Pieces Of The Puzzle For growth
The environment for trading in 2016 has been excellent for traders and investors that knew where to look. If you have been a subscriber since January, then you have seen so many trade ideas blossom and grow. We have been finding various sectors that had bullish set ups that many were actually afraid to trade in. Coming out of their lows, the potential has been tremendous if you know what to look for.
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For example, just look at this one stock.
MUX – Whether you traded it, or bought and held when it was recommended, it is up over 100% from its lows.
Lets look at a number of current trade set ups with conditions that favor the upside…
I almost hated to put this out this morning, because the weekend reports are always fairly extensive and well thought out. They are very important to understanding the bigger picture. IT IS NOT TIME TO MOVE ON and forget the weekend report. It would be beneficial to go back to it and re-read it today or even later in the week. It helps us to understand that , ” Even if OIL is pulling back, or if Vale pulls back, the big weekend picture would lead me to believe that I shouldn’t be overly concerned with OIL or the CRB dipping down a bit, I should look for a buy the dip opportunity.“
This Monday report is to show trade ideas. Again, dont be overwhelmed if I have 10 trade ideas on Thursday, 10 more Friday, 10 in the weekend report, and now 10 Monday morning. You cannot take every trade, and I certainly do not. I do this because some did take a trade recommendation, but others wanted to see if the sector is following through. Now they need a trade, but the others may have popped 20% and they dont want to chase or enter with the downside risk of a possible 10% pullback, etc.
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So I’ve given you ENERGY and COMMODITY ideas. I suggest you write them down, or write down where to find them later (Which report you can look up) for future reference. Here is something different…
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SHIPPERS: UGLY LAST YEAR. Sometimes Shippers store and transport OIL and could start profiting as ‘storage tankers’. When I see 1 or 2 stocks improve in a sector, thats a ‘maybe’. When I see MOST stocks setting up? That could be a sector wide break out coming ( Remember BIOTECH, ENERGY, MINERS?).
TK – GREAT BASE. If this recovers and breaks out from this base , upside could be great.
NM – Inverse H&S forming.
SB– I’d like to see better volume personally, but this stock could double with a break out really.
DSX –
SBLK WKLY
SBLK ZOOMED IN
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Now lets take another look at a couple of Miners for that Big Picture outlook.
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Does anyone remember how much I liked ABX / NEM Bases? You may remember that I repeatedly mentioned in JAN and FEB those bases? Yes, you are sick of hearing it 🙂
Well, Does anyone remember me saying that TAHO WKLY chart was extremely bullish looking to me when it was $9, and then $10? I used this chart. Well, it is playing out perfectly, and THIS is a piece of that puzzle for growth . They bought PZG and have good potential moving forward.
It has been rather slow motion, but we have a base break out and back test completed. This would make a good candidate for BUY & HOLD Core type investment if you ask me. You can see that now, right?
TAHO – There is resistance on the left side of the chart, but this can eventually recover to $26 and more if the Gold Bull Has returned.
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Please do your own DUE DILIGENCE if you want to know fundamentals on Shippers, ENERGY, MINERS, etc. I am a firm believer that often you see improvement in a chart well before you can read about it. Insiders and smarter money get the news first, and leave a footprint of their buying in the chart. HOWEVER: RISKS & SURPRISES STILL EXIST IN ALL INVESTMENTS.
Enough said, Dont put all your eggs in 1 basket.
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And dont forget that the weekend report is not now outdated 🙂 You may want to re-read it as the week goes by to see if something stands out as important or to refer back to chart set ups that were listed there…
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~ALEX
A good reminder in the comments from the weekend report, in case some missed it. Thanks Fubsy


















reposted from prev disc. my 2 brothers and i inherited a bunch of natgas wells 2015 and other half of year 1850 ancestral property in nw Louisiana estate will be closed in june thus will have twice as many. 2008-2014 royalties outta nowhere totaling 7 to 8 figures has made me look at the 18month crash as not real. there is a natgas demand bomb that is gonna blow and it ain’t gonna be fun. mankind can do better than the recent silliness in managing his resources. come on! that bein said lol $5 ngas? is that askin’ for too much? lmao. laissez les bon temps rouler! {`_` } . (hmm ng futures.)
CHK taking off with strong volume ( oh yeah, and LGCY 🙂
widow maker.. oh my… 😀
heh-heh. pure dumb luck lottery win. me the luckiest to have walked on terra firma.
chk is our energy co. with one well that came in awesome flow 2008 on dad’s dad’s dad’s dad’s property and exco drilled all the wells on me dad’s mom’s mom’s property.
Thats a cool story. Been tough for NATGAS lately, but that could be changing
peak check was august 2014’s monthly. $199,000. unreal. surreal. i ain’t complainin’. time to open account in cayman. hate to have to surrender 40% to uncle sam to pay interest on a whatever debt.
SWN is me fav. viewing daily on tradestation now. it is positioned to “clear the launch pad”. then “go with throttle up!”
These Junior Miners are rocking. MGN 35% AUMN 40% AXU, VGZ, ASM, AAU, etc etc
I was watching TGD pinched between that 50sma and the 200sma…. Break out today.
gold drives me bonkers. and paranoid of manip. gold miner’s i should stick to.
CLF is making it s break today. 2.5 million in volume in the first 1/2 hr? Looks very good here.
Thanks for your analysis on shippers 🙂
Ur welcome Alan,
They can be a bit tricky ( scary) around earnings , so be aware of their earnings dates. Other than that, they are lining up nicely too.
Where’s Maria? REXX up 13% Today AGAIN!
Oh No you didnt! 🙂
There goes the G rating
ohhhhh … pecos … whatEvvvver did u do for fun before u met me??? ;o) …
20% now!
*no… I’m not posting one where my clothes fall off …
😀
Holy Smacks!!!
Just looking these shippers
EGLE from 800 bucks in 2013 to
.35 now. Room to run? Lol
How do they avoid bankruptcy?
btw…love all the setups! Thx!
Some had reverse splits and then, maybe did a reverse split again. Plenty of shares to spare , LOL
S.O.S. W.S —— Save our ship with splits
PRGN just did a 1:38 reverse split!!! CRAZY. I try to stay away from those overly diluted ones if I can see that they’ve done the reverse split to save their ship , but the upside on a chart looks tremendous
AUMN – up 73% currently
Widow maker or Bear Breaker, depends on which direction you ride it in
I’m so curious to see how this bull leg runs. If like me, the masses are standing by waiting for the drop, then it could roll for awhile. But man, the drop is likely to be really gut wrenching and just kick longs in the teeth before shaking itself off and charging again. I suspect it’s gonna be really hard to pull the trigger when the ICL finally comes. Bummed to be mostly out. Waaaah
Yeah, I’m mostly out of gold right now too…..really bummed…but….hopefully pick up some deals when it drops into ICL.
I’m definitely mostly out, I’ve just been trading some set ups, but it doesnt feel as bad since CLF SID & VALE are up 8- 10% , and I own some energy that are up big too ( LGCY – crazy).
As far as the coming pull back to an ICL FUBSY – I put in tonights report what I have seen in the past. It can be a tseep drop, but rather quick too ( 2 weeks?).
That’s what I’m hoping for. The length doesn’t matter to me. I just need to see terrified, bloody late coming longs capitulate, (I’m not evil, I swear…just connect w sentiment as an indicator) followed by a reversal. What I struggle with is a drifting lolly gag crxn like we just had. But the farther it stretches, the steeper will be the drop.
Looking frwd to seeing what you put into the report.
Hi Alex – Great analysis on energy and shippers. I still have som natural Gas. Any thoughts. Trying to figure out if I should hold or sell. Thanks
Posted in the other chat, but I’ll post here as well. BUG buyer of EEM calls this morning, 30,000 of them to be exact. Good news for metals/energy.
September, $36.50 strike, to be exact.
Hi Peter,
I like it because it crawled along under the 50 sma, then broke out above it and tested it now. I like it above the 50sma, it looks to be building energy to move higher, but when? I cant tell. If it breaks below the 50sma and closes there, I would think something was wrong.
That call money might not be too clear in the short term either, hence the september strike, but that’s a big bet that eem trades higher in the next few *months*…
yay!… go TPLM (at last)
Yes, I’m happy about that one too – been waiting!
Wow, 22% and I look at that chart and it looks like it is just getting going.
The last time it did this…..it quadrupled!
Happy days are HERE AGAIN! : )
interesting balance sheet on TPLM. Steady revenue growth over the last 5 years. Still negative net income.
TPLM earnings out Today. Not sure when
Good heads up (lately they’ve been FLY or Die in Energy).
Thanks for the heads up!
AKS trying to break out…there was interesting call volume there last week as well…
Yes, it has been holding back for a bit in the consolidation. Similar to SID, then POP.
KEG and HK will be the next 2 to break out. I bought RIG here, like the setup.
The REXX chart looks like the TPLM chart, and look what happened last time REXX got moving out of the lows. ROUGHLY $0.50 to $2.50 in days.
I like that HK chart, it was in my report last week.
i grew up 1969 jan (age 9) to late 1970’s where RIG eventually settled there in what was then anyway far-west Houston. motorcycles, home-grown sweetness down on the bayou, and many nights we “…danced on the bones ’till the girls said when…”. katy high school ’77. i have lived by the ikea I-10 west Houston katy frwy since 1999. “is it nice?” it is. well i mean padded walls and no sharp instruments. lmao.
LGCY 🙂 just wow silver is rocking’ SSRI :)I know you are supposed to control your emotions in trading: but this is a serious dopamine rush
lol ChartFreak is addictive… needs to rename to ChartCrack
yessssss he is …
oops .. i meant it … Freudian slip ;o)
*u shouldnt have said crack 😉
And you again… What can we do with a problem like Maria?
I need a comments MODERATOR! 🙂
giggle…
sorry .. I am a littttttle giddy today.. whewwww..dizzying gains…
I just hope the trading here can pay off their subscriptions, and eat well 🙂
snap, crackle, and pop. lol. {`_` } .
gimmee the pops that boost my account by 100% 🙂
LOL Crystal ( Hey, no more formalities, MsCrystal?) 🙂
You are volunteering to run the Gin & Tonic bar, you must remain unemotional.
yes .. good advice
say… we might as well make it a conference…
have some break out sessions… one can be on discipline…
*ill run that one..
HAHAHAH
“…Into the ground” , she said
…giggle
Figured I no longer needed the MS for my street cred. Making bank today so I guess I will need to hook everyone up with the good stuff! 🙂
I know that LGCY alone has made both of us and a few others pretty happy the past couple of days ; )
Yup!! Cold hard cash! http://www.maxim.com/news/study-confirms-money-does-buy-happiness-2016-4
“…libations, sensations, that stagger the mind…”
EXK has been killing it as well for silver plays.
looking at your TAHO Alex.. seems a clear 5 waves completing.
top nearby? (+/- overthrow at TL)
nice sog…
I can see that – and yes to the possible overthrow if that 5 extends.
In Miners at times, I see the channels get broken.
About time for me to buy…
nooooooo Caaaas…
step away from the edge … ;D
CLF is really starting to S-T-R-E-T-C-H out here, up over 12% today . It was lagging Friday, but this chart was the one to pay attention too. ( refresh the page to see it) .
I
LOL, still holding….
CLF….WOW!!! 🙂
Refresh : ) – LOL
What’s the ticker for “ChartFreak” so we chart that one too. 😛
Alex, do you have any thoughts on PGH? I’m holding some, just barely have a gain in it, wondering if I should keep holding…..I figured it should be going up…?
It is in an uptrend, it just doesnt seem to be reacting today that much.
The chart doesnt look bad, its just kind of in the middle of that uptrending channel stalling.
Alex, thoughts on RPTP? Still above the 8ema. RSI and %R rolling over seem to indicate lower prices ahead. Slling volume drying up! Not sure what to make of it. I’m leaning on selling.
It still looks ok, it looks like it is dropping to test that huge volume burst higher, and that gets it back to the 10sma area.
Will it rebound and fly soon after? Cant tell how long until it does, but it does look to be starting an uptrend.
LONG TERM hold it may be fine, short term, it may stall a bit.
SO I SOLD my TGD abd was happy to see it dip down to the $0.23 area.
Take a look at it today and look at that volume.
Miners are really acting correctly in the technical analysis view of things, I just forget to get back in!
Look at BAA and volume 🙂
Yes, I still own a lot of that in “Core” position, so I did notice that : )
As a part of my discipline, I have to sell SID into strength today. : (
I hate to do it because it is right at the highs and has acted very well since I bought it down in the consolidation , but I see a gap open and good volume, but not as good as other areas of the consolidation.
The way I look at that is that it will probably lose steam and fill that gap.
I do still hold VALE & CLF
SID : IN at $2.00 and $2.05 – OUT OF AT $2.56
Discipline is key. Same reason I sold some miners today.
Move in silver and gold miners leaving people under invested for sure.
have totally missed the moves in the miners since GDXJ went into orbit, which p$$e$ me no end.. but up to my eyes in physical bullion, so i shouldnt moan
All that’s happened so far is that miners have basically confirmed a change in trend. End of bear. But there will be a pullback somewhere along the way, and not 10% only. So patience is key. And you have the bullion, so not entirely missing out. You’re good.
I read newletters and post this weekend that bear isn’t over. Those guys are idiots.
Most of it is all personal opinion anyway, and reality is that in todays world of self directed investing, everyones opinion can be priced and sold. Thats where technicals come into play. And even then, you’ll find 10 CMT’S look at the same chart, and have 4 bullish, 4 bearish, and 2 neutral! How the heck do you study the same thing, yet arrive at a totally different conclusion? For me it’s simple: above 50 week sma, after period of consolidation=bull market. Elow 50 wk sma, after period of consolidation=bear market. Everything else is a short term rally. But stay with the major trend, and whatever you do, do not invest against it!
the huge runaway moves are gonna near 100% be in the direction of the long-term trend. thus if ya are against that, well, ya have my sympathies. peter uses very simple method as i do. personally i prefer a simple n-interval high/low. (popular ex 52-week high/low). for ex CDE the long-term trend turned UP at some point in feb 2016 when price exceeded the highest high price that it had achieved in the previous 89 trading days, and will remain UP until the inverse occurs. if it next week goes straight down, and keeps goin’ and goes lower than that lowest low $1.60 something, well hey ya don’t win them all. ya got wip-sawed. brains will get you only so far, and luck? well we know that she allllllllll-ways runs out. but a nice natural clean-cut stop loss price. immediately out out out dump all at the market then ya move on.
Trimming back on miners (again)!!!! EXK and GDXJ hitting a longer term area of resistance, so let’s take some money in and cut back. Will keep AUY & TAHO open. I had 40% of my portfolio in these 4 positions, so trimming a little might be prudent after the blast off last few days. Still have CLF, VALE, LGCY, AKS, UCO, LGCY, ERX, LABU & bought HK as a lotto. Got rid of CENX last week because I didn’t wanna risk exposure to AA earnings. Wish everybody well, hopefully I can treat you all to a couple cold ones on friday! 😉
Ditto on that list — though I still have CENX. My call on LABU was a stinker today though 🙁 I think I jinxed myself because I fell off the wagon in staying away from 3x etf….you and Maria need to get together Nd plan a CF get together on Alex’s behalf– (RIGHT, MARIA?…)
… RIGHT ON SISTA!!
BUTT 😉 … for literally yearssss, I’ve been tryn to get that man to host a gathering, or teach some classes with a hands on trading lab, or even just get an eyeball on him trading live … wheeeww … (hang on – i have to sit down for a minute, I’m making myself dizzy)
…. I’m thinking it’s not gonna happen anytime soon… 😉
Then maybe it’s time for the crew to take control of the ship! Not too hard.. Pick a date, pick a place. South Beach… NYC…. (I vote for NYC)
south beach…next february? LOL .. i decided today.. he he … i will be spending at least entire month of Feb someplace warm…
i know… let’s all go watch CF’s band… LOL
that’s an easy long weekend…anyway… ;o)
February in South Beach, can’t get better weather than that! But June-August, not even us Miami natives like it! TOO hot! Miami is great weather wise for 8 months out of the year. June-September is the ugly weather season. But it would be awesome to organize something.
Nice 🙂 I’m a teacher so June-Aug is best for me…but I think what works for the majority should rule. If Feb works for y’all I can wire my G&T funds western union
summer works great for me as well … :o)
**see band comment
Where are you in Florida Crystal??
I’m not in FL ..that’s Nancy the Artist. I’m in DC. FL would be wonderful — it’s a great marketing tool for CF and I don’t see why big league finance couldn’t back it up a bit (that’s why I though NYC — that’s where our $$ goes)
My bad!!! I thought you were in FL…. We could do DC too!! I’m actually planning on taking the kids to DC in June. Road trip from Miami to Hartford. Will probably spend a day in DC, at least a day in Philly as well. Hartford after that, and upstate NY to Niagara Falls…
Hopefully others, as well as Alex will put in their 2cents. I think that if Alex would just pick a place.. Or a date,,, we could all coordinate and help out with the organizing — if he wanted help (don’t want to distract him from his real job)
Sounds like quite the trip— but Peter, it’s impossible to do DC in a day!
I know you can’t do DC in a day, but my kids are still young and it’s enough that they’re even agreeing to the road trip!! They can’t stand being in the car for more than 1 hour! So White House, Lincoln Mem, etc, those are things that they are seeing in elementary school, so it would be cool for them to visit. If I spend too long walking around the museums they’re gonna throw in the towel and wanna head right back home!!!
At least get in an IMAX show at Air and Space– the rockets in there are totally cool
Will put it in the To do list!! 😉 If you can suggest anything else to do with a 7 and 8 year old, let me know!!! Thanks Ctystal.
Will do!
They might be young but a NAT’s game would be fun (maybe for you!)
You can go up top of the Washington Memorial. But book in advance to avoid lines and make sure not sold out!
Baltimore is only another 45 minutes up the road (unless traffic stinks then it’s 2 hours!) – inner harbor has lots to see and do (if you can park!).
The traffic is just awesome, isn’t it? Btw, is it spring yet?
Cherry Blossoms peaked a couple weeks ago– just gorgeous. Spring here is beautiful- if you have a convertible, then the traffic is bearable 🙂
Band?
Just all drive up to Boston and take over. Just give the date, sister. I’m guessing that’s where CF lives. Close by at least.
Absolutely Crystal! We can plan a CF get together, a once a year kinda thing. I vote for South Beach! I actually got rid of LABU at the close. Good thing I sold half the other day on the big pop! Thought XBI was bull flagging, but after today, I have my doubts.
i could not help meself fri close after the fed meeting the GLD 2 weeks to expire series call/put ratio was obscene. 200,000 calls to 500,000 puts. but i had to tell meself dammit-doit-now! bto 200 $116.50 Puts at $0.50. thank dog i was out out out that next wed open for $1.32. {-_- } .
Need to add TAHO and we’d have nearly same list. Skipped LGCY and really upset I did (picked other energy names). Frankly, UCO is outperforming the names I bought.
Sold half EXK at close. Almost sold all but didn’t want to miss out if she keeps running away. I plan on that being a core but I was up a ton, couldn’t risk it all going *poof* any pullback is a buy. Set it and forget it.
i want CDE. fun to if possible look back to for ex. 1997 when Coeur was $100’s per share. but lookin’ at the current daily. imho this is the real deal. rock bottom under $2? geebus hey back to those ancient highs? why not. this area, the gold mining shares, “wait for a pullback” can be so emotionally frustrating ya delude yaself. only solution is to get that issue cleared up asap. if you are not a “wfap” type then don’t. not for another minute. this is gonna be a most thrilling wild ride up and i ain’t hoppin’ off till never. lol. i wanna big bar to bite down on.
Hi Alex – miners are a lot of fun today, aren’t they?
Do you have time to look at EGO? RSI is at a point where there’s been a short-term top before, but the MACD is above zero & has crossed over its average again
Just wondering if you have an opinion – I have a lot of other miners I’m holding Old Turkey, and am watching 3 or 4 more
Thanks!
USD:BRAZIL REAL breaking down hard today. That should be huge for VALE and PBR.
Craaaazy volume on CHK. Watching it now…. Seeing if it can break $4.50 …
Should we be concerned about the dollar possibly reaching its low and maybe about to rise – will that send oil down or will it be able to hold strong?
Look at The USD mid Feb to March, then Look at OIL mid Feb to march. Oil went higher and the Dollar went higher together for weeks
Large buying of SPY apr 22nd weekly calls at the 210 strike. Always makes me wonder if someone knows something we don’t…. :-/
one of the SPY’s 10,000 197 put vol and 10,000 207 call vol. Get to keep the $1mil IF SPY stays within. short a straddle is it?
imho jan SPY down then straight back up ALL the way quick was a fed manip to put some fear of god into anyone thinking about selling the S&P to open to close to broaden or to pose lol.
the most wicked (price) Volatility Roll-Up (my coined term for me own pre-bb “v-squeeze” price volatility measuring method). the pattern is very similar to the (price) Volatility Roll-Up on the daily in aug 2015 that continued directly into and then over that waterfall. but this is on the weekly. dog help us. lol.
DUST – capitulation?
could be.. but i think some here have been wondering that every time it goes lower on high volume
Just 2 $ left to run to zero.
I’m curious to see when they’re gonna do a split. Usually split days are high volatility. Honna look into it tonight and see.
Nothing announced yet but DUST and JDST has no choice but to split before long. Can take them up to 4-6 to execute from announcement.
I’ll post something later but look at GDXJ at end of day. RSI (2) is over 99, almost $2 above upper BB. I’ve been wrong before (a lot!) on these recently but that really looked like a blowoff.
Notice gold still about $10 below Feb/Mar highs but ETFs and we’ll into new 52 week highs. Hell, SA had doubled from where I sold it. 🙁
you gotta be right.. this thing can’t go up forevah!
deffo looks like a wave 5 end (but ive said that too many times before.. lol)..
but just lookat the TAHO EW chart i posted below .. dunno how long that 5th can last out?
Who knows. Posted chart. I don’t understand. When it was in a bear I just wanted to find a bottom and go long. Now that’s a bull, I want to find a top. Sheesh! I’m NOT missing the next buy (if it EVER gets here).
posted chart = the one attached to my earlier comment (you replied to it anyhow, so its all good)
The TAHO chart? Yeah, checked that out. I can see the 5 wave structure for sure. Have to see if she busts out the top first or not. This has been agonizing.
AA – Stock is down 3% in after hours……Moments ago, Alcoa reported adjusted EPS of $0.07, or $108 million in adjusted net income, beating consensus expectations of $0.02 handily (nevermind that it missed consensus revenues of $5.2 billion by a whopping $250 million, a drop of 15% from a year ago)
THX RG!
All Green :))
Gotta love THAT color, huh? Thx for posting, hadn’t seen you around as much 🙂
Glad to be here. (been quite busy and have little time for trading but enjoy reading the Freaks almost every day 🙂
I thought maybe you’d moved on…
I can’t; I’d be lost!
GDXJ really shot the moon today. Wanted to look at recent performance since bull market re-started when it was this far overbought in terms of Bollinger Band and RSI(2). I’ve been wrong every time I’ve tried to find the top. So, can’t that this is it (b/c I’d just be wrong again), but a minimal pullback here would at least make sense, right?
Refresh!
Tip to follow at own risk: I am picking up INO … Have friends at CDC in Atlanta where it’s getting hot and humid… Plus the House is reviewing Zika priority Zika voucher legislation tonight