Lets Wrap This Week Up

Another great week of trading!   Lets wrap this week up…

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SPX –  Will Friday s Job report end the recent rally? We are approaching resistance.

I’ve been expecting the USD to roll over.  It may have started, we’ll watch for follow through.  That drop likely helped  Gold today.

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I have received several NATGAS inquisitions this week.   It may be bottoming here, but I’d wait for a break higher first.

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GOLD !  Yes, Gold broke out and with some follow through,  this is round 2 🙂

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GOLD broke out of the Flag today.  Gold has worked off its overbought condition. We may be on our way to the  $1300 area, if it is not a head-fake.  I think it should have follow through.

I posted this Feb 24. Its not out of the question if this gets going. For now, 1 step at a time.

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SILVER – I used the SLV here,  is now oversold and almost breaking out. Silver stocks are little rocket-ships now.  Silver could finally break out & run strongly.

Miners are breaking out all over the place from recent consolidations, and if this Gold break out has follow through, they could get ridiculously overbought.   They are a buy if you dont own them.  

I cant post 100 charts, so I will just post a few  examples of what to look for, and we want to see Golds break follow through too.

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EXK –  Break out.  So you buy the break out and put a stop in a reasonable area.  Price should not re-enter the break out. See also AG and SLW a bit further down.

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TGD –  This was my March 1 chart when it was 23 cents.  It is 26 now. Will it go to 30 cents? Most likely, but…

TGD – The bigger picture picture for some of these, if we are in a recovery picture, is very promising.

ABX – See how these lage bases can move a stock back to prior highs?  That is why we say that bear markets turning to bull markets leave the nervous buyers behind if they dont catch the lows. With that in mind…

AG-  I’d buy the break out ( Unless you bought the consolidation)  and just keep an eye on it as it moves higher.  “Stop” either below the consolidation, or if that is too much loss, stop out if it re-enters the consolidation. See SSRI, PAAS, etc

SLV –

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And the energy sector was Electric today, many of the picks (maybe all) from the past week were up big –  some were up 20-30% yesterday and today. 

Mini-Lesson about these lows

Let me start by stating  this important point. Just like with X, AKS, VALE, etc, the stocks that POP 10-20% off of consolidation or lows are buys.

Do not think  “I cant chase it, its up 13%“.    I have entered stocks that were up 10% off the lows and they can end the day up 25% , and they can just keep running another 20%+ the next day.  Really?   

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Example:

REXX- I pointed this out yesterday. Up 35%, but I was saying it is just starting.

REXX today.  Would buying REXX as it broke upward yesterday be chasing it? No, its up 40% today!

So what looks good now, possibly ready to launch?  ( keep in mind some have debt, financial problems, but even those ones are popping. proceed with caution). These are still best for those able to monitor their positions.

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PQ – Ready to break out.

ERF from yesterday – I still like it

HK –  SWEET FLAT BASE.  This could get crazy.

LGCY –  Lagging, up 13% today, but still looks ready to go further.

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For those that do not like cheap stocks under $1, I like this stock longer term.

And I still like MRO’s potential and a few others.

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And I pointed out RRC  a few days ago. Moving higher and could just break out & run.

I also wanted to show you this.  I recommended this a while ago and it has fulfilled the initial target, yet  I wouldn’t sell this and I’ll tell you why.  ( Many Miners and Steel stocks have blown right by initial targets by the way). 

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I had the privilege of  meeting a famous trader back in 2002 or 2003.  He taught me this lesson. He would look at a chart like this and say , ” Do you see that Fire Pole where price dropped down? I look for those.  I dont expect a of of resistance to hold price down when it gets there, so dont sell too early.”  We were discussing Miners at the time, but I treat it the same here. If price gets to $7, it could move right to $9.  I actually find it a bit hit or miss  (70% maybe?), but worth noting.

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So we have had an excellent couple of weeks of trading. Trust me, it is NOT always like this. There are times when it is best to be patient and wait for trades to come to you.   It drives people crazy and many feel that they are missing out when they arent trading (  I can get that way as a trader),  but a true bullish set up takes time.   It is always best to wait for pullbacks to present opportunity. Right now we still seem to be having very trade-able moves out of the recent lows.

Miners may have consolidated for another run higher.  Energy is popping up off of the lows, and Commodity stocks like Steel and aluminum have been experiencing blow off type moves. A prolonged pullback will eventually come, so enjoy this while you can.  Have a nice  Friday trading and have a great weekend! As always, thanks for being here.

~ALEX

Sidenote:

I posted  TWTR & GPRO in yesterdays report.   Then I added this in the comments today. I like to see strong volume after the consolidation, but TWTR volume died down a bit by the end of the day.   GPRO volume was ok,  but TWTR may stall before attempting the run higher, unless it gets a nice surge of volume Friday.  It could ride down the 50sma too.