July 3- Flying On Target

The past few weeks have seen huge gains %-wise in the Chartfreak Gold & Silver Miner picks. I’ve been reading that other letters have avoided the sector due to the C.O.T.   What a shame, we discussed the C.O.T. here too, but didn’t accept it as utterly bearish.  I’ll discuss that again this week.  Lets start with a look at a couple of the recent explosive moves in Miners for example.

.

TRX– I bought and have been discussing the bullishness in TRX for weeks.  I will discuss it further later in the report, since it has broken out with a bullish surge higher.

XRA – This also burst higher after a 2+ month consolidation of prior gains.

 

AUMN, VGZ, MUX, TGD, and many others mentioned in the reports over the past few weeks are surging higher. AUMN gained 50+ %last week alone.

After a market review, I’ll discuss what I think will be the next opportunities in this sector, and what to look for in Gold, Silver , and Miners going forward.

DJIA, SPX, RUT, etc  –  I mentioned the 3 white soldiers formation in Fridays report.  A bullish reversal pattern.

 

SPX WKLY –  Friday ended the week with a bullish looking reversal on the weekly chart. This is looking like it wants to break out to new highs ( May 2015 was the last peak).

 

I dont know exactly what this means at this point, but I look at a few different things at turning points, and the $BPSPX is seriously not responding to the recent surge higher the way it did in February when we had the other 3 white soldier pattern.  It has me a bit cautious.  This was Thursday,  you should look it up & see what happened Friday  🙂

BKX – Not so bullish looking at this point.

 

USD – I have been bearish the USD for over a year now and things have played out very much like I expected.  After BREXIT,  the USD strengthened  ( and so did Gold).  So I am not concerned for Gold, but I’m interested in watching how this plays out for the $USD. It is short term bullish, but is it longer term bullish too?

 

So on the USD weekly chart, this can still run higher and eventually roll over continuing its path back lower. It has put in an ICL in May and is going to have strength for a bit, but likely will continue the sell off again.

 

TLT WKLY – With a weekly gap higher, there is a chance that this could gap lower and leave a topping candle, but this looks like a valid Cup & Handle Break  out to me longer term.

 

WTIC – My June 30th chart,

 

WTIC  July 1st – Oil looks set to go higher.

WTIC WKLY – Nice weekly reversal regaining the 10MA. This looks bullish

WTIC WKLY – Another Bullish view still shows about $60 this summer. That consolidation shook up some energy stocks , so we’ll see how they follow through too.

 

Quite a few Oil/ Energy stocks still look promising.

.

BTE DAILY – Breaking out higher, this could be very bullish.

BTE WKLY – Weekly reversal on the 10MA- I’ve pointed out this stock & this base for months.

NATGAS – Natgas has been strong. I expected a small pullback by now, but it just keeps moving higher.

CRB WKLY – The CRB is bullish too and looks like it is going higher. This is another reason why I think Oil will go higher from here. 

 

IPI – I sold my IPI, but I said that it remains bullish and I may re-enter again soon. This base is putting in higher lows since May.

.

GOLD, SILVER, & MINERS

.

In June when I was saying to buy miners because we had an ICL in place, many said that the COT was calling for a crash.  I used this COT chart of 2009 to show that after each ICL coming out of the 2008 lows, the Smart Money short positions just kept growing, so we should expect that now,  but it is not a sell signal.

 

This was my chart of the COT,  and I actually drew in the bars on the right to show what I would expect.

 

This is our current COT.  Pretty good copy of what I thought we’d see, huh? So that mini dip was the ICL and this Intermediate cycle will peak higher later.

.

GOLD WKLY – 5 weeks green since the ICL.  It is similar to the first run where many waited for the dip and missed the move. There WERE intra-day pullbacks, but then it just popped higher because surprises were to the upside in this break from the base.

GOLD WEEKLY– Let me compare the move out of the 2008s ICL with our 2015-2016 run.  The first run was pretty much straight up, then a sideways consolidation for weeks, and the second run was a tad wavy, but eventually spiked at the top. I still say we’ll easily run to $1400+, but could tag resistance at $1500+.  Read the chart.

 

GOLD DAILY – In 2009 I said that it looked wavy, because it was not without dips on the daily chart. This run will have dips along the way too.  If we just had an early DCL,  we are only on day 6 od possible 26-30 day cycle.

GOLD DAILY – 1 reason why I think Gold put in an early DCL, is that GDX seems to too.

Silver from June 30th.  A target near $19.80, but you know how Silver can move.  FAST!

 

Friday July 1st – Yes it moved fast.

 

EDIT: SILVER is running higher Monday Morning, most of these charts were captured and drawn up on Sunday.

SILVER WKLY –  We’ve been waiting for this. Silver has a strong Base in place. Silver is at almost 2 yr highs, that is a big deal. We could get a back test this week, but we dont have to.

GDX  -I think we had a dcl for the low of the last shoulder. Inverse H&S break out. Target $31ish. They can extend.

GDX WKLY – BULLISH consolidation and break out. First target $30, but if it breaks higher, this targets overhead resistance near $40!

.

So again, we have been finding Miners with explosive set ups that can be a once in a lifetime opportunity. Huge bases entering a bull market have and will reward riders that trade them or buy & hold them (Core positions). Many here have actually written and mentioned that they are experiencing great gains in their trades and core positions from January/ February. I love to hear that.  I think that we have transitioned back into a bull market, and I learned some of my best lessons trading the Precious Metals bull from 2000 to 2008, and 2009 – 2012. This should be very profitable.

A bull market in Miners is where serious money can be made, and it is just starting really.  The ride will not always be easy, especially with sideways consolidations and the pull backs along the way, as you have seen.   For those that either trade using the ‘news’ or maybe read 10 – 20 different bullish & bearish articles a week, I’m seeing that it has been a harder ride. Some read what so & so says about the C.O.T. and they experience doubt and fear during normal corrections and and ICL.  That caused many to avoid taking a good trade set up, because so &so warned of a huge pullback coming. Others either become afraid to buy the dips, or afraid to hold a good set up based on ‘news’, only to enter after the run higher is well along and due for a pull back. 

For that reason, I want to review some successful trades and the longer term outlooks, to see what we can learn from them. 

.

Review Lessons

.

Why did I love TRX?

TRX –  I pointed out that I loved this base.  This can completely recover and even make new highs ( over time, like years) if the Bull has returned. Looking back, this will be buying the lows.

TRX –  And I still love this set up, this Pop sure doesn’t hurt.

.

XRA –  I was pointing out this set up.  PLEASE NOTICE that this set up looks like GPL currently.

GPL– Similar pattern / consolidation as XRA Above before it popped.

Then The POP on the weekly chart).  Could GPL or EXK do this? I think so. 

Then the POP looks extended, but a bull flag consolidation may help prepare the way for another bump higher  ( like MUX).

 

June 28th – This is a great base. I was comparing XRA and TRX bases in a prior report. This is why I want to encourage a possible ‘buy & hold’ core strategy. Some cannot stomach the ride, but if TRX forms the CUP and is at $5 in the future, you’ll be glad that you did. With GOLD at $1500- these Miners bottom line will improve quarter over quarter. Gold at $3000 an these Juniors will be huge gainers!

Still looks like the TRX BASE.  Lots of potential in a bull market

ABX –  Buy & Hold. This is how the base plays out over time. It looks easy to ride, but there were pullbacks that scared some. THIS is why I am serious about some buy & hold positions as these juniors come out of their bases.  ( See also VGZ & MUX for recent examples).

PPP – This was mentioned because 2 readers pointed out the base set up.  Read the blue writing.

PPP–  And there it was . Congrats to those that got in early, and I believe there will still be more upside. This could just keep going, or it could dip down and back test the break out. Either way,  it is a bullish break out and lately these just keep going higher. 

 

So lets look at some potential future gainers. Do you see what I am pointing out in the weekly charts?  I have had way more than 1 person say to me,  “It pulled back and missed my buy by 2 cents!”  Then BOOM, its it’s 20% in 1 day.  MAybe at this point it is best to start a small position with a focus on the weekly, and maybe those less inclined to just take a position will take a partial and set your low buy order with the rest.  If it takes off upside,  your happy,  if it pulls back and you buy,  you’re happy. 

KGC WKLY– Nice consolidation. I captured this Friday before the close.

KGC DAILY – This is set up to go now. Inverse H&S consolidation.

KGC –  Zoom in. Do you want to miss the next leg up by a penny or two? 

GPL WKLY –  I’m sure that this will take off when it is done consolidating. Many say that GPL is weak and lagging as Silver broke out.  People are bored to death with it, but is it really ‘lagging’?  No, it is consolidating the last huge run from near 25 cents to $2.25. MASSIVE RUN.

GSS – On my watchlist.  Looks ready to go on the daily, the BASE is 3 yrs long.

.

AUMN – I mentioned AUMN June 20th using this chart.  It was steadily climbing and acting correctly. It was a buy on the dips to the 10sma

AUMN WKLY  Friday – BOOM. That is a 50% gain and it actually doesn’t look done. In fact, when I look at the weekly chart…

AUMN WKLY – AHHHHHHHH,  what can I say? She is the ‘widow-maker’ in bear markets, quite often the ‘money maker’ in the bull.

These were in Fridays morning report.

HMY popped Friday, that’s a break out. This is a buy.

 

EXK –  This is similar to GPL.

.

PLEASE NOTICE:

.

Doesn’t this consolidation look like EXK, GPL, HMY, etc above?  It was XRA breaking out before the explosion. Keep your eyes on those still inside their consolidation.

That’s your weekend report, and it basically covers the current markets and what I called ‘The Best Game In Town’ in a report a while ago, Miners.  That was short term and long term. I hope those with open markets today outside the U.S. are having a great day grading!! For those in the U.S. still enjoying the holiday, rest up. It may look easy in the reports, but it is a lot of work in real time. See you on Tuesday!  🙂

.

~ALEX