Saturday March 14th Weekend Report
I have found something interesting with Bitcoin that I will show as a new idea in this report. First let’s cover the markets.
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SPX: I have divided our ’rounding top’ into 2 medium size daily cycles, and now we broke the day 33 on day 37. That is a normal length for a daily cycle too (Some get up to 50 days), so we may have that next dcl at the 200sma area. The 2nd daily cycle is very Left Translated, peaking on day 6, so we are plagued with weak choppy markets. We should get a bounce out of the next dcl and…
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SPX – Unfortunately, that bounce out of the dcl should also be L.T. and then roll over, something like what we see here. This would be a mild drop into an ICL, caused by all of the uncertainty that we see affecting the markets today (War, Inflation scares, Oil prices and those economic ripple effects, etc).
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What about a deeper or steeper drop into an ICL? yes, it is possible with 2 more daily cycles.
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This is just an estimate, not a prediction for The SPX: If the War drags on, Oil stays high and we see more ripple effects continue there, not to mention tariffs/inflation, etc. If we see those things persist, we could get a 3rd and then a 4th daily cycle, each a little over a month or so long.
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Let’s turn to the bigger picture:
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NASDAQ – Using a Log scale we have a lower trend line that steeper sell offs would drop down to. We see the Covid tag, the post-covid rally tag, the April 2025 tariff crash, so I drew in a steeper crash now, if war, inflation, high oil, etc causes such a crash. I am seeing the 18,000 area (roughly) as a possibility. The rally out of these crashes can bring great gains, so we want to be ready to buy the dip if this happens, just like we bought April 2025 right near the lows.
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On an Arithmetic chart, I see The NASDAQ as possibly in a large parabolic curve. Everyone remembers the ‘2000 Tech Bubble’, but this is well beyond those highs. This chart also shows me a possible drop to the 18,000 to maybe as high as the 20,000 area, depending on if it is a crash straight down or if it chops lower over time. You Buy that Dip!
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NASDAQ – On this chart I’m just pointing out the ‘time’ difference that we saw in 2022-2023 and the crash in 2025. One was a bear market lasting for a year of chopping lower. April 2025 was a Feb to April crash. I actually hope that we see that again, but that was a Sharp drop, so get out of the way.
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NASDAQ – Another more close-up view. please read the chart from left to right.
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WTIC WEEKLY– What can I say about the Oils weekly chart? This was a 2 week Rocketship caused by the attack on Iran. There is a promise that this war will not drag on, but will it? So we have a candle of indecision, a Doji Candle, and…
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WTIC – I would say that the direction of Oil will be based on external forces. Please read this chart from the left and then 1-2-3.
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THE USD made it through my first area of resistance and is at the next line. THIS could cause the USD to ‘pause, chop, and drop’ a little. If it does, Gold could chop and pop higher, and it IS due for a dcl.
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IN FRIDAYS REPORT I USED THIS CHART TO SHOW THE CYCLE COUNT:
GOLD dropped with the inflation report and this was day 28 on Thursday with Spot Gold. The lows of $4995 were not broken and I would expect Gold to get down near that area as a dcl.
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GOLD fell within a few dollars of taking out that low on Friday, so I expect a little more downside. Gold often forms a dcl around day 32 and we are close enough.
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GOLD WEEKLY: Gold dropped last week as the USD popped. It is due for a dcl and support tends to be that red 10 week ma. it MIGHT drop to the blue line if the selling picks up, but it has held up well.
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SILVER can drop a bit more and then it also becomes due for a dcl.
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GDX WEEKLY #1 – The Miners fell quite a bit over the last 2 weeks. They tend to exaggerate the move by the metals and you can see that the downside dip here is at the lows of the January drop already. Since I am expecting Gold to put in a dcl and bounce, I also expect the Miners to bounce. Please read the chart…
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GDX WEEKLY #2 – I am thinking that miners might ‘peak’ on this bounce. So, this is just a guess, but it is something to keep an eye on. When I look at that drop over the last 2 weeks, it shows me that the Miners CAN sell off rather quickly after a bounce. 4 weeks up, 2 weeks down and its gone. Please read the chart.
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Bitcoin is below; I hope that everyone is enjoying their weekend!
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~ALEX
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I want to show you something that is catching my attention with Bitcoin. I think that it is quite interesting.
1. I used this chart in November to show that we had ‘peaked’ and also to show that with the 4 year cycle, we often see the 4th year low in the November area the following year. Notice the red arrows with the orange vertical lines, that shows the ‘peak’ at the end of year #3. The pink area shows the drop to the year 4 November area (except the current year obviously)…
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I used this chart on January 3rd to show the same thing. We ‘peaked’ around October and now we were dropping into the 4th year cycle low. It is in that pink shaded area of 2018 and 2022 that you see it bottom toward the end of that year. Please review the chart.
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Now let me show you what I want to keep an eye on, because it tends to indicate a possible change in that.
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This is a current chart of The BITCOIN WEEKLY: We have been dropping and chopping lower as expected. Bitcoin is under the blue 20 week ma, similar to the drop in that 4th year cycle low of 2022. There is more…
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BITCOIN WEEKLY –
1. Notice how similar the drop in 2021-2022 is to this current drop. I put colored arrows there to point out those similarities.
2. The current drop is actually a bit steeper or falling faster though. Does that matter?
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BITCOIN WEEKLY 4 year cycle lows:
1. The same a-b-c type of a drop in 2021-2022 took 7 months, but this one took only 4 months (see the blue boxes). Hmmm? 3 months less.
2. After the 2 steeper drops off of the top, notice how the selling then kind of mellowed out and chopped sideways in 2022 during a 4 month chop sideways and lower (see the magenta boxes).
3. If we do a 4 month sideways chop now, similar to that 2022 magenta box, that only takes us to July. Please take a moment to compare the 2 peaks & drops side by side.
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BITCOIN – I drew in a similar move starting with that green pop that we have in place now, and it leads to a choppy mild dip and a final slam that may only be in the $50,000 area …by July/August.
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BITCOIN WEEKLY – So what I noticed as I looked at the Bitcoin charts was that it seems that the current drop was sharper and steeper this time, so we arrived at the a-b-c low faster. That a-b-c was near where the final low came into place after a choppy/sideways couple of months (kind of a 5 wave drop really). So is that final low closer than my original expectations of Oct/Nov?…
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ALL I AM SAYING IS THAT this is what I am observing, and we have plenty of time to carefully watch how this selloff plays out in 2026. It is still a 4 year cycle low, but it could arrive sooner due to the rapid decline to this a-b-c point? That is a new idea, but it could be foiled if things change and instead, we get another deep drop to $35,000 too, so we need time to allow things to play out. I’ll keep you posted as time goes on.
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There is nothing saying that the steeper drops won’t just continue to October, so stay tuned.
