It would be good to look back at the past weeks activities and see how things are stacking up.
TRAN WKLY – This surely hasn’t looked bullish as the trend changed. The Tran was rejected at the 10 ma this week again.
SPX – The SPX has also tagged the 10 ma and dropped down. I’ve expected a test of the high volume August lows, but then we may bounce around a little more. These are choppy markets and are not easy to trade in my opinion.
The VIX found support and may be signaling further downside in the markets too
USD – We could still see the dollar rise to tag that down trend line, but at this point it looks weak and stalled at the upper B.B.
WTIC – Long term support area is all over the $30’s area. We may have found support for price.
WTIC – The oil weekly chart shows strong divergence at recent lows. 5 weeks of closing at the same price can be a bullish consolidation, but need to break out first.
WTIC – As I have pointed out recently, the daily chart gets a bit tricky. I saw a Bull Flag break out in Mid Sept, but it has become a larger triangle now. We saw this in Feb and dropped for one last shake out, so I am watching this area for now. Most Energy stocks are not showing strength at this time.
CRB – Weekly reversal pushing on the 10ma.
NATGAS WKLY – Neutral for now
GOLD,SILVER, & MINERS
Gold should continue to move higher for the 2nd daily cycle in Gold. I am a little concerned that Silver and Miners are not strongly leading the way. We need to watch this as the week moves forward.
GOLD – Last week I said that I wanted to see a break out from this pattern. That has not happened yet.
So far, we have moved to the top trend line and I expect a break out this week. I would think that we should break the purple line this week too if the bullish bias plays out.
GOLD DAILY – This shows us the cycle count and we should see the 10sma hold as support or there is weakness in Gold. We are on day 11 and we are expecting a break above The Sept 24 highs, since that daily cycle was Right Translated.
SILVER WKLY – I need to see silver take off higher. It usually does in the 2nd daily cycle. If this is not a big week for Silver, we need to be cautious.
GDX WKLY – We did not see a close above $14.04 and this week we want to see a break out above the resistances shown. The start of the 2nd daily cycle in December ( Blue Arrow) lagged for a couple of weeks and then it ripped higher. We will zoom in on the next chart.
GDX DAILY – This does look very similar to the run up in Dec. Price stalled at the bottom but did not break the lows again. The pink arrows show where we are at similar time periods. We will zoom in even further in the following chart.
GDX NOVEMBER TO FEB. – IN November we had the first daily cycle. In December the 2nd daily cycle started and did not get running strong until around day 11. We are on day 11 now. This is basically a “Do or Die” area, because a daily cycle that fails usually starts to top around day 9 or 11 or so. A strong 2nd daily cycle should take off higher soon.
GDX Now – similar to the above chart, we have not moved strongly higher as of day 10. In the above chart we dropped below the 10sma intraday on day 11, but closed higher with a reversal. Today is day 11.
So that is how things are stacking up. The equity markets reversed lower on their weekly charts and may see follow through to the downside as the Vix rises. OIL and NATGAS look rather neutral at this point. We have expectations for Gold Silver and the Miners to move higher this week due to their daily cycle counts. These are our expectations, but if Silver and the Miners do not show strength this week, it might be indicating that buyers are not there and shorting the rest of the investor cycle may even have its benefits . Lets see what happens, right now the bias is bullish. I am long Miners. Hope all had a restful weekend, thanks for being here at Chartfreak.
~ Robert Alexander (Alex)
Can We Go Shopping? 
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I added a line to your Crude chart. Refresh.
Failed breakdown? If it is (biiiig if) failed breakdowns/ups can cause huge reversals.
nice… it ‘looks like’ crude completed 5of5 now… https://www.tradingview.com/x/XawLSMTk/
i was looking for 44.26. butt.. looks like it has completed the wave sequence…
up up and away?
Oil be happy if it is
cute… ha!
Slick huh?
Slick, but a little crude too 😉
..yes.. u r
Just a barrel of laughs
well well well
what was the swear word in the 90s version of Battlestar Gallactica?
…
L.. O .. L (well well well)
Frack!
Oh, no, maybe not the 90s version. I don’t know, didn’t watch it.
It was that, indeed.
ha!
Actually there was no 90s version. I just looked it up. So just for the record (because it’s very important!) there was one in 1978 and then in 2003-2009, so I assume the latter is what you were referring to, and the one I thought of.
Oh Frack!
You’re right of course.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b025b6c56d4fc1df9401941db58d2db5808cc15985486ac078a8530bdfef9520.gif
… giggle … ur just a gas this am jd…;o)
Alex…. I’m amazed how you analyse the PM, it’s explained so well. I have never seen this with other subscriptions. Keep going so, and many Thanks Alex.
Things a looking hideous in GOLD currently. Must turn soon or else.
Agree in part Bill especially that it would be good to see it hold and turn around this level (1127). I have it testing the 10 ema on my daily chart, so that’s fine as long as it holds/bottoms close to here. I also reasons to expect a minor peak on 24 Sep when we hit 1156 and it did indeed top. On my 4 hour chart it also looks like it completed a first minor 5 wave impulse up, which I would have as a larger wave 1. So far we have made a possible a-b-c minor correction (wave 2 ?) which has just tested a 50% retracement at 1127. So I would respectfully disagree that gold looks hideous…at least right now…but would ideally like to see it bottom and turn again from this general area just like you. But I don’t play any leveraged products in gold or miners so maybe feel a little more relaxed about these shorter term moves in that regard but let’s see what today brings and judge things again then. But so far at least I’m still watching closely for gold to show hints of bottoming again in this area. We shall see!! 🙂
I posted this chart in our report. The target for support would be where Gold went todays so far. Not so hideous, but obviously we want Miners & Silver to pick it up or else weakness is the call
I’d seen your chart as well Alex and knew we were definitely both on the same’ song sheet’. Always good to see!! I’m still feeling very relaxed about gold/silver and possibly a little too optimistic but totally agree that it would be good to see it turn around these levels. For a variety of reasons and very much in line with your own thoughts I thik we could see another and possibly panicky downdraft in general equity markets in the very near future. I’m not sure how that will affect the miners but I suspect it won’t do gold/silver any harm! It could be an ‘interesting’ week in all kinds of ways!! 🙂
GDXJ filled that gap this a.m. & reversed ( hopefully for the day) and GDX is down at its gap. Both now below the 50sma , I want to see them recover soon. Gold looks ok to me, but I really have my eyes on SILVER & MINERS here.
Silver is definitely acting weaker than gold right now but I’m pretty certain it did in a very similar way as we moved from 1st DCL to 2nd DC last Dec/Jan as well and then it had a spectacular run in the 2nd DC. But there were definitely one or two false starts first just to try and confuse everyone! I remain hopeful…at least at this time!! 🙂 But ultimately the price action will reveal all!! Thanks as always though for another VERY useful report. I really enjoy your writing style. 🙂
Thank You Chris
lol.. hideous? i
dk … IFFF my count is correct…
i kinda think it is the ‘c’ leg of the abc (4) … moving in step with the previous 4…
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ht0hJdex/ here’s the close up
here is expanded view … what do you guys think??? ive spent a gross amt of hours on this.. but im feeling like this correction is allllmost over… it appears to be in 4 of the 5th and final wave …
https://www.tradingview.com/x/MM9TIPaJ/
it does look likee an abc zigzag so far.
if not, its only 123, with 45 yet to come
hourly RSI appears to have touched base… need reversal now
Is there a relationship between A and C in length? FIBO number, etc?
Sure. Chart looks ‘ok’ but my trading account looks ‘hideous’.
I dont like GDX hanging below the 10sma and 50sma after gaining those moving averages last week.
We have gaps down below and it might be a place that GDX falls to. I dont like the weakness this late into a 2nd daily cycle.
Some Miners look fine, others look weak.
Anyone using leverage may want to think about closing it, this sideways chop cuts leverage holders up..
For example, look at SAND, EGI, SA, RIC, NGD, NG, AEM , AU , etc – Not so bad from August lows and some remain above the 50sma . Even TGD is fine.
Then I look at other miners’ charts , some are breaking down below the 10 & 50sma and it has me a bit concerned about a recovery
Fairly low volume, but we are melting down to new lows pretty much minute by minute. General markets also in freefall. I guess that is not happening? I just don’t understand. I don’t. We had this pegged and with market turmoil, how can gold not find a bid? I just don’t get it.
IF one is bullish on silver & miners (I am), this seems like a good place to buy with a close stop. One could use the bottom green channel line to decide on a stop loss – although silver can go schizo for a mo’ and spike below before going up. I now have 40% of my primary account in GDX/J, so will pass
1-Hour Silver
(click on link & click on chart if care to peek)
http://tos.mx/VrHl1b
Promising
Big picture again:
If Yen breaks up that could be explosive and a failed breakdown. Would expect it to be hugely bearish general stocks. Refresh.
Alex,
Could this just be a half cycle low in gold and gdx…if so…does it usually fall below the 10dma. What behaviour should we see as opposed to a failed daily cycle. Just wondering what your ( experienced) gut is telling you. thx
Curt, I’m really struggling here, too. What if I bail right at the lows and realize my losses? What if I stay on the train and the next exit is new lows and miner bankruptcy?
I’m hoping this is just to scare those who jumped in last Thurs.
Man, if you grabbed late day Thurs on Nuggers? You’ve had your face melted off. (I didn’t, thank goodness).
Let’s hope for turnaround tuesday…..
Yep. Praying for that – it’s about all I have left. I can tell you that I am done trading these until we can confirm gold in a bull (could be months to years) or gold goes sub-1000 (in which case I likely won’t be able to constrain myself). But I’m done with the falling miner knife, just doesn’t work.
I think we all wondering the same thing. This doesn’t feel right at all.
There is only 1 thing I know. I have lost a crapton of money on this ‘ICL’. Looking back with hindsight on the daily, the normal behavior of shorting the pops would have been fairly lucrative.
If course, if I flip short now, it would reverse immediately. Maybe I should do that to help you guys out!
I’m now also worried about overhead supply. Anyone who got in recently is now underwater and would be happy to get out anywhere even near breakeven. If I even get close, I’ll bail – don’t care about potential gains, just want to play Defense now.
The problem for me is that GOLD could fit that scenario, but Miners are just doing these mini pop & drops. Instead of reacting like the 2nd daily cycle in DEC 2014- they are acting like the sideways run higher in GDX/ GDXJ during the March ICL and onward into May. THAT was not a good trade. Especially those choosing leverage,they got whip sawed in & out day after day.
The good trade came in May when you could go short. JDST & DUST eventually rocketed from that point on.
I can’t believe I let myself lose my shorts last week. I could really use these this week. (thought Maria might get a rise out of this comment).
is this do or die in GDXJ?
dunno just how much wiggle room to give it.
they always seem to overshoot the trendline for the shakeout
grrr 🙁
HArd to believe that NUGT was trading at $50 last August.
so bloody out there. Yikes.
Meanwhile, in the land of cigarettes. Green and steady.
(why are we trying so hard with miners?>????)
(refresh for bullish chart)
ooo lah lah…
Gold can’t cross its deadly 111 EMA. Simple.
(refresh for chart)
GDX weekly is not looking bullish. Be careful of falling knives….
Miners will go with the bath water.
Ok, need to work on the labeling, but hopefully this is still readable. I used BAS but the concept probably apply to many other in the energy field. Well, maybe the oil low was this summer, in August. Then wave 1 up, now working on a-b-c wave 2 corrective move? BAS now below 61.8% retrace, looks like it has a guaranteed date with double bottom near 3.1. Lower BB might save it from straight free fall. But once corrective wave is over some of these may be ready to run again? I’d continue to watch the general market and crude – if neither firms up, BAS is likely going nowhere, wave theory be darned.
Thoughts?