Whats Up?
I’ll tell you whats up. The SPX , DJIA, NASDAQ, IBB, IWM, SOX, USD, OIL, OIH, XLE, SILVER, all closed higher and GOLD & GDX were for up for most of the day too. Yes, it was Green just about everywhere except for NATGAS. Lets discuss the points of interest.
This is basically what the SPX, NASDAQ, DJIA, IWM, etc. all looked like.
That looks like a bullish break out, and as I mentioned in Thursdays report, I am seeing signs of bullishness in the Semiconductor Sector. With this break higher, I also see some good looking set ups forming in the Biotech Sector , and now the Tech Sector.
There are many stocks that are now no longer looking like the downside is the place to be. Here are 2 for example:
MU – Bottoming
GPRO – WEDGE with strong divergence.
So things are turning bullish in many area.
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USD – The dollar turned higher, but I think it is just a bounce.
WTIC – Oil put in a reversal exactly where it was expected to. Normally I would be thinking that this is too perfect, but it did break the trend line and could put in a dcl right here. Timing is fine for it.
As a side note : Oil could bounce & drop again back on the 50sma next week for the dcl too, but look at the Energy sector as a whole.
XLE – The Energy stocks seem to be sniffing out the bullishness. This was not a steep pull back, it held at the 9 ema so far.
I pointed out a few ENERGY stocks in Thursdays report, because I felt that things were shaping up and some looked like good buying opportunities. With a reversal in Oil today, it was safe to buy as long as you use a stop somewhere reasonable below your entry. These are just a couple that I posted Thursday morning.
They all held support and were up today, so I skimmed a number of Energy stocks to see if they still look good. I found many that look very good, as long as we keep in mind that OIL ‘MIGHT’ bounce around a bit and these stocks may too. Remember how difficult it was to buy & hold Miners at the turning point, but then they took off and the gains were excellent. Let me show 3 more sector type charts, and then I will add some OIL/ENERGY stock picks that I think look good.
GOLD – It may slow up a bit here.
SILVER – This has been flagging sideways in a bullish manner at resistance. It held the 9 ema.
NATGAS – Still an unreliable mess. I stopped covering this because it just cant get to a point where it shows potential upside. It needs more time.
For anyone looking for Energy stocks, I want to list some out here. I am not saying you must buy these Now, but I have added a few to my holdings. The set ups are low risk, and it’s easy to put a stop below the buy area. Today is Friday, before the weekend, and I know that some do not like to hold NEW positions over the weekend. Some have said, ” I will hold positions that I am already holding gains on, but not new positions. I dont want to worry about a gap down after the weekend.” I think that that is a reasonable plan. If that is you, you can check back to this list and Shop on Monday 🙂
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CJES– Mentioned Thursday at $5.30 ( see chart above). Still a buy here, just a little higher.
BBG – I mentioned this early this morning in the comments as a great set up. Support looks great, where would you put your stop? 😉
QEP – Please look at this base carefully. It is common for stock to base like that and then pop out and run higher. You can buy it in the base too, but now its a buy at support. This did NOT drop with the OIL pullback, so it likely will not if OIL bounces around a bit more.
WTI – THIS is why I wanted you to look at that Base carefully. There is one here too and we saw a strong reversal Thursday. This could be setting up to break out when Oil runs higher.
KEG – Low priced and I like the flag during Oils pullback. If oil has yet to find its DCL, this may hold up or run higher anyway.
GST – This looks like a nice break out from a base. This was an hr before the close, and volume closed closer to 2 million. It is hard to recommend a stock that popped 21% today, because I want you to have a stop right below price. I discussed it in the comments this a.m. as it gapped open with very big volume. That was the buy. If it pulls back you can add it too. I do believe todays pop with OIL down this morning shows that this will run higher from here. It doesn’t have to pullback at all.
ATW – This doesnt look like much , does it?
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It didnt drop during Oils sell off
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It ran from $13.91 to $18.00 in about a week.
Have you noticed that I used to have a weekend report out by Monday pre-market, and then a daily report Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday…and not always on Friday. Friday is the last day of the week and usually Thursdays report covers enough for Friday too. Friday was on an ‘as I see fit’ basis. Well it seems that for quite a while now I have been motivated to write a Friday report , because the Thursday action is compelling. I like this rotating pattern of sectors with nice set ups.
The Energy stocks that I have shown above are good set ups, because they didn’t drop much while Oil just had a solid pullback. This may indicate that they may be under accumulation and somewhat safe. I am eager to see if the Miners hold some of their gains when Gold seeks out its DCL.
I’m now seeing Tech stocks , Semi’s, and some Biotechs setting up too. Bill mentioned in the comments today ( I should call it a chat section, and please feel free to join in ) a Medical stock that I used to watch – Ticker ‘EYES’. I looked at a few others and they are setting up also.
See OREX, CRMD, RPTP, IDRA, ZIOP, TROV, LJPC, PRTA, HALO, etc etc . These all have potential if they are bottoming, and they do show bullish signs. Some may need more time than others.
Have a great Friday and a great weekend!
Thanks for the Friday report. I really wanted a low risk trade. I’m taking your lead with KEG and ANW at the open. Stops just below Yesterday’s lows?
Keg my stop would be below the 50sma ( Thats been holding the past couple of days). ANW you could use $7.50 or yesterdays lows. It is coiling under the 50sma and looks like it wants to break above it.
If it continues coiling for a few more days, it may break yesterdays lows since the 50sma is sloping downward.
I didnt draw it out, but ANW looks like an inverse H&S forming too.
I hate selling low! Who doesn’t! If we are confident in the energy sector, maybe just a mental stop here. I got stopped out of NUGT twice on this last run, there was never a good spot to get in again.
Yeah, that may be best too. It’s tough buying lows because they get shaky , but then when you start to get those straight up moves with only 1 0r 2 day pullbacks like GDX & Miners just did, it doesnt allow you to get in low risk. Then off it goes higher.
In fact, GDX just went green – still no significant pullback.
where would you buy GDX on a pullback? thanks
I think its getting late in the timing for me to chase the miners. I see the upside in Gold between 1200 and 1236. We’ve already hit 1191. That might be as high as it goes.
I cant give solid advice on buying something in the middle or near the end of a solid bullish run. I can only give you a list of the things that I consider before entering. And I give this with no recommendation, because the risk reward is 50/50 here.
1. In the past 13 days, GDX has moved almost straight up. Can it keep going? Yes, possibly to the 200sma, but the pullback could also be 50% of that run or more.
2. I think the 200sma is a reasonable target before a bigger pullback to a Dcl or we could see a drop & double top and then down to a dcl.
3. The 8 or 9 EMA has held price and since it is rising, the buy would be today or Monday with a stop below the the 13 ema. ( There is a gap at the 13 ema, )
The next best entry would be the next DCL
KEG down 6% already, ANW up 1%
Interesting spike on ANW – might be sign of movement to come.
ANW up 3% today. Nice run on this one anyway.
Broke above the 50sma and looks to have pretty good volume. It’ll be nice if it closes there.
Keg still holding above the 50sma.
KEG at the 9 ema, fingers crossed.
Alex, Unfortunately I bought KEG pre-market. Down 8.5% already, doesn’t take long. However its at the 9 ema. Would you sell if it breaks below?
Bill, definitely understand. I bought GDP earlier in the week which meant it had to go down instantly (sorry to anyone if I ruined their trade by jumping in). If I had had a hard stop at the 9EMA, I would have been stopped out for a loss twice already. It dropped and recovered yesterday and today. Sure, it was only up marginally today, but that’s better than down and below moving averages.
Not sure why some (GDP, Stone, XLE) recovered (at least we’re negative) while BAS, KEG got slaughtered with crude up. They reversed nicely yesterday so I was surprised by the harsh giveback today, expected momentum to continue.
I’m following CF on the crude oil, so I’m giving them more latitude than I normally would. BAS is hopping around 10% a day so if I had a 6% stop well that wouldn’t work out so well for me. So, just giving my perspective. I might recommend using much looser stops but then also going with smaller position sizes so if you do end up with a larger % loser (which I sure hope you don’t) then it won’t be a large loser $$-wise.
YGE up 200% in the last 3 weeks. JKS doubled since august. TSL, SOL, FSLR
They had big sell offs, but I didnt see them recover until now.
Sorry CF but have to mention NBG again
By all means, and thx for the reminder. That was a nice slow run up into todays POP.
Alex.
What confirmation do we need that oil has entered a new daily cycle? Did we get a swing today…or is that dependent upon the close?
thx
That is a swing in Oil, but they do not confirm a dcl by themselves. They are a good start.
Oil is tricky because we’ve had 33 day daily cycles and we’ve had 50 day daily cycles. I look for a break of the trend lines. The lower one was broken yesterday and thats a start. The Energy stocks and OiL seem to be holding on support, thats helpful, but time will tell.
Using technical analysis, things look good too
Either this is the wave 4 pullback and Bill and I get our entry tomorrow. OR we’re topping in this ICL – imagine it would be head and shoulders but not evident yet (top of head would have been Thursday – we’d had to drop, rise, and put in the right side over the next week). If we get back to 9-EMA would likely be low-risk even if it’s only a quick 2-day trade. Low-risk, but that doesn’t mean guaranteed to be a winner!
I’d sell at the 200-day regardless, then we re-analyze along the lines of the discussions we’ve been having -> long term bullish or another trip to new lows.