June 8 – Energy
We’ve been discussing Oil and Energy among other things recently, and I wanted to mention what I am noticing in this sector lately.
WTIC – Over a month ago, I had a target of $51.60. I felt that Oil may struggle at the $50 area and pull back before moving higher. A drop into a Daily Cycle Low would be the red path shown. The Green path is possible too.
We do see that struggle at the $50 area, but here is something to consider…
I mentioned that Oil could just go sideways, possibly to the 50sma, and then move higher, rather than dip down into a cycle low (DCL) that is very noticeable. I came home yesterday and reviewed some charts and noticed that some of the Energy Picks that I have mentioned in the recent past, have started to move higher again. This COULD possibly indicate that OIL itself will just move higher.
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You know the story, Miners often start moving before the metals, Energy stocks move before Oil. It could be Smart Money, so lets take a look at what I am seeing. I will Post the charts that I posted in past reports, and then look at recent movement.
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Most here will remember how much I pounded the table on the wkly base of BTE . I loved that chart.
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BTE – Late April. I bought this above $3 and held it for a long time, but I did sell it recently,thinking Oil was due for a small pullback.
BTE – May 11th I was again advertising this as a buy on this pullback. I hope some of you here bought and held, I did not hold it. My lack of patience was costly.
BTE – Monday and Tuesday BTE started to break out of that base. I may look for a way to enter this, hopefully with a pull back. Go back to the first chart of that weekly base. This could really move.
HAL – I mentioned HAL in Feb and May. This chart was acting correctly. How has it played out?
HAL – It formed a cup & handle from May, and it also broke out this week.
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Again, I am pointing out that OIL has not broken out this week, but I am seeing quite a few Oil / Energy stocks breaking out. SMART MONEY?
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EMES – This was another long Base that I was trading and pointing out here. A $50 stock down at $ 2.50, it had run to $5.00.
EMES under resistance at $2.50, then above and bouncing off of support. Still a $5 stock.
EMES – And this week breaking out higher, now at $6.80.
CWEI – Who can forget this one? May 11, after running from $6 to $21, it was a buy at $15.
It immediately ran toward $30. I saw the 200sma overhead, so I mentioned that a partial sale to lock in profits is prudent. Where is it now?
CWEI – Interestingly, it has jumped this week from $25 to $32. It may pause at the 200, or it may just break out, but the point is that OIL is lingering at $50 area and some energy stocks are setting up and running ahead of oil. This was a $6 stock in March, I love this stocks base and this will be one that we look back on and realize that we could have ridden it from $6 to $70 in months. 🙂
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There are several more, but you get the point. Energy stocks are showing signs of life as Oil remains around $50. Now I will show a few charts that also look to be bullish. I would say that these look ready to move higher.
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LNG – Breaking above the 50sma. Many Energy stocks are breaking above the 200sma ( See charts above), so this may or may not pause at the 200sma. Even as a quick trade, $35 to $40 ( 200sma) is a great trade.
SN – I have pointed out this stock a few times over the past couple of months. Each time it has proven to be a good pick. A strong run in early March, a run in April, it looks ready to run again here.
SDRL –
MRO- Watchlist: This could just keep running, but it looks like it may back test the 200sma, and that could be a good entry.
BCEI – This may be considered a higher risk company. Please due your own due diligence on these companies and decide if you want to be invested in them, based on their Earnings, Debt, etc. We’ve had discussions about some of the junior Energy companies.
As a trader, I look at the chart and see potential. It looks ready to move higher and that tiny move over the past 2 days was $2.30 to $3.20. Yes, 40% in 2 days.
And I saved LGCY for last 🙂 If you have been with Charfreak for a while, then you know that LGCY was a super winner a couple of times.
Recently I pointed out this squeeze play going on and mentioned that it is being pinched between the 200 and 50sma.
LGCY – Many energy stocks have been popping as shown in all of the charts in this report above. Couldn’t LGCY be next? It may tag the 50sma and could be bought there. It could be bought if it breaks out above the 200sma ( it did have a false break out abive the 200sma in May). It could be bought here with a astop, but if it continues to consolidate, it can be boring. WATCHLIST.
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For the experienced Traders here:You can also take a look at other energy stocks like RES, JONE, SM, SWN, CLNE, DQ, ERF, LPI, OAS, etc. You will either see examples of the recent activity mentioned here, and also see some other set ups.
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I mentioned OAS here 2 days ago with this chart.
DQ – Consolidation and likely ready to go.
We also have mentioned another form of Energy – Uranium. Crazy moves there! Absolutely stunning. As mentioned yesterday, DNN could be next. Miners have popped and paused, I still like those set ups too, so there’s a lot to be watching for. I just got in late last night and need to really settle in and look in all areas of the markets. I will be busy most of today during market hours. Many things look Bullish at this point, as long as you remember that occasional pull backs are healthy and necessary. I want to release this quickly, so please excuse any typos and word jumbles, I wont have time to proof read before releasing it. Enjoy your Wednesday, there has been a lot of good trading out there!
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~ALEX
Welcome back to the real world 🙂 or 🙁 Looks like another exciting day ahead of us 🙂 Alex do you have a stop for IPI. Thanx!
It sure does. When I started writing this report, OIL was not taking off like it is now. Check out GEVO later today. Wow.
IPI – Mine is below the 50sma
On the one year or 3 month? Figuring out the stop on the one year for me is like measuring inches from 12 ft away 🙂
The five year chart on Gevo is a bigger WOW!
True, but only if it returns to highs. That was split adjusted 1:15 – that means it was really about a $20 Stock at the highs 🙂
I always check for splits in the past to see if it is real or not
By the way Crystal – When I got in the other day and looked at URRE, then read through the comments to see if anyone took that trade with me, I laughed pretty hard at your sequence of comments too 🙂
gotta say, URRE action looks pretty much identical to TPLM a couple of months back… wonder if its destined for a lower low also?
It is a pretty weak company if I recall my research.
And it’s a good thing that our comments aren’t accompanied by Skype feed… I was doing “the wave” on my couch
Hi-yo silver away! (OK I’ve got that out of my system now). Thx for all the great work Alex…took your advice on BTE and as a good Canuck supported the Alberta economy…now it’s payback time.
Thats great Deshy!
I made decent money on it, but somehow it still hurts to see that last 3 days move, since I sold for an Oil pullback.
I looked at that base and mentioned many times ( even just to myself) that if it breaks from the base, it can really get going. I may not have missed it if I wasn’t on vacation. It was on my watchlist, but I wasnt watching that list until I got home last night 🙂
Anyway- Very glad for you, I’ll look for an entry, and I bought Silver miners or URRE or something else with my BTE money – so what do I have to cry about – lol.
hi alex, hey I own mro at present, I am down about $1,100 .00 on mro, me thinks sell[what price, have any idea] and buy back at lower price[any idea], not trying to put you on spot, but I am terrible day trader. tia richie
Hi Richie,
I personally dont think I would sell today…
I had MRO chart above in my report, and it is back near the 2016 highs, so if you are down, you must own it from 2015?
My thinking is that it is going higher today, and a price target that I have is $16 and maybe higher. It may or may not pull back to test the 200sma, so dont sell it on that thought that I put in the report. It can also go sideways to the 200sma later.
Personally, I would hold it a bit longer and ask me again in a few days to remind me, but I think it could go to $16 soon.
I hope that helps.
thanks alex, that does help, since I posted that I am now down only $700.00 . anyways I did buy last year, bought some at something like $18.aera, then later bought some at $12 aera. I don,t want to tie up too much of your time, but I am terrible daytrader, I seem to make my best money buy buying a stock and holding for a a[anywhere from 1 week to 6-12 months], but now have been in and out more often with profits, thanks to you and your charting, lately. do you daytrade? and if you do, what is your secrets[charts], thanks for all your help. I owe you. richie
I’m just happy to hear that you have been able to make money with some of your recent trades here. Little by little it adds up, as long as we dont go in too heavy on a trade that goes wrong. Using stops helps.
I dont qualify as a “Day Trader” according to the guidelines that a taxpayer must follow to qualify to pay taxes with day trader status, but I trade enough that I hold some positions for weeks and even months, while I free up other money often, taking quicker gains from good chart set ups that pop.
It’s a lot of learning , and that comes from good and bad experience unfortunately. But you will get better the more you make good trades and learn how to get in & out of them.
I dont know if that answer was helpful, but it is how I learned ( That is… I learned the hard way ) 🙂
strange, no one is mentioning silver is up 3.75 % – or is this only here in Europe?
We’re all spoiled Ray- If it’s not up over $1.00 , I’m not even happy 🙂
J/Kidding – Deshy gave it a Hi-Yo Silver Away below . I bought some silver stocks 2 weeks ago and last week, so I am pretty happy 🙂
I bought some GPL yesterday. I have several silver stocks from Feb when I started here….so I am happy too! Where are you in Europe?
Belgium- close to the Dutch border
Oh!…you are where there is really good chocolate! I’m in Vero Beach, Florida.
closest I ever been to Vero Beach was Cocoa Beach
Ah…mention of chocolate again! LOL I must be hungry! Cocoa Beach is just a bit north of me.
I did, but it was early so still on yesterday’s report. I often comment before the report is released but using prior day’s.
anybody on board trade bio,s, check out arna, I am long, but down huge amount, but something going on , may be ready to takeoff, buy at own risk, don,t bitchto me , if lose money, aalso donot thank me if make money, right now low risk loss. richie
For what it’s worth, Credit Suisse upgraded AK steel to outperform and raised the price target to $7.00
Anyone have ideas on why ETI (Entrée Gold) has not popped?
Hi Edward,
ETG canada , EGI U.S. – right?
I dont see any news.
Yes, Alex, I’m sorry, EGI. Thank you!
I’m still in CWEI, OAS, WG which have been doing well. Little bored with LGCY but it looks good, like a controlled pullback.
Almost entered gold miners yesterday and wish I did.
Yeah, It’s getting tough now, because we now have 2 gap opens within 4 days in Miners.
I have been looking back and see gaps in Aprils run that never filled, so I was OK with the Gap last Friday, but I dont like 2 so close together. Possibly pull back and at least fill todays on many
What did you say about LGCY? : )
Not sure if it’ll hold, because that 200sma is still overhead, but I think it popped 7% right after you wrote that.
ASM, AAU, AG, CDE, SSRI, etc all making new 2016 highs : ) : )
PES – Nothing wrong with that chart at all (Not a buy here, just a great looking 6 month chart).
EMES still looking good.
HBM slowly moving higher threatening a break out ( Also has 2 gaps – I hate that).
Alex, welcome back. What about CLF? Is it lighten up time yet?
If you have a large position and want to bank some, I always find that that helps on the pull backs, but if it breaks to new highs and keeps going, you may not like that. And again, it depends on if you bought it at $2 and want to sell it next year at $20… or just trade it because those pull backs are too much to enjoy. Both are fine.
I dont see anything wrong with CLF or many of the commodity stocks here. CLF had a break away gap at $4 and is up over $5- so you have good gains, but I would ride some and raise a stop under it. Sell partials if it continues higher.
Thanks both you and Pete…I have an order in for a partial sell. May just do it now before work to be sure I capture some profit.
Thanks!! Yeah, my cost basis is near $3. Even though I want to hold longer and higher, would be silly to give up if we get another large correction.
Nancy, I would be cautious here. Not only in CLF, but commodity stocks in general. CLF is filling the gap from early May, but it is very o/bought in the shorter tframes. Same goes for AKS. I’m seeing something that I don’t like. Doesn’t mean it has to happen now, it could take time. But if we close the week near highs for all these stocks, macd histogram (weekly) will be diverging negatively. Thats *IF* we close at/near highs. SPY is showing the same divergence. To me, that’s something to take notice of. Being in the weekly, it could still take weeks to play out, but it is definately something to monitor.
DO NOT listen to me, but my gut tells me this can run to $5.50. JMO 🙂
I took some profits but have more to continue the ride.
So I could very well be wrong here, but, I believe when a stock crosses a
$5 threshold, institutional buyers step in.
Given the recent good news, I would not be surprised if we find out that some have done just that. If so, the price will most likely continue up and not fall back below $5..
Also VALE just now crossed $5 — lets see if the buying steps up 🙂 and so did AKS (great volume today)
And here comes HBM 🙂
Dont leave my little buddy out of the $5 party, 11cents to go
SSSHHH, HBM is trying to break that $5 mark, 4 cents to go now .
Last two times it did, wasn’t pretty
GDX has broken out to new 2016 highs. Many times a break out becomes a false break out ( Especially with 2 gaps under it).
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Refresh
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I think GDX could continue lower and fill the Gap from today. It may even drift along and put a handle on the cup if things remain bullish.
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You could use the April pattern of breaking to a new high and dropping for a few days as an example.
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Thanks for this heads up and thoughts about GDX. Yep, that reminder about false breakouts always great, and now with that little mini-lesson probability raised with two gaps below.
Nooooo!!! I finally buy in and now they’ll correct. I started yesterday and then bought break out today. Drat. That’s probably why we’ll sell down!
If this is an ICL then gold will set a higher high, would expect 1354-1400 range!
NADL (any relation to SDRL?) is up
26% today:)
Another newsletter service (on the same platform as this one) just posted bullish charts on BTE and RIG. I think the bigger question is whether Oil drops into a DCL now that it’s hit $51. It might allow stocks like these to work off being overbought, even if they don’t drop much.
Agree, I’ve been out of energy for a couple of weeks, anticipating a drop.
Wow, I went to lunch and also saw NADL, and ULBI, GBR, ARP, CJES,
WRN, AKS, SHLO, TMST, X, HBM,
Is it kosher to say “Hallelujah, thank you “C-JES!”? (I been riding that one out 🙂
I cant figure this one out Crystal, I even looked up IS in case it was a ticker.
Sincerely,
–Stumped
Only the first word of my comment posted the first time through … Sorry you spent time looking up the “IS” ticker (lol) “Refresh”
I refreshed, I see it all now. I had no idea what IS was. I even thought of A-Minus when I said the ‘A’ team of miners, etc. Tech error, not just me 🙂
I hate to dampen the party, but CJES is now approaching the overhead resistance of 50sm too 🙁
Maybe it can just break through, but it has been a 3 week run already.
As mentioned in a report 2 months ago – BOOM & JOY seem to do great in the commodity runs.
Both hitting new 2016 highs
C’Mon LGCY-
That’s the 200sma you are kissing overhead…..P-U-S-H!
Not acting with the rest of the sector? Makes you wonder. Like HK last run?
I love the way it is acting 🙂
I wish I could see what you see? Looks to be in a penant pattern!, crossing the 10sma, RSI moving higher from oversold, but MACD diverging downward? Volume up slightly, am I missing something?
No – you have it. That was pretty good coverage.
I wrote about it in the report too, pushing against the 200 sma, and a squeeze play between the 50 & 200 sma coming to an apex with the stochastic finally getting oversold.
Also, in a consolidation, the MACD gets re-set down to the zero line, I dont view it as divergent, we are not back at the highs .
Bill, last couple of 50/200 squeeze plays Alex recommended really worked out well. Heck, I may have just convinced myself to buy LGCY. My miner cash still burning a hole in my pocket.
Bought LGCY and BCEI here. Both sitting at or slightly above ma support. BCEI exploded higher this am and closed the gap. What about AKS??? Looks like everyone has to absolutely own it today!!! Sold my remaining position this am when up 13%, but had to it. Too o/bought in shorter frame. And had made a very good $ on it. Hope a lot here had or have it still.. 🙂
Replaced AKS with SID. Both popped huge today, but the SID chart is not as o/bought, and it looks like it has a lot more room to run if it gets a full head of steam.
I was watching WRN in its consolidation last week.
Also NCQ ( And TGB) , but trying to stay in the higher priced commodities at this point.
Big Al, look at the candle in SID today, and look at the candle back a few weeks ago in AKS…. eerily similar!!
Yes, I like SID here. I think I had it in a report a week ago. Break out from a wedge ( I think)
I almost bought it this morning, but didn’t want to chase already up 12%. Turns out that would have been ok!
I bought WRN yesterday on your advice! Thx CF!! That’s a nice consolidation…any thoughts on target?? I’m thinking around the $1 seems to be resistance.
Sweet Deshy,
On a wkly chart $0.90 minimum should work. More possible
Same reason I sold X from entry a few weeks ago.
I still have a bad taste in my mouth from the BCEI screwup a few weeks ago. Gonna take a lot of oil to wash that one out.
anybody buying here at the close? if so, what?
Like Peter, I bought BCEI here.. With a stop. I think it’s a low risk entry
Forgot to mention CLD also Crystal.
Bought it earlier in the day for the same reason as the others. So my moves today were: kissed AKS bye-bye, as well as USLV, which was a short term thing. Added LGCY, BCEI, CLD, and SID. Still sitting on AUMN, EXK, FCX, VALE, CENX, and DDD. Ilike what LABU is doing, but won’t move until we get some confirmation as to where it wants to go. Positive in LABU: Accumulation/distribution line is breaking out to new highs. Price *should* follow. So watching the hourly and daily for confirmation. Btw, the 3 energy plays could have a stop under the ma support.
I actually sold a little of the Miners that I bought a week ago, just to lock in profit. Sold all of my EGO, but not because I didnt like it, just taking gains..
LGCY & BCEI.
bought some X and EVEP earlier today
IPI
I tried a tiny position in URRE. Otherwise, I sold X. I want to keep it in general, but I was up too much not to take profits. Already have a limit in to buy if it gap fills.
So CLF doesn’t seem to know the meaning of “stop”
Maybe it’s trying to figure out the words, “Break out to new highs” first? 🙂
I’m hoping that GPL is only trying to figure out what “Gap fill and reverse higher” means
Anyone selling CLF yet? I sold 1 partial pretty early so it’s all or nothing here. I round-tripped this bad boy once. I’m not doing that again. Making the same money twice is SO much better!
PKD – possibly setting up
SDRL looks good also..could dip back a little, but it’s looking proper.
agree
CWEI – I sold 3/4 of mine on the touch of the 200ma and re-bought some back near the close. It might need a bit more time and volume before it gathers enough strength to go through 200ma decisively.
I like that chart. Meant to buy it weeks ago. Oops.
Mini head n’ shoulders on 30 Min gold chart. Could project 1252-1254. This is very short term only.
Nope, break out instead, good thing I ignored myself!