Get Your Ducks In A Row

I cannot believe how nicely these markets are getting their ducks all lined up in a row.  This report is going to be as long as a weekend report! You may even be a little surprised to see what I am about to show you…

.

SPX – Tuesday I pointed out that the wedge had resolved itself.

Break out

 

Due to the length of this report, I’m going to be brief in my explanations…

 

IBB- The pullback would be a buying opportunity

IBB –  It was a buying opp, we see the reversal. Many Biotech stocks look like great set ups again.

The USD –  Bottomed and is likely the ICL. A bullish wedge break out means the dollar is going higher  ( Gold finally drop to its ICL?).

NOW For more ducks lining up…

If you were a reader here, you recall me saying that the BANKS were breaking down, and that would be bad for the markets trying to recover and resume the bull Run. 

.

BKX- This was my Feb 26th chart showing resistance at $62 and $66.

BKX – Breaking above $62 and $66 with conviction. This chart is bullish in many ways, but Is it real?

 

Yes, because JPM, MS, GS, BAC, etc ALL look strong and breaking higher.  BANKS ARE RECOVERING.

.

JPM – Huge volume and a very bullish chart.

Morgan Stanley – This is a Bullish chart ready to break out.  These bank stocks are now another sector that looks like a Buy.

I will cover more in the weekend report, but I  showed how the other weaknesses evident in the markets were a threat to the longer term Bull Mkt.  Now we are seeing sector after sector recover.  If you have been here since Dec, you may recall me saying that various areas like the   $TRAN, $NYA,  JNK, HYG, etc.  had broken down severely.  They are all recovering, so step by step we are seeing progress at this point. 

.

WTIC – day 6 of a new daily cycle and Energy stocks are again rocketing higher.

 

XLE – I was watching for a trendline break this weekend. Above 63 is a start. Wednesday the XLE broke over 64.

My chart from Tuesday, the XLE went a bit higher.

.

XES – Oil & Gas equipment. I was asked about the XES yesterday morning, so I drew this up at 10 a.m. It hit a high of 18.09.

.

CRB – April 8 wkly

 

The CRB is only on day 6 of a new daily cycle.  Our CLF , SID,X,  AKS, FCX, , VALE, etc have rocketed in those few days.  We could get a pullback and then higher price again.

.

GOLD, SILVER, MINERS CONUNDRUM

Are the Ducks lining up in a row here? Perhaps so.

.

 Gold –  From last week (April 7) I mentioned that due to the “Timing”, Gold is getting late and could Pop & Drop into an ICL. It could just run away, since MINERS looked to be doing that,  but then I mentioned that MINERS were earlier in their ‘timing’.    With the USD putting in an ICL, Golds drop to an ICL  may happen.

GOLD WEDNESDAY –  More time needed, but the 200sma is down near $1140. Proceed with caution for now .

 

GDX – I pointed out last week with this chart that Miners were earlier in their timing  ( They bottomed as shown in JANUARY,  Gold bottomed DEC 3). So they could run to 23, while gold Pops or meanders. 

GDX –  They have done just that. Is that it?

So many Miners have had EXCELLENT runs higher out of the lows.  Wouldn’t we LOVE a pullback to re-enter those trades? We could be about to get a multi week pullback, but will it drop deeply or just go sideways like it has been?   Time will tell, but this will be a nice buying opportunity.

.

BUT THEN I LOOK AT SILVER

 

SILVER WKLY–  This looks like it wants to break out from a strong base.  Silver stocks didnt wait around, they ran very strongly.  Take a look at AG or CDE if you need proof!  So will silver break out while Gold pulls back?  Will Miners pull back if Silver breaks out?  Conundrum. My guess is that Silver continues sideways for 2 more weeks.  (Or a break and back test?).

 

.

SO it seems like ALL of the Ducks are lining up in a row. I will cover this in the weekend report, but it looks like  2016 is going to continue to be a GREAT year of trading, with so many sectors participating. 

.

At this point, let me take some time to review a few things and then end this report.  That will leave us with Thursday and friday to watch how the above areas continue to unfold. The next 2 days will be important for that break out in the SPX, NASDAQ, DOW, and how the  TRANNIES, BANKS, etc continue on.   Also important is what the ENERGY, CRB, and Precious Metals and Miners sectors do Thursday & Friday.

 

POSSIBILITIES-

.

CLF – So we obviously have a strong move and this was as of April 12.  I had it for yesterdays report, but yesterdays report I had to spend a lot of time answering questions on ‘SELLING’, so this move in CLF is actually at the blue dotted line now.   IF we get that ‘Hook’ move in the CRB, this could pullback , but only being Day 6 on Commodities, I think that it can run to the $6 ish area.

Then I drew a possible pull back to tag the 200sma, but this was less likely. If we get that Hook move, maybe the break out yesterday tags or back tests that Green neck line shown here.

VALE –  I posted this yesterday after 10 a.m. in the comments section to show 2 price projections. A conservative one takes ‘A‘ from the straight up move in February.  A stronger one takes ‘A‘ from the entire move. One leads to yesterdays highs, the other over $6.  Both are valid .

As I showed yesterday-  THESE are actually looking like longer term BUY & HOLD possibilities too. One day, I think that we will look back and  we will not believe that CLF was above $1, and we were nervous when it dipped from $4 to $3.50!! 🙂  CLF was $100 in 2011, and that was after three 2:1 splits!!

.

LGCY – Energy stocks rocketed higher this week too, and some pulled back Wednesday. So looking at LGCY and a few others, , it may drop to the 10sma after such an explosive move, OR, it may just be a bull flag before an even more explosive move.  Thursday and Friday trading will reveal that.

.

AA – Earnings came out and AA dropped quickly, then recovered yesterday.Day 6 of the CRBs daily cycle may see this break out. Volume was swelling on the buying side yesterday.  Large Inverse H&S?

.

SO a ‘fake out drop’ at earnings? A run higher?  I entered  AA at the close yesterday with a partial position.  I MAY BE EARLY if this consolidation continues, so I will add on a dip. 

I looked at this mid day and thought,  ” It held at the 200sma, but never quite tagged the 50sma yet and may do so on another dip. I will start a position and add on the 50sma or on a break out higher to complete my position.”  

 

AA WLY –  This could go sideways, most traders wait for the break out to buy.  Put this on your watch-list?  Or just Buy with a stop like I have, but if the consolidation continues, it could get boring.

PEIX – This is starting to act correctly again (energy).  It could be bought here with a stop below recent support. A move higher also breaks a downtrend line (not shown) and that could be bought.

.

You may recall that I mentioned a while back that I used to trade  JOY  ( JOYG at the time) and BOOM in the past. They were well known stocks .  I posted the chart below showing that they also looked to be setting up bullishly. 

.

MATERIALS  –  JOY & BOOM

JOY WKLY MARCH 28 – BREAKING OUT ON A WKLY,   $10 to almost $20, then back to $15.

It continues to POP – I missed that Buy at $15, but it is now a large inverse H&S base.   This should go on a watch list,  this looks to also be recovering.  JOY was $100 in 2011 , and that was also after a couple of splits  ( not reverse splits). 

.

BOOM– My 2 march 17 charts, setting up bullishly at the bottom. 

 

Wednesday BOOM popped 15%, breaking out of a long term down trend & tight base. So there are signs of life all over the commodity sector. 

 

BOOM CLOSE UP – Yesterday was a break from the base. I love these bases when they finally break out, we can start getting recovery moves longer term.  You know how ABX, NEM shot out of their bases once they got going ( see below) . 

NEM base example: It ran to 431 eventually.

.

So the markets are threatening to break out to new highs.  Do I see good set ups after the recent sell off / correction from Jan to March?  Yes, I see some great set ups in stocks that remain in an uptrend , and I see bases from  HUGE sell offs starting to really look like they could provide strong gains going forward.   Lets look at 3 examples of once loved companies stocks  ( There are many)  that got crushed in…

TECH –

.

FEYE – Wow  $55 to $12, then back to $20 and a tight sideways base above the 50sma. Tag the 50 in more sideways or break out?  Either could be a buy if the markets remain healthy. 

EXAS – Inverse H&S break out.  This is a buy for traders.

 

GRPN – Much loved, then hated.  20% POP yesterday in a very tight long base above the 50sma.

So you can see that there looks to be many ducks all lining up in a row, and many trade opportunities seem to be presenting themselves in sector after sector.  I will cover this more in the weekend report late Sunday or early Monday morning.  For now, I think this lengthy report covers trading today and unless there is some huge change,  this covers Friday too.   I may or may not put out a small report tomorrow morning, it depends on if I see any really good chart set ups. 

.

Thanks for being here!

.

~ALEX

.

 

TRADERS  & CHART LOVERS MAY FIND THESE CHARTS INTERESTING looking for set ups, pullbacks, etc –  

Shippers –  NM, DRYS, DSX, FTK, TNK, etc . 

BIOTECH – IDRA, MDGN, ZIOP, ETC. 

TECH – TWTR, FEYE, CY, LSCC, ETC. 

ENERGY –  GLF, LGCY, OAS, HK, BAS, PEIX, DQ, AXAS? WTI, NOG, LPI,  , MANY MANY more

.

 COMMODITY –  FCX, TCK, AA, CENX, Etc .

.

CLASSIC  – Recently Many banks and wealth management divisions ( Merrill Lynch is one of Bank of Americas) were calling for $800- $900 Gold and “SELL” Miners   RIGHT AT THE LOWS.

I thought that the clip below was a interesting.  They upgraded  GG, AEM, etc, after the run higher,   So it MUST be time for a pullback now

.