June 4 – Shocked
I believe there were a lot of shocked faces Friday after the release of the Jobs Report. The Dollar absolutely tanked and Gold surged higher. In fact, GDX was up over 11% by the close. Was it completely unexpected here at Chartfreak? The dramatic fashion that things occurred was a little surprising, but I have been focused on Miners again since last weekends report. I said in last weekends report that ” It is time to focus on Precious Metals again”. I mentioned that the “Timing” was due for a low and in each daily report I tried to point out more evidence that something was coming. Today, we will discuss this even further. Lets get right into the market review.
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SPX WKLY – Nothing has changed here. We dot our DCL and now we are waiting for a break to new highs or failure.
USD – I was expecting a dip in the USD, but THAT was some dip! Using Cycles, The dollar was extremely right translated so I would have expected a bounce to highs above that day 20 point, but we’ll have to see how this plays out. I’m not using Cycles as my main method of analysis these days anyway.
USD WKLY– I do expect the USD to remain weak, but again, this is a bit earlier than I pictured it to falter. The WKLY MACD failed to cross over so far. I will discuss something important about the USD relationship to Gold at this point, when I discuss Gold.
WTIC – Oils bullish rise remains in tact. We are due for a pullback into a Daily Cycle Low (DCL). If Oil remains strongly bullish, it can do as Gold did in March/ April and just go sideways before resuming the move higher.
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CRB – we still have a bullish climb out of the lows in the CRB too.
HBM – After a long consolidation, HBM is breaking out. Could it run from $4 to $6? Yes.
VALE – I called this a BUY on June 2 as it ran along the 200sma. I also mentioned SID, CLD, Steel andAluminum as pretty good set ups. etc.
VALE – Vale popped but stopped at the 50sma. If it pulls back from here, it would be a buy, but it might just keep running. I used #1 to show how it could pull back and gap filled, since it Popped and pulled back at the lows in February. I used #2 to show a POP & RUN.
AKS – AKS WEEKLY is a bullish set up.
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So we can see that many commodities look ready to move higher at this point too. I did recommend them last week, along with some Uraniums.
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— I am still away and I have decided to separate this main report from the GOLD report. I will consider this PART1 and release it now. This basically shows us that what we expected of the General markets ( SPX, NASDAQ, DJIA, IBB, etc) is playing out, but also that we are at a critical point with the SPX. Will it break out after the pause or ???.
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The CRB ( Commodities) remain Bullish long term. We have been in a consolidation, but the big picture remains bullish. We are investing in bullish areas. We caught the first leg up out of the lows in Miners, Commodities, and Energy, where many stocks have doubled, tripled, etc. *( See X, AKS, CENX, FCX, AA, and MINERS). WOW for the MINERS! Steel Stocks, Aluminum, Miners, etc have been consolidating for weeks and could be set for another run higher.
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Part 2 of this report will be released later. I will focus on Gold, the USD, Miners. I am still on vacation with my wife and another couple. This is the hardest working vacation I have ever been on, but it is worth it. 🙂 I have a lot to say in Part 2, I need to collect many charts. Please re-read my reports from Last weekend to Friday if you think that it will help – that should help you to understand what I have been seeing. This week I started buying Miners, but the “Gut feel” was too ‘intuitive’ or ‘instinctive’ to recommend that readers here join me. It wasn’t a LOW RISK trade, it was based on the ideas that I was sharing in this past weeks reports. I wanted to explain what I was seeing in each report, and explain why I was buying Miners. As of Friday, we do have sudden confirmation of activity in these areas. As for Gold & Miners, it is still in question as to whether we have an ICL ( Intermediate Cycle Low) or a DCL ( just a daily cycle low that will just roll over). I will discuss how we can trade these in Part 2. Then we can discuss options going forward.
THANKS ALEX for this short report, you teach us very well. Take also the time with your family and dear friends, that’s also very important. Hope to see coming Monday morning the other part 2 report. Have a great weekend. With kindly Greetings.
Gt.
ok this craziness is now over with me. I am ending it. IMHO the fed CANNOT NOW, NOR FOR YEARS TO COME, hike rates. It is trapped. Thus I am backing off the “there will be a pullback, because there always is/has been”. so how does my stategy change. good question. stay tuned.
My father had a bright sounding Martin from the 1960’s. Even back then it was of very good quality. He was in a band and someone fell on the neck of that guitar and it never sounded the same after trying to get it repaired. Martin – very nice.
hi do you have a service that tells me when you buy and sell? I just want to mirror you. thanks
Hi Todd,
I have wondered if I should offer that service, but the problem is that I Trade as a short term & long term trader.
It becomes difficult to post everything that I enter and exit real time.
hi chartfreak,
I would like your short term trades. Please consider.
Thanks
nice! Recently got a Casio PX-300 series digital piano – sounds great!
A Martin 12-string for $600 bucks????
If you look at the S&P weekly above, I’d tell you it still looks pretty healthy. But this DCL hasn’t been that strong (unlike the first which was much, much more than most anticipated). If you go down to daily there were really 2 big days back to back and that’s it, everything else was just digesting this move. So, if you waited for confirmation of the low by having a swing in place (instead catching the falling knife even though this one is pretty dull compared to others), you’ve treaded water at best. I’m salty I got stopped out Fri. Didn’t lose much, but am upset b/c I’m convinced I got the trade “right” but with the unforeseen need causing a quick downdraft in the morning I still lose even though the trade setup and execution were correct. Point? Idk, I’m rambling. But mostly that unless it really rockets to new highs quickly, it’s probably time to be a bit more cautious. Def not short. Just less long.
My feeling about the s&p is long-term sell but i have made my new decision about “fed ammo” and one of their relatively new weapons is their “double top secret zero transparent” “plunge protection team” which IMHO was put into place following the new 1983 s&p500 “futures” contract losing its virginity on oct 19-1987 when it was introduced to the reality of “locked limit down”. lol. i was pencil and graph paper on sheetrock charting. talk about “no more room” for a daily OHLC bar. thus the idea of the “log” scale. i srill prefer linear. interesting how 1987’s debacle is but a blip now.
I ask/tell myself now is this such a bad thing? the fed preventing the theoretical infinite panic result. IMHO just a few months ago this “weapon” was deployed by the fed around s&p500 1,800 level.
Thus i am wary of selling the s&p not knowing what the fed’s price levels are. But, hey, brave new world, right? can’t raise rates in the foreseeable future, but the fed can press their “global thermo-nuclear launch” button. targeting the s&p 500 shorts. and that says to me “be afraid. be very afraid.” lol. thus i am sticking primarily with gold for now but need to work out some things in the “when and how to best close out bets on an up move” dept.
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What kind of music are you into jscott??
everything and anything but i find myself taking a “new/re – discover / explore” approach. for example, last year i did this with a mega-famous musician that i was 5-10 years too young for during his prime. he being Bob Dylan. i focused heavily on his lyrics. now i know why beatle John was pissed. “zimmy” was the better. lol. “…proves to warn, that he not busy being born, is busy dying…”.
If you like guitar, look up Jess Lewis on youtube. SHE recorded some videos when she was 15!!! Posted on youtube, and the rest is history. She’s mostly a jazz guitarrist. I’m not heavily into jazz, but as a former guitar player, I can say that jazz is about the hardest musical style to play. Let me see if I can post one of her videos… Hope you enjoy that 12-string. Still can’t believe a Martin 12string is going for $600 bucks. I would’ve figured north of $2k, easy. https://youtu.be/aRTD12fl6Mo