Quick Ideas

I just wanted to post a couple of quick thoughts before the weekend.  I will post a couple of charts from yesterdays report, because nothing has really changed there,  and a couple of new ones. 

WTIC – This chart is from yesterday.  That swing low did not hold, and I do not believe that it was a dcl that failed quickly.  I still expect a bounce, but I think that would only be a Dcl, not an ICL in my opinion.  After yesterday we are under the B.B. again. DCL soon.

SPX –  I believe that I mentioned yesterday that with the weakness that I was seeing in the markets,  it would be hard to recommend any bullish trade set ups here.   It is hard to recommend a ‘short’ position too. Why?  Approaching the FED MTG,  maybe we get a rally out of that, even if it just a bounce?   For now I see weakness. (  I showed many sectors in yesterdays report, review it for more weakness shown in the IWM, RUT, XLF, IBB, BKX, etc).

$USD –  Still thinking in terms of  “What is this doing as the fed Mtg approaches?”.  We could get an oversold bounce, but I expect more downside overall.  I’ll have more in the weekend report.

I am being asked about NATGAS from time to time.  In October NATGAS looked ugly.  People would write to me and say that I should turn bullish on NATGAS because winter was coming.   I pointed out that  The biggest drop came in Nov-Feb of a very cold winter last year.

I posted this chart in Oct.

Here we are in Mid December and not much has changed, NATGAS has remained utterly weak and ugly, except that enough time has gone by for an ICL to form.  So yes, in my opinion we could see NATGAS lows soon.

NATGAS – I expect a break of the $2 area and then a reversal shortly after.  I do not want to recommend a long position at this point, because I cannot see tangible evidence that we will see strength.    I know that many readers are looking for a swing low, so all I will say is that it may become an ICL.   Enough time has passed and we are seeing a sudden swift rise in  selling volume too. 

GOLD –  Since Gold is selling off in pre-market, I will leave this chart to show you the price of recent lows. $1045.40 should hold.

My ideal scenario would actually be to see Gold drop heading into the Fed.  I KNOW this would concern everyone that is long, and would greatly embolden the BEARS to go short. If we then turned and Rallied after the Fed, it could be a great move higher. The C.O.T. is very bullish and I still expect a rally out of an ICL, but use stops and remain alert.   Something big is coming and Miners have held up very well. 

SILVER –  Silver just broke to new lows today.  I am not overly concerned, but I did not expect that.  It could be a quick shake out and not a failure. The Silver C.O.T. has not been as Bullish as Golds, but thismay fix it.   🙂

GDX– This is as good as it gets for miners.  With GOLD flirting with recent lows and Silver at new lows, Miners were trending higher. What if GDX breaks that trendline and the 10sma?

It IS possible that GDX breaks its 10sma and trendline and heads down into the Fed Mtg.  Why?  A daily cycle low does just that, breaks a trend line and the 10sma.  Then we look for the next daily cycle with a break of the 10sma higher. I already covered this yesterday, so this is the chart that I used to show one possible bullish scenario.  I mentioned that you could sell positions and see what happens if GDX breaks below the 10sma, while some may want to just keep holding individual miners.

So it is Friday, lets see how things end going into the weekend.  Also we will see how things unfold 1 day closer to that big fed Mtg.  Have a great Friday and weekend!

~ALEX

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For IRVIN –  I just wanted to point out a possible target that you can keep your eye on if AWK continues to sell off.  It closed below the 50sma and the weekly ( So far) is closing below the 10ma.  It actually looks like a double top now and  it could have more downside and with the weaker markets .  This updated  chart may help with your next entry if you choose to do so.   I would watch for a possible move to the 200sma.