Thursday January 22nd – Choppy
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SPX – This chart makes it look like we sold off sharply on Tuesday and recovered quickly on Wednesday, but it wasn’t that simple in real time. The markets did rally in the morning, but they sold off midday right back to the lows. They then rallied into the close when Trump announced that he would not add tariffs to the 8 countries that he had threatened over the weekend. This does look like the dcl at day 38, with a peak on day 33 (R.T.).
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THE NASDAQ almost recovered the 50sma too. This swing low could mark the dcl too, if we get follow through higher.
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THE ONLY PROBLEM: IWM and SOX do not look like dcl’s
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IWM-has been strong, and we really didn’t get a deep dip that resembles a dcl here. We MIGHT have had a deeper dip on day 28 that could count as a dcl, but at this point we’ll just see if the markets (SPX & NASDAQ) can rally out of yesterdays low.
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THE SOX has been the strongest and it may just eventually dip lower and back test this break out as a dcl, it’s hard to say. These 4 sectors aren’t always synced up, but they may sync up and all dip at the same time later in time. I have pointed out semi’s like TSEM and MU as breaking out and running strong. AMD then joined them, but it dropped into the ICL. AMD looks like it has started to run again…
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AMD has been consolidating that big burst higher that it had in October. When the markets dropped into the ICL for November, AMD chopped lower and lost the 50sma, but it looks ready to start running again, with 6 straight days higher.
AREC started off in rally mode, so I grabbed this chart when it was up almost 14%. It then…
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AREC then actually remained in rally mode all day, and it closing up about 25% higher. These Rare Earth stocks have been acting exactly as hoped for. That is a Pop, a running correction, and a Pop.
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UAMY was actually red, but it was up 12% on Tuesday and it is also acting correctly. These Specialty Metals / Rare Earth companies were recommended as Buy and hold. They do chop a lot, but they pay off over time so far. This has doubled out of the lows.
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TMC (& TMQ) were also in that category, and TMC Closed up 13%, but was up 22% in after hrs, so these continue to act correctly.
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RCAT popped to the former highs and then dropped, so I posted that maybe it would begin to chop at the highs and give us a handle. RCAT then rallied after trumps comments too, closing up 8%, so now we’ll see if this can just breakout to new highs now (if a market dcl is in place).
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RR rallied after earnings and has a nice base here (robotics).
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SMR finally popped out of that pinched price formation.
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WTIC – Oil moved higher and is at the timing that a half cycle low would have formed, so this has time to move higher.
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THE USD did not really change yesterday.
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GOLD gave us a large rally on day 15 and then sold off after Trumps comments. This is often a topping candle, and it could lead to more selling, but what I have found with Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver is that since the price of Gold really doesn’t ‘close’ here, it can continue higher to that $5000 area.
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SILVER actually sold off on Wednesday as Gold rallied up over $100, but it is now higher on Thursday and remains above the 10sma. Day 16 is starting to get late, but surprises continue to be to the upside.
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GDX– The Miners gapped open big with Gold up over $100, but they sold off with Gold and Silver into the end of the day. Many Miners were red during the day, even when Gold was up, so some selling did occur after the channel breakout. I’m watching that channel.
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We’re looking for follow through higher to start to confirm that a dcl has taken place, IWM and The SOX remained strong throughout the sell off. Oil may be ready to try to break that overhead 200sma, and Gold and Silver are on day 16 of a strong daily cycle, but they could do another push higher to try to get Gold close to the $5000 area and Silver near $100. The Bulls remain in control, despite any choppiness. Enjoy your Thursday trading! 🙂
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~ALEX
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So last week I called for a drop into a dcl, and then a possible rally early in the next daily cycle. I drew it this way on Sunday…
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This may be the dcl, and it aligns with the general markets , so that would make sense. I saw some cryto stocks close green yesterday and most are holding up above support, so they may give us a tradeable rally too. See CLSK, CIFR, IREN, HUT, RIOT, WULF, etc.
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CLSK is an example of a Crypto Miner that bounced off of support and even closed green, even though Bitcoin took a nosedive earlier this week. CLSK looks like a buy at the 200sma area.
