Watching The Pullbacks

Have you ever noticed that when we are waiting to see if a pull back presents a buying opportunity, it  feels like price just drips down in slow motion day after day , no matter how sweet it looks? I’m feeling that now 🙂  Lets review the markets and then check out a few areas of interest.

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SPX – No change from the last few reports

 

WTIC-  We did get our upside follow through after the Oil report today. Oil is no longer trapped under the 20sma, it is riding the 9 sma.  A Bullish change .

NATGAS – I am still Bullish on NATGAS and I think it should accelerate higher soon.  NATGAS inventory reports come out on Thursday.

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GOLD – I cant look at Golds chart and see Bullishness short term.  Even a pop to $1300 would likely pull back quickly. I would love to see a pullback to the 50sma / $1160 , as shown in yesterdays chart.

Gold From Yesterday. $1600 would help the C.O.T. too.

Many Miners just kept grinding higher and putting in reversals. See ABX, SA, NGD, ASM, and more. I dont think that its a buying opportunity, it’s just too late in the run to jump in risk/reward wise. We need a good pullback to clear sentiment and get price closer to that 200 sma.

 

I am going to throw this out there,  but it ‘bothers’ me to say it out loud. 

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 – GOLD bottomed with its ICL  on DEC 3rd.  Thats 3 months ago, it’s due for a correction.

 – MINERS bottomed with a shake out Jan 15. That could be  1 daily cycle. Hmmm.  When the 1st daily cycle is THAT strong, isnt the 2nd daily cycle usually a run higher?  Just thinking out loud.

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Lets look at some pull backs in process and maybe a few laggers that are setting up.

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I watched QTWW on March 4, a bullish set up with that MACD and tight base, etc.  It didn’t do anything when the other energy stocks ran ( possibly because this is clean energy I believe). 

QTWW  Just started to move today. It is actually a low risk buy with a stop under the 50sma.

I own PQ, and it is the one Energy stock that didnt rip higher for me.  To be fair, that doesn’t make it a lagger in anything other than perception. Why?

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  PQ ran from $0.38 to $0.66 last week. THATS 80%!!  I bought the break out.  Currently I see it as still acting correctly with a very low volume pull back. When it hits the 200sma , I will cash out with 100% gains.  ( He said hopefully).  The 50 sma is lower, so there may still be downside, my position is not that big.

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OAS – I need to say a lot about this one.

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1.  This ran from $4 to almost $8 a week ago.  Thats no slouch. This may have been a buy today as it back tested the break out. 

2. It may just run higher from here or it may continue sideways consolidating.

3.  Caution : The 50sma is almost a buck lower and it could go there, how do you play this?

4. I’d take a small position in case it runs higher, and add on a light volume dip if it tags the 50sma.

WLL –

Write this down in your notebook with a tiny star next to it. Why?  It ran from $4 to $8 in January and it just ran from $3.35 to $8.49 with HUGE volume and no one noticed?  To me, that established the ‘base’,  not the potential upside.    If it flags & drops to the 50sma at $6, I will buy it quickly. I may take a position anyways, after I research their earnings , etc.   I haven’t had time to do that tonight.

 

I currently own LGCY and still love it. It didnt fill the gap today, but it held the 50sma. I will add if it fills the gap.

I bought it before the break out of the bull wedge. This could run to the 200 sma at $4 , 300%?. (or it could go bankrpt – just to keep it in perspective ) 🙂  .

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SGY – Twice now this has dropped toward the 50sma and recovered. It could be bought with a stop under the 50sma.

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This was my chart of WPX a week ago, a buy as it broke out .  It then ran to $6.68 and now is consolidating under resistance.  It could just break through and run. It looks strong.

WPX – March 7 and it is going sideways at this resistance.

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CLD –  This is funny.  I forgot to post this chart 2 days ago, somewhat of a lagger for us spoiled %-Gain hunters.  Yes, its up 100%, but it took a while  🙂  Today it is exactly the same price at $2.10. It looks ready to break out soon.

So those are some ideas that are shaping up.  As I mentioned in the last report,  Miners and Commodities have been running for around 2 months, they could use consolidation.   ENERGY is just starting and “might” have 1, 2, 3, maybe 5 day pullbacks. 

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Lets switch to one other area mentioned in  prior reports. 

SHIPPERS

I mentioned these for your notebook  ( You do take notes, right? )

So lets review a few of these…

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STNG – Still bullish, even though it took a drop Tuesday, it recovered today closing above the 50sma.  ( This could run from here) . This is what “coiling’ under the 50sma looks like. It is building strength to break out. Today it may have broken out.  It’s a buy. 

TOO –  This is still basing out, but the moves are big. It is also coiling around the 50sma and I believe it is setting up to make a run higher. 

 

SBLK –  As you know, I love those long flat bases after capitulation.  Sometimes I just buy them and wait, the run higher can be rewarding. This has almost tripled, and is pulling back to possible support. 

Before closing, let me point something out using the chart above and the first POP from the base.  I will zoom in on it.

SBLK –  I want you to see the original  POP,  and then a drop. THEN the run

LGCY –  The POP and then the drop. maybe a little lower? This is how they often play out at lows.

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So things are moving right along with the various pull backs. I expect one in the SPX soon.  Oil looks good and NATGAS looks good.   Gold and Miners look Bullish,  but we have to expect a pullback sooner than later.

 

The set ups in this report can offer a low risk entry  ( with stops somewhat below).  The only problem is that these OIL and Shippers stocks move big in both directions, so I would start small if you enter any pullbacks and keep an eye on them.  Commodities are lining up nicely too. These areas all remain bullish so far.     I wont have a Friday report unless something major changes on  Thursday.  This report should cover both Thursday and Friday trading and expectations.  NATGAS should stay Bullish , based on the chart.   If I see anything outstanding, of course I will put one together.

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Enjoy your Thursday & Friday Trading and also have a great weekend!

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~ALEX