Friday April 8

/127 Comments/in /by

Lets review a few things on this final day of the trading week

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No Change on the SPX – We are moving sideways basically. There really is quite a bit of overhead resistance.

spx 4-7

WTIC – I got carried away and  made 3 charts of OIL.

1. This shows technical analyses –  a possible inverse H&S with support and resistance.

wtic 4-7

2. Cycle counts –  This shows that we may have put in a DCL.  We like to see a break of the 10sma and an overhead trend line break.  Is that an overhead trend line break, which is further confirmation?

WTIC 4-7b

Live shot – trend line break looks good this morning.  IF I took the line from the top to points, it may only lead to the top of today so far, but this looks good.

CRUDE

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CRB-  The CRB hung in there yesterday, above the 50sma and oversold.

CRB 4-7

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COPPER –  Copper dropped like a rock yesterday, and I don’t know why. It was holding up nicely.  Since it is oversold, it MIGHT be a shake out below the 50sma / trend line,  more time is needed to know for sure.

COPPER

 So with that drop, I took a look at FCX  (Copper and Gold miner)  and I wondered if this is going to follow copper with a drop to the 50sma?  It’s not ‘Broken’ if it does,  it has had a nice run $3.50 to $11.50  (  Huge really) .  So  that would be about a 50% pullback, but if someone owns it, its an unpleasant ride.

FCX

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And what about GOLD yesterday? 

I have been discussing a deeper drop or longer consolidation period time-wise.  When I saw Gold break above that trend line, I thought ,  “This is a conundrum.”  Lets take a look.

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GOLD –   Upon further examination, it is possible that we started our 4th daily cycle 4 days ago.  These are usually strong looking out of the gate, and then roll over early maybe by day 10 or so  ( left translated ) and drop into the ICL,  as shown here.  I still expect that, though yesterday may have looked convincing.  As a chart – this actually looks bullish. In fact…

GOLD 4-7

 

GDX – This was my chart April 5th  for the GDX , and I said…. “ This is actually bullish looking.”  I wasn’t talking about only the RSI , I meant the whole set up / consolidation. Many individual Miners have remained bullish.

GDX 4-5

 

GDX – GDX popped yesterday.  Volume is lightening up, so follow through may not last,  but since Individual Miners look pretty bullish and this GDX chart has been holding up in a consolidation phase,  it may want to run to the next prior peak if GOLD is starting a 4th daily cycle.  It could run higher,  it may not. It also would be expected to dip down into a low  shortly after if it did.

gdx 4-7

 

Many Miners are still near former highs through this consolidation and it looks more like Bull market activity / consolidation  than the old bear market crash downs in Miners that we got used to.  I will cover more thoughts on Miners in the weekend report.  For now,  I still like ENERGY ( See charts at the end of yesterdays report)  BIOTECH, and hopefully Commodities will get moving up and out from their consolidations. 🙂  Enjoy your Friday trading and  have a great weekend.

 

~ALEX

 

Just in case anyone was wondering, I didn’t really have a THEME for todays report, so I just attached a picture that I took on a hike in the Mountains of North Conway N.H.  When you get to the top, it is Beautiful!

Cathedral Ledge, N.Conway N.H.

127 replies
    • nancytheartist
      nancytheartist says:

      I miss those beautiful Rockies…I’m a flatlander now in FL….but we have the ocean.

      • Mscrystal
        Mscrystal says:

        Excluding sunburns and freckles the beach life is great– though nothing quite compares to reaching the top of a trail after a very strenuous hike 🙂

  3. Peter Castillo
    Peter Castillo says:

    Good morning Alex!!! Question: do you mind if I post someone else’s thoughts here in the chat? They are not paid content, and very isightful.

      • Peter Castillo
        Peter Castillo says:

        Yes, it’s free info. Very actionable for all of us here in the energy space. He’s about the most even keel, objective person I follow. Thank you! I’ll post it, go ahead and read it when you get a chance.

  5. Bill
    Bill says:

    CF, good call on AREX up 14% for no particular reason. Company isn’t a great fundamental choice but look at her go.

  6. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    Many of the energy stocks in yesterdays report are up 6 – 10 % ( ERF, OAS, LGCY, etc)

    AREX up 16% UPL, EXXI 20% , they were not in my report.

    Energy looking good

    • Bill
      Bill says:

      EXXI? another loser if you rely solely on fundamentals. RIG has solid books but only up 4%, same with PACD? You would think the solid companies would move better.

    • JT
      JT says:

      AREX was in the report because I took the trade :o) Great call Alex!

      Wondering if I should add today…

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        AREX looks good, but the volume is a tad average.

        When I look at something like LGCY ( I added) the volume is really coming in, and I view that as fuel for the rocket 🙂

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Great report – I had UCO, WPX, OAS going into today. If we pullback, will add 2nd half (really wish I had grabbed a full position in UCO, though). But want to get out before we eventually roll over, should have some time here, really strong move out of the lows for oil. Went for the breakout and retest buy, and add on dips plan this time.

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          read the above

          Its not a big deal, but people post Free distribution as you call it….advertising their services. It’s an advertisement.

          I have members in here that write their own letters, and have had problems long ago in the comments section, so I just asked people not to advertise themselves here,. That said, I thought that it isnt fair to restrict them, but them everyone else posts others pay srvc advertising.

          whatever- I’ll deal with the emails 🙂

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        The only reason I dont like to encourage posting pay service articles , etc is because I have had problems here in the past.

        A few members in here run pay services, some I like and agree with, others I could do without ( too emotional, name calling, etc). In the past I had to ask them not to post links to their services, because it gets competitive. I also got several emails asking me not to allow certain persons to do that, because they felt that that person really hurt them trading -wise. etc. They got into arguments over differing trade ideas, and were called idiots and morons.

        I lost some really good commenters who wouldn’t comment any longer, thinking they werent good enough. I hate that environment. It becomes childish and non productive.

        So- to be fair to everyone, I just didn’t think its fair to post other peoples pay services stuff , when I’ve asked a few in here to stop posting theirs.

      • Peter Castillo
        Peter Castillo says:

        He does have a paid service, of course, but this is free stuff. Again, hope you dont mind, and if you mind I’ll take it down asap. But it just highlights something that we might have missed in xle: the cup&handle. Again, I dont want to make you uncomfortable with it and respect your decision. But it is free, and only share it because it might be beneficial to the rest (all of us!) And I am NOT trying to promote his service either. I am not a member of his. As far as I know, he is mostly an.options trader.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      It’s probably not a problem at this point. This was even before I had a pay service, I had this site opened to all the public, and the comments section got a bit ugly once or twice. Then when it went pay service, I tried to nip it in the bud, because I had some good commenters stop adding their input – just because they felt belittled. Thats the part that bothered me. I like everyone 🙂

      • Peter Castillo
        Peter Castillo says:

        It’s cool Alex. I took it down anyway to not cause any issues. I respect you and your site above everything. I’m a guest in your house!! We’re good. And thank you as always for great info! 🙂

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          Well, no problem and like I said, it happened in the beginning and bothered some commenters here. I’ve been doing this for a couple of years now and I’m not going to police things forever : )

          If anyone gets nasty, I’ll just throw the bums out! – lol

      • Cason
        Cason says:

        Must have been early on b/c I don’t ever see issues in here. Unlike some of the trolls that lurk on ST.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      There is some really good action out there today : )

      LGCY has over 1/2 million in volume in less than 1 hr. I think things are going to get good again in round 2 of many of these energy plays.

      VALE, SID, CLF etc moving too

      • nancytheartist
        nancytheartist says:

        I have all of those thanks to you. Please… don’t forget the other end… and advise us as you see a run end in sight.

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          Right, I will keep updating progress in my daily reports. I think this run is just starting, there will still be down days, but look at VALE or FCX etc and look at that 1st run up – the up days take care of the down days.

          Then we’ll lighten up on the way up , similar to what I did with Miners (hopefully not too early).

          • nancytheartist
            nancytheartist says:

            Thanks for the reassurance…I will be watching as often as I can, and reading all your reports/comments.

      • Tammie
        Tammie says:

        Yeah, I have a couple I’m almost out of the red on….yesterday I was thinking I should add to them so I could average down a bit and be out of the red sooner…..wish I had now, but always too afraid to add to a losing position..

        • nancytheartist
          nancytheartist says:

          I did that and added to CRK back awhile, so in one account I will be out of the red sooner. But in other instances, I have had that work against me when there was some other factor with the stock and it slid further down…then it is the case of throwing good $ after bad….not fun. I’ve learned to check the news, the company strength, the sector, earnings date etc. before doing it.

          • Cason
            Cason says:

            That’s a problem for all of us – do I stop out or do I add? I do find that I do better when I define a lower possible entry and start small with a plan to add instead of the position going against me and I double down to ‘make back losses’. But we all struggle with this one!

  10. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    I sent out a warning yesterday that TCK was looking like a possible H&S with volume.

    It never broke the neck line, so it may not play outr now – it is up a bit today. I kind of feel bad about that warning, I know some that owned it got out, but I had to report what I saw. Now I hope you can deploy that money into an energy stock and double it .

    refersh
    .

  11. Cal Staggers
    Cal Staggers says:

    Good morning, Alex –
    What do you think about FCX with this morning’s pop?
    Looking at your chart above, I’m wondering if this is a gift to exit with the goal of re-entering lower?
    I have a full position that i plan to hold for the long-term, but as you say, it’s not pleasant to weather drops!

  12. deshy
    deshy says:

    Alex, in the previous energy run up you had mentioned ECA. Any thoughts on this time around? Seems to be (still) consolidating well but not moving (at least as of now) much today–bit concerning given all the other action. Thx for any insight!

  13. Tammie
    Tammie says:

    Hey Alex, do you have any thoughts on TPLM or KEG? Have positions in those …just slightly in the red right now on them – but they aren’t doing much…I figured with a $2 move in oil they would have done something…? Wondering if I should keep hanging on…

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Hi Tammie _ Sorry for the late reply, I was away.

      TPLM started up a couple of days ago and may just be ‘reacting’ to the 50sma.

      KEG looks fine. It’s up 8 % today ,but was higher.

      Hope that helps.

  14. Peter Castillo
    Peter Castillo says:

    Alex!! Thank you for another great week!!! To everyone else also, thank you! Everyone’s posts contribute greatly. Have a great weekend everyone. Nice to go start the weekend with a day like today. Weekend weather in Miami will be a high of 80 and low near 65, can’t ask for anything better than that! South Beach and some Stellas sounds about right!! Cheers!!

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Yep. Not sure what you guys are doing today, but I’m making money on energy!
      Still need these stupid miners to pullback. Ahh…! All they ever used to do was fall relentlessly. I see others now still calling for new lows in gold. I don’t see that at all. They are out of touch.

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        If you have cash and dont want to be too heavily into Energy , might want to try the commodities that I’ve been charting.

        VALE , SID, CLF, etc look to also be starting ther next leg higher ( And CRB)

        Yes, VALE was up 10% – but if you didnt buy the dip, you might want to catch it low in the rip. I think its going to $6 minimum.

        CLF has just started to move.

        • Cason
          Cason says:

          Hey Alex, thanks for taking the time to write! I’ve got good news, I own both CLF and VALE right now!! Had to do something while waiting on miners! 🙂
          Was starting to get bored like some of the others, but not anymore. CLF entry wasn’t great, but am up from Fri. In VALE a bit below 4, up 15-16% or so. 🙂
          Have enough cash left for 2nd half of energy positions as necessary. If we get a dip to add next week, will be waiting!

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