The thought that came from the Fed Mtg was that the economy looks to be doing ok, but inflation bumped up with the War & blocked Oil supplies, tariffs, etc. It is now believed that we may not see a rate cut until December 2026. The markets and Precious Metals sold off into the close.
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THE SPX actually did sell off and made a new low (Slightly), so it is now sitting right at the 200sma, and this appears to be day 40. We could see a shake out with selling below the 200sma today – or – we could see a reversal.
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We have mixed markets again, because the IWM did not break to new lows (yet?). More selling could bring it to the 200sma.
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THE SOX is holding up better, but now the cycle count doesn’t make sense from November lows to now. That last low was on day 22 and seems too early for a dcl. The SOX should break that day 22 low to give us a full daily cycle.
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WTIC – Oil is strong due to the war situation and shortages. If this is only day 21, Oil has more time to chop around and it could continue chopping higher. Oil stocks are mixed, with some continuing to lag.
REMINDER:
THE USD made it through my first area of resistance and is at the next line. THIS could cause the USD to ‘pause, chop, and drop’ a little. If it does, Gold could chop and pop higher, and it IS due for a dcl.
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THE USD reversed at that resistance and is now chopping along under it.
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GOLD dropped sharply with the Fed Meeting and lost the 50sma support. We are due for a dcl, which usually comes around day 32, but Gold and Silver definitely didn’t like the idea of no rate cuts in 2026.
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GOLD LIVE 7 am – The selling continued overnight. This should not break the recent slam down lows and if it does, that is a big sign of weakness.
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SILVER did not look as bad as Gold, but it sold off too.
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SILVER live at 7 am, and the selling here is deep too.
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THE MINERS sold off with the metals and The GDX ETF broke below that uptrend line that I pointed out yesterday. Miners are now showing lower highs and lower lows. We should bounce and if you never lightened up yet and have changed your mind about holding through an ICL drop, then you may get a bounce to lighten up.
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KGC – Again, even the formerly strong Miners like KGC, IAG, HMY, etc are breaking down, giving us lower highs and lower lows.
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EGO looked to be forming a triangle, and it has now broken to the downside, so the Miners are experiencing more selling over time, despite earnings with Gold above $5000/Oz.
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The General Markets have been due for a dcl, but their daily cycles can run long, so we’ll just have to wait and see how long the post Fed selling continues. I have seen the markets sell off on Fed Wednesday, only to turn higher late on Thursday with a reversal candle. That may happen, since the Feds comments about the economy were relatively bullish despite the inflation concerns.
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Thinking about the Miners, they are selling off despite Gold being around $5000/0z. Think too about the price of Oil and the costs of energy increasing in the mining sector, and that may begin to show up in future earnings reports. I do expect Gold and Silver to bounce, but they can get choppy with a weaker bounce and begin the next selling phase after that bounce and after the second daily cycle low.
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN has been choppy in this consolidation, and it sold off with the markets. That did not surprise me, it is actually playing out as expected, even after regaining the 50sma.
Wednesday March 18th – Fed Wednesday 
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