Friday April 15th

Its Friday April 15th, so I wanted to remind you that it is Tax day in the States, and I also needed to offer a clean slate in the comments section, since yesterdays comments section was FULL. 🙂

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General Markets : We watched the markets break out Wednesday

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DJIA – ( I thought I had the SPX, but it’s the same for the point that I wanted to make here ). 

The markets have actually been volatile and basically just going sideways for over a year now with a couple of deep drops. SIDEWAYS FOR A YEAR.  That kind of churning can lead to big moves when the consolidation breaks. That is also a lot of resistance on the left side, so we usually see the markets struggle a bit to work through the resistance. 

WTIC – The Oil daily cycles can last 30 – 50 days, and we are only on day 7.  I like the set up and the first daily cycle was right translated, so here we are making new highs. It looks very good, I’d like to see price hold above the 200sma, but it may fill that gap. I will discuss some Energy stocks that are acting correctly shortly.

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BELOW IS A LINK TO SHORT ARTICLE. A MEETING TAKING PLACE THIS WEEKEND  MAY AFFECT THE PRICE OF OIL, but the charts and cycles say OIL is going higher so far.

Oil Meeting This Weekend

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XLE – A break above the 200sma and the 50sma is curled up.  The XLE is looking good too ( There is a gap here too, however.

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NATTY – There was concern about the drop in NATGAS Thursday, but I see it this way – so far, so good short term.  The 50sma could get tagged ( $1.90) and it is still sloping down.  That indicated that if NATTY is improving, it is early in that cycle.  That will correct itself with higher price and time.

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GOLD –  Last week the idea was put out there that Gold may Pop 7 drop. A head & shoulders formation, since it was due for its ICL ( A deep trade-able low) 

It finally looks to be dropping into the ICL. This will  (IN TIME) offer us a good re-entry in the precious metals sector. Markings on this chart mean NOTHING at this point,  TIME IS THE IMPORTANT THING.  I’m just tossing out possibilities.

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GDX – It will take TIME for this to play out, so I threw up a few fib #’s and moving averages, but patience is needed when Miners start dropping into a low. Things will not drop straight down, try not to be tempted to jump in early .

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 I mentioned that OIL is early in its second daily cycle.  We are getting a dip this morning, so Lets just review a few of the ENERGY stocks that were mentioned last week. They may go on sale today 🙂 . Some Juniors are really volatile and rattle nerves, but a few of these still look valid and less volatile than some of the Juniors.

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OAS has been mentioned several times since its lows. It is not jumpy or volatile and this was it last week, as a break out “Buy” near $7 when OIL sold off.  

Then it went to $9 a couple of days later.

OAS Thursday, this could be a mini cup & handle and I would still buy this knowing that it is less volatile and OIL looks bullish. (THAT HANDLE COULD DROP TO $8 or continue sideways for a bit) I sold my DRD trade yesterday ( taken at the break out)  and grabbed this sideways move when it sold down. Unfortunately my stop has to be below 8,  but that’s the set up.

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WPX – March 2 Breaking out.  I point this out to show that some of these stocks are holding up well. It was pointed out here under $5 

WPX – April 6 . Slow and steady.   Again,  Mentioned here because as oil sold off for 9 straight days, this pattern is a Bullish consolidation. Not pulling back.

WPX actually dropped to support and ran right back up yesterday!  It may consolidate here and can be bought with support as a stop, but it MIGHT move from $7 – $8  – $7 – $8 .  I expect higher price if Oil continues to recover, it held up very well in Oils sell off.

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SN –  Pointed out at $6.17 as strong and breaking above the 200sma. Also did NOT drop when Oil sold off.  Look at the upside potential. Guess what?

SN –  It broke out and ran above $7 and is now pulling back. I think it can be bought anywhere in this area, but may drop to the 10sma at $6.00 as a good low risk buy ( the 13 is shown) .

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SWN – From last week.  This is a nice base and also did NOT sell off when OIL sold off for 9 days.  A break out above $8.20 looks very bullish,  look at the upside potential. 

SWN Thursday –  Yes it did break out nicely this week, almost hitting $11 yesterday.  This would be a buy if it pulls back or goes sideways for a while until the 10sma catches up. I’m going to keep my eye on this one!

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MRO In early March, MRO broke out from a down trend and the upside looked to be $14 easily once above the 50sma.

MRO –   2 days ago  MRO broke out from a possible inverse H&S  and looks to have a $17 target, and…

It has been  stalling at this $13 price for 2 days, so it could be bought with a TIGHT STOP, anticipating the upside of the inverse H&S. You can see a bit of resistance to the left that it may be trying to get above. 

MRO – Could also be viewed this way now. If this hits the target at $18, it will be a run from $6 to $18 since Feb.  Impressive.

So yesterday I gave some trade ideas in the Tech Market, Energy, Commodity markets.   Pullbacks could lead to buying opportunities, and we got started on some pullbacks yesterday in VALE, SID, etc.  I said that I liked and bought AA  ( I like CENX too)  , since they have been consolidating.

The above list is from last Fridays Energy picks. You can see that some have performed well this week, along with our  CLF, VALE, SID, etc.   When I give you a list of charts like the above list, I recommend that you might want to take time and write down A small list to watch, it will help you to focus on what you may want to buy on a pullback.  You may also want to write the date & name of the report that you saw those in.   So Today your list would be OAS, WPX, SN, SWN, AA, CENX, etc.  And the date and name of todays report or last Friday .  And of course I’d watch VALE, CLF, SID, CHK, etc, but they may drop & consolidate again, I’ll cover that in the weekend report.  IN CASE YOU FORGOT, CLICK THE LINK BELOW TO READ ABOUT THIS WEEKEND AND OIL.  You may or may not choose to hold energy plays until after the weekend.  I don’t usually trade based on the news, the charts still look bullish.  The Fed is the exception, I’m cautious around Fed time.

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SAME OIL ARTICLE IN CASE YOU FORGOT 🙂

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You all are a great group of traders and friends.   I really enjoy having you here, and enjoy your feedback and ideas.   So I have given you a clean slate to be able to chat and share trade ideas, weekend plans , your favorite foods and beverage, concerts you’ve enjoyed ,  stunts you plan on participating in ,  Movies you liked ,  Pets ,  etc.     And  here’s a nice reminder…. my mother  ( The new Moderator) may be reading this too  🙂   . 

HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY TRADING AND WEEKEND.

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~ALEX