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SPX – We saw a slightly lower low again, and then a reversal higher. It is nearly impossible to tell if we have a dcl in place or if we are still chopping around trying to form one very late in a daily cycle. Was day 38 really the dcl? If so we have a failed daily cycle, but if not? Is this day 57 of one long daily cycle? It is difficult to identify things with this chop.
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The NASDAQ also made a new low, but it still looks like it may be forming a bullish descending wedge. That would make this all one daily cycle, and it should breakout higher later, if so.
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THE IWM has remained above the 50sma and it looks as though a dcl formed 7 days ago. The IWM, SOX, and DJIA look stronger than the SPX and NASDAQ.
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THE DOW is different too. You see the November break of the 50sma, but no visible dcl appears after that here either.
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I am seeing RETAIL STOCKS, SHIPPERS, and a few other areas still acting bullishly, while other areas chop and drop. WMT, LOW, HD, KOHLS, etc are good examples, and shippers like SBLK, NAT, SB, TK, etc are bullish set ups. I have posted 2 examples below. One retail Walmart and the other a shipper.
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Many shipping charts are starting to ramp up sharply after chopping sideways too. NAT is an example. See the others listed above.
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WTIC – Oil is now chopping sideways, but day 40 plus means that a dcl is coming due. This can dip into day 50 or more. It also can put in a dcl earlier than that. This was forming a triangle or pennant, and it may still be forming a larger one. Oil is still a bullish set up at this point.
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GOLD appears to be on day 10 and I have discussed that this could be in a choppy consolidation for a while.
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SILVER is also chopping around after a massive crash – bounce – drop sequence. Silver has never been able to regain that 10 sma yet.
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The Miners represented by The GDX look much more like Gold than Silver, which means that the Miners could be consolidating and could move higher later. Currently the MACD is NOT following price higher, and that leads me to believe that the chop will continue for a while.
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We started off the week with more choppiness and that makes things difficult, but some areas do seem to be finding buyers. Retail, some industrial stocks, shippers, and the IWM and SOX are still holding up, while the Nasdaq and the SPX dipped into slight new lows. If you are a trader, there are times when we just have to allow things to play out and try not to over trade this chop. If you are buy and hold you could look to buy dips on Shippers, Retail, or another area that is holding up better than the rest. That goes for the Precious Metals too. If you are still ‘buy and hold’ on Miners, you’ve been chopping around and that may continue, but the lows could be in place for the short term. Sometimes there is a time to be an active trader, and other times it may be best to sit on our hands and allow the next good trades to set up or develop over time. There is always another good trade coming, but they can take some time to develop. Choppiness is usually a good time for ‘traders’ to be more cautious, so if you are an active trader like me, it could be a good time to keep position size smaller until we start to trend higher. Enjoy your Wednesday activities.
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN has also been choppy since putting in a capitulation low. We saw this choppiness back in November after a low formed there too, so it may just continue to pop and drop. I do think that we have a chance to move up toward the 50sma, as mentioned in the weekend report, but so far in the 4th year of a 4 year cycle, we are getting what I expected in the bigger picture. A great buying opportunity should develop later this year.
February 14th Weekend Report 
Thursday February 19th
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