April 1 – Jobs

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The Jobs report was released and I dont really see anything that I didn’t expect at this point. Since it is the last trading day of the week, I’m just here to do a quick review.

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SPX –  This was the chart in the Thursday report. I expected a pullback with that toppy candle Wednesday. It may not be a huge pullback, I do expect another run higher in the next daily cycle.

SPX 3-30

 

This is also WEDNESDAYS chart.  I am just posting a quick  review so we can see what we were expecting –  A PULL BACK in many sectors.  OIL to $34 or $36 is fine.WTIC 3-30

GOLD & MINERS

GOLD 3-30

GDX 3-30

 

I’m posting the WEDNESDAY charts just so you can quickly scroll up & see expectations as the day rolls on,  and also to give the group a fresh new comments section.  I know some like to share ideas and thoughts,  so this can be a clean slate for Friday 🙂

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Let me add this .   I was going to put these in the weekend report,  but I will just post the idea here for now.

MOST/ MANY  here are waiting for this pullback in Miners. A buying opportunity.  The Miners aren’t really co operating,  they are strong.    I have, however,  seen a dip into a DCL pick up momentum and selling becomes pretty strong in Miners as the daily cycle moves on, so I stay patient for now. I wanted to share this 1 idea to give you all a visual of what I am feeling we could see.  Only time will tell, but lets prepare for a pullback and buying opportunity.  1 example below and I will add a bit more in the weekend report .

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EXK for example.  I can see that it should drop . I do see a triangle/flag,  but the last 2 consolidations were sideways boxes,  so picture one here too. Could we drop to the 50sma Near $2.20 or even $2.00?  Yes.  COULD WE drop to the red dotted support? YES.

EXK 3-31

 

EXK WKLY –  A drop to $2 would be great for Long Term buy & Hold investors,  if this bull market in Gold / Miners has returned.  And I think it has.

EXK WKLY

 

Have  a great Friday trading and a great weekend!

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~ALEX

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So far, it looks as expected , even with NATGAS Green  🙂

HEAT MAP

19 replies
        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          Yes, but I’m not buying OIL/ Energy stocks until OIL puts its low in place.
          I think they can rebound after that.

          LGCY had a decent mini run back toward the 50sma, but was stopped at a downtrend line and the 10sma.

          Refresh for a chart

          The company has debt, but it made a strong run out of lows , and so I would think that it could do so again , when Oil finds its DCL.
          .

  2. Shermo
    Shermo says:

    thanks CF! yep, if we can get to the 200 sma on Gold then I can become a buyer wherever the junior miner index is at that point.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      stupid miners, pullback darn it. COME ON!! Every time I owned in the past they’d go in the garbage. The first rally I’ve missed in 4 years and they can’t retrace 23 or 38%? Garbage!!

    • Peter Castillo
      Peter Castillo says:

      For all those interested in Bio’s. This is who I follow for options info. Just posted a piece about the recent action in XBI options and other Bio names. Hope you don’t mind me posting someone else’s stuff here Alex, but I think it’s a beneficial read.

  6. kathleenchow
    kathleenchow says:

    Alex, FCX seems like notable laggard this morning. Any commentary or thoughts you might have? Also, I guess you’ll be looking into bios more in the weekend report, given how LABU is on fire now:) Looking forward to reading it and thanking you for all that you do here.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Hi Kathleen

      It just still seems to be consolidating the big gains it made from $3.50 to $11.50

      It is somewhat of a Copper / Gold mining company , and COPPER has sold off for the past 7 days or so, so it is actually holding up fairly well. ( I will have it in the wkend report).

      Yes – LABU , IBB, XBI look very good today and for the past couple of days. They have moved above the 50sma with nice volume and that adds to bullishness. The set up is a bullish set up, however…

      When I write about it , I do have to point out that it is still inside of a base. When a stock or etf trades inside of a base, it can be range bound. Until it breaks out ( Which it could next week), it can be stuck in a trading range.

      • kathleenchow
        kathleenchow says:

        Thanks Alex. I’m just holding a 1/2 position breakeven in FCX thus far and waiting to add more (but not sure where lol!). My CLF and VALE are also 1/2 positions, but in the green (fingers crossed that they’re finally ready to move as they’ve held above the 200ma fairly well). Can’t wait to read the weekend report:)

  7. Cason
    Cason says:

    Seeing lots of comments on LABU below, GL to all. I sold out near today’s highs. I had already taken a round trip in that bad boy and we had 2 big up days in a row headed into a weekend with a 3x ETF up about 13%. I took the cash. Will stalk re-entry points next week.

    Pete, did you hold?

    • Peter Castillo
      Peter Castillo says:

      Yes I did. We got the close above the 50 sma on big volume, plus the amount of money being put into call options on Bio’s is screaming institutional buying. MACD pulled together and now trending higher again, and looks like it wants to move above the zero line. Strong close to the week. It all looks good for more upside. But as always, with tech. analysis, this all can change monday! I use a CCI reading of 50, to confirm the move above the 50 day, and that also is confirming the move, so as long as we hold above the 50, and CCI 50 holds as well, I’m in. What about miners? Incredible! I added some TAHO today when it was down like 4% at the open. Bounced at the 50 week sma. Cut some of the hedges I had on miners. I could be wrong, but this has been a very bullish consolidation. Again, maybe it all falls apart monday! But A LOT of miners are showing possible weekly bullish flags. They have been “correcting” for a month, and any hit gets immediately bought. They’re making you chase!!!

  8. Mscrystal
    Mscrystal says:

    Back to work for work for me next week ,..so not much from me during trading hours (maybe on slow days… and lunch ) for the next two months… But a heads up that Yellen is speaking again on April 7, this time with Greenspan, Volcker, and Bernanke. GL to everyone

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