Riding The Dips

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As expected, the Fed Mtg on Wednesday certainly gave us some dips to work with. We saw both strength and weakness as a result.

SPY –  This was a tough dip to ride ‘real time’, but the markets closed back at the highs.

SPY 10-28

 

I just wanted to point out that The Dow & SPX ( Dow shown below) look like they have possible wedges, but the NAsdaq did too and it broke to the upside and negated it.  The dow held on to the 200sma and looks bullish , so lets look elsewhere for clues.

DOW 10-28

IWM – The Russell 2000 was lagging, but it has turned Bullish .

iwm 10-28

 

$USD  –  Lets make a noteworthy observation here.  The dollar reacted very bullishly to the Fed decision. Whether this break out lasts or fails isnt my point,  my point is …

USD 10-28

 

CRB  –  The  CRB  didnt care that the dollar shot higher.  THAT is noteworthy i.m.h.o.

CRB 10-28

AKS –  And some commodities are looking like they are forming bullish bases and set ups.  See MTDR, MDR, X, AA, FCX,   (Vale?).

AKS base 10-28

$WTIC –  And OIL CERTAINLY didn’t care about the Dollar.  We got our ‘stop run’ and that was a nice explosion, many oil & Energy stocks burst forth higher too. I’ll post a few charts of interest at the end of the report. This is a high volume bullish break out.

WTIC 10-28

NATGAS  is still trying to put in that bottom,  see my public post as a reminder under the “Blog” Tab above. 

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GOLD SILVER & MINERS

 

They ripped higher in the morning, but gave it up after the FED MTG.  This crazy action is what I was warning about in the weekend report and earlier in the week. Now that we have that behind us it looks like they want to find their daily cycle lows. The timing is good for that, but the landing is not clear. I’ll be watching this area,  but the place to be at this time seems to be OIL/ENERGY stocks for some great %-Gains.  Also TECH STOCKS and Small Caps may do well.

 

GOLD -What I wrote on this chart Day 24 or day 9… I do not know what I was thinking – lol.  Sorry.  I THINK I meant that we had a day 9 high or a day 24 high, depending on where you count a DCL.

$GOLD 10-28

SILVER –  I was surprised to see SILVER end the day green. That’s a good sign since it would have been trashed in the past.

SILVER 10-28

GDX – This reversal looks bearish and MIners may be dipping into a DCL.  We will wait for a reversal after it dips down.  Some Miners remained green Wednesday too. 

GDX 10-28

 

LSG – 7% gains at the close.  Some Miners held on to some gains, that is encouraging for the Big Picture / longer term view that I have been discussing. 

lsg 10-28

So as mentioned,  I think that searching for some low risk entries on Energy would be a good idea . The gains off of their lows have been exceptional. Let me post a couple of chart ideas below. Your stops would be below yesterdays gains  ( Or higher if you cant afford any losses.  Some do like a real tight stop). 

 

***  Check Yahoo Finance or another source to see when the next earnings report comes out for stocks that you own or want to buy!Due diligence pays off.

CJES –  This one really hasn’t done much lately, but I still feel that a break from this consolidation will be rewarding  ( Watch for earnings, I’m not sure when it comes out).

CJES

REXX

REXX 10-28

EXXI

exxi 10-28

NOG

NOG 10-28

MPO –  I found this and loved the potential, but I’d imagine that some  risk is there too. A return to May prices is about 200% gains  🙂

MPO 10-28

 

So those are just a few ideas, I’m sure many have a list of names that they watch too. I believe OIL will start its next run higher and should continue for a couple of weeks, so you dont have to be too picky about entry points. Buy something near its lows or near its 50sma ( beware of earnings) and keep a stop in place.   We’ve discussed  SD, KEG, GDP, WTI, LGCY, BAS, CPE, GTE, PZE and more.   Please excuse typos, I wont have time to proof read this.   Happy Trading!  🙂

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~ALEX

P.S.   As mentioned, I am on the road and apologize that I couldn’t get this report out before the market opened.  That is always my goal, Thanks for your patience.  With  yesterdays action,  I really needed to get a feel for what happened while I was flying and I got in rather late.  I will not have a Friday report, since I expect that this report will still apply tomorrow.  Bullish Energy should not change between now and then.  It will be good to see how the weekly candles close!   

42 replies
  1. Geurt.
    Geurt. says:

    Thanks Alex, @ 1182 I went short yesterday Gold and Dust
    Bought Oil @ 43.00 (long) Nat.Gas still have @ 4.00 Dollars.

    Cason, you wrote: Guert, hope you saw my chart last night (Tues). Also see just below reply to Alex on UNG contract roll. CME Group has the futures prices.
    Thanks a lot I got your message last night. Appreciated your help Cason !!!

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Trying to help where I can. I didn’t like the roll over on bullish inventory data. I can only remeber one other time where we lost 10% or more on a single contract roll and it was Jan 2014, don’t remember anything else like that, which is why I think we have btm soon.

  2. Ray
    Ray says:

    HI
    Anybody has any thought about PWE – has been one of the stronger oil stocks recently – just looking like it wants to go higher out of it’s bull flag – Bill any chart on that one?
    thanx
    Ray

    • Carlnetscouts
      Carlnetscouts says:

      Those and AEM are up on earnings. Juniors are pretty much all down.. Got stopped out of some juniors.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Do you mean how many do we have now? Or how many do we expect on average? It varies – lately Gold cycles have been running over 30 days long, but they can be short too.

  5. Bill
    Bill says:

    Quiet Today, everyone must be worn out after Yesterday? Alex, is that a picture of Missy working out above?

  6. Carlnetscouts
    Carlnetscouts says:

    Gold looks like it’s headed down for a bit along with the miners. Maybe 14-14.50 GDX might be a good entry.

  7. Bill
    Bill says:

    I don’t know if anyone followed me on shorting miners last week? But if you did, its getting time to get out. Here’s my original thoughts on GDX note that we are at the sell 1/2 area. Also, GDXJ has completed its H&S pattern. The only thing I can say about staying longer is my charts of DUST shows more room to rise, and my charts of Gold look like they want to go lower to 1126? So, getting some contradiction. I’ll probably sell 1/2 or set a trailing stop.

    https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GDX/T5TsW4Ze/

    • Cal Staggers
      Cal Staggers says:

      Great call, Bill – just last night I was reviewing your chart showing your target highs & target lows. I, too, wouldn’t be surprised to see lower prices, but it should be an opportunity for folks to get on board who haven’t already

      • Bill
        Bill says:

        Geurt, I made a trade about a week ago in DUST. I hit my first target Yesterday. Look where I have the sell 1/2 note on the link above (not on the shown chart). I am getting contraditory signals so far. DUST could go higher from here, but I’m not a certain as I was when I made the trade. Hope that makes sense?

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          Wow- Dust broke to new lows Wednesday and you held on, from $14 to $11.30 . CRAZY moves on those 3x etfs

          IF GDX drops to the 50sma for a DCL, Dust will keep riding higher. That high volume reversal Wednesday would have been a good buy for DUST

          • Bill
            Bill says:

            Ya, I got trapped on that one. Lucky for me my TA was on. Still holding, I’m concerned here that the miners will reverse before gold. I see gold getting to 1126 then turning up. BUT, I still see the trend down in miners for a while.

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            ABX & NEM looked great with earnings, GG got smoked a bit yeterday on bad earnings. GG may help it to drop a bit more . trailing stop for dust may work on ur second half

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            Gold just tagged the 50sma and bounced and the dollar is falling quickly, but it just CANT be THAT easy. : )

            Best wishes all…I’m Out for the day ( a little disappointed in my energy plays today )

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            Thats a wild ride , Bill. DUST looks like it could go from $11.30 Fed Wednesday to maybe $18 or even $20 if miners continued to drop into a DCL. Those are some FAST moves

            The good earnings on NEM and ABX may hinder the drop on GDX though. IF IF IF the bear mkt ended, They may not drop the way they used to, but entering a 3rd or 4th daily cycle, they shouldn’t run too high before rolling over either.

          • Bill
            Bill says:

            Thats the way I see it too. I think $20 is a viable target. I Do think there will be a small 3rd cycle rally, in which case I may play both sides. Timing is everything. I see gold on day 34, I bet we go to day 36 then reverse. I see maybe 1160 as an upside, not that much. BUT I’d like to lock in profits and not take the loss, then get in again.

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            I just thought of something….If I remember correctly ( I should go back & check, but we are getting ready to leave in a minute) , Gold always sells down on Friday morning, and then starts climbing into the close. If that sounds familiar, just keep an eye on it.

            I can see GOLD $1120 area too, but IF IF the bear mkt ended, it may go sideways to a trend line that I am watching (Refresh)- So it could bounce into the close and then drop again next week
            .

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