June 20 Trade Ideas

Please read the weekend report, this is part 2. I wanted to post a few trade ideas…

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I’ll start with the sell off this morning in Gold. As mentioned in the weekend report, I am bullish Energy and Precious metals. Gold is down to $1283 as I write and it looks like a huge smack down, so I wanted to put in into perspective. I am still Bullish on Gold & Miners too.

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GOLD WEEKLY – I would like to see $1275.20 hold, simply because it would put a weekly swing in place, but that doesn’t mean anything really. Gold could drop 50% and then turn higher again without any real damage.  Currently the pull back is not quite 38.2% . So if Gold continues to sell off, use this chart to see where it is in this first leg higher.

THAT SAID, I have said that I like BTG and SAND among other Miners, so IF things look reasonable in this selling, I may add to my position. So as a review, I’ll attach those charts from June 15 or you can re-read the weekend report.

LET ME SAY THIS PLEASE, I have done well as a stock picker , but it is not fool proof. When I said that I was buying 3 weeks ago, I chose Miners that had solid bases and good set ups, so yes, I got VGZ and MUX, and kept adding as they had follow through. That was great, but I also bought GSS, TGD, GPL, EXK, and EGO.  They didn’t all explode, but because we had just entered an ICL, they started moving higher.  The point is that I like the set ups on SAND and BTG a lot, and I’ve mentioned that they look very much like MUX and VGZ in certain ways, but there are no guarantees. I also liked  EXK, EGO, and GSS, but they were less explosive.   My GSS position went from 55 cents to 65 cents , so it wasnt the explosive burst that I expected. I just wanted to mention that, because some thought that I only bought VGZ and MUX and nailed it perfectly. 

Lets look at ENERGY.  You read the reports last week and know what I have been expecting, and you read the weekend report. This is what we see this morning so far. The general markets look pretty good here and Oil is moving higher.

I have a few Energy stocks that look set up to move higher. With OIL likely putting in a daily cycle low here, these should be fairly safe, outside of any company specific surprises. I am only showing ones that have held up rather well through all of Oils sell offs. If they didn’t really sell off  with Oil selling off, why would they sell off with Oil putting in a low?

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CWEI –  I love this set up.  I’m sure you remember this one. Roughly $5 to $21.  Then $15to $28, this is a favorite of mine. It will likely go back to $70 in the future ( no guarantees, but this moves rather well).  It did a back test of the recent break out. I like the set up, but this is not for those that cannot take movement. Look at the last 5 days. $23 to $25 intra day.

OAS – Another favorite, because it doesn’t sell off a lot. OAS has a long consolidation along the 200sma here. If OIL runs, I would expect it to break out.

DNR –  On support

NOG – Moving along the support of the 200sma. This is a good low risk set up in my opinion.

WLL –  It’s hard to see, but this broke from a triangle, and back tested it . It has NOT regained the 200sma, but could be bought here or after it breaks above the 200sma, with a stop below recent lows.

ERF – This is another energy stock that we have traded. Now that you can look back over the past few months you see a great run. $1.80 to $6.75.  This could double in time, $12 is the 2015 highs.  Notice that when it drops , it does NOT tag the 50sma. I would consider that a sign of strength. It gets bought before it completes a normal drop.

Amazingly, some of the Energy stocks that we were buying down at the February lows have doubled and tripled easily. You can see that buying those lows in a buy & hold situation would have paid off well in the ones listed.  As time goes on, the strong will survive and the debt burdened juniors will either die off or play catch up later after they fix their problems. Higher oil prices will help. 

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So these are just some trade ideas to go along with your weekend report. I will find more as time goes on. I only wanted to share a few, to show what I am looking at.  Support at the 50 or 200sma.  Did they pull back in a crash like manner, or slow and steady? That way you can look at your own list and decide if they look healthy or not.

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You could also look at charts of  AREX, PBR, HAL, MRO, CHK, WPX, BTE, BCEI, ORIG, SM, SN, and so on from past report. 

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Or look here for a small list- click here >>>  ENERGY STOCKS

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TO AVOID VOLATILITY- SOME MAY WANT TO WAIT FOR THE BREXIT VOTE TO SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT. THAT IS A PERSONAL CHOICE.

Have a great Monday , thanks for being here at Chartfreak

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~ALEX