Wednesday March 4th – Feels Like This
.
SPX #1 – We broke the day 57 low and this is now starting to look more like a ’rounding top’, with lower highs and lower lows. Day 67 just seems too long to be all one daily cycle. It’s not impossible for all of this chop to just be uncertainty that clears up, but it seems more likely to continue and then roll over.
‘
.
SPX #2 – That also raises another question. Was day 57, with 6 days higher really the dcl? Or was day 50 the dcl? Was day 38 with 6 days higher to all-time highs the dcl? IF IT WAS DAY 38, that means we are already on day 30 of the 2nd daily cycle today, so that is why it would be good to know, but things are unclear.
.
SPX #3 – The only way for me to believe that this is all one long ’67 day’ daily cycle due to the uncertainty would be to see a break to new all-time highs in what would be daily cycle 2. I will add this however…
I will add this: This choppy drop to new lows is not affecting some of the formerly bullish stocks. AMZN, NVDA, GOOG, etc do seem to be stabilizing, and we still have Rare Earth, Drone stocks, and other stocks not breaking down to new lows also.
We just have to see if the markets can recover or will they continue to be jittery and choppy. Either way, we will eventually get a good buy in the future, but right now things are unstable. That ‘good buy point’ may be the next ICL after the markets cleanse themselves, but we’ll just have to allow it to play out.
.
WTIC was up over 4% yesterday and it can continue to run, but I saw many Oil Stocks drop yesterday, so that might be indicating that Oil could dip lower before continuing the bullish move.
.
No doubt about it, The USD is putting in a convincing move here. That said, we have seen many convincing moves with the USD (see the chart please), so I will just remind you of this one thing…
.
The USD – I said in our weekend report that the USD could run up and test resistance. It is at that point that we’ll see if it has strength to start a recovery or not.
.
GOLD & SILVER – Gold and Silver dropped sharply yesterday. We see a strong looking bounce on these charts, but Gold moving $100 and Silver moving $4 is now common, believe it or not. You’ll see that on Silvers live chart below.
.
GOLD dropped over $200 according to this chart and bounced back a bit. Gold is due for a dcl…
.
GOLD was on day 20 yesterday, so that drop is not unexpected, but the size of it was. I was mentioning that we could start to form a handle at anytime on what looked to be a cup forming. I still think that Gold could bounce and drop again with that dcl due. I drew a possible path.
.
THIS IS A LIVE SHOT OF SILVER: You can see what I mean by Gold moving $100 and Silver moving $4 looking normal. The low yesterday was under $78 and rice is now $86, so that is about an $8 move off of the lows, but this is only day 18 today, so silver should bounce and drop again.
.
GDX follows Gold, so this could also bounce and drop one more time into a dcl.
.
It has been a rough ride in this relentless choppiness. If you are more of a buy and hold, you are seeing choppiness that can be frustrating. If you are a trader, it could be worse.
I want to share something with you now if you short term trade: I had someone write to me and mention, “When I see things moving higher, I buy it. The next day it drops, so I stop myself out. I am losing small chunks of money with each trade, but its really adding up.” I just want to tell everyone here that this is happening to me in some of my trades too. My TGB and WRN trades went south for example. RKLB chopped me out for a loss twice. I call it getting chopped up and it is not uncommon under these conditions, but we need to be careful that we don’t just continue to do that, because it becomes ‘Buying higher, selling lower’. We may enter on the bounce, and the next day we gap down and make news lows, chopping that entry up. THAT DOES NOT WORK over time, and often leads mentally to ‘revenge trading’. Trying to find one trade that hits a homerun and recovers the small losses all at once. It may be best to give it a rest and wait for the choppiness to resolve -or – keep any trading small. Do not go for the homerun yet, in these conditions.
.
So, I know that it seems like this chop will last forever when we watch it day after day, but just like every other time, the markets eventually cleanse themselves and a great buying opportunity appears with many rallies starting to run higher again. That may happen after a deeper sell off though, an ICL, so time will tell. Just think about Bitcoin as an example: How frustrating that must be for those that do not use cycles. They expected BITCOIN $200,000 in early 2026, right? Now they went from $125,000 to $60,000 with months of sideways chop and a drop. More Sideways chop and a drop. We expected it and we also expect a great buying opportunity in 2026 – a 4 year low. After that, Crypto stocks will again double and triple and so on, but for now over exuberance is cleansing itself out. A great buy is coming this year though, and that is likely the case in the general markets too, we just can’t say when. I may discuss that more in the weekend report. For now, keep positions small or sit on the sidelines until we pick a direction other than sideways.
.
~ALEX
.
BITCOIN is gaining a little traction this morning, but I am only expecting it to reach and dance around the green 50sma in the long run. So far Bitcoin is playing out exactly as I expected.
