Do you mind checking this post as I refreshed and the Silver chart didn’t appear
I think something is wrong with DISQUS – I posted it 2x and it shows up & then disappeared. I’ll add it to the report at the end.
I’ve found a way to remove the aggravating GIFs but unfortunately it removes the valuable charts as well. Sorry!
#HB
u wish ….
look at that.. i just tried to upload a H O T T new HB and… pooof .. i disappeared…
#UrLoss
who says they are aggravating?
#I know what’s best for everyone
Alex,
GPL is obviously lagging.. Anything on the chart that can be seen as bullish? i.e large triangle? I think their quarterly is due any day now? Plus with this pullback in metals…. could this drop all the way to the 200 dma now that it’s under the 50 dma? thx
The chart is longer term bullish, short term neutral.
They just had a fatality at one of their Mines this week, but the stock is only down 1 cent pre-market (So far).
I know that some people don’t like to sell for a loss and if they entered recently, they may be in a losing position. My thinking is always to take the loss, use it as a tax write off, and put the one to use in another stock that is gaining. OR, just go to cash if it breaks the recent lows and If GPL starts to show strength later, I can always get back in later.
GPL is just hanging at the lows right now.
thx Alex…..will probably hold for this intermediate cycle in the medals and a bit in my core.
GORO & SAND, Might want to keep an eye on this pair of $5 stocks as they are both bumping the weekly 200 sma.GORO is a nickel away while SAND is just 30 cents short ( as of close ). Also worth watching is this mornings weaker US $. If it should strengthen, watch for further metals price weakness.
GPL has had indigestion with this financing for 7 days now. It looks like SAND took about 9 days to bottom and 15 days total to start back up. I’m in another one – RRX that took about 16 days to bottom. This morning there are tiny little trades going on with it and the price is holding. The question i have to ask myself before I take a loss is “would I buy it at this price”
I had GPL and sold right after the drop. The question I asked myself is; “do I want to own a stock that goes nowhere for two weeks while the rest of the sector moves higher?” I Sold and bought EXK. I’ve since made money instead of losing even more. I sold GPL at $1.55 I believe, its now at $1.48 ish? I bought EXK which has made me money since then. IF you like GPL at this price, you can probably buy it at this price in two weeks. My 2 cents, not always good advice….
yep Bill – the first loss is the best – there are the quick and there are the dead – and I saw this acting badly before it happened and did nothing. grrrrrrr
I’ve changed the ticker to GDL. Great Disappointment Silver. So much more appropriate.
Thanks so much, Alex, for posting the chart on EGO – I’ve been wanting to add to that one. I started a core position in May and since then it’s up “only” 11% (my how we get spoiled)
When I have a stock “only up 11%” in a month or two, I’m sad….then I put on CNBC and see them praising fund managers that are up 9-12% for the year and I laugh
…verrrry…
just yesterday .. i was charting and projected 50+ % gain.. but it would take till Oct.. i LITERALLY said outloud .. .. “pfff .. forget that crap” … :-O talk about SPOILED…
My chart of SILVER has been added to the end of the report. Please scroll up.
Thanks for posting that – if Silver breaks below the 19.83 level, to reckon it would take a week to drop to a DCL?
EW People?
I posted this on OIL before. Hit play to get to current time. Anyone have a good idea where ABC ends? Im not sure if there are rules on A=C etc. #HB
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/v2UcvrEq-USOIL/
A classic EW target area Biill is the prior 4th wave low and especially if that lines up with any Fib levels. I’m seeing your 5 as a possible 3 though and the current correction a possible abcde or double zig-zag. But whatever type of correction it is I have possible tgt levels around 43.4 and 41.5 IF the very recent low around 44.5 doesn’t hold and we remain below the falling 10 day ema which has capped the last two minor rally attempts. Also have a possible low date pencilled in as mid next week.
Okay, so around $43.
That would be a nice looking target area IMO Bill assuming we do break the prior minor low around 44.25. It’s hodling so far but I have my falling 10 day ema around 46.5 and that ema has capped the last two rally attempts. But potentially looking for one more modest break lower while price remains below that falling 10 day ema.
NOT a bad open with GOLD down $20. I added to NAK .
LGCY is green,….wierd 🙂
Alex,
In your opinion are miner’s cycles now running before or after PM’s?
Very close. I see an ICL in both at the end of MAY.
Then I see a dcl in Miners after about 17 days, and that is why I labelled GOLDs dcl on that Brexit mammoth candle.
I feel that Miners are pretty clear cycle-wise, GOLD and that Brexit candle cloud up that chart. 1 LONG first daily? Or is this the second? I wrestle with that a biy, but Miners clearly look to have had a 17 day first daily cycle, and I have seen 14 day cycles in past bull markets
EITHER WAY – A long first daily out of the ICL, or 2 shorter daily cycles…the intermediate cycles peak should be ahead of us.
Doesn’t NRP look like a 3x ETF? I look on a 2 or 3 yr and feel like I should own some, but it had a reverse split & low volume, so I never got on board.
Beautiful rounding bottom! Headed much higher
agree, sure looks that way ( They did do a reverse split, I’ll buy it and they’ll do a public offering at $12- lol)
Silver tagged $20 and GOLD tagged $1320 ( near that 10sma shown in the chart in the report).
I’d like to see them reverse higher into the close and run higher Friday.
SO far many Miners aren’t down very much for Gold being down $20.
I’ll be leaving for a few hrs around 12 Eastern time.
Likely no chance to get gold down to $1300 for the next buy? Still not getting much for dips to buy. I definitely have skin in the game at this point and everything is in the green except for Great Dissapointment Silver. Wrestling with adding now or 2nd half once we get DCL (more like IF!!) too many options!!
I’d like this very much also 🙂
ask and we shall receive huh? My account was seriously red when I wrote that, now it has turned green.
Now I want that to continue : )
If I was going to buy energy (and I’m not), I’d own WPX and CWEI, recent performance whipping everybody else. I’m not messing with penny stocks just trying to stave off bankrupcy for 1 more week.
Alex, when you get a chance can you see what you think of NCQ chart? I have some in the red and have been holding on thinking it’s going to pop up – ? Thanks!
NCQ has a really good ROUNDING base forming right now – just like March & Aprils.
I like it
Thanks for the feedback! 🙂
NCQ is reach to launch indeed. Got in at .52
excellent… im seeing the 3rd of the 3rd for that one …. where GSS is now…
TGD also in the batter’s box…
TGD is my diamond in the making :)-
I bailed out of MGH for a profit after 1.5 mo under water.
😀
<<<<<>>>>>
Geurt. • 20 hours ago
ALEX… how looks XBI?
Do you think it will go correct more? (54.65)
Thanks a lot Alex!!!
I do think that it will correct more
Guert, I see Alex’s response below but I bought back into LABU this morning just above $31 from my $33.50 sale last week. Thought we’d get back to pre-market so a little disappointed today with NAZ up pretty good. Short term trade, may get out with 1 solid pop. Below $30, I’m out.
Thanks a lot Cason for your friendly response.
Thus 30 and below you will sell it?
Let me know Cason, have a good evening.
Right. But b/c this is a tight trade for me and that’s based on my lowered risk appetite and how much drawdown I was willing to accept. 20 is $1.50 below on XBI an 100 day is another $1 below that. Both offer solid support but I didnt leg in (which I usually do on LABU) bc this was designed as a short termer for me. If not in, I’d wait to buy.
VIX hitting 12sh again…….ya all remember what happened last time when that occured ?
Yes!
GSS & TGD look like BUYS to me ( or adds, I won both lower)
Thanks – there were so many to look at this morning; the shorter list helps me out. Gets overwhelming sometimes when you can’t do this all day long. 🙂
If you own GPL – It may have just put the next low in with todays reversal ( I still cant post charts),
if you look at the lows of Early MAY, Mid May, Late May, Mid June, Late June … todays reversal in that same area ( $1.40ish).
Sure hope so! But ALL of my other miners are up! 🙂 Some a decent amount, too.
TGD is about to break out in my opinion ( GSS too).
TGD has the same amount of volume now that it had all day yesterday. It has what it takes to push above a prior high.
GSS looking good!
I’m being lame, meant to get it 2 days ago and then was too lazy to enter order this morning. I’m sitting on cash so no reason not to grab, eh Carl?
Now it’s up 20%. Thus is why it’s tough to trade these in a bull market.
Carl, so mad at my broker! I put in a market order when I saw these comments, but they wouldn’t take I’m in an OTC penny stock, was forced to do a limit and then it didn’t fill. Grrr…. Then it blasted off (more). Was only about .86-.87 when I entered. Try again tomorrow.
I got TGD so if Timmons goes I’m already positioned
6 month daily looks ready to break out, a 3 yr weekly says “Possible ginat inverse H&S”.
I so wish that I could post charts.
Alex, SLV is overbought, is it worth hedging here for a drop or still to early in the cycle (I have AGQ). Still. Not. Selling. 🙂
Thats a tough call real time, because I think things in Precious metals just pulled back and look ready to go higher.
GOLD just dropped from $1375 to $1320, near the 10sma. With surprises being to the upside, and buyers jumping in all the time, I think we may get another push higher before we get a dip much lower in a 3rd daily cycle and then a 4th into an ICL.
I’m not hedging, but I’m also not in a leveraged etf ( Tho these Miners act like 3x etfs : )
I’ll have to say to do it if it helps you to sleep at night, you wont have big losses on a drop, you’ll have muted gains on a push higher. You can always temporarily remove it if we push higher
Good advice, thank you. It’s not a particularly large position. Want to maximize profits, but I’ll be able to sleep with a hedge. 🙂 Silver may just consolidate the overbought conditions off just as we have seen gold do. And I had the same read on Gold’s drop, miners still looking strong. So, I’m going to hold off for now but if we identify the 3rd or 4th cycle, I’ll very likely do then!
I have GOLD still down about $15 and many Miners turning green mid day. That happened the other day with Gold down $20.
It’s like ‘buyers’ can no longer resist buying the dips, even when Gold is down $20.
Gold down $20 used to mean GDX down 8% , nugt down 23% 🙂
I’m not seeing a lot of green in miners? Some but minimal.
I want bigger dips. 3% isn’t a great sale yet!
I bet we see NUGT at $139.50. That’s when I’ll go back in full.
Yeah, if we get GDX back to 27.5 I’ll go in heavy.
There goes GSS- When I first posted, it was only up a couple of cents, now I see it up 16% already.
Boom – nice break out.
My 4 yr wkly chart says that this could run to $1.50 rather quickly. BIG %-Gainer
NAK pretty sweet too…
Alex, DO you think that NAK has the potential to get back to 2011 highs, or is that just one of my fantasies? Easy, Maria. Easy.:)
I believe that if the BULL has returned and these companies can become or remain profitable, they can reach & surpass highs going into a parabola.
NAK went from $2 to $22 in 2.5 yrs, why cant it do it again 🙂
Agree, thats why I mentioned that I added at the open 🙂
Nice Alex!
https://archive.org/details/PeanutsTeacherVoice
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sog … play it again sam?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/23PIEoS7/
**NOT trading advice… extreme spec play for me…
hey M .. count me in.
bought it the other evening when i gave you my SOG alert 🙂
regarding NGD (indeed a fav of mine, even though I am disappointed in its performance, compared to CDE, AG, IAG, EXK, SA…. pretty much all of them, ahahaha)
A pop over $5 would give it momentum.
Earnings are on 7/28.
GPL is such a sick puppy. Down 10% on it. Don’t want to ave down anymore. Just being patient.
I know, I’ve thought about dumping mine and just taking the loss….if I did then everyone holding would be fine because I’m sure it would go up! What to do what to do…..holding for now.
I’m holding as selling makes no sense at this point and you know it will be up 20% tomorrow if I sell now.
I am too. Silver is strong, the other silver miners are strong. If you look at the fundamentals it is not great, but it is not going broke and that is the same with a whole bunch of these miners. So I am going to hold through this. It might take a few weeks, but it’s not my last dollar that I have to trade. I hate being down on it. I can’t remember the last time a stock blew through my stop, but I will know in the future to take the next loss as soon as possible. I read the financials for GSS and couldn’t get out of it fast enough and look where it is today. So we have turkeys flying in a windstorm, and this one is a better turkey than a lot of them, so I’m holding my nose for now.
By the way, this financing showed up ahead of time in the 10Q (as a $10M hit) so maybe it would behoove us all to read these before plunging.
did u just say hoove.. ye who ranWithTheBulls?
*smirk
hahahaha very funny girl.
I did the same with GSS….got out when I could once I read the fundamentals…..and was thinking the same thing today…..”why don’t I still have GSS instead of GPL?”…..holding like the rest of you….:)
I sold mine at the opening bell, down 3% at that point. Added 2/3 of the proceeds to Timmons Gold (TGD but TMM.to on the TSX).
Alex,[anyone else?] how does TGB look to you? [copper]
Very good
Thanks. In one account it is FINALLY green…I was ready to bale out in relief. I will hold and watch.
PLG is getting scary close to my stop. Any thoughts?
I wish I knew – I have some in the red and have been looking for any news but can’t find any…..? Have been holding but geez…..not sure…..I think long term it might look ok but…….?
Just got some NAK. nice retracement. potential for much more. any EW chart Maria?
That was one fugly candle in CWEI today. Oh My!
CDE is absolute on a rampage!! I really should have bought and held that 1 last fall. SA was a full $2 of 52-week high at morning low, may be interesting again soon?
All, favorite miner pick over $5 that’s not crazy overbought? I have some of these smaller guys, need one a little more mature as well. Thoughts?