Wednesday January 7th
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The bullish reversal at the 50sma of The IWM has been finding solid follow through, and the stocks that we trade or hold are making very good gains. I want to mention that day 28 could be an early dcl, or it also could be a half cycle low of a 45+ day daily cycle. They are not exactly ‘halfway’, they are roughly halfway.
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As the NASDAQ pushes up into that upper triangle to attempt to breakout, the volume is increasing and that is what we want to see. This should breakout now that we are deep into the Apex.
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THE SOX has been stronger, and it broke out to new all-time highs again.
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The SPX is also now at new all-time highs, so we know that the Bulls are in control at this point. With that in mind, I want to show you something…
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Since the Bulls are in control at this point, I want to show you a ‘possibility’. What if this current bull run runs in a similar manner as the one we had in 2025? Let’s take a look…
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SPX – We had our ICL in April, we have our ICL now. After a little over a month we got a dip (orange box), but dcl’s were mild and hard to see after that, right? From that point on, it just climbed up that 20 ema. It was choppy, but the stocks made great gains. So…
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If I add the run that followed in 2025 to the current dip, then this an idea, or possibility of how the bull could continue upward and onward from this ICL. The ICL’s are already different, the April rally started off steeper, so I will say this…
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I will say that no 2 Bull Runs are exactly alike. The 2026 run may be choppier, or it could even do what Gold did and ramp up in more of a parabolic run. It also could become bearish choppiness – depending on many factors. So far, though, the Bulls are running, and it has been good from November to now. I just wanted to show you on the above chart how things could unfold if 2026 is like 2025.
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Yesterday I said:
‘BBAI and ‘AI’ look ready to join the party. BBAI is bouncing along the 200sma, so that could be a stop for a low risk entry.’ The 50 sma is overhead.
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BBAI was pushing on the 50sma, so I Posted this chart in the comments.
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By the end of the day, BBAI was up 9% and it was able to break and close above that 50sma.
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CRML has been in the reports and it ramped up another 25% yesterday. Rare Earth or specialty Metals. Look at the numbers, this is already a big move!
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Ed mentioned OUST in the comments 2 days ago, which was new to me. I looked at the chart and it looks good. It sold off yesterday and then recovered the 50sma, so that 50 sma is a good entry, even though it has already been running higher. Why? Because that was a solid run in November and now we have a higher low and a higher high – a trend change.
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I pointed out in the comments that each day RKLB sells off and then recovers, and it is ready to nreak to new all-time highs already.
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RKLB then rallied and closed up 10%. Hopefully you were able to buy this when it was mentioned in November or at the 50sma back test, or recently. It has been a strong runner.
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ANOTHER RARE EARTH: Another higher low and higher high formed in our UAMY chart. Yesterday it dipped and bounced back off of the 50sma. I like that it help support and this is a buy and hold for me, due to the last rally in September – October. I sold that rally and it just kept going. THAT rally was roughly $4 to $20.
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I also mentioned this Rare Earth or specialty metals stock yesterday, but I want to mention something that I forgot to say:
TMQ trades around 2-3.5 million shares a day lately, but it has 9 million shares short. That means that someone has to buy those 9 million shares back if this starts to run higher. That can push it even higher.
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Yesterday TMQ went red and sat there for most of the day and then suddenly near the close, it ramped up 6%. Maybe that accounted for some short covering, because the volume jumped to almost 5 million. I do think that this has the potential to run higher over time.
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WTIC – There has been no change here, Oil dropped 2.3% on Tuesday.
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There was no change with the USD either. Gold and Silver continued to run higher and this time most of the Miners followed.
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GOLD – I want to share one thought about Golds cycle count. We were due for an ICL. After that Gold formed a cup and in that handle around day 24, it looked like a dcl , because we then ramped up higher again for 17 days. Now we have a dip into day 20 and we COULD be starting the 3rd daily cycle. THIS IS MOST LIKELY, since it somewhat matches Silver, but notice this…
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GOLD also formed a triangle and often when we get a triangle at an ICL, we start the count at the low before the breakout. If I did that, we would have a day 29 dcl, but this would only be the 2nd daily cycle. Interesting. That doesn’t match Silver, but Silver is also very hard to read, due to its’ ramp up higher. Let’s take a look…
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SILVER also has a very mild looking dcl at day 27, and then a 2nd daily cycle with no real deep dips until day 19. So Silver would look like it is starting daily cycle #3. If I DIDNT count that mild day 27 pause as the DCL , we would have 46 days out of the low without a visible dcl, unless I then use day 18. So, cycle counts are just not clear due to the strength of this run.
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I wanted to show now that the Silver stocks like EXK were able to Pop and hold the gains yesterday. Maybe they will start to run again? These stocks stalled for some reason while Silver ramped straight up from $45 to $80+. You can see that EXK chopped sideways in all of December and that was frustrating when you look at Silver.
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GDX has been chopping higher in this channel, but it has been sideways since mid-December. It popped and dropped on Monday, but held the gains yesterday, so that is a good sign.
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Some Miners that were really strong simply chopped sideways recently. Take AEM as an example: If you sold this in October, it is still at that price. Long consolidations can ramp up and run though, so if you want to own some Miners again, just in case they run, you could buy one chopping sideways with a stop.
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NG is still cheaper than Octobers highs, so there are some Miners that have not ramped up when Silver and Gold did, but maybe they’re going to start moving after this consolidation?
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IAG did run nicely higher November to December, but it has stalled out over much of December. I would buy this with a stop though, since it is holding the 20ema (except for the spike).
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SILVER – Again, I want to emphasize that most of the larger Silver Miners did NOT ramp up in November through December like Silver. LOOK AT THIS RAMP UP THROUGH DECEMBER. $50 to $80.
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FSM This week FSM was the same price as it was in October, but maybe now it will run? It looks to be breaking out…
CDE crashed in October from $24 to $14– Silver ran from $30 to $55 by the time CDE released earnings, so you would imagine that earnings would have been great. CDE dropped after releasing earnings though, and has slowly been starting to recover. Buy it as a lagger and see if it plays catch up?
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SSRM did not ramp up when Silver ran straight up either, but was it just consolidating earlier gains? It is very hard to understand why some of these didn’t go straight up with Silver, but this set up at the 50sma looks bullish, not bearish.
HL – THIS is how all of the Silver stocks should be acting with Silvers straight ramp up. Hecla popped and dropped on Monday, but it surged 13% yesterday and held the gains. VERY NICE RUN for HL. Earnings for HL was that gap up in early November.
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The bulls are in control and stocks are moving higher out of the recent lows. There will be pull backs, dips, and bumps along the way, but so far, so good. Some Miners Popped and held their gains yesterday, so we’ll see what happens today. Gold and Silver are down as I write, so I’m watching to see if it is a light volume dip and we’ll see if Miners can hold yesterdays gains. Enjoy your Wednesday trading!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN broke higher on Monday, dipped on Tuesday, and this is Bitcoin on Wednesday morning – it is currently down. It can run higher, but it is choppy and running out of time. I have not been trading this area, since the general markets stocks have been delivering nice gains from the November ICL and out of the recent dip too.
