Divisions

Thursday – 2 trading days left in the week. Again we have had another  great week of trading, but how long will this last?  Should I sell my positions?  Lets do a quick market review and then discuss positions.

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SPX – April 18 had the markets Bullishly moving higher.

SPX  April 20  – The SPX is almost at the November highs and remains bullishly aligned. This may be an area that gives resistance, or the shorts may pile in and be forced to cover if it breaks to new highs.

To gauge the health of this rally  ( NOT fundamentals, there are cracks in the fundamentals) , I have discussed the importance of BANKING for the markets, and I showed that after crashing down, they were improving a lot.  Are they still?

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BKX– Very bullish surge higher.  I also mentioned  JPM, MS, GS, BAC, etc as BUYS because of this sectors strength.  They are breaking out and moving higher too. 

IBB – The IBB remains inside of this area above it’s base shown on the April 18 chart. It is fine above the 50 sma. I believe that it is setting up to break higher.

 

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Lets get right to the area where most of our trading is OIL & COMMODITIES.

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WTIC – Yesterdays chart shown here mentioned possible resistance,  but this is a bullish set up ( and I wrote on the chart that this doesn’t look good for GARTMAN).

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If you are new here,  I have been calling for higher OIL prices, and showed that Dennis Gartman says that Oil will NOT trade above $44 during his lifetime.  I kind of have a pet peeve with these dramatic – Emotional statements from people who think that they know-it-all and it can never be any different than they say it is. How embarrassing.  We need to be humble and flexible or the markets can humble you quickly.

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Today is a sad day for Dennis  ,  but happy day for us!    WTIC is above $44 and resistance couldn’t even stop the advance.    Now OIL trades above the 50sma and the 200sma.That is still a resistance area that Oil is working through.

The CRB –  The CRB is approaching the down-sloping 200sma.  That has caused many commodities and energy stocks to run along underneath and go sideways, so I drew that in.  The CRB may do the same, but individual Commodities may still move higher, while extended ones pull back. 

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I mentioned a week or so ago that it looks like prices are going higher in your grocery store too. This is what has happened since then.

WEAT-

CORN

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GOLD –  If Gold breaks out above $1260, it is a bullish set up and looks like it wants to make a run higher.  It could do a false break out, but Gold is no longer overbought.

SILVER –   I think that Silver wants to reach it’s May highs. 

GDX –  GDX didnt reach the top of this channel yet , but That looks like a reversal candle and MANY MINERS also looked to have reversals. We may finally get a pullback and this may hint that GOLD want s to pull back further too.  At this point, this still looks strong, but a drop into a DCL would bring out the sellers.  SO FAR, EVERY PULL BACK HAS BEEN BOUGHT.

 

EXK – Many miners ended the day ( And likely their run) like this. 

 

 

SIDE POINT ON GOLD–  I have something set aside for the weekend report that will help us to gauge the coming drop in Gold better, if we get one : )

 

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NOW LETS DISCUSS OUR POSITIONS

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Almost all of the Energy and Commodity stocks ( And Miners too) have been running really strongly.   OIL is still early in its daily cycle-timing, so whether it goes sideways at resistance or moves up towards the $50 area, I think we have many Bullish stock set ups that will continue to play out.

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EBB & FLOW

I’m showing this chart again to point out that these runs are not straight up. Look at this company. This has tripled from the lows, yet look at it closely.  In Feb it went sideways for 2 weeks. In March it went sideways for 2 weeks. Your stocks may do nothing or go red one day and others are up 7-15%, it doesn’t mean “There is something wrong with my stock.”

 

This was OAS – It is $9.34 today and it is still bullish.  It only gained 1.9%  yesterday and a friend of mine was ‘worried’ about it.   That is a beautiful chart.

LOOK BACK at yesterdays report, I had MANY set ups that are breaking out , but can still be good entries.  These charts are from yesterday , for example:

EVEP – jumped 7% yesterday to $2.33,  still looks like a good entry

RIG- This only moved up 8 cents, but looks bullish with good potential upside.

So with yesterdays list still valid, I will give you  several more that look possibly ready to join the run.

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LGCY –  Still bullishly set up.  I don’t like to ‘pump’ this one too much for 2 reasons.  I own it and don’t want to look like I’m promoting my stock, and also it swings like a monkey in a tree. It can be difficult to ride, but the gains can outweigh the pains in my opinion.

This could always break out from the base & run to the 200sma like many others have. 200% from the 50sma to the 200sma.

My April 8 recommendation shows a bigger pic view

ANW –  Ready to break out & run?  A pullback to the 50sma could be bought at the 50 with a tight stop, or a break above the 200sma could be bought ( maybe a close above)

MEMP – I’ve been watching this.  It is climbing along ( Like PQ) making higher lows.  Its a lower risk entry here, because your stop is below the blue line.

VOC – The RSI is above 50% , this one has been a bit sideways after the initial run off of the lows.

CPE – I recommended CPE at $6 on a break from the down trend line.  It had a surge of volume yesterday as though it wants to break out from something big.  Is it?

CPE MONTHLY–  I think it is. THIS IS A 7 YEAR BASE!  If this company recovers, it looks like it wants to run from $10 to $30 , and over $10 allows certain funds to buy it that may have restrictions.  Some FUNDS cannot buy stocks under $10.  I am keeping an eye on this one too.

  2 companies by request  – 

Hey SABIN!  I left the chat/comments section mid day yesterday and didnt see your request until late.

MDR and EMES were both mentioned here already. lets review & update .

 

MDR – It still looks like it wants to run higher, as far as $6, but I would like to see more volume pushing it along.  Volume may come in as it has in the past. This may stall since it is breaking out from this multi week consolidation with average volume.

EMES  –  April 6th I used these 2 charts for EMES. It had a nice run and was a LOW RISK BUY at the 50SMA support, put your stop there..

I then showed this Long Base to show the upside potential if this gets going.

EMES – Emes has popped and dropped , bumping along this base, but at $5.35 , it is only $0.47 cents higher that the above chart.  Is something wrong?

 

CLOSER LOOK –  This actually ran from $4.35 to $6 and has pulled back. This looks bullish and could make a stronger move higher soon. I see an inverse H&S.   IF YOU CAN WITHSTAND more sideways action ,  you could buy here with a stop under the 50sma, or buy a break out. 

 

As I write, GOLD is at $1260 🙂

 

I dont usually have Friday reports.  ( Except for the last 15 Fridays)   

When I started this service, I was going to do a weekend report to cover Monday, and then do a Tues, Wed, Thurs report, Friday as necessary. On Thursday morning I write what I think will move the markets and be valid for Thursday and Friday and then just cover the weeks activity and future thoughts in the weekend report.  The markets have been so active and profitable lately, that I have written a small report every Friday for weeks now.  I do not PLAN on writing a report tomorrow, this report & trade ideas and yesterdays trade set ups should still be enough activity for us to use for the last 2 days of this week.  IF something exciting happens  (Gold?), I will see you in a brief report tomorrow  

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Thanks for being a chartfreak!

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~ALEX

 

P.S.  Please re-read yesterdays report if you need to track more ideas. I want to release this at 7:30 a.m. so you have time to read it, please ignore typos, I will go back and fix them now.