Friday – A Closer Look
It is the last trading day of the week, and a few things have already changed form Thursdays report. Lets take a closer look at a few charts…
Nothing really changed in the general markets.
.
WTIC – This really does look to be losing it’s ability to make any head way. Big volume selling if this chart is accurate. I would not be buying energy stocks until this clears the 10sma with conviction and gves us an overhead trend line break. It cannot recapture $50 or the 50 sma.
Oil rolling over so early in a daily cycle almost seems worth shorting with an inverse ETF. Oil daily cycles can last well over 30 days!
.
GOLD SILVER & MINERS
.
GOLD – It hasn’t even dropped to the 10sma yet. I still like the set up so far, I’d call this day 9 of a 2nd daily cycle. This could be a 1/2 cycle low (Dip).
SILVER – Silver got extended and way overbought. I think that it could back test the break out, set a trend line higher, or just bull flag.
.
I mentioned in the comments section that I had a few charts of SIL (Silver miners) that showed toppy action, but they were on my other computer. This would just be temporary toppiness. These were my charts from July 5th.
.
SIL – Spinning top and on the trend line. I’m pointing out another time where it continued to bounce higher.
SIL – I also mentioned that I couldn’t tell which count fit best.
Either way, it would go higher after a dip.
.
SO I came home today and opened my account and it looked a bit ugly. Mostly GPL, which I have been accumulating. It dropped lower than the offer, with additional selling and colossal volume , but I am going to hold and see if it holds up. No lows were taken out, and I do think it will recover in time. They did take a perfect looking chart in many ways and wreck it. The hope is that it will do as SAND did. SAND started to recovered daily shortly after its public offering.
.
SO what about other Miners? Are we having a huge sell off? I dont think so. I’ve drawn 2 charts for GDX, but I favor the 1st one.
.
GDX #1– This shows a short 1st daily cycle, and now on Day 10 dipping into a possible 1/2 cycle low. Maybe a gap fill at the 10sma?
GDX #2– This has one long 1st daily cycle and we are dipping into a DCL. on day 29, it wouldn’t take long to find the dcl.
.
Both scenarios have us early in Golds Intermediate Cycle, which means that it is too early to be a top. I decided to look at other miners and see if they look healthy. Sometimes on a down day, we look at our account and lose perspective.
EXK – 6 % drop, but for perspective, price is still higher than it was just Tuesday. I do expect it to drop a bit further though, since the 10sma is further down. 6 days up, 3 down?
NEM is a big part of the GDX – Not bad here.
GG- Also a big part of the GDX. A gap fill for that 1/2 cycle low is possible.
DRD – Remained strong, as did PZG, MGH, and a few others, so it doesn’t look like a major sell off across the board is upon us.
GORO – Break out and possibly back test & gap fill too. Much higher than it was 2 days ago .
AUMN sold off, but the selling looks like it may be drying up. Inverse H&S possibly forming (A big one) .
XRA – I still own a good amount of XRA, so this hurt today, but look at it. It is also higher than it was on Tuesday (so far).
.
You can see that the miners do not look bad overall, but Thursday was a spoiler for the week in some ways. Oil is starting to really look like it needs time before moving higher. Things were looking really good over the past few days with Miners, but we got some selling Thursday and especially with GPL, the week got less exciting. In the long term, it’s just another blip on the chart for GPL. This bull can be difficult to ride real time, but I still see GPL much higher in the future if this drop is a reflection of the drop in 2011.
.
.
Have a great Friday and Weekend!
.
Alex, hope your day went well. Came in to comment on Thurs report and lo and behold a fresh newsletter was waiting on CF! Yeah, I’m sold on miners. I’m all sorts of good with little selloff, means they cost less. I’ve gotten out of a few positions so I have plenty of cash to add to my smaller miner positions. I may hedge silver or even say trade DUST IF the set up is right. But I’m not selling. Bring on the Jobs Report!
Good evening Alex! I feel your pain with GPL. I’m in the same boat. Been accumulating it from $1.4 and have a $1.57 ave. They really ruin my day with this one. Didn’t sell a share though. $4-5 target is exciting. We shall see in a few months.
So, here is my account today…
Here is my portfolio today…
You’re just encouraging you know who!
SOG?? 😉
Unfortunately SOG is the one in the arm lock!!! With Mr. Brexit getting after it on his behind!!
I’m leaving for the day, I just wanted to say….if Gold sells down today, scroll up in this report and look at the chart of GOLD.
See the LINE inside of the ribbon? That is the 10sma on Gold ( Like GOLD $1330).
Just remember that GOLD is fine to the $1330 , 10sma area, so if it sells on a jobs report, you can watch that.
Oil looks to have now failed, I dont know what that portrays for the markets, since they ran together. If the markets sell off and Gold moves higher on Jobs…..RIDE ‘EM BABY! 🙂
Have a good Friday!
Thx Alex! Enjoy your day…holding tight.
Check out JUNO pre-market, LABU open doesn’t look to be so good…
LABU still on target for $42. SP500 just started a new cycle, LABU will go up with it.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/LABU/JMjFivVm-LABU/
Again, such a well done …and tempting… chart! But, that sector scares me. I have enough insanity now that I have succumbed to the lure of AUMN!
LABU scares you and AUMN doesn’t? Hmm. BUY low, that bio tech sector is low and beaten down. IF the low is in, I think it is, then it blasts off. I do have AUMN, and am holding.
LOL! I admitted I was terrified that I bought AUMN the other day! I finished painting my 3D mural [took 4 months!] so I am free again to trade more…I shocked myself with that impulsive move after Alex casually mentioned it in one sentence..not even a chart!!!
Gold is down $22 to $1337 due to strong June job report 287,000 jobs created. This may drag metals & miners. Any clue how to approach the market?
Hi Siva, for now I am watching with a skeptical eye. That report seems skewed– a lot of those numbers are returning Verizon workers. Also logic tells me if those jobs numbers are real, then why did the unemployment rate rise?
I also think those jobs numbers are temp. low paying summer jobs and internships that will evaporate come Sept– (every college student in the nation now wants an “internship” which is basically free labor with minimal stipend)
I don’t buy that report – especially in light of an upcoming election.
I’m taking the day off- and I think most of the big market players do so too on these summer Friday’s. (Going to an O’s game tonight at Camden Yards)
The weekly candles that Alex interprets over the weekend may be telling. It will be interesting to see if there is any major buying or selling at the end of the day in the major indices he watches.
Great place to see a game! I love that whole water front area. Enjoy the day.
Thanks– should be fun. It’s a 50th anniversary of the World Series game against the Angels – and the are playing Anaheim tonight and wearing 1966 replica uniforms. Jim Palmer, Brooks Robinson, Eddie Fisher, Dick Hall etc will be there. fireworks… If only they served that craft beer you like 🙂
Was that the year they had four 20 game winners? I can’t remember all of them Jim Palmer, Mike Quellar, Dave McNally, ?
Actually it’s a bit before my time, but I know the names and love the game and am a fan for nostalgia. I am amazed when anyone can remember stats — it’s all I can do to keep track of the score (thank god for the scoreboard)! And I have been known to ask questions that belie my attention at very critical moments: “do you want blueberry muffins or blueberry pancakes for breakfast?” – score tied: runner on third: two outs:two strikes.
I remember trivia stuff. The Orioles were the last team to have four 20 game winners. The Oakland As were the last team to have three 20 game winners. Usless info like that. I should have been reading trading books in high school. Damn
You were still ahead of most of the crowd -as I recall at that age most boys spend their spare time looking at other “figures” in magazines #keepingitcleanMaria!
Oh, believe me those “other” figures drove me crazy. Young men can’t stop starring. Love me some curves.
..
Love it!
Enjoy GF!! :o)
Hi Crystal
Thanks for sharing your insights. I too bit doubt the actual numbers within one month 38k to 287k. Anyway the market and oil showing little life. CWEI is up 12% in the pre-market.
Figures:( I got stopped out
Have a great day. I agree about the jobs report. Summer jobs. The specific areas that improved seem to agree. Also, I have watched them seem very manipulated for years. And, what about people out of the workforce? Once people give up and stop looking for work, they are not included anymore in that stat! I think true unemployment numbers are much higher.
Isn’t it BS? Adjusted private payrolls for May now -6K and then +285K (or something close) this month? Really? Hard to trust.
Look at that hit Silver took overnight! Down to the 200sma on the hourly chart. Turning higher from there sharply. Almost a 50% retrace. That could be it! I’m holding everything.
Hold like a MOFO!
YES SIR DAZ- Thx for saying that while I was away. We are too early in the intermediate cycle to worry ( ANd the close proved that).
Good call real time!
That’s right. What did I sell this morning on Jobs report negative gold reaction? Nothing!!
I was away- I sold nothing too, and very glad.
The MIners Charts are sweet to me
Wo, look at that beautiful tag of the 200sma and rebound on the 1 hour chart of silver overnight! Fingers crossed. Refresh for chart
Nice chart! I always hunt in the morning to see what metals did overnight…often unsuccessfully. Thanks for this.
Hi Ho SILVER Away!
Dude, it went up $1 from day’s lows.
looking goooood! but the market can’t quite figure out what to do with the crude prices – up / down / up / down
PPY.TO – check out this oil and gas giraffe that I just did not have the heart to toss overboard when the others went.
I think aluminum is taking a turn now 🙂
: ) Nice call Crystal- I agree
And let’s see if CLF can hold $6…!
Its been steady riser for me
Me too…Love my CLF..it is in my core now.
Me too. Not selling this one.
Yes it can!!
Stopped out of CLF during BREXIT selloff scare. Worst. Move. Ever. Oh…!!!
On the upside GPL has stopped taking a beating (so far). On the downside…it’s still not feeling any love (and below the 50dma)! Worst scenario to be in for buy/sell decision. 🙁
And didnt break the lows.
I think it’ll recover, but bummer it didnt get a good buy on the bid today
like miners lead gold, could the E&P be leading oil?. Not one on my list is bothered by this oil price and some of the high-beta are up 4% or 5% or more
Rob.. .is that u nibbling at .. err umm CopperMining? 😉
looks to be remounting that weekly 50ma… hmmmm
HELLO ROB, that was a good chart. are ya buyin?
I know right? Thought he was just busting my chops …. butt ;0)
If the underlying metal makes a move higher, CopperMining might make a splash.
Ahhh….true true…. a sight to behold. particularly if buyers keep nibbling… could make for one powerful wave that keeps extending & morphing…..gosh.. it could last for days & days… 😉
I’ll drink a pineapple juice to that!
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bd06c4a2ea5214e9b8984a6359f3b3e552f06fea2f34801df2052666c9eaf308.png
Thinking about it. See note to maria about CopperMining. [Insert awkward throat clearing sound here].. 🙂
Am not buying..maybe I sell half of my GPL and add some CopperMining. 🙂
So it looks like my thoughts on OIL are holding up. 12345 now ABC lower. I think we are on the last leg down, how low do these usually go? I took a guess that A=C
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/v2UcvrEq-USOIL/
I remain bearish on oil until we get to oversold conditions at some point. Negative fundamentals are lining up with productions ramping and utilization lowering in Asia and rigs coming back online rapidly (per Baker-Hughes).
yay! … MGH
nice….
MGH is doing the dance! Been holding for 2 mo, under water. Happy feet! Now GPL get your groove on!
I sold my GPL just now, doesn’t seem to want to move higher. I immediately bought a replacement. In my case I bought TRX and XRA. Id rather watch these move higher than wait for GPL.
i let go of it for now too…
bought some DUST again into the close.. had sold mine at open, but looks like it was about to make a short term move higher ..
I don’t get it. How did miners move up today? Just doesnt make sense. Don’t get me wrong, my miners made me $$$ but I was quite frankly shocked. Fundamentally after the Jobs # I just do not understand. Clearly this is a STRONG, STRONG move. I’m a bit annoyed b/c I want to ADD!!
Seriously, just checked charts again, Gold was up $30 off reaction low and Silver $1 from low to close. WOW!!!
It’s my only red miner. I’m actually pretty deep in the green on everyone else, maybe not deep in XRA as I got late, but GPL only laggard for me right now.
When you wrote that TRX was near $1,03 I think….NICE GRAB 🙂
I almost picked up up at $1.00. Should, coulda, would. GSS and TRX on Monday’s radar.
Thing is at the moment, are we still in the first DC or second for gold? I’d like to see a little push higher then a quick drop next week. If that happens then the the presumed second DC would be 🙂
Alex said (above) we are either on day 10 or day 29. Being that the cycles are typically 24-28 days, we are either still early at day 10 and maybe getting a 1/2 cycle low here, or very late on day 29 and any move lower will be short.
Yes, I think though i’m leaning to the 29 day option personally, maybe a push to 1380 (ish) then a fast drop. If this IS the second then the first was very short, almost too short. IMO obviously. Either way i suppose we are golden if we are able to ride the bumps.I suppose if you believe in a new bull then this is all noise of course.
(Ramble)
I’ve been burnt a couple of times over the last few years,Been to zero twice now ( Thanks NUGT, yes it does go to zero if you hold long enough!) .Luckily a small % of my net worth that i can replace. Hopefully i can take that experience and not blow up my account this time.I don’t expect to get rich, but hopefully outperform other traditional investments and retire in a few years. I’m A total novice at this stuff but i’m finding Alex’s stuff (and the comments on here) Very insightful. Thank you all.
Everyday’s a school day!
Good luck all.
Daz Im right with you. I first discovered NUGT during the last bull in gold. Man like crack I got more and more into it. Then we had the bear, lost a ton. Now the bull is back and I’ve gotten away from it but made plenty in energy and miners. Thanks to Alex’s ability to pick winners. Hopefully we can all make enough to retire soon.
Sick thing was i made a ton on NUGT like yourself then flipped everything into DUST in 2012,got lucky and time almost the exact top. Made a bit then bottled it because everyone i listened to at the time proclaimed a new “C” wave advance. If i would have held dust for 6 months i would have been a millionaire a few times over. Instead I held NUGT for over a year…………….sad face. THAT was a lesson.
i felt bad enough just holding gold bullion thru that…
NUGT mustve been a nightmare!
Barf! Haunts me even now. How to let go of a loser, I might right a book one day….haha
looking at this action now though……..that looks mighty like a half cycle low now. Down day, no swing high(I think) then a big drop and reversal……. Good strength here i think…
I was thinking 1/2 cycle low in this report, I came home Friday and sweet reveals
You have no idea….
were you following Rambus & his ‘kamikaze portfolio’ trading strategy ?
Nope, but sounds mighty like my style at the time!
Like Bill’s story but I discovered NUGT in the first Bear Market Rally without knowing yet that we had a 4 year bear ahead of us. Go ahead and guess how that went.
Just dont discover DUST right now 🙂
Holy crap, no kidding!!
My wish for you too : )
Wait – Arent you retired?? How are you in here so much? Night shift?
You know I’m not! Waiting for you to make me a bucket load of $$$$.
Does anyone have an opinion on SID?
Don’t like it based on Harmonics only.
What is that?
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SID/qAGWGxYE-SID/
Go to my chart above and hit the play button. It will take you to where we are now which is about a 50% climb from the base. Typically thats what you get from a harmonic pattern. SID is also getting overbought. Im also getting a sell signal (see the red SE) which is based on Stochastics. The TSI looks good and RSI can stay overbought for a long time. I just wouldn’t buy here. I like PGLC here, steady. Many others look good THM, TRX, XRA all finding support bouncing off the 10sma. Google Bat Harmonic pattern for more on this Harmonics.
thanks
I like that chart and site. I hit play and those levels it shows, are those fibs?
Ah-ha! I now know a smattering about the Bat Harmonic Pattern. Thanks. Too much math for the artist in me! Trouble is, I can see it, like I can see the patterns in Elliot Waves AFTER they play out illustrated on a chart….but can’t picture it in advance. I don’t “see” the pattern emerging. Anyway..I will check out your suggestions above as possibles to redeploy into…already have THM. Thanks again. Have a good weekend! If your account is anything like mine, it was a very good week!
Nancy my artist friend… re: EW pattern identification… actually, it is precisely this imagining-dreaming-puzzle like creative challenge that lit a fire in my right brain, creative side & beckons me…every day … not just charts either..btw .. these waves play out in everyday life … think fads.. etc. all human behavior- social psychology dynamics in play.
.. i am left equally awed and humbled daily.
LifeIsGood 😉
I haven’t looked at it, but I’m 100% on X this year (same sector) and CLF is red hot. Maybe those offer better shot? Alex has been bullish on steel and showed a wave chart last week, while bullish now could finish wave 5 shortly. I might not initiate new position here.
Sold GPL for a loss moved into (more)TGD.
GPL will have its day, but I think its the right move. I sold GPL this am and bought XRA. GPL went down and XRA is up. It works
Yep, looks like i might go sideways for a while longer(or maybe not). Time to deploy elsewhere. Can’t win them all
Bill & DAz, I still own my GPL, but I like the way you are viewing your trading and slipping out of the lagger ( Knowing that it may take a while to recover) and grabbing something that could move sooner.
I do that often. Good trades.
I have some XRA – think it is a good add next week? I only have a 1/2 position. Or start GSS? I sold energy and LABU this week. Have a pretty solid amount of cash to deploy when time is right!!
GPL is killing me. I have multiple accounts and as luck would have it, have GPL in my lower funded ‘impatient’ account but in my long-term IRA I have EXK, BTG, AUY, and I’m killing it. I just can’t touch the money. 🙁
ren up 18% today
DNR on a weekly has a bullish harami
OAS and SN kind of falling wedge on daily – might break out next week
I hope so…still red on both and I am hoping to escape!
I’ve just about exited all energy but I got stuck in OAS as it fell too precipitously for me to exit. Remeber $10 last week? Sell! Oops…
OAS sux right now. Stoopid OAS, always been my friend and now it lets me down. CWEI rages today, OAS just leaves me stuck.
OAS possibly did a shake out at the 200sma so far. Dropped and put in a reversal candle.
Dont be surprised if…..
Ok, thanks Alex. I’ll keep an open mind and update my charts Monday. Thanks. She really underperformed the rest of the sector today. Badly.
I still dont love OIL , so I’m not thinking of buying it ( or others) until I see real signs of strength.
If I owned it though, there was a sign of hope today 🙂
Watchit – tons of bankruptcies in the space. These guys have 2.2 billion in debt and not a very healthy current ratio. Just sayin’sall
Yeah, that’s why I stopped messing around with the lower price ones. The entry stocks we traded in CF in early 2015? Almost everyone is bankrupt or de-listed. So, I stopped trading the penny energy stocks, $5 and up or no dice. Risk is just too high.
I HATE to say it, still not loving oil, but in 2 days I get a BUY on LGCY , unless something changes.
THAT means I M-I-G-H-T buy it Monday, because I always front run my signals if I can.
“..Make it provvvve itself…. ”
hehe
My shake out of CWEI was classic – to the penny just below $26 and then back up $2 – so I’m feeling like this drop was a manipulated shake-out of stops and grab of cheap shares. I am curious to see what you see on the weekly on the strong movers.
Interesting observations on the weekly Ray… OAS, SN, DNR are favorites. Do you see the same on BBG and AR?
Alex, what about SDRL? I know there is elevated bankruptcy risk in all these high debt / high beta oil stocks including LGCY. As the market improves, creditors can be motivated to become predators so the risk is very real – lots of them have already gone down and more of them really do need to so the underlying assets can perform again.
I have October $3.50 calls on SDRL to cut the risk, but just wondering if you have it on your radar. You are MUCH better at picking stocks than I am, so appreciate your thoughts.
ps I sent you an O&G report by email.
IPI looks to be setting up for a strong upward move, what is your view Alex?
I sure hope so! I’m stuck in that one.
Alex, If you get a chance could you take a stab at trying to clarify the Daily Cycle count ? You seem to lean towards today being day #11 of the 2nd. cycle while our friend Polly seems to think it is day #29 of the 1st.. I sold 25% ( all from profits God bless ya ) Thursday in front of the jobs number and hedged via DUST to play the event on the safe side. Needless to say the DUST was quickly sold leaving me with a sizable cash balance that id like to put back to work when prudent .
Considering gold’s quick and convincing turn around on Friday I’m thinking NUGT for just a few days using Polly’s count and doing business as usual with yours.
Thanx Alex, Your the best!
Crawdaddy
Hi Crawdaddy —working on the report now : )
I didnt know his count, but My count remains different from Poly again.
🙂 It’ll be in the report