Energy Bull?

I want to discus a few things in todays report, and then I will have a small ton of charts & Set ups in Energy and Commodities.  I will start with the markets and their nice run higher lately. I did mention that the IWM, TRAN, and the IBB  looked to be lagging a bit.   IWM had a bullish set up and popped higher, but it hit another short term resistance area. I wanted to see a pop higher if it is going to possibly play catch up. 

This was the IWM at that point on Oct 30.  I expected a break higher.

IWM Nov 3 –  We got he break higher ( Note: We may back test that break soon). 

Lets look at the NASDAQ before we discuss Energy, The CRB, & The Precious Metals…

 I pointed this blow off top in the NASDAQ  in an earlier weekend report.  Why?  We still cannot be sure if the markets are currently back testing a break down and going to drop soon, or are they going to follow this pattern and break to new highs in a blow off run. The RED ARROW was where we were when I posted this chart below.

I want to examine this blow off run from time to time.

Close up 1999 – resistance at the former highs and then a steady climb higher above the 10sma.

NASDAQ CURRENTLY – Also riding above the 10sma, almost at former highs  (possible resistance) . You can see from the ABOVE 2 Charts that we have plenty of time to go long if we are to follow the 1999 blow off pattern. Right now the NASDAQ is still rising above the 10sma steadily, nearing former highs.

USD –  I was watching this in the weekend report.  Break out or false break out? 

As of Tuesday the USD is rising again, but on a weekly basis still has time to drop or rise further. If the Dollar drops below the blue line by Friday it may continue to roll over.  Bullish for commodities.

WTIC – We got some nice follow through in OIL.  I have been expecting higher prices and keep encouraging the Energy sector for long purchases.  I have listed energy oil stocks in past reports and I will list more stocks in todays report.

I pointed out some Energy stocks popping from recent consolidation.  This PWE chart for example: Notice the follow through yesterday.

I will have a good number of Energy Stocks at the bottom of this report.

GOLD, SILVER, & MINERS

2 Gold stocks –  We broke the trend line possibly to back test/ tag the break out trend line.  That could be our support? End of selling for now.

GOLD – $1103.80 is important to me if I am viewing that as a possible DCL.  I dont want that low taken out.

Please note that GOLD has dropped about $27 in the past 2 days, but…

SILVER – A small drop to the 50sma, volume is not too heavy. Silver is holding up with Golds sell off.  Usually Silver gets crushed.  

I got SO MANY emails about Silvers C.O.T. and how doomed silver is because the commercial shorts are so high. I mentioned before that I use the COT as a guide, but not as a timing tool.   IF we return to the bull market is Gold & Silver, the smart money will be on the wrong side, because they always go short in a rising market.  IF They have to cover? It turns very BULLISH quickly.

GDX – Again, Gold has dropped $27 Monday & Tuesday.  Miners usually get crushed.  Not this time, and this is a normal pullback.

As I mentioned in yesterdays report, I am focused on the energy sector too, because the gains there can be rather strong. Some stocks have already moved 10%+ a day and are up 30% in a couple of days.  VERY NICE TRADES. You can raise your stops and just let some ride if you want, but please be aware of when each company that you are holding releases earnings.  They can drop Pre-MArket with bad earnings.   I also said that I expect Oil to move higher for a couple of weeks, so I am looking at the set ups and consolidations and looking for lower risk entries to try to capture some of those gains.   Lets look at some set ups  🙂

CJES –  How many times did I post this consolidation at the 50sma around $4.80.  Why? Because it just didnt drop with oil dropping and that can be a good sign.  It did a stop run , so I posted this on Oct 28 . Lows were $4.64 as it returned above the 50sma.

CJES CURRENTY – This is suddenly at $5.85 and looks like it has plenty more to go. (EARNINGS AFTER THE MARKET TODAY – SO IT MAY BE BEST TO WAIT)

CRK –  I posted CRK in Tuesdays report and this popped 10% Tuesday, but had earnings pre-Mkt today.  They were horrible.  Lets see how the markets treat CRK .

AREX  is up 20% in 2 days. Earning come out Thursday. 

For the sake of time, I will just list the rest of my charts.  DUE DILIGENCE is in order.  As you can see from the above postings,  earnings for these energy companies has been being released right around now. You may want to get out of a position if you own them or wait to buy them, but Energy does seem to be a good place to get some quick gains. Best Wishes!  

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~ALEX

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BCEI –  Nice base so far, popped 30% Tuesday!!

SGY – Mentioned here n the last run of 100%. Popped 13% Tuesday.

WTI

CPG –  If you bought in August,  It was a double.

ECA  – Almost 100% from summer lows to recent highs too. Supported at the 50sma so far.

BAS –

ERF – Possibly just getting ready to break higher.

EXXI – Held down by the 50sma at one point, it has found support there currently. 

FCG –  Not so much a recommendation, though the set up is fine.  This was requested by one of our readers.

I also pointed out some commodities that I liked the set ups for (  Vale, FCX, CLF, X, AKS, MTDR, MDR, etc ).  X  came out with earnings and got knocked down in after hrs yesterday.  Others still look good.

VALE, FCX, CLF  and some other commodity  companies already reported earnings and their charts look to be improving.

VALE – mentioned in prior reports, it looks to be set up for higher price again. Earnings was already released.

FCX – Earnings released in October already. 

CLF