A quick look at the markets and a brief discussion on shopping
On Sept 22 – I said that I was looking for a possible ‘Test’ of the break down and then a drop.
SPX – Reversal candle. Maybe that ‘Test’ comes now.
The USD had a reversal candle too. I’ve been pointing out weakness for weeks, but it may pop to the trend line , since it appears to have started a new daily cycle.
WTIC – Why didn’t I call this report “REVERSALS” ? I’ve been bullish on Oil. THEN I didn’t like OIL as of yesterday, because it broke down below the 50sma and Energy stocks looked weak. Thursday we had a reversal at the 50 % Fib and many energy stocks reversed too. It may be bullish after all, but let it prove itself a bit, or tight stop under Thursday.
If you read the comments section below the reports during the day, you saw that JD posted this . I wasn’t watching OIL on that time frame and that proved to be intra-day support. Thx JD.
NATGAS – I was watching these 2 areas for possible support the other day. Let me guess, a reversal?
So everything reversed higher today . Everything looks like a possible buy, with a stop right below. I have NEVER said that in my life, so somethings got to give, right?? 
Everything cannot be a buy, so some areas may need a bit more time to reveal intent.
GOLD SILVER MINERS
I loved today’s action right out of the gate. Yesterday in the comments I said that the gap up in GDX didn’t feel real. Things were missing. Today, I mentioned just a few minutes into trading that this move was probably real. I have seen these moves so often ( the ones that fail and the ones that are real) , and you see definite differences. on Real moves, Volume swells in GDX , various indicators that I watch line up on a 3 day 30 minute, 5 day hrly , etc etc etc. I posted this comment 7 minutes into the trading day , but I didnt send an alert, because you don’t get real confirmation until price holds and daily chart are complete. I may attempt to buy without confirmation, but I cant recommend it here.
GOLD – Bullish follow through and volume. Sept 11 was the dcl as pointed out here. We are on day 9.
GDX & GDXJ – Lows were Sept 11. This looks very much like Dec 2014 DCL , as pointed out in Wednesdays and Thursdays reports.
DEC 2014 – Maybe this gives you an idea of where we could be. It wont be straight up, but this move went higher for weeks.
I just want to put up some charts , but many have their own lists of Miners and Energy. I am focusing on Miners for now. Some may already have positions. Charts of RIC, SA, NGD, etc should not have been stopped out from the dcl of Sept 11, but other Miners dipped deeper. Lets review…
NG – I pointed out that this one was holding up over the 50sma 2 weeks ago. Nova golds lows are back at Nov 2014. It is a buy upon this break out with a stop at the lower trend line.
SVLC didnt break Sept 11 lows, but did drop below its 10sma yesterday. It regained the 50sma and was up 13% today. It can be bought here, it looks set to continue higher.
EGO – Lows on Sept 11 and held the 10sma on the pullback. Buy here or a break above the 50sma.
AUY – Inverse H&S. It can be bought here. Even a quick trip from $1.70 to $2.00 ( the 50sma) is almost 20%. It would likely break out & run higher than that in a 2nd daily cycle.
EXK – had a small shake out below the trend line Sept 11. It can be bought here, I think it’s ready to break out, you can also wait for that .
CDE was up 13% today, and its still at the bottom. Buy a break out from the wedge or 50sma. Silver stocks often run well in the 2nd daily cycle..
I mentioned SWC as it reversed yesterday. Nice base. Start a position and add on a pullback , or just wait for a pullback if we get one.
TGD, AU – Bullish wedge patterns longer term. If these break out, it would be likely that they put their bottom in, but they MIGHT drop back and test them with a trend line tag later.
SSRI – The lows were also in long ago, last Novembers ICL , back tested at the March ICL. SSRI is now a strong looking base that could break out and start placing higher lows and higher highs.
CRK – This doesnt look like it moved much, but this reversal was 25% and is pushing right against the 10sma, it recovered the 50sma. This is a high risk stock because it moves fast, but it broke out from the wedge so you could buy with a stop back inside the wedge.
So almost all of the Miners look good for buying. Some set ups are shown above, but it also gives you an idea of what to look for. The daily cycle low was SEPT 11, so some that were not trying to trade in and out may still be holding, since those lows were not taken out in many cases. Remember that this is not the start of the 2nd daily cycle. Some have run up, pulled back ,and we are on day 9 . They should have another quick burst higher. We’ll have to watch things as they unfold, but a few quick trades may be profitable.
Energy stocks may perk up if OIL has some follow through. You can look at SGY,HK, REXX,, BAS, EXXI, LGCY, AREX, LPI, WTI, OAS, etc for reversals that may move higher and recover important support. I ‘ll have more in the weekend report. Have a good Friday and weekend!
~ALEX
Gold Is Jumping 
How Are Things Stacking Up?
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Hi Alex. Just to let you know that I found your report quite a few hours ago but so far at least I haven’t received your normal email alert. It may be just delayed but just to let you know in case there is another small ‘hiccup’ with the daily emails.
Thanks – I actually released it last night. I will look into that (again). Modern Technology 🙂
The link has just come through Alex!! 🙂
FYI The Hurst Cycle guys are saying a 20 week rally in NG starts around now (or yesterday).
On the fundamental side for gas – October should provide some clarity – traders use this month to start getting positioned during the fall injection season prior to the winter burn. Any upcoming cold weather forecasts could cause very large swings (gas is naturally volatile). The issue recently is that even when inventory reports have ‘beaten’ estimates, the injections versus the 5-yr. average storage amount is very high. Soo….keep an eye on the Baker-Hughes Friday rig reports for oil and gas. Very much like oil, unless the gas production slows down, this might have trouble moving much. If it shows signs of slowing and weather forecasts are cold? This could move up in a hurry.
Does anyone have the Open interest for natural gas. 2.50 I think we may be a little trouble
Refresh. OK?
Also this might be useful http://www.cotpricecharts.com/commitmentscurrent/
Thanks for the Friday post Alex!
eggcellent….. :o) luv when u mention ‘my favs’
ive been stalkn that CRK trade for days… finally ignited.. woop.
Goede morgen Maria, kun je het bovenstaande in het Nederlands vertalen?
Heel veel dank, en een goed weekend.
yes I can Geurt… lol (with an assist from google)
Thank you and same to you
Is that how all my posts look to you?? My apologies friend… ;o)
Yes, my dear….. I’m kidding with you.
All the best.
This has been a crazy/off week hasn’t it? Man, really glad my Fed Spidey Sense got me off of shorts before Yellen was yellin’. Thanks for the Friday report, def needed one. Honestly, I think we’ll be better off once we raise rates and Fed Watch can calm down and we can all get back to investing our way.
Once we raise rates?
I suspect we’ll see a unicorn before that happens. #turningjapanese as I say in Twitter.
Caveat: each decision will be a coin toss (as they may decide they need to save face) but we are pretty assured of very low rates for as long as you can imagine.
Here comes Maria s Unicorn Gif…I can see it now – lol
get outta my head CF
LOL
i had a comment box open to do jus that…and was interrupted….. giggle
JD, lots of thoughts and debates on this one, man. Some say, they may have actually missed the boat on their opportunity to raise rates. Technically speaking, I agree with the camp that thinks that equity bull market could end at some point in the not too distant future and then we have to ask can we tighten in a bear market? The most interesting idea is that I have seen is that they start to tighten and then get backed into “QE 4”.
I have two issues: 1) I think that the Fed is ‘screwing’ with the natural market at this point – as soon as we have things figured out my charts/technicals get trumped by a speech, a meeting, etc. and it kills some setups and sucks. 2) I don’t care about a 1/4 point. In fact I think we should do it. I only give pause with the potential rise of the dollar at a time when other governments (to include EUR, Japan, and China) are actively devaluing. We need to raise but how long can we go in direct opposition to the rest of the world economy and still remain sane and solvent?
Maria…if I recall correctly you were bullish oil yesterday thinking it was close to starting another move up!? That’s looking like a rather timely call right now up well over $1 from yesterday. 🙂 Unfortunatley I didn;t get my long back on after being stopped out earlier on Thursday! 🙁 Once bitten, twice shy and all that…or in my case twice bitten!! Lol
I am cautious with Oil…it looks so much like Feb in many many ways. The chart is like a twin, until it proves itself a bit more i.m.h.o.
I have to say, I’m with you Alex having been bitten twice recently!! Keeping an eye on it but like you would like to see a proper trend emerging before trying again. Although up nicely from yesterday I still have it within the boundaries of a larger consolidation pattern, so this move may just fizzle like so many others recently!
Even with the chart in my report, Oil dipped to the 50% and a reversal candle appeared. That is bullish, but the overall chart is basically neutral here. It could go either way and FEB looked similar ( and dropped). I am watching the ENERGY STOCKS for clues, the way we watch Miners for clues on Gold.
All very valid observations Alex and much appreciated. 🙂
But if Marias count is correct and oil takes off higher – we all have to send her a gas card for doubting it at all.
make that an airline ticket so I can go visit my international friends… ;o)
What is a ‘gas card’!? Or shouldn’t I ask!! 🙂
Maybe thats just in the U.S.?
Its a pre-paid gift card for Gas. We used them for certain visiting / traveling guest speakers or potential customers travel expenses at my old job for example. Take them to lunch and give them a $20 gas card for their troubles, even though they usually write off their expenses on the company.
it doesnt matter, Maria wants a flight to your Island 🙂
me putting my finger on my nose… LOL
Ah, got you. What you call gas in the US and put in your cars, we call petrol. Gas in the UK is a totally different fuel that is used for cooking or heating homes!! Lol And it will take two flights to get here! The first would be transatlantic to London. Then another flight on a MUCH smaller plane that can land on our small airfield. But overseas visitors always welcome! 🙂
Ah, A Petroleum card. Got it!
As for the flight, Just make sure its a 1 day round trip flight…she seems a little bit of an exhausting type day to me ( SSHHH) ; – )
hahahahahah….UAss
Is that United Air?
I’ve dropped a lot of our favorite energy names from my watchlist, unfortunately. But the few left? Stinking it up today. They are not showing an imminent move up in oil.
… what he said.. 😉 still watching.. That “5” throwover was ‘weak’ which means 2 things..
1. strong uptrend? idk about that – the ‘thrust’ up is quick & powerful – not lookn so powerful, is it?
2. we get one more quick zag down for a deeper throwover for ‘5’ ..
sooo .. im watching it — literally watching the candles paint the waves… (so cool – hope that never gets old) ;o)
No…not lloking so powerful now. Saw a nice little pop in oil, silver and gold an hour or so ago and all giving it back now. 🙁
right? and we KNOW that can only mean one thing…
IMPULSE waves -undeniable and EASILY recognized – annd 3 waves bring the heat that you can feel in your gut…. but at times 1 & 5 also do;
CORRECTIVE waves…long, ugggg, boring, chop u up & spit u out …..
soo – thus far (in my 5 whole mnths studying EWs) giggle — when I am studying a chart or in the middle of the action I have found that … if I HAVE to ask myself where we are in the wave sequence…. thennn I know it is NOT an impulse wave.. IMHO and IMNE (in my novice experience lol)
Would agrre on all counts. Stand back a little on oil and the action from 24 -31 Aug was clearly impulsive but as you say since then..” uggg, boring, chop u up & spit u out”!! I think I’ve managed to wipe most of the ‘spit’ off now!! Lo
Maria,you have only been studying EW 5 months? You seem like an expert with yrs of experience. Where did you start? Is there a book you could recommend? I have only watched a few short videos, so I have a very very limited exposure to some basics
yes..thank you – im blushing ;o) i was first drawn to EW theory via the social psychology aspect but then became captivated w/ the wave structures &Fibonacci sequence.. ahhh mazzzz innng… I have spent hundreds of hours studying -(sometimes all in one day) ha ha well it seems like it anyway.;o)
there are many excellent learning modules on youtube.. I only have 1 book that i use “Elliott wave principle” by Frost&Prechter. cant’ chat now but will definitely post some links for you.later tonite or this weekend.. ..:o)
eddy… these modules are chuck full of information – she goes fast but luckily you can just rewind or rewatch ;o) There are MANY modules… excellent content – my favorite videos.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kDivnU9to-s&list=FL6aDbGM84COvs3cG2DtkBYg&index=25
i also like this guy – The Chartist.. .no nonsense approach
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIIyevqaJoM&list=FL6aDbGM84COvs3cG2DtkBYg&index=31
Thank you very much Maria
My pleasure eddy.. enjoy 😉
Alex.. any concerns about lack of follow thru on GDX/GDXJ considering yesterdays volume.., or is this a good looking pullback?
Not really concerned, but follow through confirming a move is always more comfortable . Today is not over, so we could gap down and then close higher by days end too. Fridays have been running higher into the close lately, and I have said that that was positive since most would be selling into the weekend – so we could look for that buying later.
Also refresh for the chart below …see what I pointed out there.
UGH…
I did just see that gap from yesterday, and then saw the one on Aug 17th. That one got filled the next day with a pretty big drop at the 50sma.
you mean a drop at the 34sma on Aug17/18 (as on your chart)?
HEY! you’re right, I forgot to change that when looking at other charts. Using the 50sma GDX is actually back above it . I like that better 🙂
Who wants to give me a good entry point for JNUG? I’m thinking 8.09 at the 61.8% on the 1/2hr chart.
THAT MIGHT WORK.
This mornings low of $8.15 looked like GDXJ dropped toward the 50sma (almost make it) and reversed higher. Maybe it moves there again or even a drop on Monday may put it there, JNUG would reach the $8 area.
Drop Monday? Are you expecting 2 down days in a row on the 2nd DC?
Maybe…See Jan 2015. That was the 2nd daily cycle, so it can happen, but price doesn’t last long down there if things are playing out well.
I’d actually like to see today close higher 🙂
Bill, what did you end up doing? I’m grabbing JNUG here. I think we def go higher next week. Small drop Monday even OK, as long as don’t lose the 50 on high volume. We’re right on the 10-day. GDX actually stronger yesterday and today though.
Cason, I got in this morning at a less favorable price. 8.16 now is great.
I got 8.2. I took ‘market’ – didn’t want to risk a limit that didn’t hit since it was really late on Friday. I also added to my GLD long calls ($110 strike). Looking for a challenge to that 200-day in the next 2 weeks (currently $1180 – would be just around 113 in GLD). If we get that, I would be well in the money!!
GDXJ outlook, Missy Elliott chime in here!
WOW…that’s one long harmonica….
Oh yes, quite impressive. Butterfly perhaps
I am very pleased with it’s trajectory as well ……….
Is it possible that the US dollar cycle topped on day 3? That would be real good for gold, obviously.
From what I am looking at Bill , today is day 5 and it has the highest point with a spike , and reversed. We could top there on day 5 , or even drop day 6,7 and run up to day 9 top and still not be much higher than today. Similar to recent chop choppiness, and then drop to the daily cycle low.
And yes…any of those scenarios should be good for Gold.
Super light volume today after yesterday’s heavy volume. GDX over 100 million shares traded yesterday only 18+ million so far today. Seems like a good sign.
.. and refusing to close below the 10eMA on the hourly… maybe even signs of a reversal??
A few days ago we had a slamdown. Now, this looks like a nice controlled pullback. That’s my style. Feel good about buying here.
I’m showing only 21M a few minutes before close.
They’ll likely add about 10 million after the close
wow NADL …
For a larger cap stock liking the look of the AEM chart. Probably (hopefully) just one of many today. 🙂
Crazy day in the market. I wasn’t available most of the day and just caught up with today’s action. Pretty unsavory with the notable exception of Nike. How about that bio-tech implosion? I used to dabble extensively in that arena – I do not own any right now or have any plans to in the near future.
Alex, what do you make of the reversal of the reversal in S&P? I stated earlier that I had dropped my shorts – especially with options (time premium would have gotten killed today and then over the weekend) – think we generally go lower but this has been very choppy and not that great drop that we had in August. This morning looks like we are off to the races, then we drop it all, then we just end flat (except NKE and IBB). Maybe staying on the sidelines here is good?
.. you dropped your shorts?
o my…
tee hee
Nice. I should say I lost them. And the shirt I was wearing. I had to sell them to pay for my miner and energy plays. 🙁
Does somebody own Baytex BTE, and does someone know what the reason is that it is going down so fast? Many Thanks.
Weak end of day. Smart money selling in last half hour of week… Sets up big down day Monday. Also, large mgrs will be selling to not have X Y and Z fallers on the books for end of Qtr…
On verra.