Tuesday March 3rd
7 a.m. Tuesday NOTE:
Most of this report was written on Monday night, with the exception of Precious Metals and Bitcoin. I wanted to wait and see what was happening with Gold and Silver in the morning. Well, right now things are in crash mode, with the exception of Oil, The USD, and Natgas. So what I wrote in this report was as of last night. Things can improve by the open, BUT IF THEY DON’T, This is likely NOT a buy the dip open. Markets hate uncertainty, and we have that now. Yesterday the DOW futures were down 500, yet it went green at one point, and so did the but SPX, but that may or may not happen today. We need to see how this plays out next.
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So what I wrote below was written on Monday night until you reach GOLD, SILVER, and GDX. Even now, with the NASDAQ sell off, those dcl lows are not taken out yet, and its starting to bounce, so we’ll see if it can recover again, or not.
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SPX – With the weekend attach taking place in Iran, the futures sold off hard on Monday. At the open they gapped down and then buyers stepped in and they worked their way back up. The lows were not broken, so this daily cycle (2nd) Stayed alive.
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NASDAQ – That large gap down was VERY close to breaking the recent lows, but as soon as the Nasdaq opened, buyers pushed it higher and we actually have a bullish engulfing on the Nasdaq day 9.
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AT THIS POINT I WANT TO MENTION THAT THE FOLLOWING CHARTS OF RARE EATH AND DRONES WAS WRITTEN ON MONDAY NIGHT. THEY LOOKED GOOD. THESE COMPANIES ARE ALSO NOW DOWN WITH THE MARKETS IN PRE-MARKET, SO WE NEED TO SEE HOW THEY HANDLE THE MARKET SELL OFF TOO. I wouldn’t just buy the dip if they open down, until we see if the markets are breaking down or just choppy.
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In the weekend report I showed weekly charts of TGB, WRN, AA, etc., and this was one of them, but I forgot to include the weekly of UAMY.
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UAMY was actually up 21% last week, and with the Iran attack, I was expecting to see Defense, Drones, and Rare Earth / Specialty metals do well, and I mentioned that in the live comments at 9:40 am…
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USAR was ‘lagging’, up 2% so I posted this one as it held at the 50sma.
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USAR closed up over 10%
UAMY added another 20% Tuesday, and as mentioned in past reports, even though this may get choppy at times, it should try to make a run for prior highs..
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ONDS (Drones) was set up on a trendline last week…
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ONDS – These drone stocks DID run swiftly, but we did see some profit taking or selling into the end of the day. ONDS was up 20% by 10 am, and it didn’t ‘gap’ open too much, but it did sell off later.
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ONDS closed up 5.85%, but it was obviously a pop and drop. This CAN still go higher, and under the current circumstances, I think that it should.
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RCAT was a good set up last week too, and I have been pointing these out.
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RCAT was up 30% in the morning, but it sold off to ‘Up 17.34%’. We have seen these times where price runs up and then there is profit taking, but it can still continue higher. We’ll see.
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URANIUM STOCKS Looked good, so I also mentioned them in the morning.
URG crawled along the 50sma and was up 3% after the open. It ran up 5%, closed up 4.19%
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UUUU -has consolidated after a January rally, and that looks like the right side of a cup and a handle has now formed. I posted this after 10a.m. This closed up almost 10%.
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DNN – So the Uranium stocks do look set up to move higher.
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WTIC – With the unrest in the Middle East, Oil really popped on Sunday, but it sold off and bounced around and by the time the US markets opened. It is possible that Oil will chop around a bit and consolidate, so I drew an example of that here. Oil still looks bullish and Oil stocks do too.
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THE USD was stalling and chopping under the 50sma, and it finally surged above that 200sma on Monday. It has done that twice before but was unable to hold the gains, so we’ll see if it can move higher from here over time.
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GOLD 6:30 am – Gold is on day 21 and it is down over 300 points from the day 20 high! Recently I have been saying that as Gold gets up to the former highs, it may begin to form a handle. It MIGHT be doing that here, but it has a pretty big drop taking place here on day 20. This also could make its way down to the yellow 50sma to put in a dcl. The Miners have been following Gold lately.
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SILVER 6:30 am – Silver dropped from $96.35 high on day 16 to $77.93 today ( -$18.42 from the recent top).
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GDX DAY 20 today – I also mentioned that we could form a cup here, followed by a handle, but with the large drop in Gold and Silver today, a handle may not form. We may just see a drop into a dcl from here that leads down to the red line (50sma) or maybe deeper, depending on how many days we spend chopping lower. The GDX actually hit 105 at 6 am. and that would already be a gap down to almost the 50smna (the red line).
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With the recent outbreak of War, the markets are getting even more choppy.
I am seeing a sharp selloff in the premarket in The Precious Metals (a dcl is coming due, but the selling is sharp). I also see selling in the General Markets. In the past we have seen things crash overnight and then gradually improve by the open, but will that happen now with the uncertainty of war lasting for weeks and maybe more? We will have to wait and see as the morning goes forward. Right now, I’ll be watching those dcls in the general markets to see if they are broken or if they are untouched after the open. We already had uncertainty with the weakness in some areas of the economy and that caused choppy markets. The markets do not like uncertainty, so we’ll see how things unfold with a new war has developed in the Middle East.
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN – Bitcoin has popped a couple of times, but it lacks follow through. This is not unexpected, since we saw the same thing during the last intermediate cycle.
