1-23-2016 WEEKEND REPORT

The weekend report will discuss the changes that we have expected for months, and how we now see those changes taking place.  Also, as mentioned in the last report,  the recent sell off is now changing into a Long position, but for how long?  To the charts! 🙂

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SPX – On Thursday, Jan 21st  I mentioned that a swing low was in place  ( Bullish for going long).  It is safer to wait for follow through with a confirmation break above the 9 sma.

SPX –  We had that confirmation on Friday.  For traders, going long SSO, TQQQ,IWM, and various stocks was in place.

But please,  lets not forget the Big picture too…

 

(Click on any chart to expand)

SPX prediction –  I have been saying since the Spring of 2015 that the markets looked like they were gradually putting in a top.   A rising wedge was the first clue,  then certain indicators were pointing out a top.  The markets did top in May 2015, but what a long process this topping action was!  On Dec 17 I repeated that the markets looked toppy  & weak going into the new year. Two of my personal indicators ( bottom windows) showed the weakness in our bounce after the summer sell off. 

SPX WEEKLY –  For the big picture we have a break down & possible H&S   top.  SO I AM SAYING that I expect a bounce here for a few weeks, but lets keep the big picture in mind too , as we play the long side.This may just be a multi week bounce.

SPX – Do you recall this chart in Sept?  I said that it would take months, but that I  should watch for a Monthly drop and a cross of the 10 & 20sma.  That is about to happen now, so  let me show you another Bearish long term chart. 

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SPX –  This chart clearly shows when the last 2 Bull Markets changed into Bear markets. This may be the clearest reminder in my report.   A tag of the overhead M.A. occurred next and then the drop continued.  Note:  In 2011 we dropped and recovered, but every other time was when the Bull ended.  We see the same thing happening right now. SPX 2000 will be interesting, be cautious if you are long and we approach that area.

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USD – I see weakness, unless this can really POP & Run.  There is room to go higher, lets look at a longer time frame…

USD WKLY  –  I’ve mentioned a double top as possible.  This Wkly chart could do the trick.   

 

On Dec 4th ,  I called for a possible Bullish CUP & HANDLE to form here at the highs.  That MIGHT be what we are seeing in the chart above ,  but honestly it looks weak at this point.  I will have to watch it further and see if it develops with  weakness or strength.  Currently I still see weakness  ( Double top).

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4 Views of Oil-  Past & present

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# 1 – In November I called for a possible long term $26.09 wkly target in Oil,  when it was above $40.

#2 – 

We also watched this WEDGE, because a break out from the apex ( Or drop between $25 &  $30 and then a break out)  could lead to the bottom.

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#3 –  With recent lows at  $27.56 ,  could that be THE low.  Possibly.   It is very oversold and this looks like a definite low, with a false break down and that strong Divergence.  Yes – This COULD BE THE LOWS.   However, We need to keep in mind that we are a tad early for an intermediate CYCLE low,  so 1 more daily cycle could bounce & dip into a final low. 

#4 – I am trying to think several steps ahead here just in case.   So if we get a bounce here and it rolls over,  you could still have a break out & back test.  We will remain cautious at lows, but going long here has been a good set up in Energy stocks.

WTIC WKLY BOUNCES – The bounce/ Rally from the ICL was strong,  the next bounce from the daily cycle low (DCL) was up & sideways.  The next bounce was weak,  so will this be a strong rally or final weak bounce?  We can look for signs moving forward.   That 10SMA on a weekly chart is a big test. 

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 NATGAS – 

This was my daily chart in Thursdays report. It is from Wednesday.

 

NATGAS  BULLISH VIEW  –  Warning, if this is wrong,  that MIGHT be  a bear flag that just formed.  Any long position in  UNG, UGAZ, etc  would have a stop if NATGAS dropped below ‘C’   (or roughly $2.00).

NATGAS –  Further bullish possibilities , a break out & back test.

NATGAS – This would be an eventual rise to former highs. It will NOT unfold this smoothly, it is just to point out the bullish case that a final low may be in place.

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GOLD, SILVER, MINERS

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GOLD ‘s COT is still fine.  The daily set up remains Bullish,  but the delay is brutal.  Gold is on day 5 of a new daily cycle.  I need to see a pop higher very soon .

 

GOLD WKLY – looking at the weekly chart,  you can see that the run higher in this phase of the game  (ICL to top)  tends to be GOOD – EXCEPT FOR MARCH – MAY 2015 WEAK .   So far this is rather weak, but it still has time to become a  Good run.   Gold is oversold & still above the 10 MA, so that is is bullish.

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 GOLD –   This looks like it should Run Higher soon.  We are closer to the Buy point.  So Gold is still  oversold & Bullishly aligned,  while breaking higher . $1140 target?

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SILVER – This looks like a large base, but being rejected on the break out attempt is not good.  Silver looks  50/50 to me at this point. The  MACD is bullish.

 

SO I flipped to SIL  to check out the Silver Miners ETF.   It remains very oversold and looks like it would POP if Silver went higher.   If silver dropped, this could be a bear flag.  50 / 50 here too really.   Lets check Miners.

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GDX actually looks BULLISH and ready to run higher.

GDX  DAILY –  A break down and recovery. Oversold.    I hate the volume, but that can change.

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GDXWKLY – This simple weekly chart looks quite Bullish.  Its a double bottom with a weekly reversal candle.  That light volume that I hated on the daily chart actually caused the ‘ Weekly Test” of the prior lows to happen  on light volume.  That can be bullish.  I remain long Miners.

GDX WKLY –  another view showing that the weekly new lows looked like a shake out.

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GDXJ WKLY – sellers drying up.

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GDXJ DAILY –  On Wednesday  I pointed out the fact that we could linger at lows and then take off upside.

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GDXJ broke the trend line ,  now we want to see a 10 sma break too.

GDXJ WKLY –   I accidentally drew 2 weekly GDXJ charts,  but saw similar things.    Looks like a shake out,  reversal candle –   where selling pressure is getting very light.  

GDXJ –  A break & Close above $20 in the future looks like the start of a bull run.

 

  SO I am bullish short term in many areas.  The General Markets should bounce and even run for a couple of weeks,  but I will be watching it as it gets to overhead resistance.  OIL  has put in a low.  Energy stocks are popping like crazy.  Is it a Final low  (ICL) or a daily cycle low  (DCL) ?   I’m watching that 20sma again?  Time will tell.  Miners look ready to pop & run higher from a double bottom with a weekly reversal candle. Look at the chart of GDXJ  above.  Stops could be placed right below the weekly candles lows. This week looks bullish in many areas, I look forward to seeing how things act from here. I think we are seeing set ups for long trades in many sectors.    At times we get that initial  POP and roll to a higher low ,  so I will  look for set ups like that going forward too.

 

~ALEX

 

I received an email about  SA.   This was one of my most bullish Miners this summer, and it was acting correctly from $3 to $10.   What is going on lately???  

Well, after such a huge run up, it may be getting a semi-normal pull back with a little panic in there too.   We got the 61.8% retrace.  We are on a support area  ( Yellow cloud) .  We are oversold.   Is this going to move higher if GDX / GDXJ  pop?  Or is that a bear flag forming the last 3 days?  We’ll have to wait & see,  but lets go to the bigger picture too…

 

 

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SA WEEKLY –   You can see that the huge move from $3 to $10 was nothing in the big picture.  This stock could return to $37 some day, and this was part of the bottoming process.  Rather amazing looking at it this way.    Bottoms are a process and sometimes they go straight up,  other times they ‘Bottom out” in whatever way they wish. This weekly has more time to get oversold, but I pointed out that a sideways move can accomplish that too.

 

 

MGN – Bullish Pop